CFB Grind Down: Week 13 - Late Slate - Page 2

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-28 22:15:53

Colorado State Rams at Fresno State Bulldogs – O/U 58.5

Colorado State

Elite Plays

Dalyn Dawkins ($5,800 FD, $4,900 DK) – Oden is doubtful for this game against Fresno State, so the running game will be all Dawkins in this one. With Colorado State as one of the top performing projected teams of the day with 5 projected touchdowns, there should be enough to go around especially with Fresno State’s absolutely atrocious rush defense. They have one of the worst rush defenses in the country allowing over 220 yards per game on the ground so expect 25 carries from Dawkins and a nice 150 and a score day for cheap.

Rashard Higgins ($7,500 FD, $6,700 DK) – Higgins is a fantastic play here against Fresno State who not only has a terrible rush defense but a terrible pass defense as well. I like Dawkins just a little bit more than Higgins but Rashard is trying to make up for lost stat time earlier in the season as he is one of the best WRs in CFB. Higgins had 8 for 140 last week in a solid matchup and I would expect around the same this week.

Fresno State

Elite Plays

None – Fresno just is not good on offense and even with Waller getting a lot of carries and the over/under for them at 3 TDs I just cannot see anyone I really want to use here. Greenlee had a ridiculous 12 for 41 performance last week in a miserable game against BYU and Anderson also got some work but was not good either. This team just does not ooze any fantasy potential whatsoever.

Secondary Plays

Jamire Jordan ($4,500 FD, $3,900 DK) – Jordan is min priced here and caught 8 passes last week, all of the very short variety so he will get some work if you need a really cheap WR on either site. Sadly, this was Fresno’s best way of moving the football but Colorado State has a solid pass defense so I would not expect much.

Arizona State Sun Devils at California Bears – O/U 69

Arizona State

Elite Plays

Kalen Ballage ($5,100) – With Richard questionable for this game with an ankle injury, look for Ballage to take a lot more snaps than usual and have a very good game against a California team giving up 200 yards per game on the ground. Ballage’s price is too low here for a guy likely to have the main workload in this offense and he should be a fantastic play today.

Devin Lucien ($5,200) – Lucien may have finally broken out in this offense with his 9 catch, 190 yard performance in the last game and likely will fill the big play/#1 receiver role for the rest of the games. His price is still extremely cheap and in the last big total game of the night, I like him to have another solid game as Arizona State will likely be trying to win this from behind.

Secondary Plays

Mike Bercovici ($7,000) – If you do not want to use any of the other QBs on the slate, look at Bercovici who is playing in the highest total game of the night and will likely be playing from behind in an away game. He has an emerging threat in Lucien and other weapons in D.J. Foster and Tim White on the outside to throw to and could end up with a very good game against a Cal defense usually bad against the run but also vulnerable to the pass.

Tim White ($4,800) – White looks like he has the short yardage and slot receiver plays down and will be getting around 8 or so catches in this game. If he is able to break a couple for big games and improve the YAC number, I would really like his potential in a high scoring game. White is extremely cheap and this ASU offense is in a great spot here.

California

Elite Plays

Tre Watson ($3,800) – I am not really surprised to see Watson handed the starting RB role as California has had no one who could step up and really take it until Watson showed his speed in the last couple of games. All of the other RBs are either injured (Lasco) or really had no upside (Enwere, Muhammad). We will see what Watson is made of here in a matchup with Arizona State who actually has a good rush defense. The price is why I really like him, not the matchup.

Jared Goff ($7,400) – Goff’s price is so cheap here for a guy going to throw the ball 50 times per game against a defense who gives up 300 yards per game. I like Goff for 400 yards and 4 scores, and the trick is picking who he throws them to. There is a good way to get a piece of those TDs though, and it is just to take Goff who will be a part of those TDs no matter what.

