CFB DFS: The (Thanksgiving) Leftovers
With such an exciting day of college football taking place on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, I thought it would be fun to take an in-depth look at the slate.
Warm up some of that leftover turkey and dressing, crank up some college football and spend the day on the couch!
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Boise State @ San Jose State
Boise State – Similar to last year, when San Jose State defense was superb against the pass, this Spartan defense is ranked 31st in the nation. On the flip side, I have them ranked 105th against the run. Brett Rypien mans the helm as the Boise QB, but I think I am taking the running back route in this game. Rypien is solid, however, averaging 308 passing yards per game. The running game for Boise is solid, led by Jeremy McNichols and his six straight 100+ yard rushing games (aside from a game he missed due to injury). McNichols has also scored a TD in every game this year. Yeah, I’d say he has a high floor. If you did go the passing route, then you would want to pair Rypien with Thomas Sperbeck. As the leading WR for Boise, Sperbeck averages over 117 yards per game with eight TDs on 6.9 receptions per game. Those are some gaudy numbers.
San Jose State – Boise State is a solid defensive unit all around. However San Jose State has a stud RB of their own. His name is Tyler Ervin and he averages 5.6 yards per carry this season. It has helped him accumulate 1417 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs, and he even sprinkles in some production through the air. He is very capable of a big day. The passing game is a spot I am avoiding for San Jose. Tyler Winston is out with an injury. The Spartans’ leading receiver is tight end Billy Freeman, who averages a 3.6/42.9 line with five TDs. Joe Gray WAS the QB, but he got injured and missed five games before seeing the field last week. However that was only for a few plays as his fill in, Kenny Potter, ripped off his best game of the year against Hawaii with a 312-yard, three-TD [performance last week. Oh, and Potter ran for 54 yards also. This coming off a 116 rushing game the week before. He makes for a nice GPP swerve.
Iowa @ Nebraska
Iowa – This is going to be a handful for Iowa. Nebraska is ranked 27th in the nation against the run and Iowa really wants to pound the ball. Also this game is on the road for them, so that complicates things even more. Ultimately it’s going to come down to whether or not Iowa is for real with their power running game. A big issue, for fantasy, purposes is the finally healthy backfield. It’s a three-headed monster. Jordan Canzeri got the most work last week with 13 carries. It was LeShun Daniels though with the two early TD opportunities he capitalized on. And lest not forget about the uber talented Akrum Wadley who got a goal line carry along with a handful of other carries. This game may be won or lost by the play of CJ Beathard. Beathard is the QB for Iowa and puts up modest fantasy number (205 yards per game, 13 passing TDs). He did have three passing TDs last week, so he has some capabilities of putting up a decent fantasy stat line for cheap price tag. The clear #1 WR at this point is Matt VandeBerg. That’s not saying much in this offense, but VandeBerg does average 5.1 receptions per game that net him 54 yards each outing.
Nebraska – The Cornhuskers are coming off a bye week and it came at a good time. They should have a healthy and fresh Tommy Armstrong and Jordan Westerkamp in this game. They will be playing this as their championship game, with a chance to knock off the top team in the conference with a full two weeks to prepare for it. Armstrong is an adequate passer (2560 yards/21 TDs), but his scrambling ability make him interesting from a fantasy perspective. I mentioned Westerkamp, who leads the team in receptions (61), yards (833) and receiving TDs (seven). This is a tough matchup, but he is a stud who should be fresh and heavily involved in the game plan. It’s a great combination. The running game has disappointed all year long and now has a difficult task against this defense. I am personally avoiding Terrell Newby, and he is the only option worthy of a possible roster spot this weekend in this backfield. He does have a 5.26 yards per carry average and five TDs, but this defense is a different beast.
