CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 13
Welcome to Week 13’s edition of CFB “Traffic Lights” plays. I’m switching things up this week a little bit, as I wanted to focus in on the big tournament on FanDuel. I’ll break down the entire early slate on FD in a kind of “Grind Down” style, but won’t be covering the late slate (I’m just going to list the guys in play for the late slate at the end).
I encourage everyone to get into that FD 200K Super Hail Mary, as it has the highest prize pool of the year, and filling it would encourage the sites to continue to run big CFB tournaments. Also, I’ve written this up assuming that weather is okay in each game. I’m not a weather man and I typically don’t check weather until later in the week, so be sure to check the weather for these games later on in the week.
All that being said let’s get to this week’s breakdown. I’ll do my best to not recommend other RBs over a RB that goes out and breaks the single game rushing record (damnit Melvin Gordon!). I was actually feeling pretty good about James Conner’s 220 rushing and four TDs last week (as well as Coleman and Leon Allen), and thought that the Gordon fade might work out. Then the Wisconsin game started and Melvin happened. Anyway enough commentary about last week’s moronic recommendation and on to this week’s picks!
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Early Slate
Rutgers at Michigan State (-22, 57.5)
Rushing Defense: Rutgers – 99th (202 YPG, 5.32 YPC), MSU – 8th (104 YPG, 3.58 YPC)
Passing Defense: Rutgers – 63rd (226 YPG), MSU – 32nd (202 YPG)
Michigan State is a defense I typically just avoid, and Rutgers is an offense that I have avoided this year. Leonte Caroo (46/933/8) is the only Rutgers player I’d even remotely think about. However, due to his poor QB play and the tough Spartan defense, he’s not someone who is high on my list. This game should get out of hand, so maybe he gets loose in garbage time.
Michigan State is a run first team so Connor Cook doesn’t carry the upside I want at QB. The two prime targets here are Jeremy Langford and Tony Lippett. Langford is too cheap on DK but is expensive on FD. I expect his ownership to be pretty low as most will just pay up for Devon Johnson or Melvin Gordon instead of paying 9.6k for Langford. That should make him a nice GPP play as he gives you 150 yards and three-TD upside. He’s been on quite the roll in his last four games with eleven total rushing TDs and over 100 rushing yards in each contest. I expect the onslaught to continue on Senior Day against a pitiful Rutgers rushing defense, that has been torched by top RBs. Tevin Coleman ran for 307 yards, Ameer Abdullah ran for 225 yards and three TDs, and both Wisconsin RBs went over 100 yards. The Rutgers secondary is not good, and their pass defense ranking would be a lot lower if it weren’t for their pitiful run defense (teams are just choosing to run at them). Lippett (51/999/6) has had two quiet weeks, but has otherwise put up 100 yards and a TD regularly. MSU should have success on the ground and then Lippett should get loose off of play action. Due to his last two weeks, he has a very reasonable tag. At TE, Josiah Price doesn’t get a ton of looks, but can give you a TD every now and then.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Jeremy Langford (Michigan State RB), Tony Lippett (Michigan State WR)
Yellow Lights: – Connor Cook (Michigan State QB), Josiah Price (Michigan State TE)
Red Lights: – Entire Rutgers offense
Indiana at Ohio State (-34.5, 65.5)
Rushing Defense: IU – 79th (174 YPG, 4.61 YPC), OSU – 30th (135 YPG, 3.75 YPC)
Passing Defense: IU – 101st (259 YPG), OSU – 18th (189 YPG)
Indiana’s backup QB is awful so OSU should be able to stack the box against Tevin Coleman. He had a huge week against the previously discussed terrible Rutgers rush defense, but has otherwise been held in check since Indiana lost their QB, Nate Sudfeld.
If you’re spending at QB, it’s a tough decision between JT Barrett and Marcus Mariota. They both have incredible matchups and are options 1A and 1B at the QB spot. On FD Barrett is cheaper, and on DK Mariota is cheaper, so a good way to get exposure would be just too roll with JT on FD and Mariota on DK. Ohio State’s team total is 50 points, and I don’t expect them to let off the gas as they are sitting are currently sitting 6th in the playoff race and need style points. He looks fully recovered from his knee injury as he has topped 40 FD in his last two games, against much tougher competition. Barrett dominates the red zone touches as he already has 38 total TDs on the year, so five to six 6 TDs is in play here. I think the OSU RB, Ezekiel Elliot, makes for a nice GPP play. There should be a lot of traffic on JT Barrett, so if this is one of the games where Ohio State takes a little off his plate and gives it to Elliot then you’ll be in a great spot. He has a very nice price tag at sub 7k on both sites, and with OSU predicted to score seven TDs, he could get you 100 yards and two TDs. The Ohio State WRs are also in great spot against IU’s poor pass defense, but it’s tough to peg who to target between Michael Thomas (35/583/8) and Devin Smith (22/564/8). They’re cheap on both DK and FD, and both have scored a TD in each of the past two games.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – J.T. Barrett (Ohio State QB), Ezekiel Elliot (Ohio State RB)
Yellow Lights: – Michael Thomas and Devin Smith (Ohio State WR)
Red Lights: – Entire Indiana offense
Northwestern at Purdue (+1.5, 49.5)
Rushing Defense: NW – 71st (169 YPG, 4.20 YPC), Purdue – 87th (183 YPG, 4.56 YPC)
Passing Defense: NW – 52nd (217 YPG), Purdue – 84th (239 YPG)
This game features two mediocre defenses, but also two unappealing offenses. I’m not really interested in either QB. However, it is worth noting that Northwestern QB, Trevor Siemian, has attempted 48 and 49 passes the past two weeks. That’s a lot of volume for a cheap QB, but he hasn’t turned that volume into consistent production yet. However, he did have 22 FD points against Notre Dame last week. The two players worth the closest look here are the RBs: Akeem Hunt and Justin Jackson. With this game projected to stay close, the teams should be able to stick with their run games. The only passing game option for NW in play is TE, Dan Vitale. He makes for a solid punt at 3.1k against Purdue’s poor pass defense.
