CFB Grind Down: Week 10 - Late Slate (Page 2)

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-06 21:34:58

Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns – O/U 53

Kansas

None – I am not really sure who you would want to play here. Kansas is not a good football team and the players have hardly any upside. The RBs are not good in Mann, Kinner, and Cox and Ryan Willis cannot even hand them the ball. The season has gone downhill so far for Kansas and I doubt they can turn this thing around against a Texas team that is heavily favored.

Texas

Elite Plays

None – Despite the high total and the favorable matchup here against Kansas, there really is not a guy I like for fantasy on Texas. I liken this situation to the Oklahoma State situation, where they have a QB who gets all of the goal line runs and scores all of the touchdowns, while the other QB gets a lot of the other work, making neither one a solid play. They share carries in the backfield as well with Gray getting the lion’s share of the carries, however, the QBs are also getting carries. This just is not a great situation to take advantage of.

Secondary Plays

Tyrone Swoopes ($6,300 FD, $5,100 DK) – The only guy I would consider using here is Swoopes, who may have gained himself some extra work outside of the goal line carries. Strong says he has confidence in Heard, but Swoopes played a good amount of the game against Iowa State and at his price he would be a solid play here if he was the starting QB. This is a very risky play and I will not be using it at all, but I could see a solid game from him.

LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide – O/U 48

LSU

None – The smart money seems to be on Alabama -7 on this game and with the second-lowest over/under in the slate, I really think that the marquee game can just be a fade on the LSU side of the ball. Fournette is going to get his work and he is going to get his, but at $9,300 at RB there are other options out there that are not in a low over/under game where they will likely be losing late and facing the Alabama defense. Fournette will still have his ownership because he is Leonard Fournette, but this is a fade for me along with the rest of the team, who only broke out against a putrid Western Kentucky defense.

Alabama

Elite Plays

Calvin Ridley ($5,500 FD, $4,800 DK) – Despite a low total here and not a lot of solid plays from this game, I think you can use Ridley religiously. Ridley has at least seven catches in three straight games and scored TDs in two before that. He has actually been one of the top WRs in the nation since Foster went out, and should see plenty of looks from Coker in this one. Ridley gets to go up against an LSU defense, which is one of the tops in the nation, but has allowed 220 yards per game through the air compared to 93 on the ground. Coker should look his way early and often and Ridley will be a staple in my lineups.

Secondary Plays

None – It will be interesting to me to see how committed these teams are to establishing the run against two of the best run defenses in the nation. I am fading both of Henry and Fournette and banking on the big boys up front getting the work done. As I noted above, LSU’s rush defense has only allowed 93 yards per game, and while they have not played guys like Henry every game, a low over/under game like this is not where I want to spend 8-9k of salary.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio State Buckeyes – O/U 53

Minnesota

None – Leidner really came to play against Michigan, tearing through that defense for over 300 yards, but still not having a great fantasy day with only one touchdown through the air and one on the ground. Minnesota is projected at two touchdowns here, so I doubt we can expect anything greater than around 25 fantasy points, which he has hit in the last two games. He is more in play on DK at $5,000 than he is on FD at $7,000, but I will most likely be fading him. There is no clear cut RB as Brooks and Smith both get looks there along with the double-digit carries of Leidner, and this Ohio State defense still grades out really well at stopping the pass. I just do not really see a reason to risk a Golden Gopher here and will be fading the team.

Ohio State

Elite Plays

Ezekiel Elliott ($9,600 FD, $8,400 DK) – Zeke is basically matchup proof and with a solid over/under here for Ohio State, he is definitely in play. I am fairly worried about how good Minnesota’s defense is, but with Cardale back under center, I would expect a huge dosage of Elliott this week as the Buckeyes try to limit Jones’ mistakes. I would rather spend my salary on Elliott than Fournette or Henry, but none of them are my favorite plays at the position.

Secondary Plays

Cardale Jones ($8,000 FD, $6,600 DK) – Jones basically has one more week to impress the coaching staff at Ohio State, but it seems that Barrett is the QB going forward. That being said, it will not be for lack of effort for Cardale, and while I would stray from using him on FanDuel at that price, I definitely think he is a viable QB on DK for $6,600. He has upside we really have not seen yet, and we could see him break out in this game as it might be his last shot before he loses his job.

Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans – O/U 67

Arizona

Elite Plays

Jared Baker ($6,500 FD, $4,800 DK) – Nick Wilson has already been ruled out of this game, so I would expect a HUGE complement of carries for Baker despite being a giant underdog here. Arizona can still score the ball and Baker gets a lot of good goal line work, and is a solid all-around back. The price is right for a player who is going to be a workhorse in this game, especially his price of $4,800 on DraftKings. Load him up and hope this game does not get too out of control.

