CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday/Friday - Week 12
So we have a four game slate here for this Thursday/Friday midweek action. There isn’t a high profile game on the schedule, but there will be enough fireworks between these eight teams that it’s a worthwhile slate to play. As always, cash game plays are higher floor, more consistent players that you should build your double ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads around. Whereas GPP/tournament plays are riskier boom or bust options that have a tendency to either have huge games or disappear entirely. Due to the tight pricing on DraftKings, you may need roster a GPP play on your cash game teams due to the fact there just aren’t “consistent” options at cheap prices. FanDuel is somewhat looser, which results in more palatable rosters.
Cash Games
Quarterback
Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati
I’ve followed Kiel since he was heavily recruited out of high school. I often wonder how he would have performed at either of his first two choices, LSU or Notre Dame. Nonetheless, Kiel has the skill set to be an excellent quarterback, but he definitely forces the ball way too often. That being said, turnovers aren’t that detrimental in DFS. The volume at which he throws the football is what I love about Kiel. The Bearcats actually got away from throwing the ball a ton during this season, but they are reverting to their old ways as Kiel has thrown over 90 times in his last two games. He’s just two weeks removed from a 500 yard passing game against Houston. In addition, Kiel has been rock solid in his last four outings, throwing for 1,555 yards and 13 touchdowns. Kiel has finally put the injuries behind him and got into a groove with his receivers. The matchup with South Florida is actually beneficial to Kiel. While their defense is pretty solid, they are more susceptible to the getting beat through the air. With Cincinnati projected for just under five touchdowns, I’m comfortable rostering Kiel here since he has a great chance to account for the majority of those scores.
Quinton Flowers, South Florida
Flowers dual-threat ability makes him a very enticing option in this high-scoring matchup with Cincinnati on this midweek slate. I have a feeling this game is going to have a lot of points scored, more than is projected by Vegas even. Flowers raises his floor with his ability to run the ball and add 8-12 points to his bottom line with his legs. If you take a look at Cincinnati’s ability to defend running quarterbacks, or really any quarterbacks from escaping the pocket, it’s not good. They’ve allowed Greg Ward, Bryant Sherriffs, and Paxton Lynch to all be the leading rushers on their team. I can see Flowers using his arm and legs to keep pace with Cincy, resulting in a big fantasy day. I don’t have an issue using Flowers and Mack since you basically lock up every USF touchdown.
Running Back
Jeremy McNichols, Boise State
McNichols has scored a touchdown in every game he’s played in this season. And while I mentioned previously that I’m worried about the pace of play for this game with Air Force, McNichols and Sperbeck have such a high usage rate that they should be fine even with less possessions. McNichols is never a victim of game flow because he’s killing the clock if Boise is ahead and catching check downs if they are behind. He’s basically heavily involved unless it’s the 4th quarter of a blowout. This game only has a 12 point spread, so I’d speculate that Boise isn’t going to be able to rest its starters at any point. McNichols has really picked up the pace as the season has gone on. After not reaching 100 yards rushing in his first four appearances, he’s eclipsed that total in his last five straight. Adding to his bottom line is the fact he’s averaging almost six receptions and 50 yards receiving per game as well. McNichols is about as safe as they come for this Friday night’s tilt with Air Force.
Marlon Mack, South Florida
I had a difficult time deciding if I wanted to slot Marlon Mack in here or Jeremy McNichols. I ultimately decided I’d rather Mack in cash. Not only does he give you some savings, he has a faster-paced, juicier matchup than McNichols. Mack has racked up 100 yards in five of his last six games and has been a model of consistency for the Bulls. Facing off against a Cincinnati run defense that ranks 88th in the nation, who just allowed Tulsa’s Ramadi Warren and DeAngleo Brewer to rush for 200+ yards and three touchdowns. Mack’s touchdowns aren’t very consistent as he only has 6 touchdowns and they’ve come in spurts, but in a game that has a big projection, there should be enough scoring for Mack to get involved on top of what should be another 100-yard performance.
