CFB Grind Down: Week 7 (Late): Page 3
Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies – O/U 59.5
| Oregon Ducks | Washington Huskies | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.25 | 3 | 78.83 | 61.60 | 31.25 | -3 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 210.00 | 318.67 | Offense | 232.00 | 112.60 |
| Opp Def | 204.40 | 121.60 | Opp Def | 323.50 | 151.17 |
| Opp Def Rank | 42nd | 44th | Opp Def Rank | 117th | 54th |
Oregon
Elite Plays
Royce Freeman ($9,700 FD, $8,600 DK) – It appears as if Adams might play in this game, but that matters not to me. Oregon has become a run-centric team and Freeman is the best guy for it. He has 27 carries in each of the last two games against WSU and Colorado and while neither of their defenses set the world on fire, it is not like Washington is great at defense either. This game should be close, so no pulling of the starters late, and an electric playmaker like Freeman is going to get a LOT of touches today. Freeman might be my favorite RB pound-for-pound on this slate.
Secondary Plays
None – If Adams starts I may look at a guy like Bralon Addison, but I really do not want a part of this Oregon pass game as I think they are ahead early and run Freeman into the ground. The Oregon pass game has never been about one or two guys and it has always been good because of volume, but now with a run-centered game, it is hard to pick out a great player.
Washington
Elite Plays
Jake Browning ($6,300 FD, $5,300 DK) – While I really think this is an extremely risky play, I like Browning’s upside here and ability to allow us to roster a lot of big RBs. Despite having two horrible games lately, Browning has thrown 30 times in each game and if he can raise his completion rate to 70% and throw a couple of TDs, he could have a 20-point fantasy game. It is a gamble here, but we need value and I am not a big fan of many QBs on this slate outside of Boykin. Be wary here, but Oregon’s pass defense has allowed 323 yards per game and is one of the absolute, if not the absolute, worst in the country.
Secondary Plays
Jaydon Mickens/Joshua Perkins – Whichever guy is cheaper is probably my play here, as I can stack Browning with a cheap WR on Washington and use the upside. Washington does not have a clear-cut leader in the pass game so either of these guys is risky, but picking Browning and the right WR stack could pay off huge here.
San Diego State Aztecs at San Jose State Spartans – O/U 48
| San Diego State Aztecs | San Jose State Spartans | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.75 | 2.5 | 67.67 | 72.33 | 25.25 | -2.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 151.00 | 180.33 | Offense | 252.67 | 187.83 |
| Opp Def | 117.17 | 227.50 | Opp Def | 217.17 | 104.33 |
| Opp Def Rank | 3rd | 118th | Opp Def Rank | 72nd | 16th |
San Diego State
Elite Plays
Donnel Pumphrey ($8,500) – This is assuming that Pumphrey plays as he received 30 carries in the last game and looked great. Pumphrey is a top back in the nation and despite this being a lower scoring game we can be sure if he is healthy he is going to receive all possible carries in this game. While SJSU has a solid pass defense, they are allowing 225 yards per game rushing and Pumphrey is just the guy to take over here. If Pumphrey is out for some reason, Chase Price instantly becomes a must-play at RB, however, at this point it appears that there is no danger of Donnell missing this clash.
Secondary Plays
None – SDSU does not pass the ball hardly ever, and none of the WRs are in play here. Their lack of passes combined with the fact that both teams are going to run the ball a ton makes the possessions lower and the WRs garbage for fantasy.
San Jose State
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tyler Ervin ($8,800) – While Tyler Ervin definitely seems like an elite play, I think I actually like Pumphrey more in this one. His price is just a little bit cheaper and despite Ervin receiving as many touches, I think the poor SJSU run defense matched up with the solid SDSU run defense makes Pumphrey the better play. It is hard to argue with Ervin though who has been one of the greatest breakout backs in the country, but my guess is here that he is not going to be worth the $8,800.