CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 15
Welcome back to Week 15’s edition of CFB “Traffic Lights” plays. With it being a shorter slate, I’ll break things down “Grind Down” style, and provide a quick overview of the plays from each game.
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Thursday/Friday Slate
UCF at East Carolina (-7, 56)
Passing Defense: UCF – 6th (166 YPG), East Carolina – 104th (262 YPG)
Rush Defense: UCF – 9th (105 YPG, 3.28 YPC), East Carolina – 7th (103 YPG, 3.21 YPC)
This will be an interesting game as the ECU offense is very explosive, but UCF is ranked in the top 10 in both run defense and pass defense. I think they are a solid unit but don’t think they are a top 10 defense in the country, as they’ve feasted on some really bad offenses. Vegas has this one going 31-24 in favor of ECU so ECU should score, but not at the rate they typically do. If you can afford them, Shane Carden and Justin Hardy are in play on a short slate. However, if I’m spending I prefer Mariota to Carden, and Hardy is very tough to fit if you pay up at QB. Cam Worthy is ECU’s second WR and is in play if he is cheap. However, his price is too high on FD for me. Breon Allen is a solid RB for ECU, but his carries are unpredictable and UCF has a solid run defense.
The UCF RB situation is murky right now as starting RB, William Stanback is expected to return from injury, while the backup RB, Dontravious Wilson, is questionable. However, Stanback was listed as probable last week, and still missed the game. It’s a situation to be careful with. I’m not that interested in Justin Holman because I’m trying to roster Mariota, but Breshad Perriman and Rannell Hall are interesting as the ECU secondary is vulnerable. Rannell Hall was UCF’s leading WR last year, but has been slowed by injuries this year. With Stanback and Wilson both missed last game with injuries, so Hall had 10 carries for 65 yards and a TD, and also five receptions for 19 yards. If they are out again, he’s a great play, as he should continue to get touches at RB and WR. However, even if Stanback plays, he should still be a solid play. JJ Worton tore his ACL last game so Perriman and Hall are solidified as the top two targets. With the potential for Hall to get some action at RB as well as WR, he’s a high upside play. Perriman’s been the more consistent of the two, and is the leading UCF WR on the year so he’s the better cash game play.
Green Lights: – Shane Carden (ECU QB), Justin Hardy (ECU WR), Rannell Hall/Breshad Perriman (UCF WR)
Yellow Lights: – Justin Holman (UCF QB), Breon Allen (ECU RB), Cam Worthy (ECU WR)
Red Lights: – N/A
Northern Illinois at Bowling Green in Detroit (+6.5, 59)
Passing Defense: NIU – 72nd (230 YPG), BGSU – 124th (299 YPG)
Rush Defense: NIU – 62nd (161 YPG, 4.14 YPC), BGSU – 96th (197 YPG, 4.93 YPC)
Bowling Green is the worst defense going in this slate by far so it’s not a bad idea to grab a few NIU players. I really like NIU QB, Drew Hare, on two QB sites, and he’s a GPP option on FD if you want to fade Mariota and Carden. The only secondary that is worse than Bowling Green is the horrific Cal secondary. Hare doesn’t get a ton of attempts as he usually settles in around 20, but I could see NIU hitting some play action plays here. He makes up for his lack of volume in the passing game, in the running game, as he sees double digit carries each week. This game is going to be played indoors so weather won’t be a factor and NIU has a big play WR in Da’Ron Brown. I can see Brown getting loose for multiple big plays against this defense. If it wasn’t a three game slate, I wouldn’t be considering Cameron Stingily. His carries can be very sporadic and he is coming off a 7 carry game. However, in the prior three weeks he had at least 15 carries in each game. Bowling Green is 96th in rush defense and allow almost 5 YPC. With a short three game slate, taking a gamble that the carries will be there this week against a bad run defense isn’t a bad plan.
