CFB Grind Down: Week 9 - Late Slate (Page 3)
Air Force Falcons at Hawaii Warriors – O/U 54
| Air Force Falcons | Hawaii Warriors | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.25 | 25.5 | 72.57 | 64.25 | 39.75 | -25.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 101.43 | 333.00 | Offense | 196.38 | 97.13 |
| Opp Def | 193.38 | 228.75 | Opp Def | 187.29 | 137.00 |
| Opp Def Rank | 20th | 117th | Opp Def Rank | 29th | 42nd |
Air Force
Elite Plays
None – As we have seen with many triple option offenses, the upside could be there but picking the guy who goes off is a lottery. The defense takes away the player in the option they decide before the game, and another guy just steps up and rushes the ball well. Against Wyoming, it was Shayne Davern who went nuts, Colorado State in a loss no one did much and against Fresno in a blowout Bryan Driskell got a good number of carries and Jacobi Owens did as well, finally breaking a big game. The problem here is, we cannot really predict who is going to get the lion’s share of the carries, and even if we did, there is a chance it is so spread out that hardly anyone would make a viable play.
Secondary Plays
Karson Roberts ($6,000) – Roberts had a great game, scoring four touchdowns in the last game, and with the lack of value at QB, he could be in play here. I would like if he was a bit cheaper, but he is the most reliable rusher for the Falcons as he has at least ten attempts in every game this year. Hawaii’s 230 yards allowed per game on the ground is great news for this offense, and Roberts would be the guy I chose if I had to choose anyone.
Hawaii
Elite Plays
None – I am not using Max Wittek against an Air Force team which has one of the best pass defenses in the nation. Pedroza being out does not help the cause, either, as the passes will be distributed between Kemp, Stubblefield and Collie. All three have had big games this year, all in different games. They are all cheap, which makes them intriguing options, but Air Force has really stopped the pass well and despite the opportunities, I am going to be mostly off of this pass game.
Secondary Plays
Paul Harris ($4,300) – Harris is an interesting play here. He is dirt cheap and should garner 20 carries in this game against Air Force, who have been somewhat weak against the run this season. Overall, the Air Force defense is stout, but you can attack them on the ground, and I doubt that Harris is going to be highly owned on this slate. If you need some value, you could certainly do worse than a guy who will get the volume and has already had a productive day two weeks ago.