CFB Grind Down: Week 11 - Late Slate (Page 3)

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-14 22:12:51

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels at Colorado State Rams – O/U 60

UNLV

Elite Plays

Devonte Boyd ($5,100) – Has anyone in the nation been happier to get his QB back than Boyd? Since Decker has rejoined the starters, Boyd has gone for 10 for 116 and 6 for 120 and appears primed to do the same today against a solid Colorado State pass defense. I would tone down the expectations, but Boyd is the one big playmaker here and I think he gets enough catches to shatter value.

Secondary Plays

Keith Whitely ($4,400) – UNLV runs a ridiculous three-man rotation at RB making a lot of the RBs completely useless. Whitely was great in the last game against Hawaii whose defense is just more miserable than Colorado State’s is. Whitely has been bad this entire year but the extra carries in the last game would be nice here. This is a risky play but due to price, he can be used.

Colorado State

Elite Plays

Rashard Higgins ($6,400) – Higgins has had an extremely disappointing year with Stevens under center but remains one of the top WRs in the game. UNLV has a terrible pass defense and I would expect Stevens to look Higgins’ way early and often in this game. There have been some circumstances holding Higgins back, but with Stevens ready to unleash the beast, I think this is the breakout game we have been waiting for and I would not hold Higgins out of your lineup at this price.

Secondary Plays

None – If Oden is out again, I could use using Dalyn Dawkins, but if Oden plays, I would expect them to split carries and would really not like either as I expect Stevens to throw a lot in this game. I am not really on Stevens either as I think there are better cheap QBs around, and will limit my exposure to Higgins.

Brigham Young Cougars at Missouri Tigers – O/U N/A

BYU

None – This game is going to have one of the lowest over/unders as well if it ever gets lined. Missouri is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and despite the issues with protests we should get this game at Arrowhead Stadium. I have no idea really what to think here, except for the fact that Missouri is a good defensive team and should be able to shut BYU’s offense down who is finally getting Adam Hine back to full strength and will likely cut into Algernon Brown’s carries. I like Brown here if Hine is out again, but Missouri is very, very good against the run and a full fade might be the best thing.

Missouri

None – Missouri is a terrible offensive team and with the controversy of racism and the protests, this just seems like a fade for me. The team is not good to begin with, and they have no real fantasy plays at all. The defense is what keeps them in games and I just cannot get on board picking anyone here in a situation which could turn ugly, and maybe a game does not get played at all.

New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos – O/U 57

New Mexico

None – DK really picked a few doozies to include on the night slate with teams that just seem to fill the player pool and really give no reason to choose them. Gipson has been the only worthwhile player on this team, but his price is around some other guys I would rather have at $4,500. New Mexico is actually projected under 2 TDs, and unless you really need a $4,500 QB, I would look elsewhere than Lamar Jordan as well.

Boise State

Elite Plays

Jeremy McNichols ($7,600) – McNichols may be the safest play on the board today against a horrible New Mexico team who should get bashed in by a solid Boise team. New Mexico is solid against the pass but gives up about 200 yards on the ground to the run, so McNichols should get his 25-30 carries in this one and produce about 200 all-purpose yards. If he gets into the end zone a few times, there’s a good bonus.

Thomas Sperbeck ($6,200) – Sperbeck is a beast and has been destroying opposing defenses for the last few weeks. He is Rypien’s favorite target and the #1 option in this offense and despite a solid New Mexico defense, should be in line for another solid week. His price refuses to rise which is why I like him as an elite option as he has been at or over 20 fantasy points in his last six and should reach that number again.

Secondary Plays

Brett Rypien ($6,700) – Rypien threw 53 times in the last game, but it was more because he needed to. He will not need to in this game and it should be out of hand early making the running game do a lot of the work in the second half. Rypien is cheap and if he scores a few in the first half could come close to value, but he is GPP only for me.

Wyoming Cowboys at San Diego State Aztecs – O/U 51

Wyoming

None – Wyoming, like New Mexico, is under two projected touchdowns and does not have anyone worthy of a play on this slate. Cameron Coffman will be back in this game, however, Maulhardt’s salary has gone up and while he is a solid target in the end zone, I am not sure I can bring myself to roster him. Maulhardt is the only guy I would consider here as the Aztecs have a top 10 defense in the nation and will run this game into the ground.

San Diego State

Elite Plays

Donnell Pumphrey ($8,300) – Pumphrey has been doing his thing this year as the last time he was under 20 fantasy points was Week 2. He will again cross 20 and I would not be surprised if he was over 40 in this game against a Wyoming defense who allows 220 yards on the ground and is filled with holes. Pumphrey gets a ton of work in this offense and as a workhorse back will have every opportunity to succeed in a great matchup. He is my top RB today.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawaii Warriors – O/U 55

Fresno State

Elite Plays

Marteze Waller ($5,000) – Waller has been a workhorse for Fresno State this year and has put up some numbers in the last few games despite not having great matchups. He gets a matchup against Hawaii today who allows 260 yards on the ground and at 5,000 I am not sure how you leave him out of your lineups. Fresno is not good, but Hawaii’s run defense is worse and a 5k RB with 20 guaranteed carries against this run defense is too good to pass up.

Hawaii

Elite Plays

Paul Harris ($4,500) – I really do not mind an RB stack at the end of the day here as Fresno is a bit better against the run, giving up 240 yards per game, but still terrible. Harris had 20 carries and went nuts in the last game against a solid rush defense, and with Woolsey being named the starter again, it would not shock me for Harris to again get 20 carries as they try to keep the ball out of his hands. The receivers on these teams bring absolutely no upside because of the terrible QB play, and the RBs are huge value as they are so cheap. Use these guys at the end of the day.

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