CFB Grind Down: Week 9 Early Slate - Page 4

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-31 04:06:21

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders – O/U 79

Oklahoma State

This game carries the highest total on the slate and for the second week in a row, Oklahoma State draws a great matchup. Unfortunately, they’re one of the most frustrating teams in the country from a fantasy perspective. Their backup QB, JW Walsh comes in whenever they get near the goal line and he has more total TDs than Mason Rudolph and more rushing TDs than any of the Oklahoma State RBs. It’s amazing but despite OSU’s 41 point team total there is no one we can hang our hat on. You could take a shot with Rudolph in a tournament and hope that he hits some big passing TDs but the situation is not conducive to a cash game play.

Rudolph has really spread the ball around at WR so there’s not one WR to focus in on. David Glidden leads them in receptions and yardage so he’s probably the safest play on their team. He’s not a big TD guy though, which limits his upside. James Washington has put together random big games so he could be worth a GPP dart throw, while their leading WR from last year Brandon Shephard has completely disappeared.

As we saw last weekend, Texas Tech is one of the worst run defenses in the nation as they’re allowing 5.9 YPC and 276 rushing YPG. Like the rest of their offense, the OSU RB situation is also murky. If I was rolling the dice in a GPP, it’d be Chris Carson but his carries have been on the decline and JW Walsh looks to call his own number when he comes in the game. He’s a guy that you could take as shot in a large field GPP, but I wouldn’t touch him in a cash game or high dollar tournament.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mason Rudolph (GPP), David Glidden/James Washington, Chris Carson

Texas Tech

On paper, Oklahoma State looks like a quality defense as they are 22nd in passing yards allowed per game and 36th in rushing yards allowed per game. However, Vegas isn’t buying it as Tech has a high team total of 38 points. This will be OSU’s first taste of a high powered Big 12 offense so Vegas is telling us those defensive numbers are inflated. Given Tech’s team total, Patrick Mahomes looks like a great option and is very affordable at just $8,100 on DK. He’s struggled in his last two games, but is still averaging 35 DK PPG, and brings some dual threat ability to Tech’s high octane passing attack.

Outside of Jakeem Grant, the Texas Tech WR are very unpredictable and seem to alternate big weeks. Grant has at least five catches in every game this year and is a nice option on PPR sites like DK. I’m mostly sticking to just Grant as I’ve had little success playing the guessing game with the secondary Tech WRs, but if I had to choose it would be Reginald Davis, who has scored in three straight games

Elite Options – Patrick Mahomes, Jakeem Grant

Secondary Options – DeAndre Washington, Reginald Davis

Boise State Broncos at UNLV Rebels – O/U 55

Boise State

This is a DK only game and the Boise State offense should roll against a weak UNLV defense. Jeremy McNichols was my favorite RB on this slate even before news broke about Dalvin Cook being out. UNLV is allowing 5.3 YPC on the season and McNichols is coming off of a game where had 40 touches. He contributes in the passing game, which is a big bonus on DK, and he should shred this UNLV run defense.

Boise’s QB Brett Rypien has at least 20 DK points in four of his last five games and makes for a solid mid-range QB play on DK. The only worry would be if Boise State goes run heavy once they get way ahead. I’d take the over here and think Boise State hits 40 points so I could see him with two to three passing TDs in this matchup. His favorite target has been Thomas Sperbeck, who has at least five receptions in each of his last six games. With Sperbeck on fire, Shane Williams-Rhodes has seen his production decline so he’s not high on my list.

Elite Options – Jeremy McNichols, Thomas Sperbeck

Secondary Options – Brett Rypien

UNLV

UNLV is expected to get their starting QB Blake Decker back from injury this week, and while he’s not that great, he is a major upgrade to what they’ve been putting out there. I’m not looking Decker’s way, but his return does boost the prospects of Devonte Boyd, who has really struggled due to the poor QB play. Boyd is a really talented kid, but the UNLV QBs haven’t been able to get him the ball. He’s really cheap and UNLV should be throwing a ton in the 2nd half so despite the tough matchup, he makes for a solid play at just $4,800.

Boise State has played elite run defense so far this year and UNLV hast not been a good running team so I’ll avoid the UNLV run game.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options Devonte Boyd

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Southern Methodist Mustangs – O/U 76

Tulsa

This is a DK only game but be sure to not overlook it as it checks in with a total of 76.5 points, with Tulsa’s team total hovering around 40 points. The primary concern here is the multitude of injuries that Tulsa is dealing with and whether guys like Zack Langer, D’Angelo Brewer and Joshua Atkinson are good to go. SMU is allowing 242 rushing YPG and 5.7 YPC so if Langer is good to go then he makes for an elite option. If for some reason, Langer sits but Brewer plays then Brewer becomes a tremendous value play. With both Brewer and Langer out last week, Tulsa turned to Ramadi Warren, but he too left with an injury, which left James Flanders. In short this is a situation that we’ll have to monitor up until kick off, but Langer’s price is very appealing on DK if he goes.

With all of the injuries at RB, Dane Evans stepped up with a big game against Memphis, and depending on how the RB injuries shake out this week, Tulsa could lean heavily on the passing game. SMU is an all around awful defense as they are 97th in passing yards allowed per game, and cough up a lot of big plays. With the loss of Keevan Lucas, Keyarris Garrett and Joshua Atkinson have seen their roles increased. Garrett had a monster game against Memphis and is a top 3 option on DK at WR. Atkinson has been great in his own right as he has at least 99 receiving yards in every game this year. However, he left the Memphis game early so be sure to check that he is good to go before rostering him. As long as he’s cleared, he’s an elite option as well.

UPDATE – it appears that Atkinson is dealing with an achilles injury and we may not hear his status so have a pivot in mind if you’re going that route. Garrett is the safest option on this Tulsa team

Elite Options – Keyarris Garrett, Dane Evans, Zack Langer (if he plays), Joshua Atkinson (check health)

Secondary Options – D’Angelo Brewer (if he plays- elite option if Langer sits), Justin Hobbs

SMU

SMU has been terrible defensively this year but they’ve been a solid offense at times this season. Matt Davis is coming off his worst game of the year and was actually pulled in the second half. However, he’s expected to draw another start and has shown huge upside at times this year. Tulsa has struggled with mobile quarterbacks and Davis has at least 13 rushing attempts in every game this year and has topped 90 rushing yards three times. On the season, Tulsa is allowing 249 rushing YPG and 5.2 YPC, and I think Davis has a big game on the ground in this one. His top target at WR is Courtland Sutton and he’s too cheap on DK at just $4,900. He’s scored a TD in every game but one this season and Tulsa has also struggled against the pass as they are 122nd in passing yards allowed per game. He’s an elite option due to his cheap price point.

Davis gets a lot of work in the running game so SMU’s running backs haven’t been terribly productive. Xavier Jones gets the most work but typically only gets 12 to 14 carries a game. I’d prefer the volume of Tra Carson or Brandon Wilds but he does provide cheap exposure to one of the higher scoring games on the day.

Elite Options – Matt Davis, Courtland Sutton

Secondary Options – Xavier Jones

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