CFB Grind Down: FD King of Campus & DK Cash Bowl - Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-12-30 00:49:45

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Ohio State Buckeyes – O/U 56

Notre Dame

This should be a really fun game as two of CFB’s historical powers meet up. Overall, from a fantasy perspective it’s a game that I’m fairly neutral about attacking, so I’m most likely to gain my exposure to it on DK as it does not include the high scoring UNC/BU, TCU/Oregon games, etc. On paper this is a brutal matchup for ND as Ohio State allows just 3.4 YPC (10th), 127 rushing YPG (22nd), and 176 passing YPG (9th). Their team total of 24.75 points is around 10 points lower than their season average. However, OSU did face only two offenses in the top 50 in total offense (Indiana and Western Michigan), so while I do think this defense is very good, those numbers may be slightly inflated.

Due to the Ohio State defense, I don’t view any ND option as a cash game option, but there could be some GPP potential. Leading that group would be ND QB Deshone Kizer. I can’t stomach his price on FD, but at $7,300 on DK, he’s in play. He’s really improved as the season has progressed and has produced big DK points against some really tough defenses like Stanford (34 DK points), Boston College (24 DK points), Temple (43 DK points), and Clemson (34 DK points). He routinely gets 10+ carries a game, which is always a bonus. His top target at WR is Will Fuller, who is one of the nation’s best. The matchup is certainly not ideal, so he’s not a guy I’m trying to force into my lineups as I’m prioritizing QB and RB, but if you have the cap space then he’s a solid option.

It sounds like C.J. Prosise is expected to be available for this one, but we’re still awaiting final confirmation. True freshman *Josh Adams*performed very well in his absence, so even if Prosise does return I worry about this becoming a time share. Unless word comes down that Prosise is out then this is a situation I’ll likely avoid as the upside against a tough OSU run defense doesn’t appear to be there.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Deshone Kizer, William Fuller, Josh Adams (if C.J. Prosise is out)

Ohio State

Ohio State checks in as 6.5 point favorites with a team total of 31 points, which is four points lower than season average of 35. Like the OSU defense, this Notre Dame defense has been one I’ve mostly avoided as they are 55th in rushing yards allowed per game and 23rd in passing yards allowed per game. They are allowing 4.5 YPC, which is 74th in the nation, and Ohio State is averaging 5.6 YPC on the season, so there could be an edge for the OSU ground game. Ohio State is a run first team that is 10th in rushing YPG so J.T. Barrett and Ezekiel Elliot look to be the best bets if you’re targeting the OSU offense.

The OSU running game flashed their upside in the season finale as they gashed a stout Michigan run defense. Barrett ran for 139 yards and three TDs, while Elliott ran for 214 yards and two TDs. Both have that GPP winning upside, but like the ND side of the ball, this isn’t an ideal matchup so I’d lean to them as tournament options, ideally on DK. Despite the 4.5 YPC allowed, Notre Dame has fared well against some of the top backs they have faced as they held Christian McCaffrey to just 94 yards on 27 carrie, and contained Wayne Gallman (23/111), Jahad Thomas (21/82/1). Between Elliot and Barrett, I’m leaning more towards Barrett as a DK pivot from Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson.

When OSU does take to the air, their top target is is Michael Thomas. He tailed off at the end of the year but otherwise was a consistent source of TDs throughout the year. Jalin Marshall and Braxton Miller have both been very undependable and are deep GPP only options at best.

Elite Options – Ezekiel Elliot (DK- GPP), J. T. Barrett (DK- GPP)