Secondary Plays

None – The pass game is a disaster, and while I would not hate a gamble on Cayleb Jones, or maybe even Johnny Jackson at his bottom of the barrel price, I really just do not see a reason to use either Solomon or Randall in this matchup. Yes, they will have to throw, but the attempts are split and Solomon just has not been good recently. This looks like a Baker or bust game for me.

USC

Elite Plays

Cody Kessler ($7,400 FD, $7,300 DK) – Kessler’s price is outrageous here against an Arizona defense which has been comparable to defenses like Indiana, Tulsa, and SMU on the season. We are looking at six projected TDs from the USC offense here, and while Smith-Schuster is questionable, it is still advisable to get exposure to this pass game with Kessler. The price is ridiculously low on both sites for a guy who could throw for five TDs, and I am going to have a good amount of exposure.

Secondary Plays

Ronald Jones II ($5,500 FD, $4,200 DK) – Could this be the week that we see a Jones breakout? He is clearly the better back than Tre Madden and has outworked him in the last two games. They seem to be mired in a timeshare right now, but there definitely will be room to run against a porous Arizona defense. We should see a lot of runs in this game, especially if Smith-Schuster and the other receivers can’t manage to get open.

USC Receivers – Watch closely for this situation, as I am not sure I am all in on Smith-Schuster with a soft cast on his hand, however people have succeeded with one. He may be out there more as a decoy to allow the other WRs space to get open. I will most likely be fading Juju in this one, as I think the injury concerns are too great, but guys like Deontay Burnett and Darreus Rogers could be massive upside plays if Juju and Jackson are totally limited. Keep an eye on this situation and use whoever seems the healthiest.

California Bears at Oregon Ducks – O/U 76

California

Elite Plays

Jared Goff ($8,400 FD, $7,900 DK) – Goff is extremely cheap in the game with the highest over/under of the night and a very small spread. Goff should continue to throw, which could mean about 50 attempts in this game, and with Lasco returning, it will open up the pass game even more. Oregon’s defense has allowed over 300 yards through the air per game this year and I am all-in on Goff in this one.

Kenny Lawler ($6,100 FD, $6,100 DK) – Lawler has cooled off lately but I am predicting a renaissance here with 8 catches for 150 and a TD. I think you need Lawler, who is still Goff’s favorite target. And while he has been trending downward in recent weeks, I just do not see how this miserable Oregon secondary covers him. Lawler is priced like a second-tier WR here in a game where he is arguably one of the top three guys on the slate.

Stephen Anderson ($3,600 FD, $4,200 DK) – Anderson is the top option at TE on FanDuel, and while there are other solid options, I am not sure I will be using anyone else. He is the most reliable TE for catches, and if he finds the end zone, he will be way ahead of Price. On DraftKings, it is a different story, as his price is fairly expensive for being a TE, and I think you can find some better options elsewhere.

Secondary Plays

Daniel Lasco ($5,100 FD, $4,700 DK) – Lasco finally seems to be 100% and will continue to be eased back into the lead back role. I doubt we see Enwere and Muhammad go away completely, but this is Lasco’s job, and Cal should be able to move the ball at will against Oregon here. Oregon’s rush defense is much better than its pass defense, which scares me a bit, but any game where each team is projected at 5-6 TDs the RB is going to be in play. Expect low ownership, but a plethora of opportunities.

Oregon

Elite Plays

Royce Freeman ($9,200 FD, $8,500 DK) – Give me all of the Freeman on this slate. He is Oregon’s most electric playmaker who should touch the ball upwards of 30 times in this matchup. We have seen 50-point upside from Freeman (against Washington State) and in a game with the highest over/under of the day, I would expect him to be highly owned and score a LOT of fantasy points. Cal’s rush defense is not the worst but they still allow over 150 yards on the ground per game and Freeman is going to have a lot of holes to run through at home. Adams returning is not great for Freeman, but to ignore him on this slate would be foolish.

Darren Carrington ($7,400 FD, $5,200 DK) / Bralon Addison ($6,400 FD, $5,100 DK) – Carrington is ridiculously priced on DK as his first start of the season ended up with 5 catches for 100 yards and a TD. With Adams throwing the ball here, the WRs are in play and Carrington was a cheat code late last year. I am expecting him to be one of the higher owned guys on DK but I will have a lot of him and Bralon Addison against this Cal defense. I think Carrington provides the biggest upside and Addison is the highest floor WR here but I love them both in this game.

Secondary Plays

Vernon Adams Jr ($8,000 FD, $7,700 DK) – Finally healthy and given the reins of the offense, Adams had a great game in a shootout against Arizona State. The problem here I see is that it took him three overtimes to get those numbers, and I like Goff a bit better. That being said, he is still a very, very good play on this slate and would be elite if he was just a bit cheaper. The Cal pass defense has been very vulnerable this season and with a huge Vegas total, this is a TARGET EVERYONE! game.

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