CFB DFS Showdown Slate Analysis: BYU at Navy (FREE)
BYU at Navy (+1, 48.5)
Depth Charts from Game Notes
BYU
QB – Wilson
RB – Katoa OR Allgeier
FB – Wake
WR – 1. Romney, 2. Hill OR Cosper
WR – 1. Pau’u 2. Epps
WR – 1. Milne, 2. Jackson
TE 1. Bushman (injured and out for year), 2. Rex
K – Oldroyd
Navy
QB – Morris,
SB – 1. Fells 2. Acie
FB – 1. Carothers, 2. Smith
SB – 1. CJ Williams OR Warren
WR(Z) – 1. Mitchell, 2. Mathews
WR (X) – 1. Cooper, 2. Walker
K – Nichols
Team Stats (from teamrankings.com based on last year’s stats)
Rush Offense
Navy averaged 355.1 rushing YPG (1st) on 58.7 att/gm (1st)
BYU averaged 156.5 rushing YPG (60th) on 34.8 att/gm (90th)
Pass Offense
Navy averaged 94.6 yards/gm (128th) on 7.8 att/gm (130th)
BYU averaged 288 yards/gm (23rd) on 36 att/gm (30th)
Rush Defense
Navy allowed 3.2 YPC (11th) and 109.3 rush YPG (9th)
BYU allowed 4.2 YPC (58th) and 168.4 rush YPG (71st)
Pass Defense
Navy allowed 211.8 pass YPG (41st) on 26.2 att/gm (6th fewest)
BYU allowed 235.3 pass YPG (71st) on 31.4 att/gm (69th)
Plays/gm
Navy 67.8 plays/gm (98th) and BYU 72.9 plays/gm (48th)
Preseason SP+
Overall – BYU (53rd), Navy (55th)
Offense – Navy (42nd), BYU (54th)
Defense – Navy (69th), BYU (59th)
Projected score: BYU 29 – Navy 28
Targets (from last year)
BYU
Returning targets: Romney (52), Milne (37), Katoa (23)
Top 3 WR all graduated in Simon (71 targets), Hifo (59), and Shumway (55). On top of that, Bushman, who had 66 targets and was expected to be their top pass catcher is out for the year
Navy
Returning targets: Cooper (21), Williams (17), Mitchell (14) and Warren (9).
Other Notes
BYU was RBBC last year, and this year we get another “OR” with Katoa and Allgeier. Katoa had 85 carries for 358 yards and 4 TDs last season, while Allgeier only played in 2 games as he transitioned from LB and had 9 carries for 42 yards during the regular season but had a nice bowl game with 8 carries for 77 yards.
According to the BYU message boards, Epps may have not traveled leaving BYU even more thin at WR so that is something to monitor tomorrow. The other injury situation to monitor is CJ Williams for Navy as he missed lots of camp, but the OC thought he’d be able to go.
For Navy, the run game last year broke down as follows: Perry dominated carries with 267 followed by the 2 FBs in Smith and Carothers combining for 213. Williams led the slotbacks with 54, followed by Maloy (not playing) with 32, Makekau (not playing) with 24, and then Fells with 16.
BYU returns all 5 starting offensive lineman. They lose 2 DL but return their top DL at nose tackle in Tonga who is an NFL prospect. They lose 1 starter at LB and 2 starters in the secondary.
Navy returns 2 OL, and 7 starters on defense, including their entire secondary. The big loss is Malcolm Perry, who topped 2000 yards and made the Dolphins 53 man roster.
Dalen Morris entered the competition as 3rd string but jumped Perry Olsen and was named the starter. Morris is a senior, who has never started and never taken a meaningful snap in college as he’s never thrown a pass and has 5 carries for 20 yards. He was listed as a prostyle QB out of high school, ran for 512 yards as a senior, and his offers appear to have been from Navy and Alabama A&M. So basically we’re flying blind here as we haven’t seen him at all, but I would obviously expect a step down from Perry.
As far as kickers go, Oldroyd was 16/24 on FGA with a long of 54, and 40/41 on XPs. Bijan Nichols was 12/17 on FGA with a long of 49, and 61/62 on XPs.
Showdown Analysis
We start the showdown year off with a slower pace game as we get a triple option Navy team that pounds the football and really slows the pace of the game. Teams like Navy are tough for showdown as their volume is very concentrated and then they tend to lower the number of plays the other team runs. That being said after all that 2020 has thrown our way, I’ll take any college football showdown game we get.
I think the first big decision point is clearly what to do with the Navy QB, Dalen Morris, who is priced all the way up at $14,000 on DK, which means that if you captain him then you’re eating up over 40% of your salary cap. Last year this was an easy decision with Malcolm Perry as you just plugged in Perry and moved on as he could go for 200 rushing yards and 3 TDs, whereas we don’t know what type of athlete we are dealing with in Morris. In reading the interviews on why he won the job, the coaches mentioned him making all the right decisions in the triple option reads and adding a little more to the passing game so while he’ll obviously be a capable runner, I’m not projecting him as an elite runner like Perry. There’s also the issue that I’d ideally like to play both QBs in this game and playing Morris at captain with Wilson doesn’t leave much wiggle room as DK basically priced Morris like he’s Perry. In single entry or cash games I’m fine using Morris at captain simply because using a Navy QB offers so much volume security on a slate without a ton of security, but for multi-entering GPPs I’m planning on going underweight with Morris at captain on DK and instead just using one of him or Carothers in the utility. On FD, this is less of an issue as you can easily get Morris and Wilson in there together so that seems like the clear way to start builds with one at MVP.