Bowling Green QB, James Knapke, got everyone’s attention with a big first game against Indiana. However, everyone has big games against Indiana and he has really faded down the stretch. Travis Greene returned from injury last week and was productive with 14 carries for 159 yards and a TD against Ball State. However, he split carries with Fred Coppett, who had 16 carries for 140 yards and a TD. It looks like it is going to be a RBBC. Roger Lewis’ production has tailed off as Knapke has struggled. If he’s cheap then he is in play on such a short slate, but I wouldn’t pay a premium and think he is overpriced at FD. If you need a punt WR, Gehrig Dieter looks interesting. He is a transfer from SMU who entered the year with solid buzz. However, he was injured for the majority of the year before returning three games ago. Since returning from injury, he hasn’t reached the endzone but has still been able to top 60 yards receiving in each week. If he reaches the endzone he’ll easily pay off his salary, and he should at least provide four to five receptions for 60 yards, and will open up your cap to fit Marcus Mariota.
Green Lights: – Drew Hare (NIU QB), Da’Ron Brown (NIU WR), Cameron Stingily (NIU RB)
Yellow Lights: – Gehrig Dieter/Roger Lewis (BGSU WR), Fred Coppett/Travis Greene (BGSU RB)
Red Lights: – James Knapke (BGSU QB)
Arizona at Oregon in Santa Clara (-14.5 72.5)
Passing Defense: Arizona – 116th (275 YPG), Oregon – 111th (272 YPG)
Rush Defense: Arizona – 58th (160 YPG, 3.88 YPC), Oregon – 54th (158 YPG, 4.19 YPC)
The first time these two teams played, the game had a monstrous total of 81.5. The shootout never materialized as Arizona surprisingly shut down Oregon and won 31 -24. With Oregon favored by two TDs and a high total, Vegas is doubling down and saying that won’t happen again. I tend to believe them. In the first go round, Arizona locked up the Oregon run game holding Mariota to 1 rushing yard, and Royce Freeman to 19 carries for 85 yards. The Oregon offensive line was struggling early on, but has improved as the year has progressed and is getting healthy. With the Thursday-Friday game slate being a short slate with only three games, it makes sense to start your lineup building with Mariota as your anchor. Mariota has at least four total TDs in each of his last five games, and should feast on Arizona’s 116h ranked pass defense. I think it’s also next to impossible that Arizona holds him to 1 rushing yard a second time. If you don’t roster Mariota, then Royce Freeman would be an avenue to get a piece of the Oregon offense. Since the down game against Arizona, he’s picked it up as he has at least 98 rushing yards in each game and 11 rushing TDs in seven games. Also, backup RB, Thomas Tyner could miss this game, leaving the bulk of the carries to Freeman. However, Arizona has been solid against the run and boasts the Pac 12’s defensive player of the year in linebacker, Scooby Wright. The Oregon WR are GPP only as Oregon spreads the ball around and they alternate big weeks. At the beginning of the year, Devon Allen was the guy to target, then it was Dwayne Stanford for a few weeks, and the past two weeks it has been Charles Nelson. RB turned WR Byron Marshall has been the most consistent of their WR, but isn’t a red zone target, so he needs to break a big play for a TD, which he did last week. Also, if Tyner is out, he’ll get two to three carries a game. For that reason, I’d lean Marshall if I’m taking an Oregon WR, but just know they are all just very tough to peg. The TEs in this slate are pathetic, and Evan Baylis appears to be the least bad of the group. He’s getting playing time due to Pharaoh Brown’s injury and did catch a TD two weeks ago. He’s listed on the donbest.com injury report, but from what I can tell he looks good to go. It’s a situation to monitor, and if he is out, then plug in Johnny Mundt.
