CFB Grind Down: FD King of Campus & DK Cash Bowl - Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-01-02 21:39:28

NOTE – DK has not put up the slates for the Wed or Sat games, so the following is based on FanDuel pricing

Auburn Tigers at Memphis Tigers – O/U 63

Auburn

Auburn is coming off of a very disappointing season as they started the year ranked in the Top 10. They struggled offensively and defensively at times this season, and a Memphis team that beat Ole Miss can certainly give them some problems. At first glance this was a game that I didn’t love all that much, but Vegas is telling a different story as the 63-point total is very solid. Auburn also checks in with a team total of 33 points, which is six points higher than their season average, so they’re one of the few teams expected to outperform their season average.

The problem is that their QB situation is a complete mess. Both Sean White and Jeremy Johnson have been unproductive and the starter designation is currently up in the air, so it’s a situation to avoid. That is disappointing, as Memphis has really struggled against the pass as they are 121st in passing yards allowed per game. While you can’t target the Auburn QB, Memphis’ struggles in the secondary do have me taking a peek at Ricardo Louis as a GPP option. He’s been hurt by the poor QB play, but he can absolutely fly, so he’s a legit threat to break a long pass play (or run) here against a bad Memphis secondary – if White or Johnson can get him the rock. He also has been getting two and five carries a game on jet sweeps. There is some solid value at WR on FD, so I think he’ll go overlooked at $4,700. He’s a guy who has shown 20 FD point upside, and his ownership will be likely be much lower than a guy like KD Cannon, who has some similar QB questions.

Memphis played solid run defense throughout the year and finished 37th in rushing yards allowed per game and allowed just 3.6 YPC. Typically, you see the Power 5 conference team have the advantage in the trenches, and the Auburn running game is their strength. However, it’s been a bit of a timeshare between Peyton Barber and Jovon Robinson at RB. Barber was the guy to start the year, but Robinson has come on strong and appears to have overtaken him. If I knew one would get 20+ carries then I’d be much more enthused about the situation, but it looks like a situation where there is a ceiling of 15 carries or so for each. If you’re looking to take a tournament shot, I’d give the edge to Robinson.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Jovon Robinson (GPP), Ricardo Louis (GPP)

Memphis

Memphis will be looking for their second win over an SEC West team, but they struggled down the stretch and then had their head coach hired away by Virginia Tech, so I do have some concerns about their mindset. However, this Auburn defense was sub-par this season as they were 88th against the run and 64th against the pass. They also will be without their DC, as Will Muschamp took the headcoaching job at South Carolina.

The primary problem in targeting Memphis is that outside of their QB Paxton Lynch, they are a complete cluster to target as they spread around the touches so much. They get the ball to four different RB and equally spread the ball around at WR as Mose Frazier (66/750/4), Anthony Miller (44/684/5) and Phil Mayhue (47/644/1) all have similar production. That really leaves their star QB Lynch as the only option in this one. Memphis’ team total of 30 is 10 points lower than their season average of 40, so it’s not an ideal matchup, and the Auburn defense did play better in the 2nd half. However, they are without their DC, and Lynch did light up the Ole Miss secondary. He’s not likely to make the cut for me, but he’s probably going to be very low owned, so he’s a potential tournament option if you’re feeling risky.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Paxton Lynch

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Mississippi State Bulldogs – O/U 61

NC State

This game will likely fly under the radar in the King of Campus, but it’s not a bad game to target as the total of 61 is solid and both teams average over 70 snaps per game. NC State lost their top RB, Matt Dayes, to injury, and since then offense has really revolved around QB Jacoby Brissett and do-it-all TE, Jaylen Samuels. Reggie Gillaspy has stepped in as the starting RB, but Brissett and Samuels have been seen an uptick in carries as well. Mississippi State has been average defensively as they allow 4.5 YPC (71st), 174 rushing YPG (68th) and 226 passing YPG (60th). Brissett is a dual-threat QB, who has actually topped 17 carries in two of his last three games. He’s coming off of a monster game against UNC, but has otherwise only topped 25 FD points once this year, so I’m not entirely sold on his tournament upside. Working in his favor is the fact that Mississippi State hasn’t faced many great QBs and they were torched by Brandon Allen (406 passing yards and seven TDs) and Chad Kelly (310 total yards and three TDs). Overall, he’d be a secondary option for GPP only if you’re looking for low ownership, and I’m more inclined to target the NC State tight ends.

