CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 11
Welcome to Week 11’s edition of CFB “Traffic Lights” plays. I’m going to break things down by the early game slate and the late game slate.
In the early slate, FD has included several additional games that are not on DK: UTSA/Rice, Georgia State/Troy, FIU/ODU, and UTEP/Western Kentucky (Vegas total of 71). In the late slate, FD has also included some additional games: Idaho/San Diego State, FAU/UNT, and Louisiana Lafayette/New Mexico State.
I’ll analyze the games with the highest projected Vegas totals and then list some other green lights play from the games I didn’t analyze.
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Early Slate – FD & DK
Texas A&M at Auburn (-21.5, 68)
As an A&M fan I’m dreading this game. I think the Vegas line is way too low, and that Auburn is going to absolutely roll. I plan on drowning my sorrows with lots of whiskey, and lots of Nick Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne in my DFS lineups. I love the Auburn offense this week and think they put up 50 points. Over the last two years, A&M has really struggled with the spread rushing attack that AU runs. Here’s what spread rushing attacks did to A&M last year on the ground: Rice (306 yards), Sam Houston State (240), Missouri (225) and Auburn (379). The struggles have continued this year against Rice, Mississippi State and Ole Miss. They’ve especially struggled against the QB, as Dak Prescott accounted for five TDs (three rushing) and Bo Wallace ran for two TDs. Nick Marshall has been on a tear, and just lit up one of the best defenses in the country in Ole Miss. This looks like another 200 yards passing and 100 yard rushing game with four TDs game for Marshall. In fact that is what he did to A&M last year, as he 236 passing yards and two TDs, to go with 100 yards rushing and two TDs. If you want a piece of the Auburn offense but can’t afford Marshall, then fire up Cameron Artis-Payne. He’s averaging 26 carries for over 150 yards and a TD in his last two games, and A&M’s porous defense won’t be able to slow him. The only question in my mind is how many rushing TDs he gets as he goes for another 100 yards again. Last year, AU’s starting RB, Tre Mason, ran for 178 yards and a TD against A&M. Auburn should do most of their damage on the ground, but Sammie Coates and Duke Williams are both intriguing at their current price tags, as I’m expecting Auburn to hit some big play actions plays. A&M’s top CB, Deshazor Everett, looks to be out and their backup and 2nd corner have not been impressive. Of the two, I prefer Duke Williams (37/598/5), who has established himself as the number one WR. However, Sammie Coates (18/358/2) was the leading WR last year and is starting to come around. Coates had five receptions for 105 yards and a TD last year, and dropped another pass that would have gone for a long TD.
Kyle Allen burned a ton of people last week, myself included, as a minimum priced starting QB. He’s still cheap at DK at only $4,800, but even at that price, he’s not someone I’m looking at, except for maybe a stab in the dark on 1 GPP. I have season tickets to the A&M games and he was in attendance last week. He was every bit as bad as the box score indicated, and it looks like A&M is not sure what to run with him. They typically operate out of 4 and 5 WR sets, but spent the majority of the ULM game with a TE and only two to three WR. A&M is expected to open up the playbook this week, but if you can’t move the ball at home against ULM, I don’t see how it happens on the road at Auburn. The only A&M player I am remotely interested in is WR, Speedy Noil. He’s taking snaps at wildcat QB if Allen were to go down (Kenny Hill is suspended), and is really cheap. He’s had quality games in three of his last four games, and has become the go to WR. The A&M coaches now openly talk about scheming the ball into his hands. I’m just not sure if Allen can get him the ball so he is a GPP play.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Nick Marshall (Auburn QB), Cameron Artis-Payne (Auburn RB), Duke Williams (Auburn WR)
Yellow Lights: – Speedy Noil (A&M WR), Sammie Coates (Auburn WR)
Red Lights: – Kyle Allen (Texas A&M QB), A&M RBs and WR other than Speedy Noil
Baylor at OU (-6, 73)
Outside of the Western Kentucky/UTEP game, which is only available on FD, this game is the only one with a Vegas total above 70 in the early slate. Baylor embarrassed OU last year winning 41 -12, as Baylor ran for 255 yards, including 182 rushing yards from Shock Linwood. The OU run defense has been pretty solid this year, allowing 3.39 YPC and 118 YPG (17 nationally) so Linwood is not someone I am actively targeting. However, the OU pass defense has not been very good, as they currently rank 105th in the country. The name “Oklahoma” will scare some away, but I think the Baylor pass offense is a nice target. I like Bryce Petty as a top end QB option, but he falls just below Nick Marshall in my rankings. Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman are the two Baylor WR to target. Goodley was thought to be Petty’s top option, but Coleman has stepped into the Tevin Reese role from last year, and they are really 1A and 1B. I think they both are in play and typically will just take the cheaper option in situations like this. On DK, Antwan Goodley looks particularly cheap at 6.6k. He only had two receptions for seven yards last week, as the long passes went to Coleman, and Baylor jumped out to a huge lead Goodley had success last year in this game as he had six receptions for 80 yards and two TDs. KD Cannon has seen his production plummet since Coleman and Goodley returned to the lineup, so he is a GPP only play at best.
