CFB Grind Down: Week 9 Early Slate - Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-30 14:57:05

Colorado Buffaloes at UCLA Bruins – O/U 63

Colorado

There’s not a whole lot I’m liking from Colorado this week. The weakness of the UCLA defense has been their inability to stop the run, but Colorado has struggled to run the ball and both Philip Lindsay and Christian Powell might split carries.

Sefo Liufau does make for an interesting cheap QB2 on DK at just $6,100. It’s a tough matchup, but he’s logged double digit carries in four straight games, and has attempted at least 40 passes in three of his last four games. That’s some big time volume for his price point and with Colorado expected to be trailing, he should have to take to the air. He could also get one of his top weapons back in Shay Fields. The other Colorado WR to know is Nelson Spruce. He hasn’t shown the upside that he did last year as he typically hovers around 6 receptions for 60 to 70 yards but hasn’t scored many TDs.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Sefo Liufau (DK), Shay Fields/Nelson Spruce

UCLA

The UCLA offense is in a great spot as they have a healthy team tota of 42 points and Colorado has struggled against both the pass (79th) as well as the run (109th). The first big question here is the status of Paul Perkins, who left their last game with an injury. I was excited about rostering his backup Soso Jamabo but things look to be trending towards Perkins playing. You’ll have to check back closer to kick off to see if Perkins is a go as I like the UCLA running game in this spot against a Colorado defense allowing 5.2 YPC.

Josh Rosen has picked it up late as he has 40 pass attempts in two straight games and has thrown for over 300 yards in each. The UCLA offense should be able to move the ball with ease and it’s only a question of whether they attack Colorado through the air or on the ground. On FD, I’d just rather pay the extra $700 and get Brandon Doughty or drop down to Cody Kessler at $8,000, but he’s a solid tournament pivot and makes for a solid option on DK as well. The UCLA WR have been a bit tougher to predict and either Jordan Payton or Thomas Duarte could have a nice game here. Payton started the year off strong, but Duarte has been the guy of late as he has TD receptions in four straight games. Neither one is particularly cheap and given the coin flip scenario between the two, they are in GPP only territory for me but each has the ability to go for 100+ receiving yards with a TD.

Elite Options – Paul Perkins/Soso Jamabo

Secondary Options – Josh Rosen, Thomas Duarte, Jordan Payton

Maryland Terrapins at Iowa Hawkeyes – O/U 53

Maryland

Maryland has been an offense to avoid this year, and they’re facing a solid Iowa defense with a team total of just 18 points. Based on that, there’s just not much to dig into here. The one big surprise has been the emergence of Perry Hills in the running game. I’m not sure where it came from but he has 51 carries for 294 yards over the last two weeks against Penn State and Ohio State. He’s not a very good passer but if he keeps getting that type of usage in the run game then he’s a guy that we’ll have to pay attention too. He’s still cheap on DK as a QB2. However, Iowa is 4th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game and has allowed only 2.6 YPC on the season so the matchup is very very tough. Based on the matchup, I’ll likely pass this week but he’s worth monitoring for down the road.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Perry Hills

Iowa

Iowa checks in with a team total of 35 points, which is one of the higher totals we have seen for Iowa this year. Their players are all very affordable so there could be some value here against a Maryland defense that is 109th in passing yards allowed per game and 91st in rushing yards. C. J. Beathard struggled against a solid defense Northwestern, and was apparently banged up but is supposedly feeling better after their bye week. I think he could be a sneaky QB punt option for tournaments. He’s not that great of a QB so he’s a guy who will struggle against solid defenses, but he’s taken advantage of the weaker defenses this year. He was completely shut down by Northwestern and Wisconsin, but he’s produced at least 18.9 DK points in every other game. Maryland coughed up a big game to Christian Hackenberg and has struggled against the pass all year long so I think he’s a viable source of salary relief in tournaments.

Beathard’s top target at WR has been Matt Vandeberg, who hasn’t been overly productive, but Iowa is also expected to get their big play receiver Tevaun Smith back. Smith flashed some big play ability earlier this year and is basically minimum price.

Although I like Beathard as a GPP punt, the Iowa offense revolves around their running game. Jordan Canzeri has already been ruled out and Akrum Wadley is listed atop the depth chart this week. Wadley went bonkers in relief of Canzeri in Iowa’s last game as he ran for 200 yards and four TDs. LeShun Daniels is expected back this week, which is a little concerning, but not enough to chase me off of Wadley. He should be in line for solid volume against a soft Maryland run defense and makes for rock solid mid-range RB option.

Elite Options – Akrum Wadley

Secondary Options – C. J. Beathard, Tevaun Smith (GPP punt)

Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators – O/U 46

Georgia

The Georgia offense really struggled in their first game without their star RB Nick Chubb, as they were held without a touchdown against Missouri. A matchup with a tough Florida defense will only likely add to their struggles and this game is expected to be fairly low scoring. I’m not a fan of the Georgia QB situation so I’m off the Georgia passing game entirely.

