CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 12
Welcome to Week 12’s edition of CFB “Traffic Lights” plays. I’m going to break things down by the early game slate and the late game slate.
In the early slate, FD has included several additional games that are not on DK: Nevada/Air Force, Eastern Michigan/Western Michigan, and Army/Western Kentucky (Vegas total of 71), whereas DK has included Memphis/Tulane and Utah/Standford. In the late slate, FD has also included some additional games: ULL/ULM and Texas State/South Alabama.
I’ll analyze the games with the highest projected Vegas totals and then list some other green light plays from the games I didn’t analyze.
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Early Slate – FD & DK
Pittsburgh at UNC (-2, 70)
Based on the Vegas total line and with UNC favored, it looks like Marquise Williams should have a big game. Pitt has been more vulnerable to the run as they are 62nd in the country (4.38 YPC) and 7th in pass defense. However, Williams is a guy that can take advantage of a bad rush defense, as he is UNC’s leading rusher. Also, the Pitt secondary was just picked apart by Duke’s Anthony Boone and Jamison Crowder. UNC is coming off of a bye, and Williams has said he is 100%. As long as UNC coach, Larry Fedora, didn’t use the bye week trying to moronically figure out how to get backup QB, Mitch Trubisky, on the field more, which is entirely possibly with Fedora, then Williams should put up a very nice game. The UNC RB situation has typically been one to avoid. However, Romar Morris is suspended and Elijah Hood looks to be doubtful so that leaves TJ Logan with the bulk of the carries. He was in a similar situation against Georgia Tech this year and had 14 carries for 75 yards and a TD to go with five receptions for 31 yards. It’s not somewhere I’ll probably go, but if Hood is out, he is minimum price on FD so he could be in play as a cheap RB in a GPP. The top UNC WR is Ryan Switzer, but they spread the ball around and Pitt has a good pass defense, so I wouldn’t look that way.
As a DFS player, I love Pitt because their production is very predictable. It’s the James Conner and Tyler Boyd show, with a little Chad Voytik sprinkled in. UNC is a sieve defensively and rank 110th in rush defense, allowing 4.83 YPC and 219 rushing YPG, and 116th in pass defense, allowing 290 passing YPG. If you’re spending at RB, James Conner is the top guy on my board, even above Melvin Gordon. Conner had a tiny mid-year dip, but has been on fire lately with eight TDs in his last three games. He had over 260 rushing yards and three TDs in his last outing against Duke, and another 200 yard multiple TD game is in play again this week. Tyler Boyd is Pitt’s big play WR and is a guy who will be playing on Sundays. He’s putting up yardage as he has 16 receptions for 277 yards over his last two games, but hasn’t reached the end zone. When the TDs come, he is going have a monster game and this looks like it could be the spot. Chad Voytik, the Pitt QB, is intriguing due to the matchup and his usage in the running game. However, he’s priced too high for my taste on DK and FD, and I’d rather roster Boyd and/or Conner to get a piece of the Pitt offense.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – James Conner (Pitt RB), Tyler Boyd (Pitt WR), Marquise Williams (UNC QB)
Yellow Lights: – Chad Voytik (Pitt QB), TJ Logan (UNC RB – only GPP and only if Hood out)
Red Lights: – UNC WRs
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Trevone Boykin (TCU) – Fresh off of a really impressive five-TD performance against a really good KSU defense, Boykin gets a cake matchup in Kansas. Boykin is a dual threat QB who can get yards via the run or pass, and Kansas is a defense who struggles against both. Kansas is 94th in pass defense, allowing 249 passing YPG, and 89th in run defense, allowing 187 YPG and 5.0 YPC. TCU just moved to 4th in the CFB playoff, however, they don’t have any more big games to impress the committee, and Baylor is right on their heels (and already beat TCU). Due to that, TCU is going to need to win impressively, so they will be motivated to put up a big number here, which should ensure Boykin of at least three quarters of action. Vegas has the TCU total at around 43 points, so another four-to-five TD game from Boykin is in play again.