Purdue lost their top WR, Danny Anthrop, to a season ending knee injury so Hunt is now also their top WR. He has at least five receptions in each of the last three games, which makes him a nice play on DK. He was limited to only 9 carries against a top Wisconsin rush defense, but averaged 20 carries per game over the previous four games. He’ll be a guy who is one or two percent owned and has put up big games against Michigan State and Illinois. He’s definitely not a cash game play and is a guy who you throw on 1 GPP team if you’re running 10 or more lineups. The better option is Justin Jackson, who is cheap at 6k on FD. He gets a nice matchup with Purdue’s bad run defense, and gets around 25 carries per game. Last week, he had 149 rushing yards and a TD against Notre Dame. He makes for a nice RB2 on FD that has the potential to give you 100 yards and two TDs.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Justin Jackson (NW RB), Dan Vitale (NW TE)
Yellow Lights: – Akeem Hunt (Purdue RB), Trevor Siemian (Northwestern QB)
Red Lights: – Rest of the NW and Purdue offenses
Penn State at Illinois (+6.5, 44)
Rushing Defense: Penn State – 1st (83 YPG, 2.53 YPC), Illinois – 121st (267 YPG, 5.33 YPC)
Passing Defense: Penn State – 16th (183 YPG), Illinois – 64th (227 YPG)
Penn State has been really good on defense so I’d avoid the Illinois offense. The Penn State has been a completely different story. They’ve been so bad that I’m struggling to find anyone worth rostering against an awful Illinois pass defense. I swore of Christian Hackenberg a few weeks ago, but FD is making you at least think about him at minimum price. If you just want to punt the position, I could see the argument for him, but he’s just been so bad that you are probably better off going with OU’s Cody Thomas at $4,900, who at least provides some rushing yards, as a QB punt. The only way I’d roster him is if you have a ton of entries. Due to Hackenberg’s awful play, Penn State has limited his passing attempts in recent weeks, as he has attempted only 26 and 29 passes, and focused on the running game. Illinois is awful against the run so I expect Penn State to run the ball often, the problem is that they are splitting carries with Bill Belton and Akeel Lynch. Over the past two weeks, Lynch has 31 total carries, while Belton has 35 carries. They are both really cheap so if you can target the right one then he should pay off his salary. If you’re looking at a Penn State WR, then the best option would be Daesean Hamilton (68/787/1), but he has been a victim of Hackenberg’s poor play in recent weeks. The play I like more than Hamilton is Jesse James at TE. He’s a punt option at 3k and gives you some exposure to the terrible Illinois defense without wasting one of your valuable skill positions slots. Overall, I know the matchup with Illinois is enticing, but don’t overdo it trying to find value here. With a low total of 44, Vegas is telling us to expect a low scoring game, despite the terrible Illinois defense.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Jesse James (PSU TE)
Yellow Lights: – Akeel Lynch/Bill Belton (Penn State RB), Daesean Hamilton (Penn State WR)
Red Lights: – Illinois offense
Minnesota at Nebraska (-10.5, 56.5)
Rushing Defense: Minn. – 53rd (153 YPG, 4.40 YPC), Nebraska – 73rd (170 YPG, 4.83 YPC)
Passing Defense: Minn. – 25th (198 YPG), Nebraska – 28th (199 YPG)
Prior to last week, Nebraska had the 20th ranked rush defense… that’s what a matchup with Melvin Gordon will do to your rush defense stats. David Cobb gets a ton of volume for Minnesota and makes a solid play. I’d personally prefer to pay a little more for one of the top four RB or drop down to 8k for Foster or Ameer, but I don’t hate the play, as sheer volume could lead to 150 rushing yards and two TDs. The only Minnesota passing game option in play is their TE Maxx Williams, who is one of the best TEs in the country.