NC State is an odd team in that their best receiving options are their TEs. Samuels is the elite option on the slate, and priced like it. However, it’s very rare to find a TE that gets five to eight carries a game, as well as his workload in the receiving game. He has 14 total TDs on the year, and Mississippi State did allow 13 receptions for 176 yard and five TDs to Arkansas TEs, Hunter Henry and Jeremy Sprinkle. He’s clearly the top option on the board if you’re spending, and even David Grinnage is in play as his production picked up down the stretch.

Elite Options – Jaylen Samuels

Secondary Options – Jacoby Brissett, David Grinnage

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs check in with a team total of 33 points, which is three points higher than their season average. The NC State defense is solid on paper, as they are 45th in rushing yards allowed per game and 25th in passing yards allowed per game. However, they do allow 4.4 YPC despite having faced a pretty light schedule. Against their better opponents: they allowed 56 points to Clemson, 34 to Florida State, 45 to North Carolina, as well as 29 to a bad Syracuse offense that was without their starting QB. This isn’t a defense I’d be scared of, so Dak Prescott remains firmly on the fantasy radar. Mississippi State has no real RB threat, so Prescott is their primary threat on the ground and through the air. If they are projected for four TDs, then there’s a very solid chance he accounts for all four – either with his legs or arm. The Wolfpack largely contained Marquise Williams as the UNC RB ran wild, but dual-threat QBs like Lamar Jackson (121 rushing yard and a TD) and Deshaun Watson (437 total yards and 6 total TDs) had big days against them.

As mentioned I’m avoiding the Bulldog RBs but Fred Ross is one of the elite options at WR on FD. His price just fails to move as he’s still priced under $6,000, despite the fact he has 41 total receptions over his last four games and over 100 receiving yards in each. Outside of Fournette, he very well likely could be the highest-owned player on the slate. If you’re looking for a tournament pivot, then his teammate Derunnya Wilson is a big red-zone target and does provide big game potential. If he were to be the one with the big game, then you’d be sitting very pretty in tournaments as he would likely hurt Ross’ production.

Elite Options – Dak Prescott, Fred Ross

Secondary Options – De’runnya Wilson

USC Trojans at Wisconsin Badgers – O/U 50.5

USC

This is a game that I’m struggling to break down, so in a situation like that, I’m more likely to play the fade as I think there are safer options on the board. This game checks in with a fairly low total of 50 points and USC’s projected team total is a full TD under their season average. On paper this Wisconsin defense is one to run away and hide from, as they allow just 3.2 YPC (4th), 98.2 rushing YPG (3rd), and 168.9 passing YPG (5th). However, they did happen to avoid the better Big 10 offenses like Ohio State, Indiana and Michigan State so they faced some very weak offenses.

I’m not entirely sold that the Wisconsin defense is this elite (I do think they are a top 25 unit, especially against the run), but I’m also not sold on the USC offense. They have become somewhat of a RBBC between Ronald Jones and Justin Davis, with Davis getting a few more looks, and given the tougher matchup, there’s just not enough upside there to attack.

Cody Kessler has likewise played very poorly in the second half of the season, including against some suspect defenses. He’s not a guy I can trust, but JuJu Smith is a potential interesting tournament option. He started the year on fire, but then tailed off due to Kessler’s struggles as well as the fact he was dealing with a bunch of injuries. He should be much healthier after a long bowl layoff and Wisconsin hasn’t seen a WR anywhere close to his talent level. The top passing games that Wisconsin has seen this year are arguably Alabama and Nebraska, which isn’t saying a whole lot. Wisconsin does have some solid corners and it could turn out that they are an elite pass defense as this is a similar situation to the Georgia State/San Jose State matchup earlier this Bowl Season. However, Juju’s price is very depressed and Wisconsins’ tough pass defense on paper should keep his ownership down. I think he’s an elite option to attack in tournaments but probably not for a cash game.

