CFB Grind Down Week 11 - Early Slate: Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-13 21:20:45

Southern Methodist Mustangs at Navy Midshipmen – O/U 61

SMU

This is a FD-only game that I was pretty surprised to see make the slate. SMU checks in with a team total of 21 points, but I’m loving the Navy rushing attack here, and Navy controlling the clock is a legit concern of mine. Based on that I don’t think any SMU player is an elite option. Navy has played very good run defense on the year, and limited a potent Memphis offense to just 20 points last week so they are no pushover. SMU’s QB Matt Davis does bring a ton of running ability to the table and Navy’s weakness on defense is their ability to defend the pass. He’s a little risky due to his reliance on the run combined with Navy’s solid run defense so I’d leave him in the GPP only category.

His top target is Courtland Sutton, who has nine TDs on the season, and given Navy’s weak pass defense as well as the fact that SMU should be trailing and in pass mode, he’s in a nice spot to record his tenth reception TD. At RB Xavier Jones is solid but with SMU being three-TD underdogs as well as Navy’s solid run defense, I’ll look elsewhere this week.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Courtland Sutton, Matt Davis

Navy

As mentioned, I was surprised to see this game in the slate, and I was even more surprised when I saw Keenan Reynolds price at just $7,100. That price is just too low given this matchup, and he’s the plug and play option at QB for cash games, and even at high ownership, I’d have plenty of GPP exposure to him as well. He was quiet last week, but he’s a guy with five rushing TD upside and SMU comes into this game allowing 5.4 YPC and 237 rushing YPG. He’s also in position to set the all-time rush TD record, and he should do so in style this weekend.

Outside of Reynolds, the only other predictable option in this triple option attack is Chris Swain. He had three TDs last weekend and has topped 100 yards in a two straight, and is a guy that I’d get some exposure too, especially in tournaments as he’s a great pivot from Reynolds.

Elite Options – Keenan Reynolds, Chris Swain

Secondary Options – None

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders – O/U 72

Kansas State

Unsurprisingly, a game with Texas Tech checks in with the highest total on the slate. The Kansas State offense has been nothing to write home about this year, but this week they get a huge bump due to the terrible Tech defense. Joe Hubener is very limited in his ability to throw the ball, but he is an effective runner and Kansas State isn’t afraid to use him in the running game. He had 29 carries for 153 rushing yards and two TDs last weekend, and also had a huge rushing day against TCU earlier this season. The problem with Hubener lies in that if you can stop him from running, he’s such a bad passer that a terrible fantasy day is coming. Luckily, Texas Tech can’t stop anyone from running the ball as they’re allowing 268.8 YPG and 5.7 YPC. In year’s past, Bill Snyder has really tried to control clock against the potent Tech passing game, and I’d expect nothing different this season so Hubener is one of my favorite mid-range QB plays on the slate.

At RB, Charles Jones has finally started to emerge over the past two weeks as he’s had 34 carries, which dwarfs every other KSU RB. He hasn’t found the endzone during that time span, and the worry is that Hubener calls his own number a ton. However, he had 13 rushing TDs last season, and with KSU holding a team total of 33 points, there’s a good chance he finds the endzone at least once. On a site like DK with tough pricing, he provides much needed salary relief.

The KSU passing game has been a complete mess due to Hubener’s erratic arm so it’s a situation to avoid.

Elite Options – Joe Hubener, Charles Jones

Secondary Options – None

Texas Tech

There was some worry last weekend about the home/road splits for Patrick Mahomes and Jakeem Grant and those worries proved to be warranted as they produced a disappointing effort. However, this week they return home to face a Kansas State defense that is allowing 300 passing YPG so this is an excellent bounce back spot. Neither will come cheap but given the high total in this game, they are among the top options at their respective positions. Grant is Mahomes’ top option and the one safe option in the Tech passing game. I took a shot with Ian Sadler in some spots last weekend and came up empty as predicting the secondary Tech wide receiving options has been difficult the entire year. I’d lean to Sadler again, but given some of the value at WR elsewhere, I’m not sure it’s a guessing game I’m wanting to play this weekend.

Given Tech’s Air Raid passing attack, it’s come as a surprise but Deandre Washington has been a very steady fantasy producer. He has at least 19 carries in four straight games, and also sees plenty of work in the passing game. Kansas State has been average against the run allowing 4.3 YPC, but with Tech expected to score 38 points, Washington should have plenty of TD opportunities.

Elite Options – Patrick Mahomes, Jakeem Grant, Deandre Washington

Secondary Options – None

Miami (FL) Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels – O/U 66

Miami

Miami checks in with a team total of 26 points against a UNC defense that has played better this season. Their pass defense really jumps off the page, but when I look at who they’ve played I’m not as impressed as they’ve faced a lot of run heavy teams. That is born out in the fact that they are allowing over 200 yards rushing per game. Based on that as well as Miami’s team total of 26 points, I don’t mind Brad Kaaya as a secondary QB2 option on DK if you need salary relief. He returned from concussion last game and had a productive outing, and Miami is expected to be trailing throughout so he should see plenty of pass volume. He has some talented WR to distribute the ball to and Stacy Coley has finally started to live up to the recruiting hype he generated a few years ago. He’s still cheap on DK and is a viable source of salary relief given the tight salary cap.