I’m not quite sure what to do with Ameer Abdullah this week. He was injured early in the Purdue game, and didn’t look like himself last week against Wisconsin. Also, Bo Pelini was quoted as saying that he doesn’t know if Ameer will be 100% the rest of the year. However, his price has plummeted and Wisconsin does have a great run defense. If he’s fully healthy, which I doubt, you are getting a steal at his current price. Just based on his price, I think he’s in play on a few GPP teams, but I wouldn’t make him a core play due to the uncertainty of his health. Outside of Ameer, I’m not too interested in anyone else on Nebraska as Tommy Armstrong is too expensive on FD, and they are a run first team.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – David Cobb (Minnesota RB), Maxx Williams (Minnesota TE), Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska RB – GPP only)
Yellow Lights: – None
Red Lights: – Minnesota and Nebraska QB and WR
Kansas at Oklahoma (-25, 53)
Rushing Defense: KU – 85th (181 YPG, 4.87 YPC), OU – 14th (118 YPG, 3.34 YPC)
Passing Defense: KU – 100th (257 YPG), OU – 118th (292 YPG)
Trevor Knight is out for the 2nd week in a row so Cody Thomas will get another start. In real life performance, he was pretty bad last week as he only completed 50% of his passes and threw three interceptions. However, in terms of fantasy, he was really solid as he ran for over 100 yards and had 22 FD points, which is 4x value. If you’re looking to punt the QB position and hope for 20 points then he is worth a look against a bad KU defense. OU is expected to score around 40 points so as long as the OU running game doesn’t steal all of the TDs, he could hit 20 FD points again. Speaking of the OU running game, I thought that an OU running back would go off last week, but unfortunately I choose the wrong OU RB. The guy to own was Samaje Perine and not Keith Ford, as Perine had 25 for 213 yards and three TDs. Meanwhile, Ford only had 8 carries. If the RB split plays out as last week, then Perine makes for a great play against a bad KU run defense. OU’s leading WR, Sterling Shepard, is listed as questionable so you’ll have to monitor that situation up to kickoff. With Cody Thomas getting the start, I’d downgrade Shephard even if he does play. Duron Neal was Thomas’ favorite target last week with four receptions for 59 yards and a TD and is an option as a cheap WR3 at $4,500 on FD, if Shepard is out.
The KU offense has been bad the entire year, but has been playing better with Michael Cummings at QB. However, with KU only predicted to score 14 points, I’d avoid the KU offense except for Jimmay Mundine, who is one the best TEs in the early slate. Mundine is KU’s number one WR and has 75 or more yards receiving in four of his last five games. KU should be trailing and throwing the ball and the OU defense has been terrible against the pass so Mundine is the top guy at TE, along with EJ Bibbs.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Samaje Perine (OU RB), Jimmay Mundine (KU TE),Cody Thomas (OU QB – GPP only)
Yellow Lights: – Durron Neal (OU WR – if Shephard out)
Red Lights: – Rest of KU offense
Marshall at UAB (+20, 68)
Rushing Defense: Marshall – 40th (142 YPG, 3.51 YPC), UAB – 83rd (177 YPG, 4.36 YPC)
Passing Defense: Marshall – 9th (180 YPG), UAB – 60th (223 YPG)
UAB has a very good RB in Jordan Howard, however, Marshall has been very good on defense so he, along with the rest of the UAB offense, is not in play for me this week.
Rakeem Cato has been better the past two weeks, however, he is still too expensive for my taste on FD at 9.2k. Marshall is now a run first team, and with guys like Shane Carden, Marcus Mariota and J. T. Barrett at similar price points, it’s tough to take Cato. Devon Johnson returned to the lineup last week and looked fully healthy rushing for 199 yards and a TD on 29 carries against a solid Rice run defense. Johnson is a TD machine and should score multiple times against an overmatched UAB defense. Tommy Shuler is another WR who has been a massive disappointment this year. However, he’s started showing some signs of life the past two weeks. His numbers remind me of Jamison Crowder earlier this year, just prior to Crowder busting out against Pitt. Overall I don’t mind Shuler as a speculative cheap GPP play based on his big games last year, and his better play of late. At TE, Marshall has two TEs who are in play: Eric Frohnapfel and Deon-tay McManus.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Devon Johnson (Marshall RB)
Yellow Lights: – Rakeem Cato (Marshall QB), Tommy Shuler (Marshall WR), Eric Frohnapfel/Deon-tay McManus (Marshall TEs)
Red Lights: – Entire UAB offense
SMU at UCF (-28, 47)
Rushing Defense: SMU – 114th (229 YPG, 5.25 YPC), UCF – 17th (120 YPG, 3.50 YPC)
Passing Defense: SMU – 121st (299 YPG), UCF – 7th (176 YPG)
Matt Davis has produced a small spark in the SMU offense and provides a running threat. However, UCF is by the far the best defense he has faced so it’s a situation I’ll be avoiding.
