CFB Grind Down: Week 11 - Late Slate (Page 2)

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-15 04:47:38

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears – O/U 76

Oklahoma

Elite Plays

Baker Mayfield ($9,200 FD, $7,900 DK) – I really like Mayfield’s price on DK and he should be a fantastic play on FD as well. He is in the highest total and highest pace game of the day with two offenses who have stud players at each position. I like Oklahoma’s passing game a lot more than the rush game, and while I think Perine and Mixon are OK plays, I am concentrating on Mayfield who should own the air in this one.

Sterling Shepard ($7,000 FD, $6,300 DK) – Shepard has taken a backseat at times this year, but an 11-catch game against Kansas and another TD last week in a blowout game against Iowa State prove he is ready for a breakout. He is not priced like Corey Coleman, but in the right situation could put up Coleman-type numbers for the air raid offense here. Mayfield is going to throw and throw some more and despite some early struggles, I would be surprised if Shepard did not hit 8 catches for 150 and a TD.

Secondary Plays

Durron Neal ($4,500 FD, $4,200 DK) – Neal caught 10 passes for 75 yards in the last game for Oklahoma and still manages to be minimum salary on FD. I really like him here as I noted above we should see a ton of passes and scores in this game from Oklahoma. The price is just too cheap here on FD, and he is a decent bargain on DK as well at $4,200.

Mark Andrews ($3,700 FD, $3,000 DK) – Andrews is a close second to Hooper in the TE rankings on FanDuel and also should be in play on DK at minimum salary. I do not typically use TE’s on DK but to be able to stack many other guys there it is definitely a good option to use Andrews.

h2 Baylor

Elite Plays

Jarrett Stidham ($8,900 FD, $7,800 DK) – I feel like Stidham is still underpriced here despite having one of the top QB prices on the board. He may not have the rushing opportunities that Russell did, but Stidham managed to throw for 400 yards on 23 passes against Kansas State and should be throwing the ball more times this game. He has the best WR in college football in Corey Coleman and has a lot of other playmakers in KD Cannon (who he seems to have a big rapport with) and Jay Lee. I would be surprised to see anything less than 400 yards and 4 total TDs.

Corey Coleman ($9,200 FD, $8,600 DK) – You will be hard pressed to find value while stacking Coleman and Stidham, but that might be a viable option still. Coleman is a monster, with multiple TDs in the last six games and three TDs in three of those six. He also has double-digit catch days in two of the last three games and Stidham is going to use him as a security blanket. Despite Oklahoma’s solid defense here, Coleman is the top WR on the board and you should fit him if you can.

Secondary Plays

KD Cannon ($5,400 FD, $5,100 DK) – Cannon is a boom or bust guy but it looks like Stidham is going to look his way a lot. Cannon was over 100 yards and caught a TD for the first time in a while last week and remains at a cheap price on FD and still affordable on DK. I want everything to do with this Baylor pass game in this one and would love a stack with Cannon/Coleman/Stidham.

Shock Linwood ($8,200 FD, $7,300 DK) – I like Linwood in this matchup as he should get a good number of carries as the game will be close. Linwood has not done much lately but he is still quick to hit the hole and is a great running back on a good offense. Stidham is going to throw a ton, but they may run a little bit more to control the game against Oklahoma. Not a top tier slam dunk like Coleman, but still decent.

Utah Utes at Arizona Wildcats – O/U 62

Utah

Elite Plays

Devontae Booker ($8,200 FD, $8,500 DK) – Booker’s price on FD is where you should really take advantage as he seems appropriately priced on DK. We all know that Booker is going to get all of the work for this Utah team and that their pass game is extremely volatile, so I will continue to only roll Booker in my lineups. Covey is a nice GPP gamble and Kenneth Scott should be somewhat considered but when Booker is touching it 35 times per game, the other guys are on the backburner. He is a great play today and should score two TDs against a lacking Arizona defense which usually is poor against the pass, but they will have their hands full with the Utah O-line.

Arizona

Elite Plays

None – Utah has an extremely tough defense and a great rush defense and this is not the spot to use Jared Baker or Nick Wilson if he does play. Both are cheap, but I would fade them as home dogs here and go with the guys below if I really want Arizona exposure.

Secondary Plays

Anu Solomon ($6,300 FD, $5,600 DK) – If you really want to scrape for some QB value, you could do a lot worse than Solomon. Once a top play, his value was destroyed by Jerrard Randall and now that he has regained the starting nod, he comes back into play with a lukewarm matchup. I expect Arizona to throw against a defense who gives up 250 through the air and 110 on the ground, plus game flow should be in his favor. I am expecting a solid game out of Anu here and his price is very, very nice.