The weakness of UNC’s defense has been their ability to stop the run so this is a solid spot for Joseph Yearby. He’s struggled lately, but he flashed solid upside at the beginning of the year, and the volume still looks to be there. The primary concern is UNC jumping out ahead and forcing the Hurricanes to the air.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Brad Kaaya, Joseph Yearby, Stacy Coley

North Carolina

Marquise Williams struggled to start the year but he’s finishing the year on a very nice run. He torched Duke last weekend for over 400 passing yards IN A HALF, and this UNC offense is really rolling. He also has chipped in six rushing TDs on the season and is a very talented runner, and given Miami’s immense struggles on defense, he’s a top-five option at QB on this slate.

The Canes are allowing over 200 rushing YPG on 5.5 YPC, which makes both Williams and Elijah Hood very attractive options. The primary concern with Hood has never been his talents, but rather his usage in the UNC offense. That has finally changed of late as he’s picked up at least 17 carries in three of his past four games. His price is on the rise and given some of his past usage issues in the UNC offense, I like him but am reserving him more for GPP territory.

Miami has been an average pass defense allowing 241 passing YPG, but they’re not a unit to fear. The bigger question as to the UNC passing game is whether there is a receiver that you can trust.Mack Hollins and Ryan Switzer have been the primary two targets lately, and both exploded last weekend. Neither offers secure volume in the passing game, but both can break the long play, and have plenty of GPP upside against this poor Miami defense.

Elite Options – Marquise Williams

Secondary Options – Elijah Hood, Mack Hollins, Ryan Switzer

Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers – O/U 56

Michigan

Michigan

Michigan heads on the road and draws an elite matchup with a very bad Indiana defense. De’veon Smith was said to be banged up last weekend, but he still had 15 carries for over a 100 total yards and a TD. As long as he gets 15 carries, he can put together a productive and outperform his cheap price tag so he’s a solid value saving option against a mediocre at best Indiana defense.

Indiana has been flat out terrible against the pass so the question is whether Jake Rudock can produce another outing similar to last week. On a site like FD, where there is plenty of value, I don’t see the need to take the risk, but on DK, he’s in consideration as a cheap QB2 against Indiana’s 127th ranked passing defense. Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson are his two primary targets at WR, and both reached the endzone last weekend. Given Michigan’s run heavy offense, they are very TD reliant, but the opportunity is there again this weekend for them to hit paydirt. On FD, Jake Butt is one of the elite options at TE and is coming off of a 100-yard receiving day.

Elite Options – Jake Butt (FD)

Secondary Options – De’veon Smith, Jake Rudock (DK), Jehu Chesson/Amara Darboh

Indiana

Indiana draws one of the toughest matchups on the board as Michigan has been one of the nations’ elite defenses this year. They’re a team that plays at a slow pace and plays great defense so they’re a team that I rarely target and that is unlikely to change this week as Michigan is top five against both the run and the pass. Jordan Howard was terrific last weekend, but his price is back on the rise so I’ll wait another week before jumping back on board. The Indiana trio of WR are all cheap, but Ricky Jones, Simmie Cobbs, and even Mitchell Paige have all been productive so it’s tough to peg which one to target. Indiana is expected to score 21 points here so one of them likely has a productive day but nailing down which one is a different story

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Simmie Cobbs, Ricky Jones

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs – O/U 52

Alabama

Fresh off their impressive win against LSU, Alabama will head on the road to face a solid Mississippi State team. Derrick Henry has put Alabama’s offense on his shoulder’s the past few weeks and has at least 26 carries in each of the past five weeks, including 38 last weekend. I do worry that those 38 carries last weekend could take their toll, but his volume and productivity have been great, and he is the type of back who can a big workload. He’s proven to be matchup proof and if you’re spending at RB, he’s right there with Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliot as the top options on the day.

Alabama is a run heavy offense but I’m feeling a Calvin Ridley week coming. He’s emerged as their top receiving option and while he hasn’t scored a TD in three weeks, he has registered seven receptions in each of those games. I’m not sold on this Bulldog pass defense as they really haven’t been tested. Given all the attention that Henry will take up, I think Ridley finally busts out in this one and love his price tag on both FD and DK.

Elite Options – Derrick Henry, Calvin Ridley

Secondary Options – NONE

Mississippi State

Alabama absolutely locked down Leonard Fournette last weekend, and what is even more scary is that they didn’t necessarily need to even load the box to do so. Vegas is telling us that State will score three TDs here, so there could be some fantasy potential. However, I typically stay far away from targeting this Tide defense, and that is the route I’ll be taking this weekend as I think they’re the best defense in the country. The only possibility is Dak Prescott and maybe *Fred Ross on DK where they are discounted. However, that is a route I’d only take in a large field tournament as I just don’t see the upside here, despite the fact that Dak Prescott is currently playing great football.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Dak Prescott (DK)

Jump to Page 1 2 3 4