CFB Traffic Light Plays: Championship Week
After a one-week hiatus, the traffic light plays are back and ready to go out with a bang before bowl season kicks off in the next three weeks. I am truly flattered by the positive feedback that this column generated throughout the year, and I sincerely appreciate each and every one of you who take the time out of your busy schedule to read it. I try my best to give my honest opinion about each game and player, and hopefully this column can become a staple here on RotoGrinders for years to come. Thanks again for reading! This week is one of my favorites because there are tons of good games to watch, and although it’s a limited slate of games, it’s just enough to keep lineups diverse across the industry. With that said, let’s take a look at the schedule!
In case you need a reminder, here are the tiers for my picks:
Traffic Light Tiers
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the ìplayabilityî of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
EARLY GAMES
Vegas Odds of note:
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State (-10, 57)
UCF vs. SMU (+10, 59 1/2)
Memphis vs. Connecticut (PK, 43)
Texas vs. Baylor (-16, 71 1/2)
Missouri vs. Auburn (-1 1/2, 58)
There are some games that should have gooey fantasy goodness in this set. Let’s start by knocking out the ones that don’t. The Memphis/Connecticut game would be a fantastic basketball tilt, but the football version sets up to be horrendous. To give UConn credit, they have been playing very well of late and won two straight games under the direction of former third-string-turned-starter QB Casey Cochran. This is impressive given UConn was 0-9 prior to those two games. Cochran is the only player worth a second of consideration in this game, and I would only consider him on multi-QB sites where he is still cheap. Other than that, give this game a total pass. The Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State game should feature some points, but it’s hard to know where they are going to come from. Neither team has a consistent receiving option, and Oklahoma loves to rotate their backs. Brennan Clay took over in the last game, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’s the clear workhorse. Plus, we saw how good Oklahoma State’s defense is in the Baylor game. They are legit. The quarterbacks could be in play here, as Clint Chelf is cheap on a lot of sites and Trevor Knight has been playing well for the Sooners since re-taking the starting job. Outside of that, the safest bet is Oklahoma State RB Desmond Roland, who seized the #1 role for the Cowboys by scoring seven TD’s over a three game span last month. He has slowed down a bit of late, but with Oklahoma State a 10 point favorite in this one, I think he could be in store for a solid day.
UCF should have some fun at the expense of SMU’s completely horrid pass defense. All the Knights passing game options are great plays, especially NFL prospect QB Blake Bortles. Their WR’s are hard to predict, but all make solid options if you can fit them in as they are all playmakers and SMU has no solid cover guys. Breshad Perriman, Rannell Hall, and JJ Worton are the ones who play the most snaps. Hall even tends to get 4-5 carries a game on the fly sweep. The UCF RB situation needs to be avoided. A lot of folks will be on Storm Johnson, but he was benched on Thanksgiving week after losing two fumbles in the first quarter. William Stanback played more snaps over the rest of the game. Avoid them and target the passing weapons. On the SMU side of the ball, QB Garrett Gilbert will be a game time decision. Monitor the news closely, because his WR’s get a massive upgrade if he plays. Neal Burcham was awful as a replacement last week. Jeremy Johnson is a PPR stud, while Darius Joseph and Keenan Holman are slightly more explosive. They are all getting the yellow for now, but Johnson would definitely get a green light if Gilbert ends up playing.
The Texas/Baylor game should feature fantasy points in abundance. For Texas, WR Mike Davis has been beasting of late and is probably the top option on the Longhorns. Malcolm Brown appeared to have the #1 RB spot under wraps until Joe Bergeron outperformed him in the last game. That gives them both some risk this week, but they are both in play. Case McCoy and Jaxon Shipley are fringe options. The Baylor guys are actually kind of cheap on some sites after facing two tough defenses the past two weeks. That puts all their weapons in play. I’m a big fan of Bryce Petty and Antwan Goodley this week, along with now healthy RB Lache Seatsrunk. Petty gets a slight boost due to his propensity to get some rushing scores, especially against a Texas team that struggles against the run. #2 WR Levi Norwood is a decent option on sites where he isn’t too expensive.