Wide Receiver
Thomas Sperbeck, Boise State
“Sperbs” as I affectionately call him anchored my cash lineups last week with his 20 reception, 200+ yard one-game performance. He’ll be in my cash lineups again this week. Even since developing a rapport with Rypien, Sperbeck has been on an absolute tear. It looks to me that when Rypien reads soft coverage, it automatically becomes a quick hitter to Sperbeck. In their last game against New Mexico, every time Sperbeck’s corner was playing off, Rypien would just snap the ball and sling it to him. I wouldn’t count on anywhere near 20 receptions again, but even if he racks up half of that he’ll meet value most likely. There’s always a chance McNichols vultures the scores, but the great thing about Sperbeck is he doesn’t need touchdowns for value. He gets enough targets that receptions and yards are all you need from him. I really like when players aren’t dependent on touchdowns, they are merely icing on the cake.
Shaq Washington, Cincinnati
Washington consistently hauls in six or more passes per game. Contrary to conventional thinking, Washington isn’t just an underneath, short route runner. While he does mostly work the short-to-intermediate routes, he also receives targets of deep depths down field. While it’s excellent that we are pretty much guaranteed a certain number of receptions for Washington, he also has a very capped ceiling. He doesn’t often have monster games with multiple touchdowns where he smashes value. So you have to know what you’re getting with Shaq, don’t expect 10 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns. However, you’re almost assured he won’t get you a bagel. Kiel looks Washington’s way often and this week against South Florida should be no different. He’s pretty much the only receiver that has a guaranteed number of looks, as every other Cincy receiver has a wide range of outcomes, so I wouldn’t suggest dropping down to a McKay or Chisum.
Additional Cash Game Wide Receivers: CJ Best, Texas State – Marcus Green, ULM – Isaiah Jones, East Carolina
Tight End
Bryce Williams, East Carolina
Bryce Williams is basically a wide receiver for the Pirates. He rarely stays in to block, which means he’s running all the pass routes. Williams is coming of a game in which he was the leading receiver against South Florida. Williams has hauled in at least five receptions in six of ten games. The matchup is right and he’s not even the most expensive option on FanDuel, so honestly I think he’s the best option if you are paying up for a tight end on FanDuel. He has had as many as nine catches in a game this year, so along with his floor, he also has a pretty high ceiling.
Tournament
Quarterback
Brett Rypien, Boise State
Boise is really cutting Rypien loose since taking over the starting job. I love that this game is on the blue turf, too. Rypien’s splits, and Boise in general, are better at home. Last week he threw the ball over 70 times in a loss to New Mexico. He’s also thrown for almost 1,000 yards in his last two games. I do have some reservation about the opponent. Air Force’s defense hasn’t given up much yardage all season. They rank in the top 25 in the nation in both run defense and pass defense. That ranking could be a product of their pace of play and tendency for long drives, but either way that circumstance will hurt Rypien’s production. There just aren’t sure things at quarterback this week. The way that Rypien and Sperbeck have gelled, he should be able to throw on the Air Force defense, you just have to hope for the right flow to the game. The Broncos are projected for about five touchdowns, which makes me feel a little more comfortable rostering him in cash, but with options like Kiel and Flowers I’d reserve Rypien for tournaments.
Additional GPP Quarterback: James Summers, East Carolina
Running Back
Robert Lowe, Texas State
Lowe gets the vast majority of the carries for Texas State, especially when they are in control of a game. He’s also a polished receiver out of the backfield, so if they are trailing he can accumulate fantasy points through the air as well. This week he gets the 116th-ranked run defense in UL-Monroe. They have allowed 221 rushing yards per game, 4.65 yards per carry, and 22 total touchdowns. Barring some type of injury preventing Lowe from finishing the game, I can’t see how he doesn’t have over 100 yards, a few receptions, and at least one touchdown as a floor. Texas State has the highest team total on the slate and the game has the highest combined over/under. There should be plenty of opportunities for Lowe to take advantage of an awful run defense. The exciting aspect of Lowe’s potential is the amount of touches he’s seen over the last few games games. Texas State has fed him an average of 25 touches over the past month. Lowe blew up in one of those games for 240+ yards and a few scores, but wasn’t spectacular in the other three contests. I think this week with 25 touches, Lowe can have a 100-yard, multiple touchdown game. While I don’t mind him in cash, I think there are better options at his price point. Plus he has shown the inability to produce a ton of fantasy points even with 20+ touches.
