CFB Grind Down Week 11 - Early Slate: Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-13 21:28:04

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles – O/U 54

NC State

There’s not a lot to like on the NC State side of the ball as this is a tough matchup and they are down one of their top playmakers in RB Matt Dayes for the season. They took a committee approach at RB last game, but their do it all TE Jaylen Samuels received eight carries to go with seven receptions, and produced another rushing TD. He’s very expensive on FD so he’s not a must play, but he’s likely to get 15 or so touches as he’s now NC State’s primary weapon with Dayes out, and that type of usage is impossible to find elsewhere at TE. The matchup is tough but NC State does have a team total of 22 points, so if Vegas is right about their team projection, I could definitely see him grabbing another TD. I’m also curious as to what FSU’s mindset will be for this one, as they were basically eliminated from national championship and ACC championship contention last weekend so it wouldn’t be a shock to see them come out flat.

However, outside of Samuels, there’s not much else on this offense to target now that Dayes is injured. Jacoby Brissett has been solid but he doesn’t bring much fantasy upside to the table. With Samuels moving around the formation, David Grinnage is getting back involved so he’s a potential punt option at TE on FD.

Elite Options – Jaylen Samuels

Secondary Options – David Grinnage (FD TE punt)

Florida State

The big news to note here is that Everett Golson will step back in as starting QB replacing Sean Maguire. He’s been fairly pedestrian all year long so he’s not very high on my radar, although he could be worth a peek on DK at sub $6,000, due to the tight salary cap. The bigger effect of this move could actually be on the FSU WRs as Kermit Whitfield put together strong Weeks 6 through 8 with Golson under center. However, with Maguire under center, it was Travis Rudolph who exploded in Weeks 9 and 10. With Golson back under center and Whitfield’s price on the decline, he’s a guy who could be worth a tournament dart as game log watchers will target Rudolph.

All that being said this FSU offense centers around star RB Dalvin Cook. He put up a very impressive 194 rushing yards against an elite Clemson defense, and has proven to be matchup proof. The NC State defense looks good paper, but outside of Clemson (who put up 56 on them), they’ve faced a very weak group of offenses. Cook is in the elite tier with Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott and it’s hard to go wrong with any of those three if you’re spending. I think Cook has the highest upside in the group, but he’s also been banged up lately so he may not be as safe for cash games.

Elite Options – Dalvin Cook

Secondary Options – Kermit Whitfield, Everett Golson (DK)

Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils – O/U 52

Washington

Washington’s offense has been very pedestrian to start the year and this is a very low total for a Pac 12 game as Washington plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation. Arizona State has been stout against the run this year as they’re top 10 in the nation in both YPG and YPC allowed so this is a tough matchup for Myles Gaskin. He does have at least 18 carries in four of his last five weeks, and has a TD in each of those four weeks that he had 18 carries. Given ASU’s stout run defense, he’s not an elite option, but he does provide solid volume security at a cheap price point.

ASU’s weakness on defense has been their ability to defend the pass, but Washington’s pass offense is difficult to rely on. Freshman QB Jake Browning has been very up and down and there is no go to receiving option. Jaydon Mickens has been good for around 50 receiving yards a game but only has one TD on the season so there’s been no upside. The best bet here would be their TE Joshua Perkins on FD. He’s produced at least 40 receiving yards in five straight weeks, and Washington’s young QB really tends to use him as a security blanket.

Elite Options – Joshua Perkins (FD)

Secondary Options – Myles Gaskin

Arizona State

This is a big pace down game for Arizona State due to Washington’s slow playing style and this is one of the lower totals we have seen for an ASU game this year. In addition to playing at a slow pace, Washington has also been solid defensively as they are slightly above average against the run and the pass.

Mike Bercovici has flashed some big upside with big fantasy performances recently, but he’s also shown a ton of volatility and threw up a dud in quality matchup with Washington State last weekend. Given the slower pace of this game, he’s a secondary option as there are other QBs in higher scoring environments I’d prefer to target. The ASU receiving corp has been tough to figure out as Tim White and Devin Lucien have both had their moments, and now D. J. Foster is getting back involved with 13 receptions and 21 total touches over his past two weeks. There are weeks when I’m willing to play the guessing game with this unit, but this isn’t one of those weeks.

Finally, I like Demario Richard but Washington is allowing just 3.5 YPC on the season and they’ve faced some solid running games in Utah, Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona so this isn’t a matchup that I’m looking to attack very hard. He looks like he’s healthy again and has topped 100 rushing yards in two straight games, while also contributing in the passing game, so he’s not a bad play, but he lacks the upside he typically has.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Demario Richard, Mike Bercovici

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones – O/U 60

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are riding high after their impressive beat down of TCU last weekend, and their biggest obstacle they will face this week is not having a let down game as Iowa State is a defense that can be picked on.

The threat of J.W. Walsh (rushing TD in four straight games) vulturing TD opportunities inside the 10 is always worrisome for me when it comes to rostering Mason Rudolph. However, he’s still throwing for big yardage, and last week he just threw for a lot of long TDs and kept Walsh sitting there on the sideline for the most part. The Walsh factor always leaves Rudolph as a GPP only play for me, but Iowa State is 113th in passing yards allowed per game so he’s in play for tournaments.

Oklahoma State as a whole has been a nightmare to dissect offensively this year, but James Washington has finally started to emerge at WR and provide a go to option for both the Cowboys and DFS players. I was hesitant to pay his price on FD last week, which turned out to be a big mistake, and he’s now topped 100 receiving yards in four of his last five weeks, and has six Tds over his last three weeks. His price point is still very affordable on DK this week, and he’ll likely be a very a popular target. On FD, he’s more of a GPP play as I prefer the season long consistency of guys like Will Fuller and Aaron Burbridge. Outside of Washington, there is no consistent option as David Glidden isn’t typically a TD threat and Brandon Shephard has basically disappeared.

