CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday/Friday
I decided to adjust the article a tad this week to also include the cash game plays I’m pivoting off of in addition to the tournament plays that I like. So, now this article should get you geared up to create some well-constructed cash game AND tournament lineups.
By now, I’m sure you know the strategy involved in winning a cash game versus winning a tournament. In a tournament, a few of the players you roster not only have to have big fantasy days, but they also need to have a lower ownership percentage to set you apart from the crowd. In a cash game, you are trying to choose players that assure you some points or in other words are more predictable with a narrower range of outcomes.
Cash: QB Matt Johns, Virginia
Pivot: QB Thomas Stuart, Boise State
Matt Johns makes for a nice cash game play as he’s been surprisingly putting up consistent passing numbers, while improving each week. Against UCLA and Notre Dame, Johns attempted 38 and 35 passes respectively. He should have to throw against a Boise team that can keep pace and put points on the board. The Boise defense hasn’t looked particularly stout, giving up over 300 yards to BYU in Week 2. So the matchup isn’t too concerning, especially since Boise is making a cross-country trip. Johns has an electric pass catching back in Taquan Mizzell who elevates his fantasy floor by turning check downs into chunk plays. He is also developing chemistry with receiver Canaan Severin, who exploded in the Notre Dame game for 11 receptions and 153 yards. Virginia will rely on Johns to keep them in the ballgame since their rushing attack has been very much lifeless to this point in the season.
A great pivot in tournaments is Boise State’s Thomas Stuart. Their starting quarterback Ryan Finley broke his ankle, sidelining him for about two months. The word out of Boise is that Stuart and third-string QB Brett Rypien may be involved in a two-QB system. Some may be scared away by this news which should drive ownership down for Stuart. Last week in relief of Finley, Stuart made some very nice throws and showed off his dual-threat ability logging 46 yards rushing. Rypien came in and went 8-9, including a 46-yard bomb to Thomas Sperbeck, for a total of 120 yards. The coaching staff immediately got Stuart up when Finley went down, so I think that points to him taking the first snaps this week. It’s definitely a risky proposition when you have two quarterbacks rotating, but that’s how you win a tournament. Stuart is more appealing this week to me as he presents a high ceiling with his rushing ability. In the long run, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rypien’s big arm wins out, but for this week I’ll take a shot with Stuart in tournaments.
Cash: RB Jeremy McNichols, Boise State
Pivot: RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford and Taquan Mizzell, Virginia
McNichols has been stellar through the first three weeks of the season. He’s averaging over 20 touches a game and has been the go-to offensive weapon for the Broncos. Boise goes on the road this week to face a decently talented Cavalier defense that has run into some very tough opposition early in the season. McNichols should be the number one owned running back in leagues during the midweek just based on how often Boise relies on him and how consistent he is with his touches and production. I think he’s a solid cash play, especially with Boise having to turn to a two-quarterback system after the injury to starter Ryan Finley. McNichols may be leaned on even more on the road with a second-string QB at the helm.
However, there are two plays I like pivoting to in tournaments. Christian McCaffrey’s touches have gone from 17 in Week 1 all the way up to 29 in Week 3. It’s clear that Stanford has faith in McCaffrey’s ability at tailback. He’s very good at making defenders miss, which creates extra YAC. Stanford’s starting QB could also miss this week with an ankle, so McCaffrey and Remound Wright should see an increased workload against an Oregon State team that has been beaten on the ground this year. De’Veon Smith of Michigan had a field day against the Beavers in Week 2. Look for Stanford to feed McCaffrey this week. One could also make a case to pivoting to Taquan Mizzell, an electric pass-catching back that Matt Johns loves to target. Mizzell had great games against William & Mary and UCLA, but was shut down by Notre Dame. The Irish linebackers didn’t allow Mizzell to get many yards on designed screens or check downs, which limited his fantasy production in Week 2. This week I think he’ll be less owned than the previous two backs simply because he’s not as consistent and if you’re going to choose one or two, Mizzell may be the lone man out. He has the ability to turn a screen pass into an 70-yard touchdown on any given down, so he’ll definitely be in my GPP lineups
Cash: RB Tion Green, Cincinnati
Pivot: RB Remound Wright, Stanford
Green’s been steady through three weeks of the season, averaging 18 touches per game and parlaying those touches into 84 yards and a touchdown per week. Green isn’t necessarily a great pass-catcher, but he does see check downs and screens a few times per game which is an added bonus. In a projected high-scoring game, it’s a safe bet that Green extends his touchdown streak to four games. He was moved to first on the Bearcats’ depth chart before their Week 3 game with Miami(OH) and it looks like he’ll stay there for this game with Memphis. If Green has impressed the Cincy coaches enough to be vaulted to the top of the depth chart, I think he makes a great cash game play for this midweek slate.
Remound Wright is the second Cardinal running back I’m recommending for tournaments this week and that’s because Stanford is projected to handle Oregon State by more than two scores. If that’s the case Wright and McCaffrey should both get enough work to meet value, especially with starting quarterback Kevin Hogan hobbled with an ankle injury. Wright didn’t get things going until this past week against the Trojans where he scored three touchdowns on the ground in Stanford’s win. Wright doesn’t scream cash play, because he’s a short yardage back that relies on red zone carries resulting in touchdowns to meet value. With Stanford playing well right now, they should be able to get out to a lead against the Beavers and coast with the run game in the second half. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wright nets his second multi-touchdown game of the season.
Cash: WR Shaq Washington, Cincinnati
Pivot: WR Sam Craft, Memphis
Shaq Washington checks a lot of the boxes for a cash game play that I like in wide receivers. The matchup with Memphis has the highest total of the slate and the Bearcats are underdogs, so they should need to throw the ball down the stretch. Washington is a possession receiver that gets a bunch of targets and receptions in the short-to-intermediate passing game. I can see Washington being peppered with quick outs, slants, and hitches as Cincinnati franticly tries to keep pace with Paxton Lynch and Memphis. There is uncertainty whether starting quarterback Gunner Kiel or backup Hayden Moore will get the nod, but I’m not worried about who is under center. In fact, Moore starting the game may be beneficial to Shaq as inexperienced throwers tend to rely on veteran possession receivers.
In tournaments, a pivot to Sam Craft provides the boom (and hopefully not bust) we are looking for in our lineup. Craft often doubles as a ball carrier, so he has ample opportunities to meet value in a shootout with Cincinnati. Last week in a high-scoring game with Bowling Green, his versatility was on display as he punched in a goal-line carry for a touchdown and also caught a 60-yard touchdown pass from Lynch. His first two games were nothing special, though he did get a similar amount of touches. This week’s game against the Bearcats bears more similarities to last week’s shootout with Bowling Green than the first two weeks of the season. Craft just needs to get loose once or twice and he could be the player that pushes you to the top of a GPP.