J.T. Barrett (Ohio State) – I’m personally not sold on Minnesota’s 7-2 record. However, this game sets up as a trap game for Ohio State as they are coming off of a big win against Michigan State and must go on the road. Vegas has Ohio State pegged for around 35 points, but thinks it stays close as Ohio State is only a 12-point favorite. Minnesota is 26th in pass defense and 37th in run defense, however, OSU is rolling offensively so this will be a good battle. I side with OSU’s offense as Minnesota’s schedule to date reads as follows: Eastern Illinois, Middle Tennessee, TCU, San Jose State, Michigan, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa. Outside of TCU, those are some pretty bad offenses. In the game against TCU, Boykin was solid, but not great, as he had 360 yards of total offense and two TDs (26 FD points). I’m expecting similar yardage from Barrett, but he is a TD monster, so I think he’s likely to account for four of Ohio State’s projected five TDs. Two weeks ago, he was banged up against Illinois, with a sprained MCL, so they limited his workload in that game. However, he looked fully healthy last week against a top Michigan State defense, with 380 yards of total offense and five TDs.
Joshua Dobbs (Tennessee) – Following his destruction of South Carolina, his price has jumped so he’s not bargain bin anymore. However, I still think he should be on your radar if you need a QB in the 7K range. He just shredded South Carolina for 301 passing yards and two TDs, and 166 rushing yards and three TDs. The South Carolina game showed that he has a very high ceiling against a poor defense. However, the week prior against Alabama, he was still able to produce 20 fantasy points. He’s been getting a ton of work in the run game, as he had 19 carries against Alabama and 24 carries against South Carolina. This week he gets a Kentucky defense that has been getting lit up. Kentucky is particularly bad against the run as they are 97th in the country, allowing 200 YPG and 4.76 YPC. I wouldn’t expect a repeat of the South Carolina game, but with Tennessee expected to score 34 points, I think 300 total yards and three total TDs is realistic.
Anu Solomon (Arizona) – Arizona is typically a run-heavy team under Rich Rodriguez, however, they’ve turned into a pass-heavy team this year. Solomon has at least 38 pass attempts in each of his last four games, and also gets around 10 carries per game. Washington kicked their top CB off of the team prior to the UCLA game, and were promptly lit up by Brett Hundley. On the year, they are 110th in pass defense, so it’s an exploitable matchup for Solomon.
DeShaun Watson (Clemson) – Unfortunately, he’s not available on FD, but he is on DK. He only started two games before he hurt his hand, but he was fantastic in both starts. In his two starts, he averaged 350 passing yards, 45 rushing yards and five TDs a game. He returns to face a very weak Georgia Tech defense. They are 84th in pass defense and 73rd in run defense, but they allow 5.20 YPC. Those numbers would be a lot worse if it weren’t for their run heavy offense that is able to keep opposing offenses off of the field. However, Clemson is the fourth-best rush defense in the country and has a great defensive line, so they are in a good position to slow Georgia Tech down. If Georgia Tech is unable to control the clock, then Watson should have a field day.
Treon Harris (Florida) – If you’re looking to take a flyer at QB in the early slate so that you can load up at other positions, then Harris is the top option. South Carolina is 79th in pass defense, allowing 237 YPG, and 112th in rush defense, allowing an insane 5.90 YPC. He’s a true freshman, who is a dual threat QB, and held offers from every school in the South. He’s still getting his feet wet but was impressive against Vanderbilt as he rushed for 50 yards and two TDs, and also threw for 215 yards. Another performance like that would easily pay off his low salary ($5,700 FD and $4,800 DK). With South Carolina on deck, I think he can replicate the numbers he put up against Vanderbilt. The risk is that Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor steal all of the TDs. However, Joshua Dobbs, a similar young dual threat QB at Tennessee, just shredded South Carolina for five TDs.