Anu Solomon’s freshman year has been very impressive. However, his ankle is banged up and he has really struggled down the stretch. He has scored less than 15 FD points in four of his last five games so he’s not in play for me right now, as I’d much rather stick with Mariota, Drew Hare or Shane Carden in this slate. The play for Arizona looks to be the RB, Nick Wilson. The Arizona RBs feasted in the first matchup with Oregon as Wilson had 13 carries for 92 yards and two TDs, and Terris Jones-Grigsby added 210 yards of total offense on 31 touches. Since then, Wilson has taken over duties as primary running back, as Jones-Grigsby can’t get fully healthy, and has eight TDs over the past three weeks. Although Oregon is expected to win, Arizona is predicted to score 29 points and I could see two of those coming on the ground as Wilson has another 100 yards rushing day. Solomon’s struggles have affected the Arizona WRs as their production has been down, especially top WR, Cayleb Jones. Samaje Grant has been the one Arizona WR who has been solid recently. However, he was just pulled over for a DUI and will not start in this game. With it being a short slate, and Oregon’s 111th ranked passing defense, maybe this is the bounce back for Jones.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Marcus Mariota (Oregon QB), Nick Wilson (Arizona RB), Evan Baylis (Oregon TE)
Yellow Lights: – Royce Freeman (Oregon RB), Byron Marshall (Oregon WR), Cayleb Jones (Arizona WR)
Red Lights: – Anu Solomon (Arizona QB)
Saturday Slate – DK & FD
Iowa State at TCU (-33.5, 69)
Passing Defense: ISU – 102nd (261 YPG), TCU – 92nd (251 YPG)
Rush Defense: ISU – 120th (251 YPG, 5.71 YPC), TCU – 18th (120 YPG, 3.01 YPC)
With it being championship week, the majority of the teams in action are high-quality and have very solid defenses. However, Iowa State is not one of those teams and does not field a quality defense. TCU is in great position for a playoff berth, and all that is standing in there way is the porous ISU defense. I don’t expect TCU to let their foot off the gas, and I don’t expect much of a fight from ISU’s 102nd ranked pass defense and 120th ranked rush defense. Trevon Boykin is a dual threat who will exploit both areas of ISU’s terrible defense. He’s the premier QB available in this slate and also has the best matchup of all the QBs. It looks like BJ Catalon will miss another game as Gary Patterson said they would be very careful with him. If he’s out, then Aaron Green makes a solid mid-tier play against ISU’s pitiful run defense. He’s scored a TD in each of the three games that Catalon has missed and has been over 100 yards rushing in two of the three games. Josh Doctson was rolling along as TCU’s top WR, but suffered a high ankle sprain against Texas Tech a month ago. He struggled in the following weeks, but looked fully healthy on Thanksgiving night against Texas with seven receptions for 115 yards and a TD. He’s particularly cheap on DK at only $5,100. Deante’ Gray is listed as questionable so be sure to check his injury status if you roster him.
Vegas has TCU winning this one along the lines of 51-18 so I’m not really interested in the ISU offense. They could be without their top target in TE, EJ Bibbs, and although TCU hasn’t been great this year on defense, they are a defense I typically avoid. If Bibbs is out, you could take a stab at D’Vario Montgomery as ISU should be way down and throwing the ball so maybe he racks up some garbage time stats.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Trevone Boykin (TCU QB), Aaron Green (TCU RB – if Catalon is out), Josh Doctson (TCU WR)
Yellow Lights: – D’Vario Montgomery (ISU WR)
Red Lights: – ISU running game, Sam B. Richardson (ISU QB)
Houston at Cincinnati (-6.5, 57.5)
Passing Defense: UH – 11th (184 YPG), Cincinnati – 101st (258 YPG),
Rush Defense: UH – 31st (135 YPG, 3.54 YPC), Cincinnati – 79th (177 YPG, 4.61 YPC)
Cincinnati is expected to score around 32 points here, however, they are a really tough team to predict. It looked like Rod Moore was taking over the backfield, but last week Mike Boone saw more carries. At WR, Mekele McKay is the leading WR, but he’s not a true number one WR, as they spread it around to five different WRs. UH has been very solid defensively so I wouldn’t try to force anything here. There isn’t a lot of value at QB in this slate so Gunner Kiel is in play if you need to save at QB. He started the year off on a tear, but has come back to earth in recent weeks.