Georgia did have arguably the most talented backup RB in the country in Sony Michel so he is more than capable of stepping into Chubb’s shoes and putting up big numbers. The problem is that he is not cheap and I don’t love the prospects of Georgia moving the ball against Florida. I’d expect him to get 25+ touches so the volume will be there, but I like other RBs at his price point better and he’d be a GPP only play given the tough matchup.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Sony Michel

Florida

This is a game I always look forward to watching and hitting up the “World’s Largest Cocktail Party” is on my sports bucket list. However, for fantasy purposes this just isn’t a game that I’m excited about. Georgia did struggle against a dual threat QB in Joshua Dobbs, and Treon Harris is a dual threat QB, who did surprise me with a solid performance against LSU. However, I still don’t trust Harris’ arm and this is a solid Georgia defense so he’s not a guy high on my list. He’s priced as a punt QB on DK, but overall I think there are better matchups to target.

Kelvin Taylor has stepped up as the lead RB for the Gators and is getting all of the goal line work. However, he was stuffed by LSU and this Georgia defense is allowing only 3.3 YPC so this is not the spot to roll him out there. Demarcus Robinson is Florida’s leading WR but he only has 371 receiving yards on the season so he’s not a reliable option, especially in a tough matchup.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Treon Harris (DK)

Clemson Tigers at North Carolina State Wolfpack – O/U 51

Clemson

I was a little surprised to see this one with a total of just 51 points, but digging into the game more both teams have been rock solid against the run and the pass. However, I’m personally not sold on the NC State passing defense quite yet as they haven’t faced a quality passing team yet. Deshaun Watson will be by far the best QB they have faced, and is flying under the radar due to a slow start to the season. He’s really picked it up over the past two weeks, and put up a huge outing against Boston College two weeks ago, and was on his way to another huge outing against Miami, but was pulled early due to the extreme blowout. He’s not at the top of my list, but Clemson will need to rely on him in this one, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up as the top fantasy QB on the day.

Clemson has struggled to replace Mike Williams at WR, and Artavis Scott’s production has been up and down. His price is down to $6,100 on FD so I don’t mind him there as I’m not completely sold on the NC State secondary.

Clemson has a rock solid RB in Wayne Gallman, who has quietly run for over 100 yards in four of his five games. He doesn’t possess that 180 yard and three TD upside, but he provides predictable solid production on a week to week basis.

Elite Options – Deshaun Watson

Secondary Options – Wayne Gallman, Artavis Scott, Jordan Leggett

North Carolina State

This Clemson defense has been really good for a second straight year, and NC State has a team total of just 20 points. Their starting RB Matt Dayes has put up some big games this year, but this Clemson run defense has been stout allowing just 2.9 YPC so I’ll pass on him this week. This whole offense is really a fade for me except for one player in Jaylen Samuels on FD. He’s TE eligible but he’s a guy who gets carries out of the backfield and does it all for NC State. They move him around offensively and he has five rushing TDs to go with four receiving TDs on the season.

Elite Options – Jaylen Samuels

Secondary Options – None

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks – O/U 62

Oklahoma

This one should be a slaughter and OU should be able to do whatever they want offensively. The only question is whether they want to attack KU on the ground or through the air. Last week, OU finally got their ground game going as Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon ran wild, while the OU passing game took a hit. This really boils down to what OU wants to offensively as they’ll have success no matter what they try as Kansas is beyond bad. I’m going to have some exposure to both the running game and passing game, but my feel is that OU wants to continue to get their running game back on track. That should mean another big afternoon from Perine, who finally busted out with a monster game last weekend. He broke the rushing record against this Kansas defense last year, and if OU feeds him this week, he’ll put up a big number before the OU starters hit the bench. His backup Joe Mixon also looked very good last week and while I don’t roster backup RBd for cash games, I think he’s a perfectly fine option for a GPP.

I missed on Baker Mayfield last week as the OU ground game did all of the damage, but prior to last week, this was a pass first offense. With Mayfield burning a lot of people and Perine going off, I think a lot of people will jump ship to the Perine side of things. That scenario leaves me wanting some Mayfield exposure in tournaments in case OU comes out with a pass happy attack. He provides some solid rushing upside and has shown he can bust off 40 fantasy point outings. His top target has been Sterling Shepard, but he’s been surprisingly volatile this year. I think there are much better cash game options, but he’s still in play as a tournament handcuff with Mayfield. I’ll pass on OU’s second and third WRs,Dede Westbrook and Durron Neal, as they haven’t flashed much upside. On FD, Mark Andrews makes for a solid TE target as he has five TDs on the season.

Elite Options – Baker Mayfield (GPP), Samaje Perine

Secondary Options – Sterling Shepard, Mark Andrews, Joe Mixon

Kansas

Kansas is a disaster both offensively and defensively, and with a team total hovering around 10 points, I’d stay far far away from any Jayhawk.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

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