CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 14
Welcome to Week 14’s edition of CFB “Traffic Lights” plays. I am going to break things down by the Saturday early game slate and the late game slate. The early slates are practically identical. except that DK has included Cincinnati/Temple and UCONN/Memphis. The late slate is identical, except that FD has included Middle Tennessee State and UTEP.
This week I am going to skip the analysis of particular games, and just get straight to the green lights at each position.
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Early Slate – FD & DK
Quarterbacks
Marquise Williams (UNC) – Williams is the highest priced QB on the board on both FD and DK, and deservedly so. This game has the third highest Vegas total of the early slate, and UNC is predicted to score 39 points. North Carolina State is 91st in rush defense, allowing 189 YPC and 4.47 YPC, but has been solid against the pass (28th nationally). This is a rivalry game and the trash talk has already begun, as the North Carolina State starting safety called Williams soft. UNC is already using that as motivation for this one. Marquise gets a ton of work in the running game and has seven rush TDs in the past three games. He should take advantage of NC State’s porous run defense and also throw for over 200 yards once again.
Bryce Petty (Baylor) – This game features by far the highest Vegas total of the early slate, and one of the highest of year, at 79.5, with Baylor favored by 24.5. With Vegas predicting Baylor to score around 52 points, Petty deserves a long look. Texas Tech is brutal defensively and doesn’t appear to have any prayer of slowing Baylor down. Tech is 121st in rush defense, and 93rd in pass defense so the question isn’t if touchdowns will be raining down on them, but rather will they come via the pass or the run. Petty’s numbers have been down lately as they have been blowing teams out, and they dealt with bad weather last weekend. As a result, he uncharacteristically hasn’t topped 30 pass attempts in two of his last three games. However, this game will be AT&T Stadium, formerly Cowboy Stadium, so weather won’t be a factor. Also, Tech is potent enough offensively to stay within two to three TDs so that Baylor will keep on scoring. There is some risk that Baylor just rips Tech on the ground, and Petty gets another light workload, so he doesn’t have the floor of Williams or Barrett. However, he is a slight discount from Williams and Barrett this week, and has the highest ceiling of the three due to his matchup. In a GPP, I think Petty is the top option at QB. He had a huge game in this matchup last with 335 passing yards and three TDs, and also rushed for two TDs.
Jake Waters (Kansas State) – On FD I’d pay the extra $600 to grab Petty, but he has a nice price on DK. He’s coming off of a game where he threw for 400 yards, but I’m writing him up here for his running ability. He’s been banged up with a right shoulder injury so he had been running less. However, it looks the bye week helped him as he looked healthy against West Virginia and topped double digit carries for the first time in four games. Kansas is fresh off of coughing up a NCAA record rushing day to Samaje Perine, and KSU should run all over them. The Kansas defense is just flat terrible as they are 105th against the run (211 YPG and 5.44 YPC) and 85th against the pass (238 YPG). This is a rivalry game and senior day for Jake Waters, so KSU should be ready. This looks like a 200 yards passing, 100 yard rushing with multiple TDs type of day for Jake.
Christian Stewart (BYU) – Vegas is expecting a shootout here with a total of 72 and California favored by only 4.5 points. Stewart has been really solid since taking over for Taysom Hill and gets the Cal passing defense, which is dead last in the country allowing 361 passing YPG. Amazingly, Cal allows 60 more passing yards per game than the next crappiest pass defense. Stewart only attempted 17 passes last week in a blowout non-conference win, but should be back to chucking it 35 to 40 times minimum. He’s sub 8k on both sites and makes for a nice mid-range play if you can’t pay top dollar at QB. He should hit 300 passing yards and three TDs fairly easily.