Cincinnati has been a poor defense for most of the year, but has been improving of late. There are a few UH plays that could be ok plays in Greg Ward, Jr., Kenneth Farrow and Deontay Greenberry in GPPs. The insertion of Greg Ward, Jr., into the starting lineup has kickstarted the UH ground game, and helped Kenneth Farrow. Opposing defenses have to worry about Ward, Jr., so it’s opened up some lanes for Farrow and he’s responded with 100 rushing yards in three of the last four weeks and has six TDs in his last two weeks. Greg Ward, Jr, typically sees double digit carries, and did rush for three TDs last week, but that was against SMU. I think he’s more in play as a QB2 on DK, where is only 6.6k. Deontay Greenberry won me a lot of money last year, so I’ve had a hard time quitting him this year. He’s had a few big weeks but for the most part has been a disappointment. Cincinnati really struggles in the secondary so I do like him again as a GPP play this week. He’s a really talented kid but has struggled due to the QB situation at UH.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Kenneth Farrow (UH RB), Gunner Kiel (Cincinnati QB)
Yellow Lights: – Greg Ward, Jr., (UH QB), Deontay Greenberry (UH WR), Mekele McKay (Cincinnati WR)
Red Lights: – Cincinnati RBs
SMU at UCONN (-12, 46)
Passing Defense: SMU – 118th (282 YPG), UCONN – 42nd (215 YPG)
Rush Defense: SMU – 115th (235 YPG, 5.16 YPC), UCONN – 59th (160 YPG, 4.05 YPC),
This game is filthy. By filthy I don’t mean it in the good “that dunk was filthy”, but more like “what my son just did in his diaper was filthy.” Despite SMU’s atrocious defense, Vegas is predicting a low scoring game between two very bad offenses. The only three players worth mentioning are Matt Davis, Ron Johnson, and Geremy Davis, but they’re all only GPP plays for me. Matt Davis is former four star recruit and transferred to SMU from A&M. He was really popular with the A&M football team, and is a great leader, but leaves a lot to be desired in throwing ability. The only reason he is worth GPP consideration is the short slate and his involvement in the running game. He has 20 carries in two of the last four weeks so he could grab you 80 rushing yards and a TD. UCONN has been solid defensively and SMU is only predicted to score 17 points so it’s a pretty risky play.
UCONN is 126th in the country in PPG, averaging only 15 PPG. This a battle of a bad offense against a bad defense, and as we saw when South Florida faced SMU, the bad offense doesn’t always prevail. Ron Johnson looks like he might be the “lead” RB as he had 22 carries last week. However, he only has 328 rushing yards and two TDs on the year and is averaging just 3.6 YPC. He’s bare minimum on FD and 4.4k on DK so if you need a GPP punt he’s an option due to SMU’s terrible run defense. Four weeks ago, Deshon Foxx was getting some run as wildcat QB and UCONN was trying to get him touches. There was even talk of him starting at QB one game. That never materialized and he’s completely disappeared the last two games. If I had to choose a UCONN WR to play in GPP it would be Geremy Davis. He was actually a 1,000 yard receiver last year, but hasn’t been able to get going this year due to injuries, and the coaches weirdly playing some younger WRs. He showed back up on the radar last week with five receptions for 62 yards and looks to be fully healthy. He’s minimum price on FD and 3.6k on DK and maybe worth a dart throw as a GPP WR3.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – None
Yellow Lights: – Matt Davis (SMU QB), Ron Johnson (UCONN RB), Geremy Davis (UCONN WR)
Red Lights: – SMU offense
La Tech at Marshall (-11.5, 68.5)
Passing Defense: La Tech – 74th (232 YPG), Marshall – 36th (205 YPG)
Rush Defense: La Tech – 16th (118 YPG, 3.27 YPG), Marshall – 49th (154 YPG, 3.73 YPC)
This game is really tough to break down because so many things depend on Devon Johnson’s injury situation. He left last Friday’s game against Western Kentucky after only 3 carries, and killed a ton of lineups, including mine. His backup, Steward Butler, rushed for 233 yards and two TDs on 24 carries. Marshall is very tight lipped with injuries and isn’t giving anything away. This might be a situation that you have to monitor right up until kickoff. If Johnson sits, Butler makes a really nice value play at only 5.8k on FD and 6.5 on DK. I wouldn’t expect another 200 yard game as Western Kentucky is abysmal on defense and La Tech is actually pretty solid. However, this Marshall offensive line is really good so I’d be confident in at least 100 yards and a TD at a minimum. I think Johnson sitting would also have a ripple effect on the Marshall passing game as they’d probably get a slight bump in usage and La Tech is more vulnerable to the pass than run. Cato is coming off of a 400 yard, seven TD game against Western Kentucky. It’s good to see him break out, but it also has pushed his price up near Boykin. At similar price points I prefer Boykin, especially if Devon Johnson plays. Western Kentucky jumped out to a quick lead so Marshall was forced to throw. I’m not necessarily expecting 46 pass attempts from Cato again, but think there is a better chance of it occurring if Devon Johnson is out. It took the majority of the year, but Tommy Shuler is finally back. He has back to back games with 132 yards and ten receptions and scored in each game. Davonte Allen returned from injury last week and went right back to making big plays as he had six receptions for 141 yards and two TDs. He’s not a great PPR guy but he has big play ability, and has over 100 yards receiving in three of the five games he’s played in. Marshall has one of the higher team totals of the day as they are projected to score 40 points so the Devon Johnson situation is one to definitely monitor.
