CFB Traffic Light Plays: Bowl Week 1
Welcome back to Bowl Week 1’s edition of CFB “Traffic Lights” plays. With it being a shorter slate, I’ll break things down “Grind Down” style, and provide a quick overview of the plays from each game. This is a pretty ugly slate and the games don’t project to be all that high scoring. Bowl season can be tricky…
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Nevada/Louisiana Lafayette (+1, 61)
Passing Defense: Nevada -112th (271 YPG), ULL – 117th (275.3 YPG)
Rushing Defense: Nevada – 79th (4.83 YPC, 179 YPG), ULL – 44th (4.12 YPC, 147 YPG)
Nevada’s pistol offense is a run heavy attack and Louisiana Lafayette’s run numbers look good on paper, as they are 44th in the country in rushing defense. However, they allow over 4.0 YPC and haven’t faced many good rushing attacks. This Nevada pistol attack will be one of the better rushing offenses they have faced all year, so both Don Jackson and Cody Fajardo should have room to run. Louisiana Lafayette did allow big days to the two quality RBs they faced, as Jay Ajayi had 157 yards and three TDs, and Kenneth Dixon had 184 yards and two TDs. Cody Fajardo is the one elite QB in this game set. He is expensive on FD, but in play, as he is head and shoulders above the other QBs in this slate. On DK, he is underpriced and a plug and play at only $8,300. He has over 30 DK points in seven of his last eight games, and has rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games. He also could have more success than usual through the air against ULL’s 117th ranked passing defense.
Don Jackson had 20 carries or more in three of his last four games, and is coming off a 100-yard rushing day. His price is very manageable, because Fajardo steals the majority of the goal line work and he only has seven rushing TDs on the year. Nevada spreads the ball around to three WRs, but Hassan Henderson is out, so Jericho Richardson (53/626/3) and Richy Turner (58/541/4) will get the majority of the looks. They don’t get a ton of volume due to Nevada’s run heavy attack, but due to the lack of attractive WRs, they are in play as cheap WR3. Jarred Gibson has been quiet recently, but does have two games this year where he scored two TDs in each, so he is the TE with the highest upside in this slate.
Nevada’s defense has been poor all year and Vegas expects ULL to score 30 points here. Terrence Broadway has a cheap tag on DK and makes for a solid cheap QB2 there. He is a former 4 star recruit and transfer from UH, who hasn’t fully developed as a passer, but he’s a good runner and typically gets double digit carries. He’s been very solid in three of his last four games with around 20 fantasy points.
ULL has a very explosive RB in Elijah McGuire, who averaged 8.4 YPC last year, and 7.8 YPC this year. The only downside to him is that he shares carries with Alonzo Harris, and Harris is the goal line back when they get inside the five yard line. However, due to his big play ability, he has scored a TD in the past nine games and gets work in the receiving game. Alonzo Harris had three TDs in his last game and they all came from inside the two yard line. He’ll get around 13 to 15 carries and is a potential cheap RB who can find the end zone. ULL lost their top WR, Jamal Robinson, early in the season and hasn’t had anyone step up to fill his shoes. Elijah McGuire actually leads ULL in receptions with 40 and is second in yards with 414. James Butler is ULL’s “leading” WR with 30 receptions for 417 yards and 0 TDs. I’d avoid the ULL receivers, as they are run heavy and when they do pass they spread it around.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Cody Fajardo (Nevada QB), Elijah McGuire (ULL RB), Terrance Broadway (ULL QB – DK), Jarred Gipson (Nevada TE)
Yellow Lights: – Don Jackson (Nevada RB), Terrance Broadway (ULL QB – FD), Alonzo Harris (ULL RB), Jericho Richardson/Richy Turner (Nevada WRs)
Red Lights: – ULL WR
Utah State/UTEP (+10, 46)
Passing Defense: Utah State – 74th (233 YPG), UTEP – 33rd (201.5 YPG)
Rushing Defense: Utah State – 26th (3.28 YPC, 129 YPG), UTEP – 68th (5.06 YPC, 168 YPG),
If there’s a game to fade, this looks to be it. The Vegas total is very low and the QB play of both teams is iffy at best. Kent Myers is Utah State’s 4th QB of the season as they amazingly lost three QBs to season-ending injuries. At this point, Myers, who is a true freshman, is a better runner than passer, as he has yet to pass for more than 200 yards in a game. He does have four rushing TDs over his last two games. He’s not a guy I’m looking to roster since his 8k price is steep on FD and I prefer other QBs in his price range on DK. Utah State doesn’t really give any RB more than 10 carrier per game, so they can be avoided. Utah State does have two really talented WRs in Hunter Sharp and JoJo Natson. Sharp was on his way to a huge season but the injuries to the QBs really derailed his season, as he has only 48 receiving yards in his last three games combined. JoJo Natson does make for an interesting GPP play, as they get him carries on reverses so he’s not wholly reliant on his receiving yards like Sharp. He’s tiny but has a ton of speed and has made the most of those carries — he three rush TDs in his last four games.
