CFB Grind Down: FD King of Campus & DK Cash Bowl - Page 4

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-01-02 16:18:43

West Virginia Mountaineers at Arizona State Sun Devils – O/U 64

West Virginia

The last game of the slate also brings solid fantasy potential, as neither team is known for their defense and both are averaging over 80 snaps per game. West Virginia’s team total of 32 points is right in line with their season average of 32.5 PPG.

ASU has been a funnel defense as they have defended the run very well, allowing just 3.6 YPC (16th) and 110 YPG (6th). However, their pass defense has been an entirely different story, as they are dead last in passing yards allowed with a staggering 346 YPG allowed. The problem is that West Virginia kind of evolved into a run-heavy team at the end of the year, as their QB Skyler Howard only topped 30 passing attempts once in his last five games. I think that is primarily due to the fact that he’s not that great of a QB and Dana Holgerson figured that out. However, you don’t have to be a great QB to have success against ASU, and he does offer some running ability. I hate rostering QBs that I don’t think are very good, so it’s tough to pull the trigger on Howard for me. However, the matchup is certainly there for him to have success, so he’s a viable mid-range tournament option.

Due to the decrease in volume for the passing game, the West Virginia WRs really struggled down the stretch. If you’re looking to pair Howard up, then Shelton Gibson would be the top choice. He had a big first half of the year and does offer some big-play potential, so the upside is there for tournaments. He virtually has no floor, though, so he’s a risky cash game option.

Wendell Smallwood really carried this WVU offense this season as he topped 100 rushing yards in eight of his ten games. His price point is fair, but I’ve typically avoided this ASU run defense and prefer other RB options.

Elite Options – Skyler Howard (GPP only)

Secondary Options – Shelton Gibson, Wendell Smallwood,

Arizona State

Arizona State also has a solid projected total of 32.5 points, which is also in line with their season average of 33.9 PPG. West Virginia has been okay defensively as they are 60th in rushing YPG allowed and 52nd in passing yards allowed. They did really struggle against the better Big 12 opponents, though. There’s no ASU player that jumps off the page, but Mike Bercovici and Demario Richard would be the two most likely to surprise. Bercovici is a tournament-only option due to his volatility, but he has shown that 30 FD point upside for tournaments. I don’t think he’ll make the cut for me, but Baker Mayfield threw for 320 yard and three TDs, Seth Russell had over 500 total yards and six TDs, and Trevone Boykin had over 450 total yard and four TDs against WVU. All those QB are in a different category than Bercovici, but 300 total yards is in play.

I’m not sure entirely what happened against Cal, as Demario Richard’s volume exploded back to 33 carries. Kalen Ballage had been eating into his volume, but disappeared from the game plan against Cal. I’m not entirely sold that we’ll see that volume from Richard again, but if we do then he’s a great buy at just $6,400. He is capable of bring productive with his typical 14 to 18 carries, so he could be worth a look in GPP while hoping for the 30-touch volume.

The ASU WRs have been tough to figure out, but Devin Lucien did really separate himself from the pack at the end of the year. He finished the year with two monster games against Cal and Arizona, but both of those are bad passing defenses. Based on those two games, he certainly has the upside, but this is also his highest price point on the year.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Mike Bercovici, Demario Richard, Devin Lucien

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