CFB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown: Week 12

by Jordan Vanek (vanekjordan) Last Updated 2024-11-15 19:06:13 Premium Content Part of the product CFB Premium

Using his experience as a former scout and staff member at Central Florida under Josh Heupel, Jordan Vanek takes an in-depth look at the upcoming CFB DFS main slate on DraftKings. Formerly of The 33rd Team and 4for4 Fantasy Football, Jordan will do a deep dive into the best stacks, running backs, and wide receivers before giving his overall thoughts on some slate strategy.

Week 12 provides one of the best opportunities of the season to go contrarian. A large portion of projected ownership in our CFB DFS projections is concentrated on cheap wide receivers, and while some of them are in favorable spots, many of the most popular options are inherently fragile. For example, Chimere Dike is projected at over 30% ownership, but in games where DJ Lagway has played start to finish, he’s attempted just 25 and 14 passes. During those games, Dike managed only 1 catch for 44 yards and 2 catches for 67 yards—performances that won’t help you take down a GPP.

This creates significant opportunity. I’ll be making multiple hand-built lineups in the big GPP because I trust my process, and it has uncovered several plays projecting for lower ownership that I believe can win the slate. In this article, I’ll break down the reasoning and strategy behind my approach. I’ll cover how I plan to utilize each stack, mini stack, and top plays for the slate. Additionally, I’ll dive into coverage tendencies and advanced data points that you won’t find anywhere else.

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CFB DFS DraftKings Picks: Top Stacks, Running Backs, & Wide Receivers for Week 12

There’s enough data available to make predictive analyses about why a team might lean toward certain coverages or schemes against a specific matchup. By studying how these teams have performed against top competition or in comparable scenarios, we can draw meaningful insights.

Single High vs. Two High

Single-high coverage is a defensive scheme where one safety plays deep in the middle of the field, tasked with defending against deep passes and providing over-the-top support. This setup often leaves cornerbacks isolated in one-on-one matchups with wide receivers, creating potential for big plays if the receivers can win those matchups. Teams like Purdue, Notre Dame, Utah, and Colorado frequently employ single-high coverage for its versatility in both pass and run support.

I don’t think Utah will stick to their single-high safety looks in this matchup with Colorado. Instead, I expect them to deploy more two-high concepts, forcing Colorado to sustain longer drives to move down the field. Given Utah’s dominance up front, Colorado’s run game poses little threat, allowing Utah to succeed with a lighter box. Additionally, I anticipate Utah will control the clock, slowing the tempo and limiting possessions to dictate the flow of the game.

In contrast, two-high coverage positions two safeties deep, each responsible for one half of the field. This alignment strengthens protection against deep passes but can leave the defense more exposed to runs, short passes underneath, or intermediate routes along the sidelines—particularly against a Cover 2 setup, where defenders stay closer to the flats. Teams like Baylor, Florida, and Pittsburgh often rely on two-high coverage to minimize explosive passing plays.

West Virginia shifted away from utilizing a lot of two-high safety looks against Cincinnati, largely due to their recent defensive coordinator change. The defense was simplified, with a heavier reliance on single-high looks in that game, which Cincinnati struggled to adjust to effectively. However, Baylor, coming off their bye week, will have had ample time to implement an offensive game plan specifically designed to exploit this shift in defensive philosophy.

Man vs. Zone

Man coverage tasks defenders with shadowing specific offensive players throughout the play, requiring physicality, tight coverage, and elite tracking ability. Teams like Notre Dame, Colorado, and Purdue frequently rely on man-coverage schemes, with Purdue also leaning heavily on single-high safety looks. This combination makes them particularly vulnerable to big plays against high-level offenses.

Purdue has lived and died with their man-coverage looks. Penn State will likely find a matchup they like and take advantage of it in the passing game. I actually think Harrison Wallace III ($3,600) is an intriguing deep target for GPPs and a way to get to this game in a very unique way with Tyler Warren ($7,200) looking like the chalk.

In contrast, zone coverage tasks defenders with protecting specific areas of the field instead of following individual players, though one-on-one matchups can naturally occur when offensive players enter their zones. The primary responsibility of each defender is dictated by the defensive call, prioritizing spatial awareness and teamwork over individual assignments.

Teams that heavily rely on zone schemes—such as Navy, West Virginia, Texas, Pittsburgh, and SMU—are unlikely to deviate from these strategies this late in the season. By maintaining their established identities, they rely on consistency and disciplined coverage to disrupt opposing offenses and limit explosive plays.

Stacks

Tyler Shough ($7,900, QB, Louisville)

Isaac Brown ($6,700, RB, Louisville)

Ja’Corey Brooks ($7,700, WR, Louisville)

Elic Ayomanor ($5,200, WR, Stanford)

Stanford’s defense has been a sieve against the pass, allowing 22 passing touchdowns this season and an average of 9.2 yards per pass attempt. This puts Shough in an excellent position to exploit the matchup, with multiple passing touchdowns likely. Five quarterbacks have already thrown at least 3 touchdowns against Stanford, and those who didn’t still eclipsed 300 passing yards or rushed for a 3rd touchdown. For Shough to have a big day, Brooks will be the key. Stanford struggles to cover boundary receivers, leaving them vulnerable to deep plays, which is where Brooks thrives. As the team’s playmaking boundary receiver, he’s poised for a standout performance.

Including running backs alongside your quarterback might feel unconventional, but Stanford’s run defense is equally poor. Brown is a great option here—he’s capable of catching passes and doesn’t need a heavy workload to deliver explosive plays. An onslaught stack of Louisville against Stanford is a sharp strategy to maximize exposure to a highly favorable matchup.

If Stanford manages to score, it’s likely going through Ayomanor. While he’s not a must-play, Stanford has made an effort to get him the ball recently, and he’s capable of creating big plays with those opportunities. That said, given Stanford’s quarterback struggles, it’s not essential to bring him back in this stack unless you’re looking for a deeper contrarian play.