Baylor’s defensive number look good on paper as they are 55th in pass defense, allowing 223 YPG, and 8th in rush defense allowing just 2.69 YPC and 100 YPG. However, when you look at Baylor’s schedule, they have only played two quality offenses so far this year, West Virginia and TCU. Both of those teams scored over 40 points against Baylor, so OU should put up some points here. Vegas agrees as they have OU favored and predicted for right around 40 points. Trevor Knight is my favorite play for OU as Baylor is more susceptible to the pass, and both Trevon Boykin and Clint Trickett had solid games against them. The more important factor is that Trevor Knight has finally started using his legs in the run game again. He’s very athletic, but hasn’t been utilized in the running game too often this year. However, last week he ran 16 times for 146 yards and three TDs. Hopefully, his involvement in the running game is a sign of things to come. The rest of the OU skill position players are tough to predict right now as their top WR, Sterling Shepard, injured his groin last game, and Keith Ford could return at RB. Oklahoma is saying that Shephard will play. If he is truly healthy, he is a good option. However, situations like this are worrisome in CFB, so it’s a situation you need to monitor closer to kick off. Ford was supposed to return last week, but ended up not suiting up. If he plays, then he kills a lot of Samaje Perine’s upside. However, if he is out again then Perine makes a nice GPP play.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Bryce Petty (Baylor QB), Antwan Goodley/Corey Coleman (Baylor WR), Trevor Knight (OU QB), Sterling Shephard (OU WR – check health status)
Yellow Lights: – Shock Linwood (Baylor RB)
Red Lights: – KD Cannon (Baylor WR), Keith Ford/Samaje Perine (if Ford out then bump Perine to yellow)
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Everett Golson (Notre Dame) – He’s been Notre Dame’s entire offense the whole year, and accounted for six of their seven TDs last week, including three rushing TDs. With Notre Dame expected to score 28 points, you can book Golson for probably three TDs minimum. Golson has some similarities to UCLA QB, Brett Hundley, who torched this ASU defense for 420 total yards and 5 total TDs.
Brandon Doughty (Western Kentucky, FD only) – UTEP has been solid against the pass as they are 40th in the country allowing 208 YPG, and held Texas Tech to 278 yards passing. Doughty is coming off a sup-par game so his price has dropped to below 9k. Prior to the last game, he was routinely throwing for well over 300 yards and three TDs a week. Vegas has this total set at 70.5, which is the 2nd highest in the early slate, and WKU favored by 7 so Doughty should return to form this week.
Dane Evans (Tulsa) – I think he is too expensive on FD, but in play as a QB2 on DK. He gets the top statistical match up of the early slate against SMU’s 121st ranked pass defense. Tulsa is not afraid to put the ball in the air, as he has over 40 pass attempts in five of his eight games. He has one of the best WR in the country that no one has heard of, Keevan Lucas, and a solid 2nd option in Keyarris Garrett. Tulsa is also a bad football so they are not expected to blow SMU out, so we should get four quarters out of Evans. With Vegas projecting Tulsa for 35 points, three TDs seems easily in play for Evans.
Christian Hackenberg (Penn State) – To say he’s been a huge disappointment this year would be a huge understatement. The only reason he is listed is because he is really cheap on FD at $5,500 and is facing Indiana, who is 110th in pass defense, allowing 275 YPG. Although the production hasn’t been there for Hackenberg, the volume has been as he has over 40 pass attempts in two straight weeks. If he gets that type of volume again, I don’t see how he can’t reach value. Even Devin Gardner was able to produce 17.6 FD points last week against Indiana
Greg Ward (UH) – He’s my top guy at sub 5k on DK. UH kept the ball on the ground against USF and the TDs went to the RBs so he had a bad fantasy day despite 15/19 passing. Vegas has UH predicted to score 31 points this week, so he should get back in the end zone against a mediocre Tulane defense that is 35th in pass defense and 85th in rush defense. In the two weeks prior to the USF game, he averaged 24 DK Points, which is 5x his salary and what you need to win a GPP.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – S. B. Richardson (Iowa State), Luke Falk (Washington State- GPP on DK), Michael Cummings (Kansas – GPP Value play)
Running Back
Melvin Gordon & Corey Clement (Wisconsin) – Gordon is the premier option in the early slate at RB. He had a good day last week, but only played three quarters and was banged up early in the 4th quarter. Clement is more of a GPP play in my eyes, because his numbers are dependent on the game getting out of hand. Purdue’s rush defense is 81st in the country allowing 4.36 YPC so there is room for both to have good days. Last year against Purdue, Gordon has 147 yards and three TDs on only 16 carries.