Marshall @ Western Kentucky
Marshall – The first thing we look at is going to be the Western Kentucky defense. They rank 109th vs. the pass and 58th vs. the run. I would also suspect that the run rank is higher than the actual strength of the run defense due to the running game of the opposition being abandoned so early in many games this year. I believe this is a double check mark for the Marshall offense. Marshall averages 33 points a game. They run the ball 50.66% of the time so they have great balance on offense. The spread is only 10.5 in WKU’s favor, so maybe not a blowout in this contest. In the running game, the name that would have been at the top of everyone’s list heading into the season was Devon Johnson. He has been injured though, and didn’t play last game. Last game it was Remi Watson (11/97/2) and Hyleck Foster (12/67) filling in for him. The passing game may also be an option here for Marshall, and one less troublesome. Chase Litton is averaging 240 yards passing per game and has 20 TDs in nine games. He is a solid target in GPPs due to lack of name recognition. When he does connect on passes, his #1 target will be Davonte Allen. Allen has a nice 12.96 yards per reception this season and leads the team in receptions and receiving yards per game, although tight end Ryan Yurachek leads the team with seven receiving TDs.
Western Kentucky – This is all about Brandon Doughty and his receivers. Doughty is going to be your safest option on just about any slate. His main targets are Taywan Taylor (6.2/104.6) and Jared Dangerfield (5.8 REC/7 TDs). On the ground, I have no issues with a solid runner like Anthony Wales on this slate. He has six TDs in eight games, but got vultured last week by Ferby. That always stinks but hopefully is was a fluke thing. This is your stud team on the slate.
Miami @ Pittsburgh
Miami – Last week, once again, was a disappointment for Joseph Yearby. He score a TD (six rushing TDs), but had only 13 carries for the second week in a row. Pittsburgh comes in with a below average run defense, ranking 60th in the nation, but I think Yearby is just a GPP play at this point. The Pitt pass defense is decent on paper, ranking 27th in the nation, but I have also seen them got rocked against Louisville and Notre Dame recently. It would be hard to put too much faith into Brad Kaaya at this point, but he does have back to back 300 yard passing games. He just doesn’t find the end zone enough for me. With Kaaya being hard to play, it stands to reason that his wide receiver are a fickle group also. I would lean towards Stacy Coley (4.6/66.7/.33 per game), but they are a tough group to invest in this week.
Pittsburgh – Miami’s MO on defense is solid vs. the run but bad vs. the pass. That bodes well for All-Everything wide receiver Tyler Boyd. He is just as solid as they come despite the lack of solid personnel around him. He averages eight receptions a game, and he grabs over 37% of the target share for this offense. He is the sole wide receiving option would play for this team. It’s not worth stacking Boyd with his QB, because Nate Peterman has only averaged 183 yards per game this season. Boyd is best used solo. Qadree Ollison is interesting because he has had 54 carries the last two weeks, both game went well over 100 yards and resulted in TD’s. I think he deserves some minor attention on GPP teams this Friday.
Missouri @ Arkansas
Missouri – Once again last week, Arkansas lived up to their statistical numbers as one of the worst pass defense in college football by getting shellacked by Dak Prescott. Unfortunately this is the irresistible force vs. the immovable object, as the Mizzou offense is a thing of ugliness. Freshman Drew Lock is the QB on this team and he is putrid with his 5.3 yards per attempt and less than 51% completion rate. The matchup is good, but I am avoiding this passing game this week (and every other week). There is no clear cut #1 RB, as both Russell Hansbrough and Ish Witter average around 10 carries per game. Perhaps Hansbrough is finally establishing himself as the lead back with an average of 18 carries over the last three games. He only has one TD on the year though, so the prospects do not look great for either back.
Arkansas – Missouri is a sound defense and one that I usually don’t pick on. It is interesting to see that Arkansas QB Brandon Allen now has two games (in the past three contests) which have resulted in 400+ yards and 6+ TDs; that is amazing for such a bad offense. Clearly the guy has upside in the right game environment, but I’m not rolling with him or any one of his wide receivers this week. The ground game is where Arkansas really wants to live and Alex Collins is a solid one. Seven out of his last nine games have resulted in 100+ yard, and his 14 TDs in 11 games is a great number. He deserves some GPP love this week.