As far as who I am looking to captain, I like Wilson as he offers some running ability, has an experienced line returning, and Navy was just average against the pass last season despite not facing many attempts per game. BYU did lose almost all of their receiving production so there is uncertainty as to who the top receiver is, but there is a ton of volume available and the prices are fair so you can pair him up easily with his pass catchers. Outside of Morris/Carothers for Navy, I think the BYU passing game offers the most volume as BYU was RBBC last year and then listed two RBs atop the depth chart this season. That means I for sure want to grab one of the BYU pass catchers, and 2 is fine on DK, as BYU is thin at both TE and WR (especially if Epps is out too) and there is a ton of volume available. Romney would be my top option, but Pau’u and Milne would be in my player pool in multi-entry and are fine options. Rex is stepping into the starting job with Bushman out and has been getting solid reviews so he’s a solid cheaper at $4,200 on DK and $8,500 on FD. On FD, Pau’u jumps out as the top cheap play at just $7,000. If Epps in fact didn’t travel then guys like Jackson and Keanu Hill become a little more interesting on DK if you’re multi-entering but still definitely fall behind the starting WR and Rex for me. With Bushman out, the BYU 247 moderator thought Pau’u and Hill getting more run flexed at the Y WR would be something we could see more of. In the big $12 GPP on DK, I like taking some shots with a BYU pass catcher as captain to open up cap room so I’ll take some shots with a Romney or Pau’u.
Back to the Navy side, the only safe volume is with Morris and Carothers as there isn’t big volume with the slotbacks and obviously not with the WRs. On larger slates, I typically make a lineup building rule where I only play 1 of the QB and the FB on triple option teams as you really need one of them to get the majority of the redzone TDs. With a showdown slate that same rule doesn’t necessarily apply, but with the DK price on Morris and Carothers I’ll just play 1 in a lineup. The only way I’d look to both is if you’re building for a Navy blowout, but I’m expecting a closer game. The one difficult thing with triple option teams is that you don’t know how teams are going to defend them in terms of taking away the FB dive or try to take away the QB. We saw this on Saturday as MTSU focused on the QB and the Army FB got loose for 3 TDs. Carothers can really move for a FB and had some big games last year so he’s certainly a viable option on this slate as pivot from Morris but I view him more as a GPP play as I’d lean towards Morris in cash games.
So my builds would start with one of Morris/Carothers and then Wilson paired up with at least 1 pass catcher. Beyond that things get murkier as we have the Navy slotbacks and WRs, and then Katoa/Allgeier for BYU. The BYU running game hasn’t been good recently and we get the dreaded “OR” tag. Katoa is the better receiver and saw the most snaps last season so I’d use the passing game work as a tiebreaker and lean towards him, but the BYU running game has been tough to predict for a few years now. In the bowl game last year, Allgeier was still listed as a LB so wasn’t in the player pool but then suddenly got just as many carries as he had all season. The upside here is that BYU returns their entire offensive line, but the problem is that it’s just not a certainty whether Katoa or Allgeier get more work. As far as the Navy slotbacks and WRs go, the Navy camp is saying Morris could be a boost to the passing game. I think that’s all relative as this is not a team who throws so we’re still looking at a bad passing offense with low volume. An improvement for Navy passing could still mean 120 passing yards per game. At slotback, if CJ Williams plays then things are tougher to read, but if he sits then Chance Warren starts to look nice as it sounds like Navy wants to get the ball in his hands some as he saw some work at QB prior to moving to slotback. At $3,400 on DK, he’s one of the few viable sub $4,000 options, and then Fells is the super cheap option at $1,800. At WR, I’ll lean towards Cooper over Mitchell, and I’d put in a rule on 1 max there. Both the slotbacks and the Navy WR are low volume and dependent on big plays so I’ll probably limit my teams to a max of 1 slotback and 1 WR in my builds.
I’m typically team no kicker on CFB showdown slates as I think they go over-owned due to the NFL showdown mentality, and CFB tends to have higher scoring games, less reliable kickers and tends to rotate WR more. However, this game we get a lower NFL like Vegas total and concentrated volume on the Navy side so using a kicker is viable as a last piece.
To sum it up, I’d start my builds using of one of Morris/Carothers, with Morris the preferred cash game option, then Wilson for BYU paired up with one of his WRs. It’s not safe but on DK in GPPs I’ll go underweight on Morris at captain due to his price. In terms of value, Pau’u jumps out on FD at $7,000 and then I’ll go with Rex on DK at $4,200. In terms of roster breakdown, I’m expecting a closer game so more balanced builds, but with a tilt towards BYU as their offense is less concentrated. For injuries, we are monitoring CJ Williams who missed portions of camp and then Epps, a backup BYU WR, who per BYU message boards may have not traveled.
Image Credit: Imagn