Cody Thomas (Oklahoma) – Trevor Knight is out against Texas Tech, so Thomas will draw the start. He’s minimum price on FD, but is $5,900 on DK. I’m not really interested in him on DK at that price, and would side with Treon Harris over Thomas. He is in a great spot as Tech is horrific defensively as they are 119th against the rush and 95th against the pass. Despite the good matchup, I think Thomas is a GPP only play for a few reasons. The first is that we are flying blind here and don’t really know what to expect from him, as this is his first start and he has only seen limited action on the field. The second reason is that I think there is a good chance Oklahoma’s eases him into his first start and employs a run heavy offense against Tech’s terrible run defense. The upside is certainly there at his price tag, but he does carry some risk. Blake Bell will step into the backup QB role so he’s a nice flier to take at TE this week. Could we see a return of the bulldozer?
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Cody Fajardo (Nevada), Everett Golson (Notre Dame), Davis Webb (Texas Tech – nice price on DK and he is expected to play)
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) & Devon Johnson (Marshall) – First off, be sure to check Devon Johnson’s health so we don’t get a repeat of last week, but based on what I have seen he is expected to play. Based on what these two have done this year, they are obviously in play every week. I don’t mind them this week, but if I’m paying top dollar at RB, my preference lies with James Conner and Jarvion Franklin, who are in prime spots. Melvin Gordon gets a Nebraska team that has been solid against the run as they are 20th in rush defense. Also, Wisconsin has been feasting on bad run defense for the last eight weeks, and the Nebraska defense will be the best they have seen since Week 1. The last time Nebraska played Wisconsin, two years ago, they were embarrassed 70-31 and gave up an unreal 539 rushing yards and eight TDs. I think we see an angry Nebraska front seven this week. As far as Devon Johnson goes, he is facing a solid run defense in Rice (33rd in the country) and is coming off an injury. Marshall is very tight lipped about injuries so I’d like to see that he is fully healthy before paying his tag. Gordon and Johnson have been the premier RBs over the last few weeks and that could continue, but this week I’ll side with the matchups of James Conner and Jarvion Franklin.
Jarvion Franklin (Western Michigan, FD only) – He’s rarely in the player pool, but when he is take advantage and get this guy on your roster. He is a TD machine as he has three TDs in three of his last four games, at least 149 rushing yards in each of his last four, and at least 29 carries in each of his last three games. Eastern Michigan is brutal against the run, as they are 116th in the country allowing 5.58 YPC and 239 YPG. This game does carry a big spread (WMU -27), but if it gets out of hand I expect Franklin to have played a big part in it.
Tevin Coleman (Indiana) – Coleman’s price has dipped below 7K on DK and 9K on FD. I like him on DK, but on FD would just pay the extra money for Franklin. Coleman’s numbers have suffered recently for two reasons. The first is that the Indiana offense has really been struggling after losing their QB, Nate Sudfeld. The second is that Indiana has faced a tough three-game stretch of very good run defenses in Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan. This week though they finally get a bad run defense in Rutgers, who is 92nd in run defense and allows 5.29 YPC. They should be able to find running room this week, and should lean on Tevin due to their poor QB play. This looks like a good bounce-back spot for Coleman at his lowest price point of the season.
Leon Allen (Western Kentucky, FD only) – Allen only had 14 carries for 48 yards and a TD last week, as WKU fell behind and UTEP controlled the clock. However, he was the only RB to receive carries so he is back in control of the WKU backfield. Also, although he was slowed on the ground, he contributed eight receptions for 88 yards and a TD in the pass game. He should get at least 20 touches in this one again, and Army has a poor defense overall, as they are 87th in rush defense, allowing 5.09 YPC, and 90th in pass defense. His price is still sitting at 7.3k on FD so he’s a good mid-range target. The main worry here would be that the Army triple option eats up clock against WKU’s terrible defense.
Matt Jones (Florida) – He splits carries with Kelvin Taylor, but I think Jones is the better back and he gets more carries so he is my preference between the two. He had a monster game two weeks ago against Georgia, but didn’t score a TD last week. His price is still very cheap ($5.8 FD and $4.2 DK) and he gets an awful run defense in South Carolina that allows an incredible 5.90 YPC. I think he’s an easy bet for 100 rushing yards. He will have to fight for redzone carries with Taylor and his QB, Treon Harris, but I think he gets back into the endzone this week.