Secondary Options – Ezekiell Elliot (FD), J. T. Barrett (FD), Michael Thomas

Stanford Cardinal at Iowa Hawkeyes – O/U 53

Stanford

This is another ho-hum game from a fantasy perspective and one that can be faded entirely on FD. Both teams average under 67 snaps per game and are solid defensively, so the fantasy upside appears to be limited. Stanford is led by one of the top RBs in the country in Christian McCaffrey, who is coming off of a dominant performance against USC in the Pac 12 championship. In his past 10 games, Notre Dame is the only team to hold him under 100 rushing yards and he averaged right around 30 carries per game over his last four games. On paper this is an elite Iowa run defense as they allowed just 3.6 YPC (22nd) and 121 YPG (16th). They did manage to avoid facing some of the better Big 10 RB in Ezekiel Elliot and Saquon Barkley, and did cough up a big day to the one elite RB they faced in Jordan Howard (22/174/2). McCaffrey is very expensive as he’s coming off that monster game against USC and when combined with the tougher matchup, the result is likely lower ownership. I think some of the other higher end backs are much safer, but this Iowa run defense isn’t as proven as I initially thought, so he’s a potential tournament option at what should be low ownership- but I wouldn’t go crazy.

The Stanford offense revolves around McCaffrey, so their QB Kevin Hogan doesn’t get a ton of volume in the passing game. However, he’s had a nose for endzone of late, both running and throwing, so he’s been fairly productive recently in terms of fantasy points. Iowa’s pass defense has been fairly average but Hogan’s price point is absurd on FD. He is priced like a punt QB on DK, so that would be the spot to use him as he has topped 22 DK points in six of his last seven games. However, this does profile as a tougher matchup than some of the softer defenses he sees in the more offensive minded Pac 12. With Hogan’s low volume in the passing game, the Stanford pass catchers can mostly be avoided, with the exception of Austin Hooper, who gets solid usage at TE.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Christian McCaffrey, Austin Hooper (FD), Kevin Hogan (DK)

Iowa

Stanford hasn’t been quite the defense they were last year but they’re still a solid unit and this Iowa offense is very average. They are similar to Stanford in that they are a run heavy team that doesn’t throw the ball a ton. They are unlike Stanford in that they don’t have that one bellcow back, but instead have three very good backs in Jordan Canzeri, Leshun Daniels and Akrum Wadley. Each has had a big game this season as Iowa dealt with injuries at the RB position. However, Jordan Canzeri is expected back for the bowl game so they will be at full strength. I’d expect Canzeri to get first crack but with everyone healthy, his volume is a little concerning. This Stanford run defense is also nothing to sneeze at, although they did allow 100 yard rushing games to Royce Freeman (16/105/1) and Josh Adams (18/168/1) down the stretch.

C.J. Beathard is somewhat similar to Hogan in that he doesn’t receive a ton of passing volume, but does offer the occasional rushing TD upside. For the most part, he’s really lacked upside, especially against tougher defenses like Stanford, so he’s a guy to avoid. His top two targets are Matt Vandeberg and Tevaun Smith but both have just three receiving TDs on the season and neither has topped 700 receiving yards. Smith would offer the most upside as he does offer some big threat ability averaging 18 YPC. They do incorporate their TE as *George Kittle has six receiving TDs on only 20 receptions, while Henry Krieger Coble is their leading TE in receptions with 32 receptions for 385 yards.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Jordan Canzeri (GPP only)

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Ole Miss Rebels – O/U 67.5

Oklahoma State

This game is very targetable on both the King of Campus slate and definitely the Cash Bowl slate, as it has the highest total on condensed DK slate at 67.5 points. Ole Miss is a pretty easy defense to figure out as you want no part of opposing running games against them, but they are susceptible in the secondary as they are 108th in passing yards allowed per game. That sets up well for the Oklahoma State offense as they have a very poor rushing offense but an elite passing offense that is 7th nationally in passing yards per game.

The issue is that they have a team total of 30 points, which is down from the 42 they average on the year, and they have been a problematic team to target all year. As mentioned their running game should be avoided entirely as their most effective runner has actually been their backup QB J.W. Walsh, as he comes into the game when OSU gets near the goalline. Walsh’s involvement does put a damper on the outlook for Mason Rudolph as we obviously want our QB on the field near the goalline. Rudolph was injured early in their season finale against OU, but is expected to return for this one. Despite the presence of Walsh, he was able to put to together some quality performances and with him being injured last game, he is very cheap. I would double check his health, but given the total, his price and Ole Miss’ struggles against the pass, he’s in play for large field tournaments … you’ll just have to cross your fingers that OSU scores from further out as he’s unlikely to be on the field inside the five yard line.