Marshall had been very good defensively all year, but got lit up by Western Kentucky’s air raid attack for 67 points. I don’t think the Marshall defense is as good as the numbers indicate due to an easy schedule, but I also don’t think they’ll be giving up a 60 spot again anytime soon. Leon Allen accounted for 280 total yards and one TD last week against them, and Tech has a very good RB in their own right in Kenneth Dixon. Dixon has rushed for over 1,000 yards and 18 TDs, and has scored in every game except the opener against Oklahoma. He also has five receiving TDs as he gets involved in the passing game as well. He’s not cheap and doesn’t carry the name recognition of other RBs in this slate so he probably won’t be highly owned. He is at an awkward price point so I’d prefer him as a GPP play. In cash games, I would either spend up to get one of Perine, Gordon, or Ajayi, or save with Cook or Yeldon. La Tech’s top WR is Trent Taylor and he has scored seven TDs in his past four weeks. He’s too expensive for me on DK, but is a nice option at 5.9k on FD. At QB, Cody Sokolisn’t cheap and is highly volatile so he’s a GPP only play at best for me.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Rakeem Cato (Marshall QB – slight bump down if Johnson plays), Tommy Shuler (Marshall WR), Steward Butler (Marshall RB – if Johnson sits, Kenneth Dixon (La Tech RB), Trent Taylor (La Tech WR – FD price)
Yellow Lights: – Trent Taylor (La Tech WR – DK price), Cody Sokol (La Tech QB), Davonte Allen (Marshall WR)
Red Lights: – N/A
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-20, 59.5)
Pass Defense: Oklahoma State – 120th (283 YPG), OU – 114th (273 YPG)
Rush Defense: OSU 50th (156 YPG, 3.99 YPC), OU – 11th (109 YPG, 3.08 YPC)
It looks like Mason Rudolph will draw the start for OSU on Saturday. OSU’s top two QBs were out injury against Baylor, so Rudolph burned his redshirt and threw for 281 yards, two TDs and two interceptions. He’s dirt cheap and OU’s pass defense has been terrible so maybe on a site like FD where is 4.8k you could throw him in if you need to fit a Melvin Gordon. However, I just don’t trust a true freshman in his second start on the road. Also, OSU took a run heavy approach in his first start as they ran the ball 43 times and threw it only 25 times. The OSU offense has been a disappointment the entire year and I’ll be avoiding their entire offense as they are only predicted for 20 points.
Trevor Knight is out so Cody Thomas will get another start. However, this is the Samaje Perine show and if OU has success on the ground, they’ll just run it the entire game. Perine broke Melvin Gordon’s single game rushing record with 427 yards two weeks ago against Kansas on 34 carries. Cody Thomas has been terrible when OU has let him throw it, and has killed all of the value in any OU WRs. Sterling Shephard is questionable, but even if does play, you have to wonder whether Thomas can get him the ball. The only play in this game looks to be Perine, and he should get a ton of carries against a beatable run defense.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Samaje Perine (OU RB)
Yellow Lights: – Mason Rudolph (OSU QB – GPP punt play only on FD)
Red Lights: – Rest of this game
Alabama at Missouri in Atlanta (+14.5, 48.5)
Passing Defense: Alabama – 55th (220 YPG), Missouri 35th (204 YPG)
Rush Defense: Alabama – 2nd (92.7 YPG, 2.87 YPC), Missouri – 26th (127 YPG, 3.39 YPC)
The Missouri offense has been sub-par the entire year, and I typically just avoid the Alabama defense. I know Auburn put up 44 on Bama last week, but Maty Mauk sure isn’t Nick Marshall. I’ll be fading the entire Missouri offense as they are projected to score under 17 points.