Nick Chubb (Georgia) – I’ll like him a lot more if fellow five star RB, Sony Michel remains out. He gets a great matchup against Kentucky who is 94th in rush defense allowing 188 YPG and 4.4 YPC. He’s been incredible since Todd Gurley’s suspension, rushing for at least 140 yards and a TD in every game, and even adding in some receptions. His price has sky rocketed so make sure that Michel isn’t coming back, and if he is how many carries Michel will get. For Chubb’s price, I’m wanting at least 25 carries from him.
Aaron Jones (UTEP, FD only) – The last time WKU was in the FD game slate, they allowed four rushing TDs to the Old Dominion RB, Ray Lawry. They are 112th in the country allowing 227 YPG and 4.93 YPC. He had a rough time against Southern Miss last week so his price dropped. However, he is a really solid back, is still receiving the bulk of UTEP’s carries, and contributes in the passing game. This game is the 2nd highest total of the early slate so you’ll want some exposure to it.
Leon Allen (Western Kentucky, FD only) – Allen was hurt earlier in this year and when he returned he was briefly in a timeshare with Anthony Wales. However, he has regained the top spot as he has out carried Wales 46 to 11 the last two weeks. He is WKU’s hammer inside the 10, and UTEP has a very bad rush defense that is allowing 5.58 YPC.
Zack Langer (Tulsa) – I’m not sold on his talents, but I am sold on his volume and his opponent. In the past three weeks, he has 30, 26, and 20 carries, and has gone over 100 yards twice. SMU is 116th in rush defense allowing 5.49 YPC. He is the bare minimum on FD and only 4k on DK so he makes a good RB2/Flex as a salary saver.
Tarean Folston (Notre Dame) – Folston is a great mid-range play if you don’t roster Golson at QB. He’s taken over the Notre Dame backfield and has at least 98 yards rushing in each of his last games to go with 3 total rush TDs. He also contributes some in the passing game. ASU’s top DT is expected to miss this game and they were already vulnerable to the running game allowing 4.37 YPG and 180 YPG (88th nationally).
Akeel Lynch (Penn State) – He’s a GPP only play as he is risky and still listed 2nd on the depth chart. However, he had 21 carries last week, while starter Bill Belton only had 8. In the postgame, PSU head coach James Franklin said “we’re still going to rotate backs, but Akeel was more decisive. That sounds to me like Belton is the starter in name only, and that Lynch should see the bulk of the carries again. I’m not sure if I’ll use him but I could throw him in a GPP as a pivot from Langer as they both hovering around minimum price. This week he gets the swiss cheese Indiana defense.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – David Cobb (Minnesota), DJ Foster (Arizona State – cheap on DK)
Wide Receiver
Keevan Lucas (Tulsa) – Tulsa is a bad football team. Luckily for them (and us) they get to play the worst team in the country, SMU. Tulsa doesn’t have many playmakers so they look to feed the ball to Keevan, as has 11 receptions in each of his last two games. SMU is 121st in pass defense allowing 313 YPG, which should lead to a huge day for Keevan. This game only boasts a two TD spread so Lucas should have all four quarters to rack up double digit receptions against SMU’s terrible secondary.
Keyarris Garret (Tulsa) – This is a GPP only play, but if you want a piece of the Tulsa passing game on the cheap then Garrett is your guy. Everyone will be on Lucas, but Garrett is a nice swerve in a GPP. If Garrett has a big game and takes away some of Lucas’ production then you will be in a great spot. Garrett was Tulsa’s leading WR two years ago with 845 yards and nine TDs, but tore his ACL in the first game of 2013. He’s missed two games with injuries this year, but finally scored a TD last week and has at least 50 receiving yards in every game this year.
