CFB Grind Down: Week 6 (Late) Page Two

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-10-10 01:55:46

Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles – O/U 51

Breakdown

Miami (FL)

None – Miami is projected to score around 21 points here and I just cannot get on board with them. There are better options with better over/unders who are not playing FSU, who has a top 5 defense in the nation right now. Look elsewhere for value.

Florida State

Elite Plays

Dalvin Cook ($7,700 FD, $8,400 DK) – FSU’s offense has not been great for fantasy this year, as Golson is not providing monster games. The receiving duties are split between Rudolph and Wilson and neither are breaking out each game as they are more relying on a solid defense to get the job done. The most electric playmaker is Cook, who can bust off a 75-yard TD run whenever he touches the ball – the problem is, where is his health? He was ripe for a monster game after his long TD early in the last game, but could not return due to his hamstring. These are fickle injuries and I am concerned that he is a little hobbled which really scares me here. If we can get confirmation he is 90%, he is an elite play, anything less, he is a secondary GPP gamble. The price difference is huge and on DK for me he is way down the list but FanDuel priced him at a bargain so I would look there if we can get confirmation of his status.

Michigan State Spartans at Rutgers Scarlet Knights – O/U 54

Breakdown

Michigan State

Elite Plays

Aaron Burbridge – ($6,100 FD, $5,500 DK) – Burbridge is too cheap on DraftKings and should be used in a lot of lineups. The Spartans committed to the run against Purdue and with the last three games getting too close for comfort in the second half, I expect Dantonio to come out firing. I doubt we have to worry about Burbridge getting targets here – Kings is questionable to play and there are no other reliable receivers on the field, and Burbridge has made great strides in his game just like Lippett did last year. Rutgers allows almost 300 yards per game passing and the MSU offense will be out for blood.

Secondary Plays

L.J. Scott ($6,200 FD, $5,200 DK) – Scott has worked his way to the top of the depth chart for MSU like a lot of us thought would happen by the end of the season. He had a great game last time out against Purdue with two TDs, but his upside is still limited as it still appears that Dantonio is committed to giving London carries. Scott is the guy I want to own here though – he is more explosive and carries better big play ability. He is only a secondary play due to this and the fact that Rutgers is easily attacked through the air due to depletion in their secondary.

Monty Madaris ($4,500 FD, $3,000 DK) – At min-price, this is a salary relief/GPP play only. I have seen some people talk about Arnett, but Madaris is really the guy you want to own. Dantonio thinks highly of his freshman WR who is big and strong, and if Kings is out again this game, we could see a lot of sets with Madaris. If you need a complete punt, you could do a lot worse as I expect Cook to throw a good number of times in this game, and one touchdown basically puts Madaris at value.

Rutgers

Elite Plays

Leonte Carroo ($7,200 FD, $5,900 DK) – Obviously we should wait until we can confirm Carroo is in the lineup, but he is one of the top WR’s in the country and should be able to attack an MSU defense which is losing the war of attrition and is not as strong as last year. Carroo has big play ability which has burned the MSU defense at times this year and Rutgers should be behind most of the game and forced into throwing.

Secondary Plays

None – Rutgers has not shown anything in their first few games to use guys like James or Laviano or any of the other guys on the offense, especially against Michigan State. Rutgers is a big dog today and even though Michigan State has been fairly poor on defense this season, just stay away from the Rutgers team.

California Golden Bears at Utah Utes – O/U 62

Breakdown

California

Elite Plays

Kenny Lawler ($6,800 FD, $6,200 DK) – While I am not big on Goff here (I think he is too expensive and Utah’s defense is impressive), I do think there is merit in using Lawler or Treggs. Lawler has emerged as the clear-cut #1 option and looks good for six catches for 100 yards each and every game. Game flow should go his way and he is definitely affordable especially at the $6,800 price point on FanDuel.

Utah

Elite Plays

Devonte Booker ($9,700 FD, $9,000 DK) – Booker is ridiculously expensive, but he has to be as he receives the majority of the touches on this offense. Utah has no qualms about using him religiously and Booker will continue to get 30 touches per game. Cal has a decent run defense and they have improved greatly this year which is why I am not 100% all in on Booker (I love Richard 10x more), but I think Booker makes a solid GPP play with a high floor and low ownership. There will be touchdowns here – will Wilson vulture some?

Secondary Plays

Travis Wilson ($7,600 FD, $7,000 DK) – Wilson has been great this year, and with his legs has really done some damage. This Utah team is better than everyone thought and now come into this game with one of the highest over/unders on the slate and a mid-price QB with running upside. People are usually all over guys like this, but I have not seen many on him this week which means I think Wilson could be an extremely solid GPP play. Most of the offense runs through Booker – but Wilson has not had any issue hitting 4x in solid matchups and this is one as Cal, despite improvements, still struggles to stop the pass.

Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils – O/U 56

Breakdown

Colorado

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays

Phillip Lindsay/Christian Powell – I am not a big fan of Colorado here, as I think Liufau does not have the upside we want and Nelson Spruce has been just average for the price this year. The matchup does not get easier as the Buffs have to travel to Tempe to take on an ASU team who are 15-point favorites in a lower total. If Adkins misses this game, Powell and Lindsay will split carries again and again, both are cheap. Do not expect much from them – the matchup is worse than last week but sometimes you just need a punt flier to make your team great and these guys can provide the 12 points for $3,900 you might need.

Arizona State

Elite Plays

Demario Richard ($7,300 FD, $7,400 DK) – I really think that Richard is the top play on this slate, especially on DraftKings where his price is miniscule. Colorado has given up 190 rush yards per game and with Richard getting the bulk of the carries and involved in the passing game he has a 20-point floor and 50-point upside here with game flow going his way. He is my favorite option on this slate and I will have a lot of exposure.

Secondary Plays

Mike Bercovici ($8,100 FD, $7,000 DK) – Bercovici really has not been a great option at any point this year which should keep his ownership down. Colorado does not have a good defense and we could see his best game of the year here. He continues to spread the ball around and throws it over 40 times per game making his floor fairly solid. I do not even mind a Richard/Bercovici stack due to the number of targets Richard gets in the passing game.

Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams – O/U 60

Breakdown

Colorado State

Elite Plays

Rashard Higgins ($7,400) – Higgins is a top play at WR despite the slate and even with a new QB under center in Stevens, he can still get Higgins the ball. I do not love the price with CSU as a substantial dog here, but they should be playing from behind and their only option will be to get Higgins the ball. Rashard is in play on almost every site if you can fit him in and I love him in GPPs this week.

Boise State

Elite Plays

Jeremy McNichols ($7,600) – This is one of the highest scoring games on the slate as they are at 60 points which means that someone is going to score. Boise is projected around 37 points right now, and with them leading the whole way, I can see McNichols getting around 30 touches. McNichols is a beast and should be able to turn those carries into multiple TDs and over 150 yards. He is one of my top RB plays, especially against a CSU team who has stopped the pass but been gashed by opponent running games this year.

Secondary Plays

Brett Rypien ($6,300) – Rypien remains cheap and he remains an efficient way to go at QB. The problem here is that game flow might not exactly go his way and that CSU has one of the best pass defenses in the MWC. The Rypien to Sperbeck combo is tempting to use, but it is a secondary option in my eyes as I can see BSU riding McNichols into the sunset here.

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