CFB Grind Down: Week 6 (Late) Page Three
San Jose State Spartans at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels – O/U 50
| San Jose State Spartans | UNLV Runnin’ Rebels | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.5 | -3 | 72.40 | 23.5 | 3 | |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 237.40 | 202.40 | Offense | ||
| Opp Def | Opp Def | 97.20 | 235.80 | ||
| Opp Def Rank | 73rd | 110th | Opp Def Rank | 76th | 121st |
Breakdown
San Jose State
Elite Plays
Tyler Ervin (8,300) – Ervin is a true workhorse back who was able to put up some solid numbers, even on Auburn with 160 yards on 27 carries. We should be looking Ervin’s way a lot especially here against UNLV who has allowed almost 200 yards per game rushing on the season. Roll Ervin out with confidence as he will touch the ball 30 times in this game and 200 with three TDs seems plausible.
Secondary Plays
None – Ervin takes all of the snaps for this team and does not let anyone else have any meat on the bone for their fantasy stats. Not a great situation for anyone else, but Ervin is a great play.
UNLV
None – I naturally cannot get on board with using any UNLV QB or WR with SJSU’s top secondary (they have only allowed 97 yards per game this season) so I will look at the RBs as their D-Line has been gashed allowing 235 yards per game. Whitely and Campbell are the two guys here that you would want to grab, but UNLV’s rushing attack is not anything to bring home to mother and most likely I will be just fading this one from the UNLV side.
Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons – O/U 56
| Wyoming Cowboys | Air Force Falcons | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.25 | 23.5 | 70.20 | 69.50 | 39.75 | -23.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 227.60 | 168.80 | Offense | 91.25 | 326.25 |
| Opp Def | 161.50 | 137.50 | Opp Def | 191.60 | 215.60 |
| Opp Def Rank | 91st | 26th | Opp Def Rank | 41st | 76th |
Breakdown
Wyoming
None – I would normally like Tanner Gentry due to game flow and talent, however he is questionable at this point in the week, and if he does not play there is really nothing here that interests me. Air Force is another top defense in the country and should be able to hold a Wyoming passing attack which will possibly be missing its top WR. Two touchdowns is all that Wyoming is projected to score here and they really are going to struggle to do that. Just avoid this team.
Air Force
None – Triple option teams are DFS players’ nightmares as they rarely have one player who consistently stands out and their fantasy stats are based on what the defense wants to take away. Air Force has no real dominant ball carrier and while D.J. Johnson was great in their wins, he has had some fumbling issues lately and has seen his carries reduced. Just fade this team instead of playing the lottery here.
Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs – O/U 48
| Utah State Aggies | Fresno State Bulldogs | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.5 | -11 | 66.00 | 66.60 | 18.5 | 11 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 168.50 | 157.75 | Offense | 169.40 | 122.40 |
| Opp Def | 224.00 | 213.20 | Opp Def | 215.75 | 107.50 |
| Opp Def Rank | 120th | 113rd | Opp Def Rank | 109th | 35th |
Breakdown
Utah State
Elite Plays
Kent Myers ($5,800) – Myers was awfully impressive in his first start against Colorado State, rushing for 191 yards and completing just over half of his passes for a TD as well. Fresno State’s defense is significantly worse than CSU and the Aggies are a solid favorite here. Myers is in play in all formats and is one of my favorite QBs on the slate for this price due to his running upside. I took it easy on him last week as I was not sure what we would get, but at this point, he is safe to deploy.
Secondary Plays
Hunter Sharp ($5,600) – I do not love Sharp here, but for $5,600, he is still a solid play. He is the clear-cut #1 for Utah State and is a solid receiver with a track record to back him up. Myers at QB hurts him a little bit, however, he still managed to catch a TD pass last week. I really like him with a Myers pair in a GPP as you could get exposure to six Utah State TDs.
Fresno State
None – Waller is banged up, Greenlee is awful and Utah State ranks in the top 20 for defensive efficiency this year. Vegas projects Fresno for just under 20 points here and as an 11-point dog at home, I think we can find other better spots to fill our rosters despite how cheap the Bulldogs’ players are.