CFB Grind Down: Week 9 - Late Slate (Page 2)

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-10-30 19:02:52

Vanderbilt Commodores at Houston Cougars – O/U 50

Vanderbilt

Elite Plays

None – Vanderbilt checks in here with an over/under of around 18, definitely one of the smallest over/unders of the night. This team has essentially been void of all fantasy talent this year even though Ralph Webb continues to rack up nearly 30 carries per game. Webb is somewhat expensive on both sites while facing one of the nation’s top rush defenses in Houston who is only allowing 98 yards per game on the ground, and with the emergence of Darrius Sims who is taking some of the carries from Webb, the Vandy run game is an avoid. The pass game has a better matchup as Houston allows almost 275 yards per game through the air, but we have a QB controversy here and neither Shurmur nor McCrary is very good, so they are avoids as well. The only guys I would potentially consider are below, but even then I’m wary of using any Vandy guys here.

Secondary Plays

Trent Sherfield ($4,700 FD, $4,800 DK) – Sherfield checks in as the #1 receiver for the Commodores and is almost minimum price on FanDuel. Despite the low total, this is actually one of the higher potential totals in the last few weeks for Vandy and if they can get the pass game up and running Sherfield may take off and finally have a good game. This is very risky and I doubt I would take it on DraftKings as his price is expensive there, but he is the one guy I am looking at from Vandy.

Houston

Elite Plays

Greg Ward Jr ($10,000 FD, $8,200 DK) – Ward came crashing back to earth last week against UCF, but it was mainly because Kenneth Farrow took off and had his most productive day this year. Ward gets a chance to redeem himself in a game where Houston actually has one of the lowest over/unders this year facing Vandy’s top 20 defense. I am not sure I would be all that excited to pay 10,000 on FanDuel as I would take Paxton Lynch over him in a heartbeat however the price on DraftKings at 8,200 is fairly insane to me. Ward is one of the best rushing QBs in the nation and is trusted to get it in the end zone in short and long yardage situations. HE does not throw all that often, but 200 yards passing and 100 yards on the ground with 4 scores is definitely possible here even against Vandy which would crush his value at $8,200. Expect him to be highly owned at this price on DK.

Secondary Plays

Demarcus Ayers ($7,200 FD, $6,500 DK) – I am really not big on the rest of this Houston offense here. This is a step up in competition from what they have been facing in the last few weeks and Farrow could be dealing with a concussion but is expected to go. If Farrow does not go, Ryan Jackson immediately becomes an elite play at his price but like I noted, it looks like Farrow should be good to go in this one. I am off Farrow due to the price hike and the tough Vandy defense that is only allowing 110 yards per game on the ground and with Farrow being a little bit TD dependant, I think there are better options. If you want to stack Ayers with Ward, I definitely understand and may do that in some of my GPPs especially on DraftKings, but I am not loving him this week. I have thought he is a bit overpriced for a low volume passing game and a guy who has not crossed 100 yards in 5 weeks and his catches have been slowly declining each week. That being said, this could be a great time to get him more involved so I do not think we can ignore him.

Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats – O/U 57

Tennessee

Elite Plays

Jalen Hurd ($6,500 FD, $6,400 DK) – Hurd is dollar for dollar my favorite RB on this slate and I am going to have a ton of exposure to him. Tennessee has found it difficult to gain yards in the last few games against Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and Florida, all teams with very, very good run defenses. What has not changed though is Hurd getting 20 carries and essentially reaching 90 yards in each game with a good chance of a score. Enter Kentucky which has the worst rush defense that Tennessee has played since the Bowling Green game where Hurd rushed 23 times for 123 yards and three TDs. Hurd is an elite play for me here as his price has been held down by some solid defenses and I am expecting 150 yards and two TDs.

Secondary Plays

Joshua Dobbs ($8,200 FD, $8,300 DK) – With Ward at $8,200 on DK, it would be hard to justify Dobbs but Dobbs is also just 8,200 on FD and much cheaper than Ward there. Dobbs is an all or nothing type of guy with hardly any pass game and reliant on the run. The great thing is that Kentucky is going to be the easiest team that Tennessee has had to run on and Dobbs should have some room especially if Hurd is opening up lanes himself. Hurd is the safest way to go for me, but I also like Dobbs and am avoiding the receivers as they just spread the ball around way too much, although a guy like Alvin Kamara has appeal on DraftKings for his ability to catch passes out of the backfield and his sub $4,000 price.