Blake Sims is an ok option on two QB sites like DK, although I’d prefer Jake Waters or Jameis Winston as they are similarly priced on DK. If you can fit Amari Cooper then do it, he’s really good and he is Blake Sims’ first read on every single passing play. Lane Kiffin moves him all over the field to get him mismatches and he is as sure a thing as there is at WR. I don’t typically target the Missouri defense as I think they are underrated, but I like TJ Yeldon this week and think he will be lightly owned. Yeldon’s really cheap on DK and his knee looked good last week against Auburn. Auburn is vulnerable to the pass, but had a solid run defense coming into last week’s game, and Yeldon still ran for 127 yards and two TDs on 19 carries. Missouri has been somewhat vulnerable on the ground against quality backs as Kareem Hunt, Tevin Coleman, and Nick Chubb all had good days against them. Last week, Arkansas ran the ball effectively on them as they averaged 5.2 YPC, but Arkansas just couldn’t complete a pass. Alabama won’t have that problem with Amari Cooper to throw to. Cooper’s presence is starting to open things up for the Alabama running game, and I think Yeldon could have another 100 yard day with two TDs here.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – TJ Yeldon (Alabama RB), Amari Cooper (Alabama WR)
Yellow Lights: – Blake Sims (Alabama QB)
Red Lights: – Missouri
Temple at Tulane (+3.5, 43.5)
Passing Defense: Tulane – 67th (228 YPG), Temple – 19th (190 YPG)
Rush Defense: Tulane – 68th (164 YPG, 4.32 YPC), Temple – 69th (164 YPG, 3.78 YPC)
This game is right there with UCONN and SMU in terms of ugliness and can probably just be avoided altogether. Tulane is only averaging 17 PPG, and hasn’t scored more than seven points in each of the past two weeks. Temple has a solid defense so Tulane can just be ignored. Temple hasn’t been much more impressive offensively as they are only scoring 24 PPG. The only two that are worth mentioning are PJ Walker and Jalen Fitzpatrick.
PJ Walker started off the year with 19 of more fantasy points in his first four games. Since then he has been on a downward slide. However, this by far the easiest defense he has faced since the beginning of the season so maybe he gets back on track here. He’s had 35+ pass attempts in each of the past three weeks and sees around 10 carries a game so the volume is there. He’s not quite cheap enough on FD, but on DK if you are looking to squeeze in of the top RB or Cooper I could see him as a QB 2. Walker’s top target is Jalen Fitzpatrick, who is also pretty cheap on DK. You’ll want to double check his injury status, but from everything I have seen he should be good to go. He had 16 targets last week and is a nice play on a PPR site like DK.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Jalen Fitzpatrick (Temple WR)
Yellow Lights: – PJ Walker (Temple QB)
Red Lights: – Tulane offense
Kansas State at Baylor (-7.5, 66)
Passing Defense: KSU – 56th (221 YPG), Baylor – 100th (256 YPG)
Rush Defense: KSU – 19th (120 YPG, 3.63 YPC), Baylor – 10th (108 YPC, 2.98 YPC)
It looks like Bryce Petty should play in this one after leaving last week with a concussion. You’ll want to double check though. He’s been disappointing in recent weeks and if I’m spending at QB, I much prefer Boykin. He makes for a decent GPP play as most people will be off of him so he should have low ownership. Kansas State is solid defensively and with his recent struggles, he’s not somewhere I’d go in cash games. Devin Chafin looks to be out with a dislocated elbow, so Shock Linwood gets a boost. Johnny Jefferson got some snaps last week in place of Chafin, but the bulk of the carries will go to Linwood. The KSU front seven has been pretty good all year long though. The Baylor passing game has been frustrating recently. Corey Coleman’s price is too high for me to stomach as it is still high from his huge game against OU two weeks ago. In the past two weeks, he has been ok but certainly hasn’t paid off his high tag. Antwan Goodley is still super cheap but for some reason has just disappeared from this offense. I still like him as a GPP play due to his price and talent, but his usage is very concerning.