Don’t let last week’s awful QB play of South Florida scare you away from the UCF passing game. The USF offense has been awful the entire year, and SMU is still really exploitable on defense. Justin Holman is really cheap on DK and makes for a great play there, and his price is ok on FD at 7.1k. I think Holman is in a similar position to that of Tulsa’s Dane Evans, when Evans faced SMU two weeks ago. Like Evans, Holman is a pretty average QB, who is throwing to a pretty talented WR corp. Evans put up 31 DK points against SMU, and I think you can book Holman for 300 passing yards and three TDs. William Stanback would make for a solid RB2, however, he left his last game early so you need to double check that he is playing. If he is out, then Dontravious Wilson would probably pick up his carries. Breshad Perriman is UCF’s top WR, and has scored in four straight games. He’s cheap across the industry and makes for a nice play. However, UCF will spread it around as they have a very talented WR corp in JJ Worton (34/450/4) and Josh Reese (20/348/3), and Rannell Hall (28/299). Hall is pretty interesting as he has missed three games with injury, including the last two. However, he has put up a solid games in four of the six games he has played in, and actually led USF in receiving last year. If he returns from his injury, he could be worth a GPP dart throw.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Justin Holman (UCF QB), Breshad Perriman (UCF WR)
Yellow Lights: – William Stanback (UCF RB – check health), Rannell Hall/JJ Worton (UCF WR)
Red Lights: – Entire SMU offense
Washington State at Arizona State (-16, 68.5)
Rushing Defense: Wash. St. – 44th (146 YPG, 4.10 YPC), ASU – 78th (174 YPG, 4.27 YPC)
Passing Defense: Wash. St. – 122nd (308 YPG), ASU – 74th (233 YPG)
This game has some shoot out potential as Washington State has a great passing attack, but a terrible defense, and Arizona State has a great offense and average defense. Luke Falk hasn’t missed a beat since taking over for an injured Connor Halliday as he is averaging 400 passing YPG and has thrown for seven TDs in two games. Even with the QB change, Vince Mayle has continued to put up big numbers and is one of the better WR options if you are spending. River Cracraft is expected to return this week, however, there are some reports that he will split reps with Tyler Baker so I’d probably hold off on plugging him in.
In this matchup last year, Taylor Kelly had seven total TDs, 275 yards passing and five TDs and 66 yards rushing and two TDs. I like him as a GPP play, as he his starting to round into form following his injury, and most people have forgotten how good he was last year. One of the bigger injuries to monitor is going to be Jaelen Strong’s playing status as he suffered a concussion last week and is listed as 50/50 to play. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sat this one out as ASU has a huge game against rival Arizona the very next Friday. If Strong is cleared to play then he makes for a nice play. I think DJ Foster makes for a nice play whether Strong plays or not, but he gets a boost if Strong is out. With Taylor Kelly back in the mix at QB, Foster is back to contributing in the running and passing game. Last week, he caught eight balls for 65 yards and a TD. Foster is a great pass catching RB, and if Strong is out, then Foster would actually be ASU’s leading WR. I think you would see ASU increase his touches in the passing game, and get Demario Richard, the backup RB, more involved in the running game. I think 150 yards of total offense with seven to eight catches and a TD or two is a good bet on Saturday. Last year, he split time with Marion Grice, and still had seven receptions for 77 yards and two TDs in this matchup. If Strong is out, I think a stack of Taylor Kelly and DJ Foster makes for a great GPP play as most people avoid stacking QBs and RBs. However, Foster isn’t your typical RB, and Kelly should look his way in the passing game often. At WR, if Strong is out, the only one I’d be a little interest is Cameron Smith, who is their third leading WR, behind Strong and Foster.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Luke Falk (Washington State QB), Vince Mayle (Washington State WR), D.J. Foster (ASU RB), Taylor Kelly (ASU QB)
Yellow Lights: – Jaelen Strong (ASU WR – bump to green if healthy), Demario Richard (ASU RB), River Cracraft/Isiah Myers/Tyler Baker (Washington State WRs), Cameron Smith (Arizona State WR)
Red Lights: – Washington State RBs
Boston College at Florida State (-19, 56.5)
Rushing Defense: BC – 4th (97 YPG, 3.09 YPC), FSU – 36th (140 YPG, 3.63 YPC)
Passing Defense: BC – 65th (227 YPG), FSU – 93rd (246 YPG)
Jameis Winston has a nice price on DK, but is too expensive on FD. The matchup up is pretty solid and he should throw for 300 yards and three TDs here. The FSU RB situation is a mess right now as they aren’t running the ball a ton and they are splitting carries between Cook, Williams and Pender. Cook looks to have taken the job, but only had seven carries last game. It’s best to avoid the situation against BC’s 4th ranked rush defense. My favorite play from FSU would be Rashad Greene. He disappointed last week, but is a great talent and has a very manageable price. Last year he had four receptions for 90 yards and two TDs. The other FSU passing game option to look at is Nick O’Leary, who is one of Jameis’ favorite targets.