Joshua Dobbs (Tennessee) – He’s overpriced on DK at 8.6k, but he is still in play on FD at only 7.5k. He struggled against a very underrated Missouri defense last week, as they got pressure on him all night. However, in the prior three games, he was solid against Alabama, and lit up Kentucky and South Carolina. He gets a nice bounce back spot against a bad Vanderbilt team, that is vulnerable on the ground (86th ranked rush defense) and through the air (67th ranked pass defense). He’s a dual threat QB, who has 17 or more carries in three of his four starts, and should have success passing and running in this game.
CJ Brown (Maryland) – CJ is very similar to Jake Waters in that he was injured and not running as much recently. However, like Jake, he looked healthy last week with 18 carries for 87 yards and a TD against a solid Michigan defense. Also, he is facing a weak defense that can be exploited on the ground and in the air. Rutgers is 100th in rush defense (204 YPG and 5.34 YPC) and 70th in pass defense (231 YPG). He was a guy that was on everyone’s radar at the beginning of the year, but has fallen off due to injury and a tough schedule. Over the last six games, Maryland has faced Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan, who are all solid to good defenses. With his health improving and finally facing a vulnerable defense, I’m expecting to see the CJ Brown from the beginning of the year reemerge to have a big day on his senior day. If you’re looking to fit in some of the top tier RBs, he is a nice target at QB, as he is sub 6.5k on both FD and DK.
Jacoby Brissett (NC State) – Brissett gets the pleasure of facing UNC’s atrocious defense, and is cheap on both sites. Vegas is predicting this one to be 39-33 UNC so NC State should put some points up here. Brissett came into the year with a lot of fanfare, but has been disappointing since a solid start. However, he has put up solid numbers against bad defenses, and UNC definitely qualifies as a bad defense. They are 109th in rush defense, allowing 4.81 YPC and 218 YPG, and 118th in passing defense, allowing 282 YPG. At 5.2 on DK and 6.4 on FD, he is an intriguing upside play that lets you stack up at RB and WR.
Jared Goff (BYU) – Goff snuck up on me as I was writing up Stewart. It’s a high total game with a total of 72 and Cal is favored so he could be a sneaky play. Cal has been tough to figure out all year, as they spread the ball to all of their WR, and they sometimes bring in their backup QB, Rubenzer, in the red zone as a running threat. I don’t like that Rubenzer saw some decent action last week, which makes Goff a GPP guy for me. However, BYU has the 13th ranked rush defense, but the 97th ranked pass defense so there should be limited Rubenzer sightings as Cal should have to throw it around. As always you do have to worry about him coming into the game if Cal is inside the 5. Prior to last week’s matchup with Stanford, Goff routinely had 50 pass attempts per game so the volume and high Vegas total looks good.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – JT Barrett (Ohio State), Travis Wilson (Utah- GPP punt), Reggie Bonnafon (Louisville – GPP punt), Skyler Howard (West Virginia – GPP play if he is starting for Trickett)
Running Back
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) – Minnesota is 52nd in rush defense, but does allow 4.42 YPC, and Gordon is matchup proof. Also Corey Clement has a banged up shoulder, and Wisconsin has said they will be careful with him, so Gordon could see a few extra carries. There’s also a ton of narrative street pointing towards Gordon. This will be his last game at home as he’ll be playing on Sundays next year. It also comes against rival Minnesota, who Gordon claimed tried to twist his ankle in pile last year. As a result, he said he has had this game circled all year. Oh yeah, he’s also chasing Barry Sanders record for rushing yards in a season. Gordon, Chubb, and Coleman are the top priced RBs on the sites and are all in quality matchups. I’d try to fit one of them in your cash lineups as an anchor.
Tevin Coleman (Indiana) – He followed up his 300 yard rushing game against Rutgers with 228 yards and two TDs against Ohio State. Indiana has no passing threat and he is still running wild, which is incredibly impressive. He gets a great matchup against Purdue who is 90th in rushing defens,e allowing 188 YPG and 4.51 YPC. Vegas has Indiana projected to score 31 points here, which is the highest total that I’ve seen for them since Nate Sudfeld was injured. I don’t see any way Indiana scores four TDs without Coleman accounting for a minimum of two of them, and probably more.