Victor Bolden (Oregon State) – He’s been a disappointment this year, but he makes a nice GPP flier this week. He finally had a good last week against Cal (who doesn’t) with 11 receptions for 119 yards. He gets a great opportunity to make it two good weeks in a row as he gets the 119th ranked Washington State pass defense this week.
William Fuller (Notre Dame) – he was disappointing last week against Navy, but he on the year he is still Golson’s top target with 46 receptions for 599 yards and nine TDs. This is a tough rough game for Notre Dame so Golson should lean on his go to target.
Jamison Crowder (Duke) – We finally had the Jamison Crowder break out game last week as he had nine receptions for 165 yards and two TDs, which was great for my DK lineups. The week prior we had eight receptions for 99 yards so it looks like something has finally clicked. He gets a solid spot to keep building on the momentum as Duke is on the road against Syracuse’s 56th ranked pass defense.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Allen Lazard (Iowa State), Daesean Hamilton/Geno Lewis (Penn State), Vince Mayle/River Cracraft (Washington State- check health of Cracraft), Jordan Taylor (Rice)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – EJ Bibbs (Iowa State), Jonnu Smith (FIU), Ben Koyack (Notre Dame), Mitchell Henry (WKU), Jimmay Mundine (Kansas), Maxx Williams (Minnesota), Jake Duzey (Iowa), Jesse James (Penn State)
Late Slate – FD & DK
Colorado at Arizona (-17, 69)
Last week, the UCLA/ Arizona was supposed to be a high scoring affair, but unfortunately turned into a dud. Arizona is coming off a very disappointing 17-7 loss to UCLA. Anu Solomon had 48 pass attempts, but really struggled and for the first time in a few weeks, showed that he is still a freshman. However, He gets a perfect spot for a bounce back against a bad Colorado defense that recently gave up seven passing TDs to USC. On the year, Colorado is 88th in pass defense 226 YPG and a very high 25 passing TDs (4th worst in the country). The RB situation is still one to avoid as Terris Jones-Grigsby and Nick Wilson are still splitting carries, and Arizona has turned into a passing team recently. Cayleb Jones is the top guy to target at WR for Arizona. He’s a big at 6’3 and Colorado has struggled with big WR targets. He should add one or two TDs to the 25 passing TDs already given up by CU.
Nelson Spruce got back going again last week with 13 receptions for 138 yards. He’s in another good spot to keep it going as Arizona’s pass defense is 118th in the country, and Colorado should be trailing and therefore passing a lot. Sefo Liufau should throw for two TDs or so, but he’s more expensive than I’d like to see. Avoid the Colorado RB situation.
Green Lights: – Anu Solomon (Arizona QB), Cayleb Jones (Arizona WR), Nelson Spruce (Colorado WR)
Yellow Lights: – Austin Hill (Arizona WR), Sefo Liufau (Colorado QB)
Red Lights: – Arizona RB
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota (Oregon) – If you can afford him, he’s your top QB in the late slate. Utah is a very solid defense, and can really get to the QB and lead the nation in sacks. However, when they don’t sack the QB, they are very susceptible as they are 97th in pass defense. Also, Oregon is starting to gel offensively as they just up 45 points against a very tough Stanford defense, and Mariota had 38 DK points.
Brett Hundley (UCLA) – He was disappointing throwing the ball last week against Arizona, but was able to salvage his day by rushing for 131 yards. He rarely gives you a complete dud, because his rushing numbers provide a high floor. When he is on his passing game, he puts up a huge game. He gets another susceptible pass defense that is 109th in the nation allowing 275 YPG. Further boosting Hundley’s matchup is the fact that Washington just dismissed their top cornerback, Marcus Peters, who was predicted to possibly be a first round NFL draft pick.
Joe Gray (San Jose State) – He was named the starter in Week 5 and looks to be settling in as he has over 300 yards passing in each of his last three games. He gets a Fresno State defense that is 101st in pass defense and has shown a propensity to give up big pass plays this year. He’s a solid mid-range QB on FD at only $6,900.
Tyler Rogers (New Mexico State, FD only) – He’s a $2 GPP only play, as he seems to be very inconsistent. I’m not sure what happened against Idaho as I’ve never seen him play, but in three of his last four games he has attempted at least 33 passes. Last week, he threw for 400 yards and three TDs. This week he gets Louisiana Lafayette who is 107th in passing defense allowing 270 YPG. He’s only 6.1k and pairing him up with his top WR, Teldrick Morgan, is a cheap and very low owned handcuff.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Rakeem Cato (Marshall – good DK price), Grant Hedrick (Boise State – good DK price), Jacquez Johnson (FAU – only available on FD), Quinn Kaehler (San Diego State – GPP flier at 4,500 on FD)
Running Backs
Jay Ajayi (Boise State) – He’s expensive but he is in a tremendous spot. New Mexico is 123rd in rushing defense allowing 275 rushing YPG and 5.88 YPC. Ajayi usually sees 25 carries minimum, along with a few receptions. With that type of volume and UNM’s poor excuse for a defense, he should be in for a monster game. Last year against UNM, he accounted for 250 total yards and two TDs.