Kentucky

Elite Plays

Dorian Baker ($4,900 FD, $4,500 DK) – I am coming around on the Kentucky WRs as it appears that Towles is going to continue throwing the ball 45 times per game. Any time there is that much volume, unless the QB is completely incompetent, a possession receiver is going to end up with some decent totals. The lack of big play ability for Baker worries me, but he should still be able to rack up seven catches for 70 yards in this game against an average Tennessee pass defense. I think Baker makes a great cash game play considering the price and the fact that we will most likely be seeing Kentucky throw due to game flow and that he is going to receive 10-15 targets. Do not expect a world beater, but he is there for value. In addition, Johnson’s shoulder should cause a little bit more emphasis on Baker although Johnson still should play.

Secondary Plays

Stanley Boom Williams ($6,300 FD, $5,900 DK) – I would choose Hurd over Williams every single time around this price point but I think that Williams makes an interesting gamble play here. The volume is not there but Kentucky has faced some solid rush defenses and Williams does have big play ability. Tennessee’s defense is just average and they have given up monster rushing efforts to everyone in the last six weeks including Western Carolina. There is merit here as I think Williams goes for 120 and a TD with a little upside for more, but it appears that Kentucky is committed to passing the ball taking away from Boom’s value.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Temple Owls – O/U 50

Notre Dame

Elite Plays

Will Fuller ($7,400 FD, $6,700 DK) – Fuller has not been a volume receiver this year but boy, the kid catches touchdowns. THe has only had one game without a TD this year, against undefeated Clemson and I doubt that Temple keeps him off the board here. Temple’s run defense should keep Notre Dame looking to the air a bit and the #1 option for Kizer is a near lock for a long TD pass as he is virtually uncoverable. His price is extremely cheap and I am looking for Fuller to get back to the two-TD games he had earlier in the season here. Notre Dame is more run oriented but Kizer is still passing almost 30 times per game which allows Fuller to have the upside you need at this price. Oh, and Fuller is from Philadelphia, if you believe in that narrative stuff.

Secondary Plays

C.J. Prosise ($9,200 FD, $8,300 DK) – It is not that I do not think that Prosise is a bad play, I just think there are better options for the price around. McCaffrey is clearly better value on this slate against Washington State who is allowing over double the yards on the ground that Temple does and the over/under is much higher. Prosise should be a GPP play here as I would always upgrade to McCaffrey in cash and use Hurd as salary balance instead of Prosise. That being said, Prosise is a stud and a TD machine and could easily make value just on short yardage TDs so he is definitely a GPP guy if you are fading the high ownership on McCaffrey.

Temple

Elite Plays

None – I toyed with making Jahad an elite play here but with Temple’s low over under and playing up in competition I am keeping him as a secondary. There are three other RBs in Hurd, Gaskin and McCaffrey I think are light years ahead in value over Jahad despite the volume he is going to receive and you should try to get those guys in your lineup before putting Thomas in. As for the rest of the team, I am not looking at Robby Anderson here or P.J. Walker against a Notre Dame team which has been super stingy against the run and really should take control of this game.

Secondary Plays

Jahad Thomas ($8,700 FD, $8,100 DK) – Like I noted above, I am not big on Thomas here but the one thing he has going for him is that you have been able to run on the Notre Dame defense. Thomas is a TD machine who rarely gets his looks vultured and should continue putting up numbers, it is just that I think the other options are better for the price. The large salary really eats at who else you can play and with McCaffrey being arguably the top play on the board, it is difficult to fit both Jahad and McCaffrey and probably not a good idea considering that Temple might be forced to throw in the late game.

Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars – O/U 62

Stanford

Elite Plays

Christian McCaffrey ($9,400 FD, $9,400 DK) – I am starting my lineups this week with McCaffrey just like I did with Fournette last week. Ed’s son as been an absolute beast this year and is starting to get the touchdowns that he was vultured from before. McCaffrey went for 100 yards rushing and receiving against Washington who has a much better defense (especially run defense) than Washington State who is allowing over 200(!!!) yards on the ground this year. Fire up McCaffrey in all formats on all sites despite the price and find a way to save elsewhere as fading another potential 50 point day probably will get you a loss.

Secondary Plays

Austin Hooper ($4,100 FD, $4,100 DK) – I probably would not use him on DraftKings with the $4,100 tag for a TE in the WR spot, but on FanDuel when you need a TE, he is the best option on the board. This is the highest projected scoring game outside of Memphis, and Hooper has caught a TD in four straight games. Hogan will look Hooper’s way again and with Washington State most likely selling out to stop the run at the goal line, Hooper should be able to catch another TD. There are no slam dunk TEs on this slate like Bucky Hodges, but finding the guy who gets you 10 points from the position might be imperative.