FSU is vulnerable to the pass, however, BC is a very run heavy team and has a really bad passing game so they probably can’t take advantage. Tyler Murphy, their QB, is a running QB, and is priced too high for the matchup. Jon Hilliman is the top RB, but overall, I think there are better spots than targeting the BC offense.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Rashad Greene (FSU WR), Jameis Winston (FSU QB – DK price), Nick O’Leary (FSU TE)
Yellow Lights: – Jameis Winston (FSU QB – FD price)
Red Lights: – FSU RBs, BC offense
Maryland at Michigan (-5, 42)
Rushing Defense: Maryland – 97th (198 YPG, 4.32 YPC), Michigan – 7th (103 YPG, 2.82 YPC)
Passing Defense: Maryland – 83rd (239 YPG), Michigan – 24th (198 YPG)
With the low Vegas total, I’ll probably be fading this game completely. Michigan is solid defensively so that takes Maryland out of the equation for me. CJ Brown, the Maryland QB, has had big games in the past and is a great athlete. However, he’s been banged up this year and is running less, which takes away from his appeal, as he is a very suspect passer.
Maryland is weak defensively, but Michigan is so brutal offensively that no one jumps out. I guess you could take a GPP stab at Devin Funchess or Deveon Smith. However, I don’t trust the Michigan QBs to get Funchess the ball, and Drake Johnson could vulture some carries from Smith.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – None
Yellow Lights: – Devin Funchess (Michigan WR)
Red Lights: – entire game
Louisville at Notre Dame (-3.5, 53)
Rushing Defense: Louisville – 2nd (87 YPG, 2.80 YPC), ND – 51st (151 YPG, 3.92 YPC)
Passing Defense: Louisville – 27th (198 YPG), ND – 73rd (233 YPG)
Everett Golson injured his shoulder last game and is listed as probable this week. With a banged up shoulder and a tough Louisville defense, I wouldn’t spend on Golson this week. Golson is the primary cog for Notre Dame’s offense so I’d probably just avoid ND in general as there are better defenses to target.
Louisville QB, Will Gardner, was injured last game and will miss the rest of the year. Reggie Bonnafon will get the start and played well in relief last week. He’s cheap at 5K on FD, but he struggled in his earlier starts this year against Wake Forest and Syracuse. I’m not sold on him and would prefer Cody Thomas’ matchup with KU for a QB punt. It looked like Michael Dyer had emerged as the top for Louisville but last week was back to RBBC so it’s a situation to avoid. I love DeVante Parker’s talents but I’d feel better about using him if Gardner was still at QB. He’s probably good enough to play regardless, and has at least 132 receiving yards in every game since returning from injury.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Devante Parker (Louisville WR)
Yellow Lights: – Everett Golson (ND QB)
Red Lights: – Louisville and ND RBs
Syracuse at Pittsburgh (-7.5, 49)
Rushing Defense: Syracuse – 24th (127 YPG, 3.25 YPC), Pitt – 67th (165 YPG, 4.48 YPC)
Passing Defense: Syracuse – 51st (217 YPG), Pitt – 17th (187 YPG)
Syracuse’s top two QBs have been hurt, but it looks like AJ Long, the 2nd string QB, should return on Saturday. I don’t think it makes a difference as Syracuse is bad offensively and it would be best to just avoid their offense.
For Pitt, it’s the usual suspects in James Conner and Tyler Boyd. Conner has over 200 rushing yards in two straight games and has scored multiple TDs in four straight. Syracuse hasn’t faced a RB even close to Conner, so don’t be afraid to roll him out there again. Tyler Boyd has been over 100 yards in three straight games and should continue to take advantage of the attention paid to the Pitt running game.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – James Conner (Pitt RB), Tyler Boyd (Pitt WR)
Yellow Lights: – None
Red Lights: – Syracuse offense
Mississippi at Arkansas (+3.5, 45.5)
Rushing Defense: Ole Miss – 25th (128 YPG, 3.43 YPC), Arkansas – 22nd (3.76 YPC, 127 YPG)
Passing Defense: Ole Miss – 14th (182 YPG), Arkansas – 43rd (214 YPG)
As evidenced by the low Vegas total, this is a matchup of two very good defenses so I would avoid this game for the most part. I’m taking a small look at the Ole Miss passing game, as there should be opportunities for other’s to step up, as Laquon Treadwell is out for the year. I think Evan Engram could get some extra targets at TE, so he is a solid play at a tough position to fill. The other possible GPP play would be Vince Sanders from Ole Miss. Due to Laquon Treadwell’s injury, he should step into the number one WR role and is minimum price on FD. In the first game without Treadwell, albeit against Presbyterian, Sanders led Ole Miss with four receptions, 110 yards and two TDs.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Evan Engram (Ole Miss TE)
Yellow Lights: – Vince Sanders (Ole Miss WR)
Red Lights: – Entire Game
Wisconsin at Iowa (+9.5, 51.5)
Rushing Defense: Wisconsin – 5th (97 YPG, 2.85 YPC), Iowa- 46th (148 YPG, 3.98 YPC)
Passing Defense: Wisconsin – 3rd (147 YPG), Iowa – 8th (177 YPG)