Johnny Jackson ($4,500 FD, $4,000 DK) – I toyed with putting Jackson as an elite play here, but it is against Utah, Arizona is a dog and he is still somewhat unproven as a senior. The good part? He is min salary and caught eight passes last week. Solomon looks his way a ton and his value sees a huge jump with Anu at center. He is going to need to score which he was a monster at early in the season, so I think the $4,500 tag on FD is great and the 4k tag on DK is not bad either. I would also look at David Richards and Cayleb Jones, however Jones was invisible last week and Richards is inconsistent and I do not want too much on this offense.

Oregon State Beavers at California Golden Bears – O/U 59

Oregon State

None – This offense holds no upside for anyone at this time. The receivers are bad, the RBs do nothing and Nick Mitchell cannot move the ball. Oregon State is really, really bad and not a team you should be considering for fantasy.

California

Elite Plays

Daniel Lasco ($4,500 FD, $4,100 DK) – I was burned by Lasco last week as I thought he would get more than eight carries, but nothing worked for Cal in the running game against Oregon and were bailed out with the pass. Despite Muhammad being listed as the starter, Lasco played more and Enwere was the only one with a TD. Enwere does not have big play ability and is more of a bruiser while Lasco should be the guy who gets the lion’s share of the carries in this one. This is the best situation for Lasco to regain the starter’s role as Oregon State gives up 200 per game on the ground and Cal should run this game into the ground despite their “Bear Raid” philosophy.

Secondary Plays

Jared Goff ($8,000 FD, $7,300 DK) – The sites have priced Goff down and for good reason, he has not produced like a top tier QB lately and I am not sure it is coming today. One thing we know is that he is going to throw a good amount of times, but Oregon State’s pass defense is better than their run defense and I am expecting the rush game to take over. Goff makes a good GPP play in this sense in case something strange happens and Cal needs to throw, but I would not use him in cash.

Washington State Cougars at UCLA Bruins – O/U 65

Washington State

Elite Plays

None – I love Luke Falk and think he is going to throw for a ton of yards here, but I would rather have a guy like Stidham or Mayfield in my lineups this week. UCLA is a solid team and they have a great defense and with WSU only projected around 4 TDs in this game, I think this may be a time to fade Falk. The run game is horrible, so they will be passing but if UCLA can stop the pass, this could be over quick.

Secondary Plays

Luke Falk ($9,500 FD, $8,200 DK) – Falk is out of play for me on FD as that price is ridiculous, and on DK I am going to have a hard time fitting him in. He only went for 20 fantasy points against a solid defense like UCLA against the pass in Stanford, and I have to think that is a similar occurrence today. He is going to throw 40 times, but if he gets vultured by an RB or a trick play, he will be hard pressed to hit value at that price point. You cannot ever really count him out, but I won’t have exposure.

Gabe Marks/Dom Williams – If you really want exposure here, go with whichever guy’s salary fits in the best. They are going to catch balls as Falk is going to throw it 40+ times in this one, but the upside is limited against the top pass defense in the Pac-12. This is a situation I really want to fade but the pure volume makes it extremely tough.

UCLA

Elite Plays

Paul Perkins ($7,500 FD, $7,200 DK) – I keep waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting for Perkins to have a blowout game and it does not come. Is this it? He has a great matchup against a terrible rush defense in Washington State who allows over 200 yards per game and will have game flow in his corner. Perkins is a great RB who is going to get a lot of touches and I am very high on him here at a discount from the other top RBs. With Duarte ill, if he misses we can bet on seeing a ton of touches for Perkins.

Secondary Plays

Thomas Duarte ($6,800 FD, $5,600 DK) – I am not that high on Duarte this game because of the solid WSU pass defense, the fact that he is ill, and the fact that UCLA likely will not need to pass. That being said, He has emerged as the top target for Rosen and when in there is a dynamic receiver who can put up 8 catches for 150 and 2 TDs.

Temple Owls at South Florida Bulls – O/U 45

Temple

None – With Thomas banged up, Temple cut his carries in half and really let P.J. Walker air it out. I really do not trust anyone who went for the 60 points last week as they really spread the ball around. Robby Anderson is a decent play if Thomas is still questionable, but USF actually has a decent defense and should keep the score in this one low. This looks like a fade to me because of Thomas’ price, but if he for some reason cannot go full, Jager Gardner could be an interesting play.

South Florida

None – This game has the lowest total on the board and for good reason. Both teams have solid rush defenses and have a total defense in the top 45 in the nation. Both teams love to run the ball and will milk the clock on their possessions so this will be a very low tempo game. I see no reason to use the South Florida rush attack against a Temple team with a very, very impressive rush defense who only gives up 110 per game. Just find other value plays.

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