Washington State

Elite Plays

Luke Falk ($10,000 FD, $8,500 DK) – Falk would need to be against the Michigan or Boston College defenses this year for me to consider him as not an elite play. The Washington State offense is going to throw 50+ and possibly 70 times this week on Stanford if they are able to have enough success and the pure volume is going to get Falk to 500 yards. He is very safe despite the price and the lack of rush attempts and with this game being played in Pullman, I actually think Wazzu will be able to keep this close. This offense is easy to break down – ignore the RBs, load up on Falk and the WRs if you have the cap space.

Gabe Marks ($7,900 FD, $6,700 DK) – Marks is the clear #1 here with Cracraft and Williams a little bit farther behind, but the guy to own if you have cap space is Marks. He came through with a ridiculous four-TD performance and has caught a score in four straight weeks. He has two games with over 10 receptions and is averaging just over eight per game on the year. Falk looks Marks’ way early and often and with the lack of stud, reliable WRs on the slate, Marks fits that role perfectly and will be highly owned here.

Secondary Plays

Dom Williams ($6,600 FD, $5,600 DK) – Williams is the #2 outside threat for this Cougars offense and is a fantastic play here as well. A discount from Marks and a pivot if you want to stay off the high owned guy, Williams is a fantastic play in his own right with 100-yard and two-TD upside shown just two weeks ago against Oregon State. The Stanford pass defense is solid, only allowing 204 yards per game but the pure volume of this offense is going to get Williams his catches.

River Cracraft ($5,700 FD, $5,400 DK) – Cracraft is finally the cheapest WSU WR on both sites, and on DK he makes a fantastic play as the slot receiver. Cracraft is going to get a ton of looks and a ton of passes his way, the problem is that he does not score a lot of touchdowns which is imperative on FanDuel. Any of these guys are great plays here even against Stanford as Washington State should put up four touchdowns and a lot of yards of offense, it is just going to be picking the right ones.

Arizona Wildcats at Washington Huskies – O/U 58

Arizona

Elite Plays

Cayleb Jones ($5,400 FD, $5,100 DK) – Cayleb seems to be coming on at the right time just like he did last year and offers up big upside for a small price. The problem here is that there is an OR at the top of the depth chart for the Wildcats and it looks like 2 QBs will most likely be used in this system which would take away from Jones’ value if Randall plays. Jones is the #1 here and in a game with one of the highest over/unders on the board I still think you can use him even without knowing the QB.

Jerrard Randall ($7,000 FD, $6,400 DK) – I do like Randall here if we can get a snap count or some sort of guarantee that he is going to play most of the game. He has been the better offensive player so far for the Wildcats so I would believe he has the upper hand right now. If he gets enough touches, he will rush for over 100 and score four TDs, but the problem is how many touches is he going to get. The price is way too cheap for him in a full game, but of course we are not sure what the “OR” means yet.

Secondary Plays

None – I would think about Jared Baker or Nick Wilson here but this appears to be a nagging injury to Nick Wilson and I am certain that Baker will still get carries even if Wilson plays. Baker was not particularly effective last game, he just ran for a good number of TDs and his price skyrocketed, especially on FD. With the DK Flex I think Baker would be a great play if we can confirm Wilson is out, but who are you going to swap to with an 11 pm start? You could say Gaskin, but I would be using Gaskin ahead of Baker anyways in that situation.

Washington

Elite Plays

Myles Gaskin ($6,600 FD, $6,200 DK) – There are really three serious RB options on this slate for me, and that is Gaskin, Hurd and McCaffrey. They are the three best in my eyes and while Booker is up there as well, the upside and the price point for these three is huge. Gaskin has taken over the starting RB job for the Huskies and with KJ Carta-Samuels at the helm is going to continue to get a ton of carries. If Browning plays, which it seems optimistic that he will, Gaskin will receive a few less carries but is still going to be the workhorse here and continue to go over 100 yards rushing. I love the price here and I am not sure you can say no to this electric playmaker.

Secondary Plays

None – Even with Browning potentially returning and the Arizona pass defense being one of the worst in the nation, I still am only on Gaskin here. Washington just does not have the playmakers through the air and the consistency to use any of these guys at this point especially if Carta-Samuels has to start at QB again. If Browning is tabbed 100%, I could see a flier on him considering Arizona’s bottom of the barrell pass defense, but I would rather just roll out Gaskin.

Jump to Page 1 2 3