Secondary Plays

Bryce Treggs/Darius Powe/Trevor Davis – All three guys are in play here as they will all see a good number of passes thrown their way especially if Kenny Lawler has to sit. If we get the all clear on Lawler, I would likely enjoy using him as well but these are the three guys who Goff is throwing to now. Trevor Davis is a great play at 3,100 who should see about 5 catches for 50 yards and hopefully a score with big upside, and Treggs appears to be the #1 with Lawler ailing. All three are solid, but playing Cal WR roulette is never fun.

Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos – O/U 53

Air Force

Elite Plays

None – A triple option offense is never really one that you want to use for fantasy purposes as it is extremely unlikely that you can predict who is going to get the carries. Even against a bad defense in New Mexico, I am not big on any of these guys here who are all priced fairly appropriately.

Secondary Plays

Jalen Robinette ($4,700) – Generally, the Air Force team does nothing through the air, but when they do, it comes by Robinette. He has been great in the last two game and had a random 7 catch, 210 yard game against Utah State. If they are going to throw, it will be to him and he even caught a TD against Boise so maybe they are going to keep him involved in the game plan as things go along.

Jacobi Owens ($5,000) – Owens is the only other guy I would consider here as he gets the bulk of the carries out of the backfield for the Falcons. If the defense takes him away through, we could be looking at Roberts or another guy in the backfield getting the pitches and I’m just not sure that Owens can be looked at as a top tier guy. He does score often, and he has had massive games but the question about the workload is still there.

New Mexico

None – Air Force has a top 15 defense in the nation and I would be surprised if New Mexico hit the over/under here and scored the 21 points that Vegas is predicting. New Mexico is bad on both sides of the ball, and with a heavy rush attack involved in Air Force, and a heavy rushing QB in Jordan with Gipson also taking a chunk of carries, we will again see a clock bled down to limit the number of possessions.

Nevada Wolfpack at San Diego State Aztecs – O/U 50

Nevada

Elite Plays

None – We have not seen a lot of Nevada this year but their QB in Stewart has no real upside and the WRs do not have any upside either as the 2 RBs who split time in Butler and Jackson are going to carry the ball likely over 40 times in the game. With none of the other skill positions in play, and San Diego State’s solid defense and the over/under saying Nevada might only reach the end zone twice, I think we can ignore most of the players here.

Secondary Plays

James Butler ($5,600) – Butler has been better than Don Jackson in the last bit of time and he should be getting more carries soon, but unfortunately Jackson is still outcarrying him by about 5. San Diego State’s 100 yards per game rushing defense is extremely stout and I would be hard pressed to even think about using Butler today, he is only on my radar because of how solid he has been at getting into the end zone recently. This is a very risky play.

Connecticut Huskies at Temple Owls – O/U 41

Connecticut

None – This is almost a game you can ignore completely. Both teams have a top 50 defense and both are solid at taking away what the other team does best, in run the ball. We should see a lot of rush plays that end in short yardage situations, lots of clock run, and very few possessions in this one and the over/under agrees. UConn is projected for 2 scores, which does not bode well especially with their QB questionable. This is an easy fade for me, even for Arkeel Newsome who is a workhorse in the back as I doubt he has success against a Temple rush defense allowing about 120 yards per game on the ground.

Temple

Elite Plays

None – Jahad Thomas still appears to have a lingering rib injury and with Temple not really playing for a whole lot at this point, if he is still hurting I really do not expect him to get many carries against a tough UConn rush defense. Instead of Thomas, it has been a multitude of guys picking up the slack and most of all PJ Walker throwing the ball more.

Secondary Plays

Robby Anderson ($5,500) – If Thomas is still banged up, look for Walker to throw a bit more and use Robby Anderson who is still fairly cheap on FanDuel. Robby has not caught a lot of TDs recently and this UConn defense is fairly good, but who else is going to score the 3 TDs projected for Temple? I also decently like whoever slots in at RB, although I would wait to see news on Thomas before making that decision.

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