The OSU receivers were unpredictable for the first portion of the season but then James Washington took over in the second half. He produced nine TDs in his last six games, and topped 100 yards four times. He’s expensive but he’s the WR you want if you’re targeting the OSU passing game. Outside of him, things get murky as David Glidden is their second leading WR but has only scored 3 receiving TDs on the year and Brandon Shephard, Marcell Ateman, and Jhajuan Seales have been entirely unpredictable.

Elite Options – James Washington

Secondary Options – Mason Rudolph (GPP – check health)

Ole Miss

Ole Miss is similar offensively to OSU in that they are a top 10 passing offense, but a below average running team. Vegas seems to like them quite a bit here as their team total of 37 points is right in line with their average of 37 points, which is hard to find on this slate. Oklahoma State has struggled defensively this year as they are 94th in passing yards allowed and 88th in rushing yards allowed. They coughed up some big games to opposing QBs as the backup Baylor QBs combined for 396 passing yards and three TDs, Baker Mayfield accounted for 255 yards and three TDs (in a game where he only had to throw 25 times due to a blowout), Patrick Mahomes had over 500 total yards and five TDs. Even KSU WR Kody Cook, who was forced to play QB, totaled over 200 yards and three TDs. This sets up as a very good matchup for Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly, who finished the year with three straight big games. He’s priced up there with the elite QBs on FD, so he’s more of a tournament option, but he’s entirely too cheap on DK and an elite option in all formats.

His top target is Laquon Treadwell, who has been one of CFB’s elite WRs this season. There aren’t many elite WR on this slate, and he draws the top matchup, so he looks like the top overall option if you are spending at WR. Outside of Treadwell, there is no clear cut secondary Ole Miss WR as Quincy Adeboyejo, Cody Core, and Da’morea Stringellow each have right around 500 yards receiving on the season. If I’m not looking towards Treadwell, I’m actually looking to get exposure to their passing game through TE Evan Engram. He’s cheap on FD at just $2,300 and he’s minimum price on DK, so he really opens up the salary cap to fit a high end RB and/or QB. He’s been largely disappointing this season, but he pick it up down the stretch and is a fine punt option at weak position.

Ole Miss is a run first offense, so their RB Jaylen Walton is a secondary option at best. He’s not a guy that cracks the list on FD, but his OSU run defense hasn’t been great, and the DK cap is once again very tight. He is one of the cheapest starting RB on DK, so he’s a potential option if you need the savings at a flex or RB2 spot.

Elite Options – Chad Kelly, Laquon Treadwell,

Secondary Options – Evan Engram, Jaylen Walton

NOTE – The games below are not included in the DK Cash Bowl slate*

North Carolina Tar Heels at Baylor Bears – O/U 69

North Carolina

Now we get to some of the fun games. While these games have been included on the FD KOC slate, they are not included in the DK big bowl slate (but do look to have been included on a Tuesday only slate on DK). We’ll have a good idea early on of how the King of Campus slate will go as it starts out with two of the highest scoring games in this UNC/BU game and TTU/LSU. UNC checks in as 3 point favorites with a team total of 36 points, which is just slightly below their season average of 39.8. These are two of the fastest paced teams in the nation, and Vegas expects some fireworks, despite all of Baylor’s injuries.

The premier option on UNC is their QB Marquise Williams and he’s a top three overall option on this slate in my opinion. Williams was a bit volatile down the stretch, but he’s shown us that 40 fantasy point upside this season. He’s an elite threat on the ground and Baylor has allowed some solid running totals to opposing QBs as Baker Mayfield ran for 76 yards and a TD on 15 carries, while KSU QB Joe Hubener ran for 153 yards and two TDs on 29 carries. UNC’s bread and butter is their running game as they average 6.1 YPC (2nd) and 226 rushing YPG (17th), so they will be a big test to what has been a solid BU run defense. The Big 12 is primarily a pass first offense but some of the more run heavy teams like Kansas State (258 total rushing yards) and OU (241 rushing yards) did find success on the ground against Baylor. UNC also has a very capable RB in Elijah Hood, who scored a TD in eight of his last nine games. His volume does leave something to be desired at times as his ceiling tends to be around 20 carries, but he’s a viable mid-range option at RB if you can’t afford the high end plays.