Jake Waters is pretty cheap on DK so he makes for a very solid play there. He’s starting to get healthy and is coming off of a five TD game. The Baylor defense is starting to show some cracks, especially through the air as they are 100th in the country in pass defense. Waters gets a lot of action in the KSU run game and also should have success connecting with Tyler Lockett. This game should be one of the higher scoring games of the day, and Waters comes at a significant discount to Bryce Petty, who is also coming off a concussion. Speaking of Lockett, he is definitely in play as he has absolutely been on fire the past three weeks. The only question with him is price as he is right there with Amari Cooper. Curry Sexton has quietly gone over 100 yards in three of his last four games and is approaching 1,000 yards on the season. I’d avoid the KSU RB as they don’t enough carries to warrant attention.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Bryce Petty (Baylor QB – GPP), Antwan Goodley (Baylor WR – GPP), Jake Waters (KSU QB), Tyler Lockett (KSU WR)
Yellow Lights: – Bryce Petty (Baylor QB- cash games), Corey Coleman (Baylor WR), Shock Linwood (Baylor RB), Curry Sexton (KSU WR)
Red Lights: – KSU RB
Florida State at Georgia Tech in Charlotte (+4, 61)
Passing Defense: FSU – 62nd (225 YPG), Georgia Tech – 57th (221 YPG)
Rush Defense: Georgia Tech – 70th (168 YPG, 5.08 YPC), FSU – 42nd (146 YPG, 3.73 YPC)
All the off the field hoopla seems to have really affected Jameis Winston, as he has been unimpressive the entire year. This Georgia Tech defense is vulnerable so Winston’s in play on sites where he is priced at a discount, like DK. The play I really like from this game is Dalvin Cook, who came into this year with a ton of fanfare as a five star recruit. He’s lived up to his billing and then some and has finally overtaken Karlos Williams as the lead FSU RB. He finally topped 20 carries last week for the first time this year, and responded with 172 yards of total offense against a very tough Florida run defense. Georgia Tech has struggled with the running game all year and allows 5.08 YPC. With Winston struggling, FSU should get Cook 20+ carries again against a very suspect Georgia Tech run defense. Rashad Green’s price tag has come back down to earth and now might be a good time to hop back on board. Georgia Tech is 57th against the pass and Rashad is one of the best WR in the country. He always seems to play his best on the big stage so I expect a big night from him as FSU looks to look up a playoff bid and ACC championship.
It’s always hard to figure out a triple option attack so they are always GPP plays for me. It all depends on what FSU wants to take away from Georgia Tech and we won’t know that until the game starts. If they want to take away the QB run, then Laskey and Days make great plays. However, maybe they want to take away the dive man in Laskey and make Justin Thomas keep it. Last week Georgia took away Thomas, and Laskey ran wild with 26 carries for 140 yards and three TDs, and Days chipped in 94 rushing yards on 16 carries. FSU hasn’t been anywhere close to the defense they were last year, so one of Thomas, Laskey, or Days should have a nice day. Thomas’ price is intriguing for a GPP play as QB value is tough to come by, and option QB’s can always go for three rushing TDs. Deandre Smelter, Georgia Tech’s one wide receiver threat is out for the year so avoid him obviously.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Rashad Greene (FSU WR), Dalvin Cook (FSU RB), Nick O’Leary (FSU TE)
Yellow Lights: – Jameis Winston (FSU QB), Justin Thomas (Georgia Tech QB), Synjyn Days & Zach Laskey (Georgia Tech RB)
Red Lights: – Deandre Smelter – out for year so don’t play him
Wisconsin at Ohio State in Indianapolis (+4, 52.5)
Passing Defense: Wisconsin – 2nd (157 YPG), Ohio State- 17th (188 YPG)
Rush Defense:Wisconsin – 8th (104 YPG, 3.0 YPC), Ohio State – 40th (146 YPG, 4.03 YPC)
Ohio State has been solid against the run but are allowing 4.03 YPC and have been struggling recently. In the past four weeks, Tevin Coleman ran for 228 yards and three TDs, David Cobb ran for 145 yards and three TDs, Drake Johnson ran for 74 yards and two TDs, Jeremy Langford for 137 yards and three TDs. That bodes well for Melvin Gordon. The only real question is if you can find the value to fit him in. I’m not interested in any other Wisconsin player, except for maybe Sam Arneson as a TE punt.