Wisconsin has been a very good defensive team this year so I’d avoid the entire Iowa offense. With regards to Wisconsin, that Melvin Gordon guy is pretty good at football and is matchup proof. Iowa’s rushing defense numbers are solid but as I learned with Nebraska’s rush defense, that doesn’t really matter with Gordon. Also, Iowa has struggled against good running teams as Minnesota ran 291 yards (4.9 YPC), and James Conner ran for 155 yards and a TD. The only question with Gordon is what kind of team you can build around him with his price tag, as he is tough to fit on DK. However, his price is manageable on FD at 10.8k. Wisconsin uses two QBs and the only passing game option I would consider would be their TE, Sam Arneson.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin RB)
Yellow Lights: – Sam Arneson (Wisconsin TE)
Red Lights: – Everyone except Melvin Gordon
Texas Tech at Iowa State (-1.5, 69.5)
Rushing Defense: TTU – 120th (259 YPG, 5.19 YPC), ISU – 118th (244 YPG, 5.43 YPC)
Passing Defense: TTU – 92nd (244 YPG), ISU – 96th (250 YPG)
You’ll need to check the weather, but this looks like a solid game to target due to its high Vegas total and close spread. Texas Tech has been atrocious defensively this year and is claiming that their former DC, who was fired finally the Arkansas game, has been giving away their defensive signals. I don’t know whether that’s true or not, but I really don’t care, and it doesn’t scare me off of Iowa State. The Tech defense was terrible prior to their signals being given out, and is just a very bad defense. Sam Richardson is expected to return this week, after missing the KU game with an injured shoulder. He’s not very flashy and his salary isn’t cheap at 7.7k on FD, so I don’t expect him to be highly owned. I think that makes him a great GPP play against a bad defense. He’s flashed upside this year as he had 30+ FD points against Baylor, Texas and Toledo. My main concerns with him are: what is the weather like, and will ISU limit his running due to his shoulder. If ISU does limit his running plays, then you can give a bump to ISU RB, Aaron Wimberly. He’s cheap at $4,600 and facing one of the worst defenses, but typically doesn’t see more than 15 carries. At WR, the top targets are D’Vario Montgomery and Allen Lazard. Lazard is a really talented freshman WR (top 50 recruit in the nation) and is starting to come alive. I’d rather use him at $4,800 than pay the extra $900 for Montgomery. At TE, EJ Bibbs is right there with Jimmay Mundine in my opinion. He has six TDs in the last five weeks, including a couple two touchdown games, which can be a GPP game changer from the TE position.
Tech should put up points here, but it’s tough to determine who to target as their QB position is up in the air. Patrick Mahomes started last game, as Davis Webb’s ankle was said to not quite be 100%, and Mahomes had a good game against OU. Kingsbury said they will see how they practice, and then pick a starter at kickoff… which is not helpful to us at all because this game doesn’t kick until 2:30. If word leaks out as to the starter, they would be in play for GPPs. I think who gets the start at QB also affects who is in play at WR for Tech. Jakeem Grant is Tech’s leading WR and is cheap at $5,600. However, Mahomes really spread the ball around last week. I’d feel very good about rolling Grant out there if Webb was the starter, but less so if it is Mahomes. The Tech RB, DeAndre Washington, is a GPP only play, at best, as his carries really fluctuate. It’s a nice matchup, but you’re not sure if you’re going to get 20 carries out of him or 10.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Sam Richardson (Iowa State QB – GPP), EJ Bibbs (Iowa State TE)
Yellow Lights: – Aaron Wimberly (Iowa State RB), Allen Lazard (Iowa State WR), Patrick Mahomes/Davis Webb (Texas Tech QB- bump to green if starter named prior to lineup lock), Jakeem Grant (Texas Tech WR – bump to green if Webb starts), DeAndre Washington (Texas Tech RB)
Red Lights: – None
Arizona at Utah (-4, 54)
Rushing Defense: Arizona – 56th (159 YPG, 3.90 YPC), Utah – 48th (148 YPG, 3.63 YPC)
Passing Defense: Arizona – 117th (286 YPG), Utah – 87th (240 YPG)
The Vegas total for this one is a lot lower than the totals we have seen for Arizona in recent weeks. That is partly due to a solid Utah defense, but also due to the fact that Arizona has been struggling offensively recently. Anu Solomon, the Arizona QB, has been terrific for the majority of the year, but has struggled in two of his last three games. With his recent struggles combined with his price and the fact that Utah can really get after the quarterback (they are first nationally in sacks), I think there are better plays at QB. However, when Utah doesn’t get to the QB, they have given up some big plays as evidenced by their 87th ranked passing defense. Based on that, Solomon and his WRs are boom or bust kind of plays, and GPP only for me. Solomon’s struggles have also affected Cayleb Jones as he has been quiet the past few weeks. The good news is that his price has dropped to 5.7k. I don’t mind him at all for GPPs due to the upside he displayed earlier this year, but would look elsewhere for 50/50s. Whether you can roster an Arizona RB will depend entirely on the status of Terris Jones-Grigsby, who is currently listed as questionable. If he plays, then I’d avoid the Arizona RBs. However, if he is out, then Nick Wilson becomes a very viable play at only 6.6k. With Jones-Grigsby out last week, Wilson carried the ball 30 times for 104 yards and two TDs.