In terms of their RB, they are RBBC and J.W. Walsh basically serves as their goal line back so this is a situation to avoid.

Elite Options – James Washington

Secondary Options – Mason Rudolph

Iowa State

This is a potential letdown spot for Oklahoma State as they head on the road to face a team they should handle. Iowa State does have a team total of 23 and are just 14 point underdogs so there could be viability in the Iowa State passing game. OSU is 95th in passing yards allowed per game, and Joel Lanning attempted 50 passes last weekend, while also rushing 11 times. The volume looks to be there but OSU has been solid defensively this year so he’s really just a GPP dart throw as a QB2 on DK.

Lanning’s favorite option last game was Allen Lazard who hauled in eight receptions for 100 yards. He’s Iowa State’s most talented wide out, an with the Cyclones likely playing catchup, I could see him with another solid outing here as he’s shown good chemistry with Lanning so far. With a tight cap on DK, his $4,700 price on DK is very playable.

Mike Warren sees a ton of volume at RB as he’s registered at least 18 carries in seven straight games, with upside into the high 20s. However, OSU is allowing just 3.6 YPC on the season, and given the likely game flow, he’s more likely to fall in the 18 to 20 range. His price isn’t terrible but overall he’s not a guy I’ll have very much, if any, exposure too.

Elite Options – Allen Lazard (DK)

Secondary Options – Mike Warren

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – O/U 52

Wake Forest

Wake Forest has been a terrible offense all year long and now heads on the road to face a top 10 Notre Dame squad. With a team total of just 12.5 points they’re right there with Kansas as teams to just ignore and avoid.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – NONE

Notre Dame

The question still looming here is the status of C.J. Prosise who left last week’s game in the first quarter with a concussion. He finally practiced yesterday for the first time this week, but his status is still TBD. With the Irish being four-TD favorites, I’d be surprised if he played here, and even if he does play, I’d be concerned as to whether he gets a full workload as Notre Dame still has a huge game with Stanford on their schedule. If he happens to play, I’ll likely fade him, but if he sits then Josh Adams jumps into the equation. With Prosise injured last weekend, he had 21 touches for 150 total yards and a TD, and would likely be in line for at least 15 carries. Notre Dame should roll here so if he does get the start, he’s a solid bet to find the endzone at least once.

In Prosise’s absence, the Deshone Kizer to Will Fuller connection really heated up last weekend. Fuller had three receiving Tds and now has a TD in every game but one on the season. He’s my favorite WR on the play slate due to his ability to rack up scores, and that shouldn’t change against lowly Wake Forest. Kizer meanwhile has continued to improve every week, and has put up two huge fantasy performances in his last two weeks. Due to his price point I’m mostly looking elsewhere for cash games, but he’s shown GPP winning upside and is a very viable tournament play in a great matchup.

Elite Options – Deshone Kizer, Will Fuller, Josh Adams (if he starts)

Secondary Options – NONE

Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange – O/U 57

Clemson

Deshaun Watson has turned a slow start into becoming a legit Heisman contender as he’s putting up huge stats down the stretch. He only found the endzone once against FSU, but he produced over 400 yards of total offense for the third time in four weeks. His only “down” game during this stretch came against Clemson’s thrashing of Miami that saw him put up 240 yards of total offense in just over a half of football. He should blister a Syracuse secondary that is currently allowing over 300 passing YPG, and was abused by the likes of Sean Maguire and Kyle Bolin, who are back up QBs, over the past two weeks, . The only concern is whether this game stays competitive enough for him to even see three full quarters of action. However, that’s also a concern for guys like Trevone Boykin so Watson is a guy that deserves to be squarely on your fantasy radar this weekend.

Watson’s top target on the year has been Artavis Scott, who sees a ton of usage in the short passing game, but hasn’t been able to break a big play recently and has only topped 100 receiving yards once all year. On a site like FD, his price has finally dropped, and at just $5,3000, against a bad secondary, he’s a great value. On DK, he’s still a solid option, but he’s not coming at a discount so I’m actually looking more at his teammate Deon Cain on DK. Cain has come on of late as the freshman seems to have adjusted to CFB with two TDs over his last two games, and has been solid over his past five games. Lastly, Jordan Leggett continues to be one of the most productive TEs in the country as he put up 100 receiving yards on FSU last weekend, and also has six TDs on the season.

Wayne Gallman produced his sixth 100 yard rushing day of the season last weekend as he ran 22 times for 103 yards and a TD against a stingy FSU run defense. Syracuse is also below average against the run as they’re allowing 184 rushing YPG and 4.7 YPC so this sets up as a nice spot on paper. The only concern is the blowout risk limiting his volume so I personally think a guy like Kelvin Taylor is safer, but given the weak opponent and Clemson’s total, there is two TD upside here.

Elite Options – Deshaun Watson, Jordan Leggett (FD), Artavis Scott (FD), Deon Cain (DK)

Secondary Options – Wayne Gallman

Syracuse

Freshman QB Eric Dungey has shown some dual threat ability at times this season, but he’s likely out for this game, and possibly the season, with a concussion. That leaves Zack Mahoney, who was their fifth-string QB to begin the year, as their starter against the number one ranked team in the nation. Obviously, that is not a situation conducive to fantasy success and an easy stay away.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – NONE

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