The UNC passing game is not nearly as predictable as their running game, and we’re really throwing darts here. Ryan Switzer and Mack Hollins lead the team in receiving yards and TDs, but both can be very volatile. Switzer is the steadier performer of the two as he operates out of the slot, whereas Hollins is the deep threat as he only 28 receptions on the season. Hollins has made them count though with 8 receiving TDs and 711 yards, which both lead the team. Neither is cash game playable but are both cheap and in play in GPP formats due to the fast pace nature of this game.

Elite Options – Marquise Williams, Elijah Hood

Secondary Options – Mack Hollins, Ryan Switzer

Baylor

Baylor was the elite offense in CFB for the majority of the season but then was hit with a rash of injuries at QB as they are down to their third string QB in Chris Johnson. Johnson was actually knocked out early in their season finale against Texas and Baylor had to turn to their WR and RB to play QB. He’s expected to return for the bowl game, but the Bears will also be without top WR Corey Coleman and top RB Shock Linwood. Vegas doesn’t seem overly concerned as their team total is a solid 33 points. That total obviously isn’t the 50 to 60 they dropped earlier this year, but it is more than the 17 and 21 they scored to finish the year. Also due to the year end struggles and injuries, almost all of their options are affordable – if we can nail down who will step up due to their injury situation.

UNC has made big strides defending the pass, but they are still lacking against the run as they allow 4.8 YPC (90th) and 217 YPG (108). With Baylor down to their third string QB, it stands to reason that we’ll see them attack UNC heavily on the ground. Linwood is out, but both Johnny Jefferson and Devin Chafin are very capable backups. The issue is which will one see the majority of the carries. Chafin tends to see a lot of usage near the red zone, while Jefferson gets more between the 20s. Jefferson spent a lot of time at wildcat QB against Texas, so he offers the most upside if there is a disaster at QB and Johnson is injured again. Both are cheap and are perfectly fine options to mix into your tournaments lineups, but it’s a bit of a dice roll as to which one will be more productive.

We’re unfortunately still not entirely sure what to expect from Chris Johnson at QB as he was somewhat productive in relief against OSU, played in horrific weather against TCU, and then was injured very early against Texas. He did split time at both WR and QB earlier this season, so he is very raw at the position He does offer some running ability, but the worry would be how much he runs due to the fact that he has no backup. There is still some potential upside here as we’ve seen the upside a QB has in the Baylor system. However, it’s a GPP only play as he does look to be a big downgrade from Seth Russell/Jarrett Stidham, and Baylor could take a run heavy approach here. The better exposure to the Baylor game would probably be through K.D. Cannon or Jay Lee, who are dirt cheap. The strength of UNC’s defense has been against the pass, but with Corey Coleman out, there should be some extra usage to go around – assuming Johnson can get them the ball. Of the two, I’ll give the edge to Cannon, as he has big time homerun hitting ability. Against OSU, Johnson actually had TD passes to both as he hit Lee for a 39 yard score and Cannon for a 71 yard score.

Elite Options – KD Cannon (GPP), Johnny Jefferson/Devin Chafin

Secondary Options – Jay Lee, Chris Johnson (GPP)

LSU Tigers at Texas Tech Red Raiders – O/U 73.5

LSU

This game checks in with the second highest total on the FD slate at 73 points and presents the biggest decision on the slate: whether to fade Leonard Fournette’s high ownership or not. He was the top RB in the country for the first half of the season, but faded in the second half due to poor QB play and some tough matchups. However, he’s still arguably the nation’s top talent at RB and this Texas Tech defense is nowhere near tough. In fact, you couldn’t draw up a better matchup for Fournette if you tried.