I think Travis Wilson is in play as a cheap QB option on DF and FD. He was splitting time with Kendal Thompson, but Thompson is now out for the year so Wilson will get all of the snaps. He gives you some dual threat ability from the QB spot, and had 22 FD points against a stingy Stanford defense last week. Arizona’s defense is not on Stanford’s level, particularly in the secondary. Devontae Booker is the workhorse for Utah, and his price has dropped to 7.3k. He’s not getting much love, but Utah is finding ways to get the ball into his hands at least 25 times a game. Recently, he’s been much more involved in the passing game with 17 receptions over his last two games. Stanford shut him down last week, but they shut down 95% of rushing attacks. Prior to that game, he had at least 22 FD points in five of his six previous starts. At WR, Utah is trying to replace their top WR, Dres Anderson. So far it looks like Kenneth Scott and Kaelin Clay are the beneficiaries. With Arizona’s struggles in the secondary, they are in play as GPP WR3, but I wouldn’t use either in 50/50’s.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Travis Wilson (Utah QB), Devontae Booker (Utah RB), Nick Wilson (Arizona RB – downgrade to red if Terris Jones-Grigsby plays)
Yellow Lights: – Devontae Booker (Utah RB), Cayleb Jones (Arizona WR), Anu Solomon (Arizona QB), Kaelin Clay/Kenneth Scott (Utah WR)
Red Lights: –
Tulane at East Carolina (-18, 56.5)
Rushing Defense: Tulane – 69th (166 YPG, 4.33 YPC), ECU – 6th (103 YPG, 3.28 YPC)
Passing Defense: Tulane – 46th (215 YPG), ECU – 103rd (264 YPG)
Tulane has a team total below 20 and has been a bad offense team this year as they are 122nd in points scored (18.3 PPG). I wouldn’t get cute and use any Tulane offensive players.
Tulane’s passing defense looks solid, but they haven’t faced anyone of the caliber of Shane Carden and Justin Hardy. In Week 1, Tulsa’s Dane Evans threw for 438 yards and four TDs, and Keevan Lucas had 13 receptions for 233 yards and three TDs. Carden and Hardy are definitely in play here and make for a great GPP QB/WR handcuff. Carden has routinely thrown for 400+ yards in a game, and should approach that mark this week. With four more receptions, Justin Hardy (80/1,002/7) will break the NCAA career receptions mark held by Ryan Broyles. He should get that and much more on Saturday, and is the top WR if you can afford him. ECU’s 2nd and 3rd WRs, Cam Worthy (31/633/2) and Isaiah Jones (61/602/4), seem to alternate big days and are tough to peg. ECU’s RB, Breon Allen, has had a few big days, but has more than 15 carries in a game only twice this year.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Shane Carden (ECU QB), Justin Hardy (ECU WR)
Yellow Lights: – Cam Worthy/Isaiah Jones (ECU WR), Breon Allen (ECU RB)
Red Lights: – Tulane offense
Stanford at California (+5.5, 56)
Rushing Defense: Stanford – 9th (106 YPG, 3.00 YPC), Cal – 41st (142 YPG, 4.07 YPC)
Passing Defense: Stanford – 6th (142 YPG), Cal – 125th (376 YPG)
Whenever I see Stanford on the slate, I pretty much just avoid their opponent as they have a great defense and slow the pace of the game. So I’d go ahead and cross Cal players off your list.
As far as Stanford goes, avoid their RBs as they are RBBC. However, it’s a prime time matchup for the Stanford passing game as Cal is dead last in pass defense. I’d rather target the Stanford WR than their QB, Kevin Hogan, as his ceiling is limited. The two guys at WR to know are Ty Montgomery (60/590/3) and Devon Cajuste (25/409/3). I’ve been waiting on that big game from Montgomery, but it just hasn’t come this year. However, this looks like it could be the week that he breaks out. Montgomery went wild against Cal last year with five receptions for 160 yards and four TDs, and added a rushing TD. Cal gives up a ton of big plays through the air and Montgomery is very explosive, so I think we finally see Montgomery’s break out game. Cal’s 2nd WR is Devon Cajuste. He’s a big kid at 6’4 and 230 pounds, and is a nice red zone target. He’s minimum price on FD and is in play if you need to punt your WR3.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Ty Montgomery (Stanford WR)
Yellow Lights: – Devon Cajuste (Stanford WR), Kevin Hogan (Stanford QB)
Red Lights: – Entire California offense, Stanford running game
Colorado at Oregon (-32.5, 72.5)
Rushing Defense: Colorado – 104th (207 YPG, 5.72 YPC), Oregon – 62nd (163 YPG, 4.17 YPC)
Passing Defense: Colorado – 90th (243 YPG), Oregon – 120th (294 YPG)
It’s a very tough decision between Mariota and Barrett this week. Both have a ton of upside and if you have multiple entries then I’d use them both. Last year, Oregon destroyed Colorado 57-16 in Boulder as Mariota threw for 355 yards and five TDs and ran for 43 yards and two TDs. Oregon’s team total is 52 points and they should hit that with ease against Colorado’s porous defense. This game should get out of hand, so Mariota probably only sees three quarters of action, but that is more than enough to do his damage. Four hundred yards of total offense and four TDs are easily in play, and as we saw last year six or even seven TDs is his ceiling.