Jacobi Owens, Air Force
The option is always a difficult offense to get a read on unless you’re talking about Keenan Reynolds and the Midshipmen. Basically, the offense is a read and react system. Unlike Boise State, who just feeds McNichols the ball whenever they please. Option teams have to take what is given to them. Defenses attack them differently every week, which often leads to a different player receiving the volume each week. Jacobi Owens is a nice player and when his number gets called, he usually produces. Despite DJ Johnson technically being the number one option in the backfield, Owens has had either a 100-yard game, a two touchdown game, or both in three of his last four appearances. I can’t say for sure how Boise is going to defend the option this week, which is why Owens has landed here in GPP plays. If he’s the back that gets going, the potential for another 100-yard performance is there.
Additional GPP Running Back: Mike Boone, Cincinnati
Wide Receiver
Tre’Quan Smith, Central Florida
Smith has emerged as Justin Holman’s most trusted option. He’s hauled in 18 receptions for 279 yards over his last three games. The Knights will face off against East Carolina, who have struggled to defend the pass down the stretch after starting the year fairly well. Both Rodney Adams and Robbie Anderson had field days against East Carolina over the past few weeks, something I think Smith can duplicate. The issue is Smith plays for a winless team with the lowest projected point total for the slate. That’s not the kind of circumstance you feel comfortable attacking in a cash game. I’ll mark him as a tournament play, but think his involvement in the offense is large enough that I wouldn’t fault you for giving him a look in cash games. As I’ve said before, not every player you roster in cash is going to be the model of consistency and have the perfect situation, it’s just not that easy. Especially on DraftKings, with the increased roster size and tighter pricing, you eventually have to end up rostering players you’re not head over heels for.
Rashon Ceaser, UL Monroe
It’s a damn shame Ceaser has missed so much time this season with his injury. I can still remember rostering him last year when he exploded for a big stat line. He looked to be on pace to do the same this year when he started off the year dominating the Georgia Bulldogs for 13/153/2, but unfortunately fell victim to the injury bug. Since being out, Marcus Green has assumed the lead role for UL Monroe’s passing attack, but that doesn’t mean Ceaser has lost the ability to dominate a game. Ceaser has made his return to the ULM lineup, but has underwhelmed in two games, not resuming his lead role in the offense in either game. I keep waiting for him to get back to his old ways of double digit receptions, and I think it will come before the season is over. This spot sets up pretty good for him in the highest totaled game on the slate and being an underdog. I can see the game flow dictating a ton of passes being thrown, maybe even in garbage time. Ceaser shouldn’t be highly owned, he’s not a “box score” play and he’s a relative unknown overall. Rostering him on a GPP could lead to a nice advantage if this is the week he gets back to form.
Additional GPP Wide Receivers: Rodney Adams, South Florida; Chris Moore, Cincinnati
Tight End
Ryan Carden, Texas State
One way I like to be contrarian is to pay up for positions that are usually punted. The tight end position is definitely an all or nothing position. I have a feeling most will be going with Bryce Williams or Sean Price on this slate, so Carden makes for a sneaky play. He’s nothing special, but he is probably the second most used tight end on the slate behind Williams. The total is high enough and the opponent is weak enough that Carden has a real chance to pay off his salary. He is coming off a nice five catch, 60 yard performance. We can probably expect something in that neighborhood which is solid for his price.