Elijah McGuire (ULL) – He’s only available on FD, where he is underpriced at $7,600. He gets the best matchup of the night against New Mexico State’s incredibly bad run defense that is allowing 6.35 YPC and 326 YPG… dead last in the country. He shares some carries with Alonzo Harris, who is the goal line back. However, Harris is questionable for this one so McGuire could get the bulk of the work. Two weeks ago, he ran for 265 yards and four TDs in a mid-week game against Arkansas State. I was randomly watching it and he is very explosive.
Dee Hart (Colorado State) – Hart’s main problem this year has been getting enough volume, as he has been explosive when given the opportunity. Last week, CSU QB, Garrett Grayson, and top WR, Rashard Higgins, were both injured so he was given over 20 carries for just the third time all year. He responded with over 100 rushing yards and four TDs. According to the CSU coaching staff, Grayson and Higgins “could” play, but there is a good chance they lean on Hart again. With a safe volume, the former Alabama RB should be in for a nice day against Hawaii’s 79th ranked rushing defense. He’s more of a GPP play for me as this slate is just loaded with RBs in great matchups, who get a lot of volume.
Donnell Pumphrey (San Diego State – only available on FD) – Pumphrey’s price has dropped down to $8,200 just in time for a prime matchup against Idaho. He was held in check by Nevada last week, but otherwise has been running wild this year. He faced New Mexico, who has a run defense that is very bad like Idaho’s and ran for 246 yards and two TDs. On the year, Idaho is 119th in the country allowing 5.97 YPC and 256 YPG.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Devon Johnson (Marshall), Larry Rose III (New Mexico State- only available on FD), Tyler Ervin (San Jose State – only available on FD), Marteze Waller (Fresno State), Paul Perkins (UCLA), Kelvin Taylor/Matt Jones (Florida), Michael Dyer (Louisville)
Wide Receivers
DeVante Parker (Louisville) – Parker missed the first eight weeks of the season, but hasn’t missed a beat since returning as he is averaging around eight receptions and 170 YPG. He put up over 200 yards last week against FSU. The only thing holding him back has been that he hasn’t reached the end zone. I think that changes this week against Boston College’s middling pass defense.
Tyler Winston (San Jose State) – If you’re playing Joe Gray at QB, then his top WR, Winston, makes a nice handcuff at a cheap price. He put up some big numbers at the end of last year, but hasn’t fully broken loose yet this year. Fresno State gives up lots of big plays through the air (101st in pass defense), and Winston could be in for that break out day that we have been waiting on. He had 10 receptions for 164 yards and a TD against Fresno State last year.
Jordan Payton (UCLA) – I like Payton on DK as he is really cheap, and is coming off a good game. He can be sporadic, but he has scored in three of four games with at least five receptions in each. 4,800 on DK is just too cheap. The matchup is ideal as it is on the road against a poor Washington secondary that is 109th in passing defense.
Tommy Shuler (Marshall) – I wrote up Jamison Crowder last week and he had a huge game, so maybe it will work with Shuler. I love the RBs in this game slate so I need some value and Shuler is so tempting on both FD and DK. The problem with Shuler, and Rakeem Cato to an extent, is that Devon Johnson is running wild, and their defense is locking people down. Last week, Johnson ran for an insane 272 yards and four TDs. Southern Miss is a poor rush defense that is 95th in the country so Johnson could run wild again. However, they did shut down a solid back in Aaron Jones last week. If they can control Johnson, then Shuler and Cato could finally have a big day as Southern Miss is also bad against the pass, ranking 93rd in the country.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Rashad Greene (FSU), Tyler Lockett (Kansas State), Lucky Whitehead (FAU – only available on FD), Shane Williams-Rhodes/Thomas Sperbeck (Boise State), Teldrick Morgan (New Mexico State- only available on FD)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Pharaoh Brown (Oregon), Gerald Christian (Louisville), Nick O’Leary (FSU), Deon-tay McManus (Marshall), Jake Roh (Boise State),
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!