Elite Options – JuJu Smith (GPP)

Secondary Options – NONE

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is a tough team to break down as there is a uncertainty with their top RB Corey Clement. He’s tentatively expected to play but his volume seems to be a mystery, which really throws a wrench into breaking down the Wisconsin offense. We’ve seen this story before with Clement and it’s been a royal pain. Without Clement in the lineup, Wisconsin has uncharacteristically really struggled to run the ball this year as they average just 3.8 YPC. If Clement gets a solid work load then he’s a big boost to their run game, but the Wisconsin passing game takes a hit. USC’s strength on defense has been against the run (35th in rushing yards allowed per game), however, they did allow 4.6 YPC on the season and were taken apart twice by Christian McCaffrey, allowed a big day to C.J. Prosise (19/143/2), as well as Royce Freeman (20/147). Still, it’s very tough to trust a guy like Clement as he hasn’t topped 15 carries this year and his workload is uncertain.

With Clement banged up for basically all of the year, the Wisconsin passing game performed better than in years past. The weakness of the USC defense is against the pass as they are 93rd in passing yards allowed per game. However, the possible return of Clement leaves open the possibility of a run-heavy approach, and Wisconsin QB, Joel Stave, is just not a guy that provides much upside. His top two targets on the year are Alex Erickson and Troy Fumagalli. I prefer Erickson on a PPR site like DK, so he could be in play depending on his price point, but he’s a secondary option on FD as he’s the same price as Fred Ross. Fumagalli’s production has tailed off as Austin Traylor has returned at TE. Traylor is more of the blocking TE, but he does cut into Fumagalli’s snaps.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Alex Erickson, Corey Clement (very risky)

Penn State Nittany Lions at Georgia Bulldogs – O/U 42.5

Penn State

There are some solid games to target on the King of Campus slate, but this is not one of them. Both offenses are very hard to watch, while both defenses have played very well this year. As a result, we have a game with a total of just 42 points. Christian Hackenberg has been on a downward spiral since his freshman year and it’s hard to see a tough matchup with UGA changing anything.

The two most talented players on this offense are Chris Godwin and Saquon Barkley. Barkley has run well against some tough defenses, but he’s fairly expensive on FD and PSU’s team total doesn’t leave a lot of room for upside. UGA has also been solid against the run as they are 48th in rushing yards allowed per game. Georgia is 1st in passing yards allowed per game, but they’re similar to Wisconsin in that they are aided by playing a ton of awful passing teams. Like Wisconsin, Alabama is probably the “top” passing team they’ve faced. Chris Godwin has been on a tear and does offer some big-play ability, so he’d by my “favorite” Penn State option, but it’s a pretty easy game to fade. Georgia did fire Mark Richt, so they’ll be playing with an interim coach, so maybe the focus isn’t quite there and Godwin gets loose.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Chris Godwin

Georgia

Georgia is in a similar boat as Penn State as they have been abysmal offensively and are without a head coach for the bowl game. The primary reason for their terrible offensive is awful play at QB. Penn State has been rock solid this year defensively as they are 8th in passing yards allowed and 39th in rushing yards allowed per game. They also did play (and lost to) the upper tier Big 10 offenses like Ohio State and Michigan State. Malcolm Mitchell is a solid WR, but I want no part of the UGA passing game.

The only possible option is their RB Sony Michel. He’s taken over for Nick Chubb and is a former 5 star recruit himself. He looks locked into 25 carries a game and has topped 130 rushing yards in three of his last four games. Georgia’s team total seems a little high to me, but if they get there I could easily see him accounting for two of those TDs. While Penn State was solid against the run, they did allow some solid outings to Jahad Thomas (29/135/2), Ezekiel Elliot (27/153/1), and Justin Jackson (28/186), so their run defense isn’t impenetrable. All that being said, he’s a secondary option, but in play as a RB2.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Sony Michel

Oregon Ducks at TCU Horned Frogs – O/U 78.5

Oregon

If you’re lucky enough to be leading the King of Campus but have no players remaining then you could be in trouble as this game looks primed for a shootout and tons of fantasy goodness. It has the highest total on the slate, is a pick em, and is a game that I want plenty of exposure too.