Navy @ Houston
Navy – Houston doesn’t scare me off of any matchup really, and there should really be very few instances when you wouldn’t think about playing some of this rushing attack each week. It’s basically matchup proof with it style in the smaller conferences. We will get into the QB later, but for now let’s look at the other running backs. Basically you could take a chance on Chris Swain in GPPs. He is worth a gamble in those formats with his 16 carries a game for 82 yards. However, inspecting his consistency, you will see that in 10 games this year, he has five salary worthy performances and five duds. Basically he is a 50-50 shot at a good game or a crapper. The Navy offense revolves around Keenan Reynolds. He doesn’t pass much, and is terrible when he does, but he does average 100 yards rushing per game this year. He has 18 TDs in 10 games, which is remarkable for a QB.
Houston – As a Cougar fan (Galveston native), I know the disappointment I feel after the UCONN loss. I can only imagine that is magnified for the players. This would have been a battle of undefeated and an opportunity for the winner to go without a loss and into a New Year’s Day Power 5 bowl. Now the stakes have lightened substantially for the Cougars and I worry about that for their psyche. Houston is going to be a team that you must track up until game time. Greg Ward didn’t play last week, although he appeared to be on track to play. That scares me if I’m thinking about him this week. Also Kenneth Farrow is questionable after leaving the game against UCONN. This team is physically a mess right now and the one big name that is typically trustworthy, that doesn’t appear on the injured report, is Demarcus Ayers, and his 7.4 receptions, 89 yards per game average. Navy defense isn’t gifted with talent, but the offense for Navy is fourth in the nation at time of possession, 93rd at pace and because of this the defense only allows its opponents to run 66 plays per game (18th in nation). Houston is top 20 in plays per game, averaging 80.2 this season. This could be a difficult spot for the Cougars to make offensive noise if Navy can control this game on the ground.
Washington State @ Washington
Washington State – Believe it or not, the Washington defense is for real. They rank top 25 in defense vs. both the run and the pass. They are only giving up an average of 18.5 points per game this season and that is through 11 games, so they have played their conference schedule with the exception of this last game for them. However it is a big one, with an offensive juggernaut. This is typically where I give you the Luke Falk is an easy pick speech, but he is on the injury report this week after leaving last game so check his status. If he can’t go, then we are looking at Peyton Bender to fill in. Not much data on bender as he has played bits and pieces of games, but his total line is 17-33 passing for 210 yards and two TDs with two interceptions. He could be a nice piece to use for cheap on some sites where you need salary relief, but I wouldn’t expect the Luke Falk numbers out of him. If he does play then we can downgrade his receivers. I think it hurts Gabe Marks (8.4/97 per game with 14 TDs) the most as he has the most to lose. Not only are we worried about a downgrade in skill level for the QB, but we also don’t know if the QB has a favorite target that he may pepper in this game. We already know that Marks and Dom Williams (10 TDs) were the favorites of Falk, so this injury hurts them. Once again, I am not a fan of running back from this offense, but if you need the name of the best option then it is Gerard Wicks and his 50 yards per game with three TDs.
Washington – Wazzu does play good pass defense, ranking 107th in the nation. They look better, on paper, vs the run, but I am sure those numbers are tainted by game flow. Jake Browning is the Washington QB, but his numbers are very pedestrian. He has thrown for 16 TDs in 10 games and offers minimum production in the run game. It’s a good matchup, in a rivalry game, but the upside is limited. His favorite weapons are Jaydon Mickens and Joshua Perkins. Perkins has the benefit of tight end eligibility on FanDuel and I like his steady three-reception, 42-yard, consistency. Mickens is a low end option at wide receiver. He has two TDs in 11 games this season. Running back Myles Gaskin has been a bright spot for this team this year. When the game flow is proper, he gets a decent amount of carries. He averages 15 carries a game, but if they can jump out to a lead he can get into the low 20s. He’s not a bad piece to fill in your roster with, although his salary is creeping up there on some sites.