The UTEP passing game has been abysmal all year, so I’d avoid Jameil Showers and the UTEP WRs. The only UTEP player in play here is Aaron Jones. He had a great start to the season but then was limited by injury during the latter part of the season. He got a full workload in UTEP’s final game of the season with 29 carries for 147 yards and a TD, and should be fully healthy with the bowl layoff. He’s by far their best player and they look to get him involved in the passing game as well. I like him more as a GPP play because Utah State is a rock solid run defense and teams can stack the box due to UTEP’s lack of passing game.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – None
Yellow Lights: – JoJo Natson (Utah State WR), Aaron Jones (UTEP RB)
Red Lights: – Utah State offense except Natson, UTEP offense except for Aaron Jones.
Utah/CSU (+3, 57.5)
Passing Defense: Utah – 89th (245 YPG), CSU – 65th (227.2 YPG)
Rushing Defense: Utah – 54th (3.89 YPC, 158 YPG), CSU – 87th (4.68 YPC, 187.6 YPG)
Travis Wilson is no longer splitting reps at QB for Utah, as the backup is out for the year. He’s coming off a nice game against a Colorado and he also typically sees around 10 carries per game. He’s in play on both sites, since he is really cheap and has 20 or more FD points in three of his last four games. Colorado State has a potent offense but a lackluster defense, so this is a nice matchup for Wilson. If you’re looking to roster Rashard Higgins, then Wilson is a great option at QB, especially on FD where he is only $6,500.
I’m definitely in the minority, but I actually like Devontae Booker as my #1 RB play over Jarvion Franklin this week, especially on a PPR site like DK. Booker has at least 25 touches in every week since Week 5 and Utah gets a step down in competition in terms of conference, as they face a Mountain West team. Colorado State has struggled to stop the run against Mountain West teams and now must face a potent Pac 12 rushing attack. They haven’t faced a ton of big name RBs, but Jay Ajayi (33 carries for 219 yards and 2 TDs), Wyoming’s Brian Hill (121 rushing yards and two TDs) and BC’s Jon Hilliman (128 yards and two TDs) all had very good days against them. Booker is especially appealing on a PPR site like DK due to his receiving ability, as his reception totals over his last four games are 5, 4, 9 and 8.
With Dres Anderson lost for the year, Kaelin Clay stepped right into his role as the big play WR, and Utah looks for him off of play action. He’s coming off of a huge game against Colorado with 10 receptions for 88 yards and two TDs, and has an above average matchup with a beatable Colorado State secondary. Utah’s other WR Kenneth Scott is a PPR guy, but he does catch around five passes a game and is bare minimum on FD and only 3.8k on DK. At TE, Westlee Tonga is one of the better options at TE in this slate. His numbers have picked up since Wilson took over as full time QB, as he has TDs in three of his last four games, and has at least 60 receiving yards in each of his last two games.
CSU will have an interim head coach in this one after Jim McElwain took the head coaching job at Florida. I’m not too worried about its effect on their offense, as their OC will be the interim coach. I’m more concerned about the step up in competition and the Utah front seven. Utah leads the country in sacks per game and I wonder whether the CSU offensive line will be able to hold up here. Colorado State has a very talented trio in Garrett Grayson, Dee Hart and Rashard Higgins. If the offensive line can hold up then Grayson should hook up with Higgins a ton, as Utah is susceptible to the pass when they don’t get to the QB (as evidenced by their 89th ranked passing defense). The primary issue with Higgins is his price and the lack of value in this slate. Utah is a defense that I haven’t really targeted, even in Pac 12 play, so I’d only look to these CSU guys in GPPs.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Travis Wilson (Utah QB), Devontae Booker (Utah RB), Kaelin Clay (Utah WR), Westlee Tonga (Utah TE), Rashard Higgins (CSU WR)
Yellow Lights: – Kenneth Scott (Utah WR), Dee Hart (CSU RB), Garrett Grayson (CSU QB)
Red Lights: – None
Western Michigan/Air Force (-1.5, 55.5)
Passing Defense: WMU – 69th (229.3 YPG), Air Force – 98th (256 YPG)
Rushing Defense: WMU – 37th (4.22 YPC, 142.7 YPG), Air Force – 35th (3.87 YPC, 140 YPG)
It looks like Kale Pearson will play, but you’ll want to double check his status, as he missed their last game with an ankle injury. It’s hard to break down a triple option offense due to the uncertainty of who will get the carries. Also, Western Michigan hasn’t seen a triple option offense, so we have no look into what they want to take away. Air Force’s top RB, Jacobi Owens, is out for the year and they’ve since divided up the carries, so it’s hard to target any Air Force RB. Pearson and top WR, Jalen Robinette, are the plays from Air Force. I prefer them more as a GPP plays due to Pearson’s injury situation and the unpredictability of the triple option offense. However, with Western Michigan’s lack of experience against a triple option offense, Air Force could gash them here. For a triple option QB, Pearson is actually a solid passer and his top target is Robinette (41/763/4). Pearson is cheap on DK at 6.4 and is in play as a QB2. As long as Pearson plays, then Robinette makes for a solid play, as he is very cheap around the industry. If Pearson doesn’t play, then he’s someone I’d avoid, since Nate Romine is a step down in the passing department from Pearson.