Nick Chubb (Georgia) – Chubb rounds out the trio of top backs. With Gurley’s unfortunate injury, Chubb should go back to shouldering the load for the Georgia running game. He had at least 143 rushing yards in each of the four games that Gurley missed, and topped 30 carries in two of the games. Vegas has this game projected to be high scoring with a total of 66, and Georgia favored by 12.5 points so game flow sets up nicely for Chubb. Georgia Tech has really struggled against the run this year, as they allow 5.01 YPC.
Devontae Booker (Utah) – Booker isn’t a household name, but he’s been very good this year. Outside of a tough matchup against Stanford, he’s been rock solid since Week 5. Since Week 5, he has at least 25 touches in every game, and has rushed for 100 yards in every game but two. One of those came against Stanford, and other was against Oregon. In the game against Oregon, Utah was trailing so his carries were limited, but he had eight receptions for 110 yards in that game. Basically, Utah will find a way to get the ball in his hands. He’s underpriced on FD at only 7.3k, and in play on DK at 7.7k. He rushed for 142 yards last week, but didn’t find the end zone so he is still cheap. He gets a great matchup against Colorado, who is 106th in rush defense allowing 212 YPG and an obscene 5.80 YPC.
Justin Jackson (Northwestern) – For some reason, FD just doesn’t want to raise the price on Jackson, as he is still sub 7k. He’s a solid price on DK at 7.3k and probably priced correctly there. Northwestern just lost their QB to a torn ACL, so they should lean on Jackson even more. He consistently gets 25 touches a game and has rushed for over 140 yards in each of the past two games. He gets a dream matchup with Illinois’ 120th ranked rush defense that allows 258 YPG and 5.18 YPC.
Javorious Allen (USC) – This is a DK play only as he is only 6.3k. On FD, he’s 8.8k and I’d much rather pay a little more for Chubb or Coleman. His skill set is a perfect fit for a PPR site like DK, and he was 9k just a few weeks ago. He’s been held to only 60 rushing yards in each of the past two games, but prior to that had rushed for 100 yards in every game except one and is a beast in the passing game. Justin Davis is stealing some carries away as has 20 carries over the past two games, while Allen has 35 carries. However, he is still getting heavy usage in the passing game as he has 11 receptions over his last two games, and 39 on the year. Right now Notre Dame is reeling on defense, and has coughed up at least 120 rushing yards to a running back in each of their last three games.
Jalen Hurd (Tennessee) – He’s coming off a down game against a solid Missouri defense, which has kept his price low. He’s cheap on both sites at 5.5 on FD and 5.2 on DK. He’s a nice play on DK, as he has caught six passes or more in three of the four games that Joshua Dobbs has started at QB. Tennessee is playing for bowl eligibility and I expect them to lean on Hurd against Vanderbilit’s lackluster run defense (86th in the country). Prior to the Mizzou game, Hurd had 100 yards rushing in his two previous games, and I expect him to hit that mark again on Saturday to go along with his work in the passing game.
Baylor running game – Devon Chafin has thrown a wrench into the Baylor running game so despite the matchup against Tech, it’s tough to roster anyone outside of a GPP. Chafin has scored seven TDs in the past three weeks, and has taken over the role of goaline back. He has 14, 11, and 21 carries in that time span. Meanwhile, Shock Linwood has also scored a TD in each game as he has four TDs in that span. He has 14, 23, and 21 carries over that span. The end result is that they are really limiting each other’s upside.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Shadrach Thornton (GPP), Rushel Shell (GPP)
Wide Receiver
Nelson Spruce (Colorado) – This is another DK play. I don’t mind him at 7.6k on FD, but he carries some risk due to his QB situation. However, at only 5.7k on DK the risk is built into his price, and he’s tied for the FBS lead in receptions with 101. Utah is a solid defense, and leads the nation in sacks, but has struggled against the pass (86th in the country). He’s coming off of a terrible game with two receptions for 16 yards, as Colorado switched QBs and started Jordan Gehrke. Gehrke is not a polished passer and is more of a runner than Sefo Liufau, who started for most of the season. Colorado hasn’t announced who will start the next game, but for Spruce’s sake (and ours) hopefully it’s Sefo. As long as Sefo is the starting QB, the price on DK is just too good to pass up.