Mark Weisman (Iowa) – He was terrible last week against Minnesota, but he scored at least 20 FD points in his previous five games. I think he’s in play on FD, but would not target him on DK as he doesn’t catch any passes and hasn’t consistently hit the 100 yard bonus. This week he gets the slump buster known as the Illinois defense. Illinois is 121st in rush defense, and allow 5.30 YPC. He should be good for at least his typical 90 yards and two TDs, but could have a higher ceiling this week due to the opponent.
Jalen Hurd (Tennessee) – I like him better on DK as he has only scored two rushing TDs on the year. Kentucky has a very poor defense (97th nationally) and he has taken over the lion’s share of the RB duties from Marlin Lane. He gets a nice bump on DK as Dobbs is a young QB and more prone to check downs in the passing game. In the two games that Dobbs has started, he has 13 receptions so he’s a nice cheap option on a PPR site like DK.
Keith Ford (Oklahoma) – He returned from injury last week and looked good. He will still share some carries with Samaje Perine and Alex Ross, but I think he should see the most carries out of the trio. Trevor Knight is out for this game and I think OU is going to pound the run at Texas Tech’s brutal run defense, which is 119th in the country allowing 4.92 YPC. In a GPP, you could also take a shot at Perine, as I think one of these OU RBs goes off. My guess is that it is Ford.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Wayne Gallman (Clemson – cheap on DK), Aaron Green (TCU – only if BJ Catalon is out), Ezekiel Elliot (Ohio State)
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper (Alabama) – Mississippi State has a top-notch run defense, which should force Alabama to the pass against State’s porous pass defense. Mississippi State is 122nd in pass defense, allowing 300 YPG, so this is a great spot for Cooper. Lane Kiffin feeds his #1 WR the ball, and outside of one down game against Arkansas, Amari has been money in the bank. On DK $7,600 is the cheapest price we have seen on him in a while, so jump on board before it shoots back up to 9K.
Jakeem Grant (Texas Tech) – This play depends on the health of his QB, Davis Webb, but from what I have read Webb should be ready to go. The OU defense has been overrated the entire year, and everyone finally realized it last week. They are especially vulnerable to the pass, as they are 111th in pass defense allowing 282 YPG. Baylor consistently picked on OU’s CB Julian Wilson, as Corey Coleman had over 200 yards receiving. Texas Tech will move Grant around the field and I expect Kingsbury to try to scheme his top WR into matchups with Wilson. Grant’s price is way too low due to him coming off of a one-catch, 10-yard performance. However, that performance came against a tough Texas defense with a walk-on QB throwing him the ball (Davis Webb missed the Texas game and his backup was injured during the game). Webb is expected to be fully healthy, Texas Tech is coming off a bye, and OU just had their last fleeting hope of a Big 12 title get trounced. This sets up as a great spot for the entire Tech passing game at very low price points. Although I prefer Grant, I think you could also take a look at Bradley Marquez in GPPs.
Cayleb Jones (Arizona) – Jones burned a lot of owners last week, including myself, with only three receptions for 18 yards. However, his price has dropped too far and he is still Arizona’s top WR. He gets a great matchup against the porous Washington secondary, who is without their best CB, so he should get back on track this week
Corey Davis (Western Michigan, FD only) – Western Michigan appears to be very similar to Pitt, in that they are the Jarvion Franklin and Corey Davis show. They pound the ball to Franklin then hit big plays with Corey Davis. He’s been on fire his last two games and gets a very bad secondary in Eastern Michigan that is 105th against the pass. Western Michigan should have success on the ground, and think he’ll get behind the defense at least once when they go play action.
Mike Williams (Clemson) – There might not be anyone happier in the country to see DeShaun Watson back from injury. He’s a big play WR and Cole Stoudt just doesn’t have the arm. However, Watson does and Williams has had huge days in both the games that Watson started. In those two games, he had six receptions for 155 yards and two TDS, and six receptions for 122 yards and two TDs. Watson is back this week, his price has dropped, and they face a weak defense so it’s a good spot for Williams.