I’m not quite sure what to expect from Ohio State here without J.T. Barrett. The total for this game is low and with all of the uncertainty, the Ohio State options are GPP only for me. Cardale Jones will step in as QB in a very QB friendly system. He’s a big kid at 6’5 250 pounds and is said to have a cannon for an arm. He’s way to pricey for me at FD, but on DK I could see him as a GPP play. The question is whether he gets the same usage that J.T. did. Also, if you remember JT Barrett did struggle initially as well trying to get his feet wet. The flipside to that point is that supposedly Barrett and Jones were neck and neck in the QB battle so he’s a pretty talented. With so much uncertainty and a quality Wisconsin defense, I think he’s a GPP only play.
Theoretically, Ezekiel Elliot will probably get a few more looks in the running game, but I’m not sure I want to mess with
Wisconsin’s rush defense. Ohio State has two quality WR in Devin Smith and Michael Thomas but it’s always tough to figure out who to target. The interesting OSU skill position player to me is Jalin Marshall. He is listed as a RB on DK and a WR on FD and is cheap on both spots and has big play ability. He makes for an interesting GPP play as there has been a lot of talk of Marshall getting snaps at QB in the wildcat package. There’s been similar talk in the past with guys like Deshon Foxx and Blake Bell and those never came to fruition so it’s still a risky play but worth noting.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin RB)
Yellow Lights: – Sam Arneson (Wisconsin TE), Cardale Jones (Ohio State QB), Ezekiel Elliot (Ohio State RB), Jalin Marshall (Ohio State WR – GPP)
Red Lights: – N/A
Fresno State at Boise State (-21, 68.5)
Passing Defense: Fresno State – 97th (256 YPG), Boise – 45th (215 YPG)
Rush Defense: Fresno State – 103rd (210 YPG, 4.61 YPC), Boise – 45th (147 YPG, 4.22 YPC)
Boise State has a nice team total sitting in the mid 40’s and Fresno State has been very leaky on defense the entire year. There’s not a whole lot to say about Jay Ajayi. He’s a freak and too talented too be contained by the competition he is facing. He had five rushing TDs and 229 yards in his last game against a Utah State defense that was ranked in the top 20 in rushing defense coming into that game. He has at least three total TDs in his last four games and has at least two TDs in seven straight weeks. He’s right there with Melvin Gordon in this slate and does have the better matchup against Fresno’s 103rd ranked rush defense. Grant Hedrick doesn’t get a ton of work in the passing game as he is typically below 30 pass attempts, but Ajayi draws so much attention that he usually throws for multiple TDs. He also gets double digit carries weekly. He had a 61 point fantasy game a few weeks back which is keeping his price high so I like him more as a GPP play. At WR his two top targets are Thomas Sperbeck and Shane Williams-Rhodes. They are both solid but do take away from each other’s upside.
Fresno State has played multiple guys at QB this year and none of them have been very impressive. Brian Burrell is the current guy but I’d like elsewhere. Marteze Waller has rushed for more than 100 yards in five of his six games, and the only game he didn’t hit that mark he suffered a concussion and left early. Boise State has been average on defense this year and gives up on 4.00 YPC so he is in play. Josh Harper is a talented WR for Fresno but has been held back by their QB play. He’s been getting six to eight receptions per game in recent weeks, and is cheap on DK so I like him there.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Jay Ajayi (Boise State RB), Josh Harper (Fresno State WR- DK), Marteze Waller (Fresno State RB)
Yellow Lights: – Thomas Sperbeck/Shane Williams-Rhodes (Boise State WR), Grant Hedrick (Boise State QB),
Red Lights: – N/A
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!