The top Oregon RB, Royce Freeman, is in a similar position to Ezekiel Elliot of Ohio State. Both players’ teams should get lots of red zone opportunities, but their QBs dominate the touches. I think he makes for a nice GPP play, simply due to his red zone opportunities, and maybe this is the game Mariota doesn’t hog all of the TDs. The other troubling aspect with Freeman is that Thomas Tyner is healthy again and taking 10 to 12 carries a game now. Earlier in the year Freeman was getting more carries but fell back to 15 last week. Oregon’s WR are tough to nail down. Byron Marshall is a former RB that they have moved to the slot. He gets the most looks in the passing games, but hasn’t turned them into TDs. Devon Allen is a track star turned football player, and broke a lot of big plays in the beginning of the year. However, he hasn’t scored since October 2nd and only catches around two passes per game. I think he makes an interesting GPP punt, as Colorado lacks the speed to deal with him so maybe he turns his limited touches into TDs, which was the case at the beginning of the year. Dwayne Stanford has emerged recently as Mariota’s favorite red zone option with five TDs in his last four games. Oregon’s top TE, Pharaoh Brown, was one of Mariota’s favorite red zone targets, but he was injured last game and is out for the year. I think the WRs get the bump in this situation, and Stanford should continue to see red zone looks. Johnny Mundt and Evan Bayliss look to be the guys at TE to replace Brown. Bayliss is said to be the better blocker, while Mundt is the better pass catcher. Mundt blew up for 121 yards and two TDs in a game last year, but has done nothing since. I was expecting to see him at 3k, but he’s at 3.6k which is a little high.
The only Colorado player I’m interested in is Nelson Spruce. His price is only 7.6k and he has had some monster games this year. Game flow also sets up in his favor in this one, as Colorado should get smoked and he should pile up garbage time points. The one worry I have with him, and I’m not sure how worried I should be yet, is the Colorado QB situation. The Colorado QB, Sefo Liufau, suffered a concussion last game, and is questionable. Even if he suits up, the Colorado coaches have already said that backup, Jordan Gehrke, will see time regardless. Gehrke is supposedly more of a runner than Sefo, and was 0-5 last game in passes attempted. Hopefully Sefo take the majority of the snaps, as Gehrke’s ability to get the ball to Spruce worries me a little.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Marcus Mariota (Oregon QB), Royce Freeman (Oregon RB), Nelson Spruce (CU WR)
Yellow Lights: – Devon Allen/Byron Marshall/Dwayne Stanford (Oregon WR)
Red Lights: – Rest of CU offense
Late Slate Picks
Quarterback
There’s not many value plays that jump out at QB so it looks like a spend position to me. The only cheaper option I potentially see is Sean Mannion, who has been playing better. Dak Prescott, Bryce Petty and Cody Fajardo are head and shoulders above everyone else to me.
Also Target – Bryce Petty, Cody Fajardo, Dak Prescott, Sean Mannion, Jaquez Johnson (only available on FD)
Running Back
If you’re spending then Jay Ajayi is the clear cut top back and should be another two to three TD game. Marteze Waller is questionable for Fresno State and if he is out then Josh Quezada would make a really nice value play.
Also Target – Jay Ajayi, Javorious Allen, Josh Quezada (if Waller out), Don Jackson, Josh Robinson (great price on FD), Shock Linwood, Joey Iosefa, Storm Woods
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver is probably where I would save in the late slate. I don’t mind Coleman and Agholor, but they are pricey and I’d rather spend at QB or RB. I think at some point the production between Coleman and Goodley evens out so I’ll take the discount with Goodley.
Also Target – Antwan Goodley, Victor Bolden, Jordan Villamin, Devante Davis (cheap on DK), Geremy Davis (GPP play), Shane Williams-Rhodes, Thomas Sperbeck, Lucky Whithead (only available on FD and way too cheap), Nevada WR – Jerico Richardson/Richy Turner (GPP), Bud Sasser, De’Runnya Wilson, Jameon Lewis
Tight End
Clive Walford, Malcolm Johnson, Steven Scheu, Jarred Gipson, Alex Deleon, Connor Hamlett
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general.
If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!