The Missouri/Auburn game is the one I am looking forward to the most on this championship Saturday. Some people forget that Missouri lost their starting QB for a month and a half, and they are a blown 17 point 4th quarter lead against South Carolina away from being undefeated. If Ohio State loses and Missouri wins this game, I believe the Tigers should be the #2 team in the country. I am a big fan of QB James Franklin, and WR Dorial Green-Beckham is emerging as his #1 target. They split carries in the backfield, but Henry Josey is the most playable of the bunch. This matchup is problematic for Auburn because they love to run the ball and Missouri has a stout run defense. I actually think Missouri takes this game handily, but I would consider starting Tre Mason for Auburn as he seems matchup-proof at this point. I feel like the big stage will be too much for Nick Marshall to handle when Missouri forces him to throw.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Clint Chelf, Desmond Roland, Blake Bortles, Breshad Perriman, Rannell Hall, Mike Davis, Bryce Petty, Lache Seastrunk, Antwan Goodley, James Franklin, Dorial Green-Beckham, Tre Mason |
| | Trevor Knight, Brennan Clay, JJ Worton, Jeremy Johnson, Darius Joseph, Keenan Holman, Garrett Gilbert (check injury status), Casey Cochran, Malcolm Brown, Joe Bergeron, Glasco Martin, Levi Norwood, L’Damian Washington, Nick Marshall |
| | Sterling Shepard, Jalen Saunders, Josh Stewart, Charlie Moore, Storm Johnson, William Stanback, all Memphis/UConn players outside of Cochran, Case McCoy, Jaxon Shipley, Sammie Coates |
LATE GAMES
Vegas Odds of note:
South Florida vs. Rutgers (-4, 46 1/2)
Stanford vs. Arizona State (-3, 55 1/2)
Duke vs. Florida State (-29 1/2, 62)
Ohio State vs. Michigan State (+6, 51 1/2)
The late games are actually less appealing than the early games, which seems like a letdown. The South Florida vs. Rutgers game sets up to be about as fun as watching paint dry, as the only exploitable element is the Rutgers pass defense. Unfortunately, South Florida has no passing game. Their freshman QB is too much of a risk for me in this one, but WR Andre Davis might be an option given his explosiveness. The USF offense revolves around now-healthy RB Marcus Shaw, and I think he’s a great option and a guy that’s super cheap across the industry. Rutgers is even more of a mess. Chas Dodd appears to have grabbed the starting QB job, but I am not targeting him as he didn’t look very good against UConn. Their star RB Paul James got hurt again last week, so it’s hands off the Rutgers backfield. The only solid option here is reliable TE Tyler Kroft.
I could not believe the line on the Pac-12 championship game when I saw it. Stanford’s defense is legit, and they won the first meeting between these two teams. Stanford runs a pro style offense that isn’t great for fantasy purposes for QB Kevin Hogan. I like the matchup, but RB Tyler Gaffney and WR Ty Montgomery are better options. For Arizona State, Taylor Kelly is still a solid option as Stanford struggles a lot more vs. the pass than the run. Be careful with last week’s surprise in RB D.J. Foster against a very good Stanford run defense. Marion Grice is doubtful for this game, and one nugget of note is that backup RB De’Marieya Nelson scored two touchdowns rushing last week and is listed as a tight end on most sites. He’s in play on sites where that is the case. Jaelen Strong is becoming a solid weekly option at wideout, and Chris Coyle might finally get in the end zone this week. There’s a lot of “average” plays in this game.
As much as I would love to see Duke pull off the shocker, there’s really no chance. Florida State will blow them out of the water, and their elite secondary will do everything they can to shut down Jamison Crowder. The whole Duke team is off limits for me this week, except possibly TE Braxton Deaver, who is cheap and might see more looks if FSU is determined to take Crowder away. Fire up any of the Seminoles you want. Winston, Freeman, Wilder, Greene, Shaw, Benjamin, and O’Leary are all in play. My favorite target is WR Rashad Greene. He’s their best receiver and I think Winston will look to get him involved after the somewhat-fluky amazing game by Kelvin Benjamin last week. Don’t pay a boatload for Benjamin, who was considered their #3 WR before last week.
After some amazing offensive games, almost every site has priced up the Ohio State guys. DraftStreet was clever and kept them down to make you decide. I’ll tell you this — Michigan State’s defense is the best in the country, without question. I think they win a 17-13 type game and I will not be paying for any OSU players this week except MAYBE Carlos Hyde on a site where he is super cheap like DraftStreet. The only player I really like in this game is Michigan State workhorse RB Jeremy Langford. They will feed him all night in an attempt to control the clock and wear down the OSU defense.
So there you have it, I’m calling an Ohio State loss, a Missouri win over Auburn, and a Florida State vs. Missouri national championship game.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Marcus Shaw, Andre Davis, Tyler Kroft, Tyler Gaffney, Ty Montgomery, Taylor Kelly, De’Marieya Nelson (where listed as TE), Jaelen Strong, Jameis Winston, Devonta Freeman, Rashad Greene, Kenny Shaw, Nick O’Leary, Jeremy Langford |
| | Mike White, Chas Dodd, Kevin Hogan, DJ Foster, Chris Coyle, Braxton Deaver, James Wilder, Kelvin Benjamin, Carlos Hyde |
| | Brandon Coleman, Quron Pratt, Devon Cajuste, Anthony Boone, Brandon Connette, Jamison Crowder, Braxton Miller, Devon Smith, Corey Brown, Connor Cook, Bennie Fowler |