Josh Doctson (TCU) – He’s working himself back from an ankle injury he suffered two weeks ago, so his production dropped the past two weeks. However, he is still Boykin’s favorite target and his price really dropped, especially on FD. This is great buy low opportunity as he should be getting back to full strength and TCU should be able to name their score against Kansas’s pitiful defense.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – William Fuller (Notre Dame), Jordan Taylor (Rice), Sterling Shepard (OU – check if playing)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Blake Bell (OU – will serve as backup QB, maybe see return of Belldozer package?), Maxx Williams (Minnesota), Jake Duzey (Iowa), Bucky Hodges (Virginia Tech), OJ Howard (Alabama), Mitchell Henry (WKU, FD only), Tyreese Russell (EMU, FD only), Ben Koyack (Notre Dame)
Late Slate – FD & DK
Auburn at Georgia (-2.5, 69)
This game has the highest Vegas total of the late slate, and I would even lean to the over. Georgia is really struggling defensively, as they gave up 214 yards rushing to Kentucky last week (4.67 YPG), and 418 rushing yards to Florida the week prior (7.0 YPC). That is bad news with Auburn’s potent rush attack coming to town. Nick Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne both look to be in good spots here. Marshall loves to call his own number inside the 10, as he has seven rushing TDs in his last three games, and should put up a few more on Saturday night. He had 300 yards of total offense and three TDs last year, including two rushing TDs in this matchup. Artis-Payne has rushed for at least 138 yards in each of his last three games with at least a TD in each. He took it to another level last week with 200 yards and two TDs. Auburn’s leading WR, Duke Williams was injured last week and will miss this week so Sammie Coates and Quan Bray get a bump. I would lean to Sammie Coates, but he’s a GPP only play on non PPR sites.
I’m also expecting UGA to put up a lot of points in this one. However, predicting where they will come from is the problem. Hutson Matson doesn’t get enough volume so he isn’t on my radar. Todd Gurley returns from suspension, and the big question is how the carries will be divided among Gurley, and Chubb. It appears that Sony Michel is listed as questionable so he may not be in the mix. Chubb is expensive and will get a big reduction in volume so he is off my radar completely. Due to the uncertainty, I think Gurley makes a great GPP play, but will wait to see how the carries shake out before I use in my 50/50’s. My guess is he gets around 18 to 20 which is enough to do damage. If he gets the 25 he was getting before the suspension then you are in great shape. However, Auburn does have a good run defense (29th in the country). Georgia will probably have a run heavy approach so I’d probably avoid the UGA WRs, except for maybe Malcolm Mitchell in a GPP. Auburn has struggled in pass defense (99th in pass defense) and has given up a lot of big plays and Mitchell is getting healthy and is UGA’s best deep threat.
Green Lights: – Nick Marshall (Auburn QB), Cameron Artis-Payne (Auburn RB), Todd Gurley (Georgia RB – GPP only)
Yellow Lights: – Sammie Coates (AU WR – GPP), Malcolm Mitchell (UGA WR – GPP only), Hutson Mason (Georgia QB)
Red Lights: – Nick Chubb (UGA RB)
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Christian Stewart (BYU) – BYU just lost Jamaal Williams for the year and is very thin at RB. Due to their lack of RBs, I think they will turn this game over to Stewart, as they have done over the last four weeks. Stewart has at least 37 pass attempts in each of his last four games, and this is a bad UNLV defense. BYU’s team total is around 42 to 43 points, and with BYU’s lack of healthy RBs, Stewart should account for a lot of that production.
