CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday/Friday - Week 13
A great midweek slate slate for us on both sites. FanDuel and DraftKings set up their slates a bit differently in that FanDuel is a Thursday/Friday and DraftKings is a Friday only. I’ll highlight cash game plays from both Thursday and Friday, but the article will be definitely geared towards the huge Friday slate.
As always, cash game plays are players you want to make the core of your H2H and double up rosters. Tournament plays are high risk/high reward players that are targeted because they will be low owned, but still have a chance to have a big fantasy day. Only roster a couple of these players per tournament roster. Let’s break down the last full week of college football action.
Cash Game Plays
Quarterback
C.J. Beathard, Iowa
It’s odd that the first cash game player I list is a value play, but Beathard’s price around the industry is just way too good. If you look at Beathard’s splits, he basically does well against inferior competition. Iowa has faced some bad defenses over the last few games and he has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. Beathard raises his floor with this ability to get out of the pocket and pick up some yards with his legs. He has three rushing touchdowns over the last three games, as well. Beathard gets the abysmal Nebraska secondary that has been forcing teams to pass by loading the box. Since Iowa tries to pound the ball down their opponents’ throats, I’d expect the Cornhuskers to sell out to stop the run, leaving opportunities for Beathard. Nebraska is very near the worst pass defense in the league, giving up 305 passing yards a game. All of this and the fact that Iowa will want to make an impression with the playoff committee give me confidence in playing Beathard in cash.
Vernon Adams, Oregon
The Oregon offensive machine is currently humming along over the last month. Since Adams returned from injury, he’s been playing exceptionally well. Adams has thrown 16 touchdowns and run for one more in the last four games. The Ducks have a ton of skill players that all contribute to Adams’ success, but it’s alway difficult to predict who will get the usage in every given week. That’s why I like targeting Adams in cash, he’s basically the only piece of the Ducks’ offense that you can accurately predict usage for. He gets an above average matchup with the 89th ranked Oregon State pass defense that has greatly declined since the beginning of the season. They’ve allow 23 touchdown passes this season and are fresh off a thrashing by Jake Browning and the Huskies. Oregon’s defense is poor enough that I think the Beavers can hang around long enough to keep Oregon scoring well into the second half.
Also consider: Chris Johnson, Baylor
Running Back
Myles Gaskin, Washington
The Huskies continue to feed Gaskins the rock and that shouldn’t stop on Friday. He’s carried the ball an average of 20 times over the last three, so that’s a good projection for him in this rivalry game against Washington State. The aspect of this play that has me excited is how bad Washington State has been against the run this year. The Cougs allow over five yards per carry and almost 200 yards per game on the ground to opponents. Royce Freeman, Demario Richard, and Christian McCaffrey all had success. With 20+ carries, Gaskin should be able to top 100 yards and score at least once as a floor. Those are extremely solid numbers for a guy in his price range on this slate. As with CJ Beathard, I’m not a huge “truther” of Gaskin, nor do I love his game, but when he’s mispriced and I feel he has a great chance to meet value, I’ll gladly slot him in on my cash game roster.
Jeremy McNichols, Boise State
This one is pretty much a no-brainer for me. McNichols has topped 100 yards and scored a touchdown in his last six games. He also has a matchup that you should be licking your chops at. San Jose State has given up gobs of yardage to teams on the ground. Paul Harris, Donnell Pumphrey, and Peyton Barber all gashed them on the ground to name a few. To me, Jeremy McNichols is a better pack than everyone I just listed, especially with the way the Broncos use him. When I see San Jose State giving up an average of 208 yards on the ground and five yards per carry, McNichols is an auto plug in for me in cash lineups. The game flow favors the Broncos rushing attack as Boise State is a touchdown favorite. I love the fact that McNichols will be involved from start to finish as long as the game plays out the way Vegas believes it will.
D’Onta Foreman/Jonathan Gray/Chris Warren III, Texas
I really hope we get some clarity on this situation before game time. The Texas Longhorns face off against one of the most porous run defenses in the nation in Texas Tech. I desperately want to use a Texas running back, but right now it’s up in the air as to who will be available for this game. Foreman has been a horse in spots this season, but Charlie Strong was not optimistic about him playing. Gray is listed as a game-time decision (great). Strong said that freshman Chris Warren III will most likely shoulder the load this week against Tech. If I had to guess right now, I’d say neither Foreman or Gray play and Warren has his way with the Tech front seven, but if Foreman or Gray were to suit up and all reports indicate that they’ll resume usual duties, they’d be the play. As I said, let’s hope Warren is the top running back dressed and we can confidently roster him for his cheap price.
Also Consider: DeAndre Washington, Texas Tech; Kareem Hunt, Toledo
Wide Receiver
Thomas Sperbeck, Boise State
Sperbeck is a target monster for Boise State, taking up a huge percentage of all passes thrown by Rypien. Rypien has made a huge difference for Sperbeck as well. They’ve developed a chemistry with respect to route timing that is remarkable to watch. It seems as though Rypien knows exactly when Sperbeck is going to get into his break and snap his head around because the ball is there just a second or two later. Rypien loves to hit Sperbeck when the defense is playing soft coverage too, he just snaps the ball and slings it his way. It’s evident that Sperbeck is a solid cash game play as he hasn’t had anything less than 20 ppr fantasy points since Week 3. In a game that is projected to remain relatively close throughout and a team total just under five touchdowns, Sperbeck is a good bet to keep pace with his current hot streak.