Kevin White (West Virginia) – DK has really thrown out some cheap prices on some WRs as White is only 7.2k. Even on FD, 8.2k is the cheapest he has been in quite a while. He has cooled off some since his incredible start, but had 16 receptions in a game two weeks ago, and scored a TD last week. He gets a soft opponent for the first time in a few weeks in Iowa State, who has struggled all year long defensively and is 101st in pass defense. The WVU passing game could get a boost as Skyler Howard is expected to start for the struggling, Clint Trickett, who suffered a concussion in the 3rd quarter of last week’s game. Howard looked impressive last week as he came in and tossed two TD passes, including one to White.
DeVante Parker (Louisville) – Parker falls in the same boat as White and Spruce, in that you’re getting a great price on a top tier WR. Parker is sub 7k on both FD and DK, which is a great price for someone with his talent. I thought he’d get a small bump down with Bonnafon in at QB, but he still managed four receptions for 65 yards and a TD in bad weather against Notre Dame. He should find an easier go of it this week against a Kentucky defense that is 89th in points against allowing 30 PPG.
Antwan Goodley (Baylor) – I like Corey Coleman too, and he is definitely in play if you can afford him. I think RB is the spot to spend on this week, and there is so much value at WR in the 7k range that I’m finding it hard to fit Coleman. Coleman’s been hogging all of the recent production, but at some point I think it should even out between Coleman and Goodley. Goodley is sub7k on both sites, and 2k cheaper than Coleman. This is a game where they could both go over 100 yards and catch a deep bomb, so I’ll take the savings with Goodley and spend up at RB.
Kaelin Clay & Kenneth Scott (Utah) – Both of these guys are in play as WR3 if you need to save some salary. They are sub 4k on DK and are minimum price on FD. Clay is the big play guy with the higher upside, whereas Scott is more of the possession receiver with a higher floor. Colorado is 94th against the pass so one of these two should have a good game and pay off his salary with ease.
Mitch Matthews (BYU) – He’s not particularly cheap and is priced right around Goodley and Parker, so I think he won’t be highly owned. However, he’s BYU’s leading WR and has a good rapport with Christian Stewart. He has three TDs in the last two weeks and has been over 100 yards receiving in each game. This game is expected to be high scoring and BYU is slight underdogs so they should be throwing against the worst pass defense in the country.
Leonte Caroo (Rutgers) – Caroo is cheap at sub 5.5k on both sites and gets a nice matchup with Maryland’s 60th ranked pass defense. He is a boom or bust option, but at his price is a nice gamble. He was locked down last week by a tough Michigan State defense, so this is a nice buy low opportunity. He is a big play WR that has five 100 yard receiving days on the year and could get loose against Maryland.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Tyler Lockett (Kansas State), Nelson Agholor (USC), Rashad Green (FSU), Jalen Fitzpatrick (Temple – DK only)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – EJ Bibbs (Iowa State), Nick O’Leary (FSU), Evan Engram (Ole Miss), Steven Scheu (Vandy), Jeff Heuerman (Ohio State), Tyler Kroft (Rutgers)
Late Slate – FD & DK
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota (Oregon) – The late slate doesn’t have much value at the QB position so it looks like a position to spend up. This game has the highest Vegas total of the late slate and Oregon is favored by 19, so as usual, Oregon is expected to score a ton. The Oregon State secondary has been struggling lately and is now ranked 85th in the country. Mariota should be able to do damage in the air and with his feet as the Oregon offense has hit its stride in recent weeks.
