CFB Grind Down: Week 12 - Late Slate - Page 3

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-21 16:40:04

San Diego State Aztecs at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels – O/U 54

San Diego State

Elite Plays

Donnel Pumphrey $7,900 – I am still regarding Pumphrey as an elite play here, as he is one of the top RBs in the nation in a run-centric offense, but he does have some value taken away by Chase Price, who has been great when stepping in for him. I think the two will end up getting closer to a timeshare with Pumphrey having the better portion of the carries, but I doubt we see Pumphrey over 25 carries much anymore. UNLV is not a great defense so this is a good spot for both RBs, but I prefer Pumphrey despite the price on Price.

Secondary Plays

Chase Price $4,700 – As noted above, Price is going to get a decent amount of carries for the Aztecs and should be considered here if you really need some value, but he is going to be receiving mop up duty. The winners of the GPPs last week had Price, so he is definitely in play, but to me just a GPP gamble.

UNLV

Elite Plays

Devonte Boyd $5,200 – Boyd is still extremely cheap after getting his QB in Decker back, and has only gone for 24 catches and almost 370 yards in his last three games. Even against a top 10 defense in the country, Boyd is an elite athlete and will get his catches. He is definitely in play here.

Secondary Plays

None – UNLV has an 18 point over under and outside of Boyd there is no one I want. San Diego State has a great defense and is going to shut down the rushing game and I doubt anyone outside of Boyd will be able to move the chains in this game.

Colorado Buffaloes at Washington State Cougars – O/U 62

Colorado

Elite Plays

None – There are other teams in better spots and I do not trust any of the other WRs here outside of Nelson Spruce. I would not use Spruce in a GPP either because he has limited upside and seems stuck around the 7 for 70 mark in almost every game. I do not like Liufau and their running game is a mess, making this one situation that I am avoiding even against a typically poor defense in Washington State

Washington State

Elite Plays

Luke Falk $8,300 – Falk is one of my favorite plays at QB if you can afford him this week. He throws it 50+ times per game, and even in a situation where Washington State is leading, he is going to continue to throw as they have absolutely no running game. Falk is one of the top QBs against a poor Colorado defense at home and this is looking like WSU should score a good number of points in this one.

Gabe Marks $6,900 – Marks is the top WR in this offense, and while he will take some bumps in the games and is not Corey Coleman like, we can at least bank on around eight catches and a couple of touchdowns. Marks is a great talent and there is not a back on Colorado who can consistently cover him.

Dom Williams $6,000 – Williams is the #2 in this offense and should see a good number of targets again. There is no problem with pairing Falk with either of these guys as they can get you an easy 100 points between the three of them, and then you just need to figure out the rest of the lineup. Williams has scored and gone over 100 yards in two straight and will look to do it again against a poor secondary.

Secondary Plays

River Cracraft $4,400 – You could go with Cracraft here but he has been somewhat of a forgotten commodity in the last few games. The catches for the slot guy just are not there but if you really want exposure to this offense for a cheap price he gives it to you, just do not be surprised if he does not hit his required value and the other two, better WRs shatter value.

San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Warriors – O/U 53

San Jose State

Elite Plays

Tyler Ervin $8,400 – Ervin has not been good in the last two games but gets a cake matchup here against a Hawaii team thathas given up 250 yards on the ground per game this year. There is no reason for Potter to do much of anything but hand the ball off to one of the best RBs in the country that no one knows about and let him do work. Ervin is going to see a plethora of carries and in a game against New Mexico with a similar statistical defense, Ervin carried 36 times for 263 yards.

Secondary Plays

Kenny Potter $5,700 – I would much rather have Ervin, but if you really want to zig when others zag, Potter could be an interesting play. He had success running against a much better defense in the last game than what the Spartans will see out of Hawaii and was very effective putting up 30 fantasy points. The price is fairly good here – a 30 point fantasy game is very nice for a punt QB, but he has not been effective the rest of the year and I would watch out.

Hawaii

None – Wittek was terrible in relief of the worse Woolsey and this offense has no upside. Harris is decent, but not good enough to make up for the lack of the rest of the offense. I am almost completely fading Hawaii here although I think if Wittek starts there is some merit to using Marcus Kemp who has been a decent target of Wittek’s all season, and considering Pedroza is lost for the season, Kemp will see an uptick and is extremely cheap.