Texas Tech’s run defense has been shockingly bad as they are allowing 5.8 YPC (125th) and 267 YPG (124th). Meanwhile, LSU averages 5.8 YPC and 245 YPG on the ground. Can you say mismatch. Basically, if a RB gets 15 or more against Tech, he’s going to go bonkers. Here’s a list of RB, who topped 15 carries against Tech: Aaron Jones (17/139/1), Alex Collins (28/170/1), Aaron Green (28/162/2), Shock Linwood (20/221/2), Mike Warren (23/245), Samaje Perine (23/201/4), Joe Mixon (16/154/2), De’Ande Mann (15/107), Wendell Smallwood (22/163/1), Rushel Shell (14/111/2), and Chris Warren III (25/276/4). Collins is the only back in that group who can maybe give Fournette any run for his money so this sets up as a game where, barring injury, his floor is probably 150 yards and two TDs, with a ceiling of 250 to 300 yards and multiple TDs. He’ll be the highest owned player on the slate, but I’d likely only play the fade if you have multiple lineups and are shooting for first. If you’re playing for a solid cash then Fournette is the play in my view, but it’s also possible talented backs like Dalvin Cook or someone like that can outscore him.

If you’re playing the fade and don’t think Fournette is going off then the pivots on LSU would be QB Brandon Harris, WR Malachi Dupre and backup RB Derrius Guice. They’re all deep tournament options only as the most likely scenario is Fournette breaking records. LSU has a team total of 40 points, which is 10 points higher than their season average so if Fournette doesn’t go off then someone else will, as this Tech defense is awful. While they’ve been astonishingly bad against the run, they aren’t great against the pass either as they are 109th in passing defense. Harris is not a good passer, and really struggled down the stretch. However, he does offer some running ability and did flash 20 FD point upside against some weaker defenses like Western Kentucky, Auburn and South Carolina. Texas Tech certainly falls into the category of weak defense and he allows you to fit two high end RB if you choose. However, he’s a guy I’d only feel comfortable about having in one of out 10 to 15 lineups.

LSU’s top deep threat in Travin Dural is out so their only somewhat dependable WR is Malachi Dupre. I don’t mind him as a tournament option, but there are much safer options in his price range at WR. Finally, if you’re playing the blowout angle then Guice is their 2nd string RB and if he sees 10+ carries then 80 yards and a TD is certainly possible against this defense.

Elite Options – Leonard Fournette

Secondary Options – Brandon Harris, Malachi Dupre, Derrius Guice

Texas Tech

While this is a pace up game for LSU, this is a pace down game for Texas Tech and their team total of 33 points, while solid, is 12 points lower than their season average. LSU hasn’t been the shut down defense we’ve seen in the past as they are 25th in rushing defense and 39th in passing yards allowed, which is not bad by and means, but not to the level we’ve come to expect. Still I do think this is enough of a downgrade for Tech that they are secondary GPP options only, as LSU could really control clock here. Also, it is worth noting that this Texas Tech offense has not been the same away from home.

Tech QB Patrick Mahomes will be a big test for the Tigers though as he’s produced gaudy numbers all year long. They’ve faced three very good QBs this season in Dak Prescott (335 passing yards and two total TDs), Brandon Doughty (325 passing yards and three TDs), and Chad Kelly (360 total yards and 4 TDs). Mahomes fits right into the mix with those guys so a solid performance is certainly possible and Tech should be playing catchup tonight. He is expensive so I’m giving the nod to a few others but a Mahomes and Fournette stack could be interesting for a tournament.

While Mahomes has thrown for a billion yards this year, his only dependable WR has been Jakeem Grant, and even he has been volatile away from home. He tends to produce either monster games or score single digit fantasy points so he’s a GPP only option, especially in a tougher matchup. I’ve personally mostly given up on trying to predict the secondary Texas Tech WRs as it’s been an exercise in futility. However, Devin Lauderdale is suspended so don’t roster him, and Ian Sadler would look like the next best bet- but they’ve been unpredictable all season.

Deandre Washington has really come on this year and put up eye popping numbers for a RB playing in a spread attack. He has almost 1,800 total yards and 16 TDs on the season. However, his price is really juiced and he did struggle against the tougher defenses he faced like OU and Arkansas so I’m looking at the other high end RB.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Patrick Mahomes, Jakeem Grant, Deandre Washington

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