Cody Fajardo (Nevada) – Outside of one terrible week against San Diego State, Fajardo has been on absolute tear in the last six weeks. He’s rushed for over 100 yards in three of four games and should have lots of success against UNLV’s 123rd ranked rush defense, which allows 5.47 YPC and 284 YPC. UNLV’s pass defense is nothing to write home about either as they are 77th in the country. Vegas expects Nevada to score 35 points in this one, which should mean at least three TDs for Fajardo.
Luke Falk (Washington State) – Falk has picked up right where Connor Halliday left off. He threw for 600 yards last week and even had a rushing TD. This game is expected to be a fairly high scoring close game. Washington has the 115th ranked pass defense allowing 278 YPG and recently dismissed their top DB. Washington State is the top ranked passing attack in the country and Falk hasn’t thrown for less than 346 yards since becoming the starter. I don’t see that changing this week.
Sean Mannion (Oregon State) – Mannion is the one value QB that I think is in play. The Oregon State passing attack has finally picked up, and he has thrown for over 300 yards in three of his last four games. Oregon is ranked 114th in passing defense and Oregon State should be in chase mode the entire night, so he should be throwing a ton. Last year he threw for 314 yards and two TDs in this matchup.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Cyler Miles (GPP)
Running Backs
Joey Iosefa (Hawaii) – Iosefa is back from injury, and Hawaii is not being shy about using him. He had 35 carries for over 200 yards last week, and 26 carries the week prior. Fresno is a really bad defense, especially their 111th ranked rush defense. He should get his typical 25+ carries in this one, which should translate to well over 100 rushing yards and a few rushing TDs.
Dwayne Washington (Washington) – Washington has taken over as the Huskies’ lead back. He still shares carries with Lavon Coleman, and Cyler Miles will run as well, but he should have at least 15 carries in this one. He has been over 100 rushing yards in each of the last two games and Washington could take a run heavy approach to try to control the clock against Washington State’s potent pass attack.
Chris James (Pitt) – James Conner is questionable for this matchup. Miami has been solid against the run this year as they are 31st in the country. I probably wouldn’t pay the price for a banged up Conner, but if he is out, then Chris James would see the bulk of the carries. He is dirt cheap, would get around 20 carries and would open a lot of salary. Monitor this situation until kick, and if Conner is out then James is in play as a cheap RB2.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Jay Ajayi (Boise State), Don Jackson (Nevada)
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper (Alabama) – He’s flat out too cheap on DK and in play on FD. He left last week’s game early, but it was said to just be precautionary. Auburn has been very shaky of late, and they have been vulnerable through the air, as they are ranked 74th in passing defense. Alabama has schemed the ball into Amari’s hands the entire year, and nothing should change in this intense rivalry game. Cooper lit up this Auburn secondary in last year’s Iron Bowl for 178 yards and a TD.
Vince Mayle (Washington State) – With Washington down its top corner, they have no answer for Mayle. He is one of the safest receivers out there as Washington State’s does nothing but throw, and he is the top target. He’s coming off of a monster 15 receptions for 250 yards against Arizona State, and should keep on rolling in the Apple Cup.
Victor Bolden (Oregon State) – The Oregon State passing game has finally gotten on track and so has Bolden. He has double digit receptions and over 100 yards receiving in three of his last four games. Oregon State is expected to be trailing and is going to have to pass try to keep up with Oregon.
Devante Davis (UNLV) – Despite poor QB play, Davis has gone over 100 yards receiving in two of his three games since returning from injury. Nevada is the 116th ranked passing defense allowing 280 YPG and doesn’t have anyone who can match Davis’ talent. The Vegas total is set at 63.5 and UNLV is expected to be trailing so game flow is in Davis’ direction.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Tyler Boyd (Pitt), Jordan Villamin (Oregon State), Jaydon Mickens (Washington)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Cam Serigne (Wake Forest), Clive Walford (Miami), OJ Howard
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend, enjoy the massive amounts of football, and Happy Thanksgiving!