Nicholas Norris, Western Kentucky
I could write up Corey Coleman, Corey Davis, and the rest of the top guys here, but I think I’ll be using the higher priced running backs in my cash games. So while I wouldn’t fault anyone for using them in cash, I’ll gear this toward my specific roster construction. Western Kentucky gets one of their toughest tests of the season as they host Marshall. Nic Norris is a little shifty slot guy that I am counting on Brandon Doughty to lean on this week. Norris has caught at least five passes, scored a touchdown, or both in the Hilltoppers’ last four games. This game has a vegas implied score of 37-27, which is music to my ears because we’re usually worried about WKU blowing out their opponent and not playing starters for half the game. I’ve always been a fan of Norris’ game and thought he could be such a great part of Western Kentucky’s success through the air. I wrote him up the first week of the season, but he didn’t really establish himself until a few weeks later. This game should be tight and I’m expecting Doughty to target Norris to move the chains. He’s not necessarily a high volume typical cash game play, but he’s super cheap and should meet value fairly easy.
Also Consider: Corey Coleman, Baylor; Corey Davis, WMU; Taywan Taylor, WKU
Tight End
Ryan Yurachek, Marshall
Yurachek has a touchdown in three straight games for the Herd. On Fanduel, he’s kind of expensive, and if Marshall had a cupcake matchup up, I’d definitely avoid him, but they’ll be most likely playing from behind against Western Kentucky. With that being the case, Yurachek should see an uptick in targets. If he can add some receptions and yards to his knack for the end zone, he’ll meet value easily at his price on FanDuel.
Also Consider: Josh Perkins, Washington
Tournament Pivots
Quarterback
Keenan Reynolds, Navy
Reynolds and Navy have perfected the option attack that they run. The problem with rostering players in option systems, as we’ve seen this season, is the defense dictates who gets taken away. In certain games, defenses scheme so that Reynolds is forced to give the dive or pitch the ball. That’s why if you look at his game logs, there is a wide range of carries from game to game. Reynolds has the ability, with the rushing upside, to absolutely shatter value in any week as exemplified by his games against SMU, UConn, and East Carolina. He’s a threat to take the ball to the house every time he keeps it, so I’ll be slotting him into a few tournament rosters and hoping that’s it’s a boom, not a bust week.
Also Consider: Dane Evans, Tulsa; Tommy Armstrong, Nebraska; Nate Peterman, Pitt
Running Back
Zack Langer, Tulsa
Langer’s injuries over the past few weeks have allowed other players to step up for the Golden Hurricanes, but it looks like Langer is working his way back to full strength. He outpaced his fellow teammates in carries against Navy and it looks as though he’ll resume his role as the power back. After watching what Xavier Jones did to Tulane, I’m very confident both DeAngleo Brewer and Langer will have success. This is setting up to be a multi-touchdown game for Langer. He’s turned in several multi-touchdown performances this year, including a couple of three touchdown games. I don’t expect him to return to his 30-carry days from the beginning of the season, but 18-20 carries for Langer against this Tulane defense could result in Langer’s sixth multi-touchdown game of the year.
Also Consider: Devin Chafin, Baylor; Gerard Wicks, Wazzou; Jordan Canzeri, Iowa
Wide Receiver
Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan
Braverman began the season as the go-to safe option for Western Michigan, catching tons of passes every week. He then fell off a cliff for a few weeks and came back to life last week with a big game against Northern Illinois. Everyone is talking up Corey Davis as a great pro prospect, and they should be, but Braverman is just as dangerous in this Western Michigan offense. The matchup is difficult as Toledo has been stout all year. And there are a bunch of players around Braverman’s price range that are either more of a household name or have gaudier statistics over the last month. If you pivot to Braverman, I expect he’ll be very low-owned making him a huge boost for your squad if he does return to September form and catch 10+ passes. In a game Western Michigan should be trailing, Braverman could see more targets than usual.
Also Consider: KD Cannon, Baylor; Matt VandeBerg, Iowa; Keyarris Garrett, Tulsa
Tight End
Hunter Henry, Arkansas
Henry is one of the only tight ends on the slate that is capable of crushing value. When Brandon Allen gets in a groove in the passing game, he keeps feeding that player. We’ve seen it with Drew Morgan and Henry himself throughout the year. The matchup is not ideal against Mizzou, but that should drive his ownership down in tournaments. And you just can’t ignore the numbers Allen is putting up. He has 13 total touchdowns in two games over his last three. It’s not likely that Henry goes bonkers against for 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns, but if you are looking to be contrarian, paying up for tight end on this slate looks like the way to go.
Also Consider: Henry Kreiger Coble/George Kittle, Iowa; Billy Freeman, San Jose St.