Quinton Flowers (South Florida) – The top two QBs at South Florida have been a disaster this year, so true freshman Quinton Flowers will get his shot at the job this week. He’s raw in his passing ability but is a great athlete as he was a 4 star recruit, who held offers from Nebraska, Florida and Alabama out of high school. He chose South Florida as they were willing to give him a shot at QB, whereas the other schools were looking at him as an athlete. He’s bare minimum on both FD and DK so he is worth a look in GPPs. I expect him to do most of his damage with his feet against SMU’s 115th ranked run defense, but SMU’s pass defense is so bad (122nd in the country) that they could turn some guys loose in the secondary and he could hit some easy throws.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: Jameis Winston (Florida State), Grant Hedrick (Boise State), Taylor Kelly (Arizona State)
Running Backs
Jay Ajayi (Boise State) – He’s the most expensive RB in the late slate, but if you’re spending at RB, he is the guy you want. He has at least two rushing TDs in each of his last four games, and contributes in the passing game, which is big on a full PPR site like DK. San Diego State is 46th in rush defense, but haven’t faced very many good rushing teams. Nevada the one good running team they have faced had two RBs go over 100 yards. With Boise projected to score 35 points, Ajayi should be involved in at least two of those scores to go with his typical 150+ total yards.
Marlon Mack (South Florida) – He’s been “all or nothing” this year, so he would normally be too risky for my cash games. However, that risk is negated by his opponent, SMU. SMU is beyond awful defensively and allows 5.37 YPC, so this looks like an “all” game.
Jeremy Langford (Michigan State) – Michigan State really monitored his carries during the early portions of the season, but have unleashed Langford on the Big 10 recently. He has 100 rushing yards in seven straight games, and has scored three TDs in each of his last three games. Michigan State is coming off of a disappointing loss to Ohio State and Langford should take out his frustration on Maryland’s 94th ranked run defense.
DJ Foster (Arizona State) – Foster hasn’t had a big game in quite a while. However, he did run for 120 last week against a solid Notre Dame run defense. The return of Taylor Kelly at QB really helps him, as the defense has to also account for Kelly’s running ability, which opens up more lanes for him. I really like his price on DK due to his pass catching ability. I think a breakout game is coming, and Oregon State’s defense is mediocre (56th in run defense and 73rd in pass defense).
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Elijah McGuire (ULL), Donnell Pumphrey (San Diego State)
Wide Receivers
Victor Bolden (Oregon State) – He was expected to step into Brandin Cooks role and put up big numbers, but has disappointed for the majority of the year as the Oregon State passing game never got on tract. However, the Oregon State passing game looks to finally be improving as he had double digit receptions in two straight weeks. Oregon State is expected to be trailing and is going to have to pass to keep up with Arizona State’s potent offense so Bolden should continue his improved play against the Sun Devil’s 71st ranked pass defense.
Devante Davis (UNLV) – Davis has been injured for the majority of the year, so you are getting him on the cheap on DK. Even at 7k on FD, he is in play. In his first game back from injury last week, he promptly had 6 receptions for 114 yards and a TD. UNLV should be trailing throughout and should be throwing a lot against BYU’s porous pass defense (113th in the country), so it sets up great for Devante.
Bud Sasser (Missouri) – Maty Mauk hasn’t completed very many passes this year, but the ones he has completed have gone to Sasser. He is Missouri’s weapon in the red zone, and despite scoring two TDs in each of his last two games, he is still cheap at 6k on FD and 4.4k on DK.
Rashad Greene (Florida State) – Rashad is a big game WR and FSU will need him to step up big in this one. He has been at his best in FSU’s closest games and is coming off of a 13 reception game. Growing up, I remember a movie with Michael Keaton called “Mr. Mom.” The little kid in that movie had a “woobie,” which is what he called hisa security blanket. Well Rashad is Jameis’ “woobie” and I expect Jameis to target him early and often.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Jaelen Strong (Arizona State), Andre Davis (USF) , Shane Williams-Rhodes & Thomas Sperbeck (Boise State), Ezell Ruffin (SDSU), Rashon Caeser (ULM), Tony Lippett (Michigan State)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Nick O’Leary (FSU), Jake Roh (Boise State), Clive Walford (Miami), Josiah Price (Michigan State), Connor Hamlett (Oregon State), Marcus Smith (North Texas)
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general.
If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!