TCU has traditionally been a great defensive team but that has not been the case this year as they allow 4.2 YPC (54th), 186 rushing YPG (80th), and 231 passing YPG (69th). This Oregon offense has been rolling since their QB Vernon Adams returned to the lineup and should put up points. Vernon Adams has thrown for 19 TD passes in his last five games, and has topped 300 passing yards in three of his last four games. He finished the year playing his best football, and while TCU contained Baker Mayfield, they did allow 428 total yards and 4 TD to Patrick Mahomes, 352 passing yards and five TDs to Mason Rudolph as well as four rushing TDs to Joe Hubener. The only real question here for me is whether the production comes from Adams or from their RB Royce Freeman. I’m giving the slight edge to his counterpart, Trevon Boykin, but he’s certainly a viable target in all formats.

Speaking of Freeman, he’s topped 100 rushing yards in nine of his last ten games and is one of nations’ best RBs. The Big 12 isn’t a run-heavy league, but the two best Big 12 RB did have big success as Samaje Perine ran for 188 yards and a TD, while Deandre Washington ran for 188 yard and four TDs. He’s a top five option for me on this slate and someone I want exposure too.

At WR, Darren Carrington and Bralon Addison have been doing all the damage. Both are still very fairly priced and are top options to work into your lineups. I’d give the slight edge to Addison in cash games, but I also think he’ll be the higher owned of the duo, so Carrington could be the preferred tournament pivot. Carrington has dropped a few deep balls, so his recent production has been a little down, but the upside for 150 yards and two TDs is there. Dwayne Stanford is also minimum price and is their third WR.

Elite Options – Royce Freeman, Vernon Adams, Bralon Addison, Darren Carrington

Secondary Options – Dwayne Stanford

TCU

The big news for TCU is that while they will be without Josh Doctson, Trevone Boykin should be 100% after the bowl layoff. He’s a dynamic threat both in the air and on the ground. He struggled against Baylor, but that was in a monsoon, and I think he returns to his standard 40 FD point upside we saw earlier this year. Oregon struggled against the run as they allowed 4.9 YPC (97th), 185 YPG (79th) as well as the pass (288 YPG – 123rd). Oregon really struggled against the mobile QB they faced, as Mike Bercovici accounted for over 450 total yards and six TDs, while Travis Wilson accounted for over 300 total yards and six TDs. They also really struggled with the uptempo Washington State passing attack, allowing 505 passing yards and five TDs. He’s the premier option at QB in my eyes.

If you’re looking to pivot from Boykin but still want exposure to TCU then their RB Aaron Green and their WR Kolby Listenbee and Kavontae Turpin are the names to know. As mentioned, Oregon has not been great against the run and if they focus too much on Boykin then Green is certainly someone who can make them pay. He’s been mostly disappointing this year but his price at just $6,300 is very fair and he performed better later in the season.

I think Turpin or Listenbee could potentially help someone win $100,000. They are both dirt cheap at $4,900 and there are really several WR in that $4,700- $5,200 with high upside but low floors so I think that will be a key position to nail for tournaments. The problem is that it’s very tough to nail down which one to target, and it’s really a coin flip for me. With Josh Doctson out there is lots of volume opened up, but we don’t have much history to go off of to see Boykin’s preferred target. Turpin operates out of the slot so is the better bet for volume, whereas Listenbee is their deep threat.

UPDATE – Apparently Trevone Boykin was arrested last night for hitting a police officer. We don’t have all the facts and he’s not confirmed out but give a big downgrade to the entire TCU passing game if he is out and go ahead and give a large bump to Aaron Green. If have him on the King of Campus like I do then you can start tilting with me.

UPDATE Number Two – Boykin is still an idiot and has been suspended for the bowl game. Aaron Green gets a big boost, but a big downgrade to entire TCU passing game. This is still an exploitable secondary so they’re cheap GPP options, but TCU’s backup QB have not looked this year and whoever draws the start will be thrown into the fire after not taking 1st team reps for the entire bowl practices.

Elite Options – Aaron Green

Secondary Options – Kolby Listenbee, Kavontae Turpin

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