Air Force has had a sneaky good run defense this year, as they are 35th in the country and allow only 3.87 YPC. I thought that might simply be due to facing a weak schedule, but they have held some really good RBs in check. They held Jay Ajayi to 17 carries for 63 yards, Dee Hart to 23 carries for 115 yards and 0 TDs, and Donnell Pumphrey to 27 carries for 131 yards and 1 TD. Jarvion Franklin has been incredible this year and was unstoppable through the first 10 weeks of the season. He hurt his ankle against Eastern Michigan a few games ago and was limited down the stretch. However, he should be fully healthy with the bowl layoff. I’m not recommending a full on fade of Franklin or anything like that, but I do prefer Booker’s matchup and will probably own more Booker than Franklin. I’m definitely in the minority on that position and this could look really bad come Saturday night, but Air Force just hasn’t coughed up any big games to RBs, even a great RB like Jay Ajayi.
However, Air Force’s secondary has been very susceptible. Rashard Higgins lit them up for 12 receptions 193 yards and two TDs, Hunter Sharp had 12 receptions for 164 yards and two TDs, and Devante Davis had six receptions for 114 yards and a TD. This sets up as a great spot for the Western Michigan passing game and they could be under owned, as most will be on Franklin. Zach Terrell has thrown for over 3,000 yards this year, and has a big time receiver in a Corey Davis (70/1232/12), and a solid possession receiver in Daniel Braverman (79/912/6). Davis isn’t cheap but he has scored in six straight games and on paper has a better matchup than Rashard Higgins.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Kale Pearson (Air Force QB – GPP), Jalen Robinette (Air Force WR), Jarvion Franklin (WMU RB), Zach Terrell (WMU QB), Corey Davis (WMU WR)
Yellow Lights: – Daniel Braverman (WMU WR)
Red Lights: – Air Force RBs
South Alabama/Bowling Green (+3, 53.5)
Passing Defense: S. Bama – 31st (200 YPG), Bowling Green – 123rd (292.4 YPC)
Rushing Defense: S. Bama -88th (4.65 YPC, 190.7 YPG), BGSU – 103rd (5.08 YPC, 207.2 YPG)
South Alabama has the premier matchup of this slate against a Bowling Green defense that has been horrific all year. However, the South Alabama offense is really hard to peg down, as their QB, Brandon Bridge, was injured for part of the year, and hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards since October. At RB, they lost their top RB to injury and have been RBBC between Kendall Houston, who has 134 carries for 652 yards and one TD, and Terrance Timmons, who has 65 carries for 382 yards and three TDs. Despite the fact that he gets more carries, Houston is actually the cheaper of the two, as he hasn’t been able to find the end zone, which is interesting because he is the bigger back at 5’10 230 pounds. He could be worth a GPP gamble against Bowling Green’s terrible defense.
The best play from South Alabama is WR Shavarez Smith, as Bowling Green just gets shredded through the air. The South Alabama passing attack is not great, but Smith has consistently been their top WR this year. On the year, he has 50 receptions for 714 yards and eight TDs, which by far leads the team. He is also coming off of a two-TD game. With South Alabama facing Bowling Green’s porous defense, you’ll want some exposure to the South Alabama offense and Smith is the safest option, and he is very cheap. TE Wes Saxton was very good last year, but has disappeared this year. He’d be my third choice at TE behind Tonga and Gipson.
James Knapke has really tailed off after a nice start and Bowling Green has become more ground oriented as a result. He’s not a guy who is on my radar due to his recent poor play. Travis Greene and Fred Coppet are splitting carries, but Greene did out-carry him 18 to 11 last game. Greene has topped 100 yards in two straight games and has scored in each, so he is my preferred play between the two. He was the starter at the beginning of the year and looks to be slowly regaining that status. Roger Lewis (69/956/5) had a great start to the season, but has really struggled lately due to Knapke’s poor play. He’s in play where his price has fallen, as there simply aren’t great WR options in this slate, and maybe the break allows for Knapke and him to get back on the same page. I like Gehrig Dieter as a punt option on DK at only 3.2k, if you need salary relief. He had a lot of buzz surrounding him at the beginning of the year, but has been injured for the majority of the year. He’s been hovering around 13 DK points in each of the past three weeks, which is 4x salary.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Shavarez Smith (S. Bama WR), Travis Greene (BGSU RB)
Yellow Lights: – Kendall Houston/Terrance Timmons (S. Bama RBs), Roger Lewis and Gehrig Dieter (BGSU WR), Fred Coppet (BGSU RB), Wes Saxton (S. Bama TE)
Red Lights: – None
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!