CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 5
Welcome back to CFB Week 5’s edition of CFB “Traffic Lights” plays. I’m going to break things down by the early game slate and the late game slate – these picks will be based on ONLY the games that are included on BOTH Fanduel and Draftkings. Once again, the Fanduel late slate has an extra 7 games or so included that DK doesn’t so be sure to include those in your analysis if you are playing that slate. In regards to the early slates – FD has included Bowling Green/UMass, and DK has included FIU/UAB, and Western Kentucky/Navy. I haven’t gotten to those games in my research yet so if you have any questions on those feel free to hit me up on twitter later in the week. I’ll analyze the games with the highest projected Vegas over/unders and then list some other green lights play from the games I didn’t analyze.
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Non-conference games
Before I get to the breakdown of the early and last slates, I wanted to discuss some strategy regarding some of these non-conference games as I think there are some important decisions to be made especially regarding the top shelf RB’s, and because I think these non-conference blowout games are becoming increasingly riskier as we get deeper into the season. Some of my best analysis came in these non-conference games (Melvin Gordon) but so did some of my worst analysis (Kenny Hill, Deontay Greenberry, Alex Collins/Jonathan Williams). Overall I wasn’t too happy with the way I approached/analyzed these games, and from the player ownerships last week lots of players fell into these same traps.
Last week we saw some of the biggest misses were from high-priced players on teams in lopsided spreads: Kenny Hill (A&M -34.5), Todd Gurley (UGA-41.5), Jeremy Langford (MSU 43.5), Deontay Greenberry (UH -20.5). Kenny Hill only played one half, Todd Gurley only had 6 carries, Langford had only 9 carries, and UH decided to work on their run game with 52 rush attempts and Greenberry only had 1 reception. The Arkansas running backs were also disappointing as Arkansas scored a quick defensive and special teams TD against NIU and then didn’t lean on Collins and Williams most likely due to a game against A&M the following week. Obviously Melvin Gordon produced huge in a game with a fairly big spread (started at Wisconsin -17 and closed at around Wisconsin -26). However, I think Melvin Gordon was in a unique situation from the above players because: 1) Bowling Green is a very capable offense and was fresh off of beating a big 10 team in Indiana, 2) Wisconsin’s run game was struggling and Melvin Gordon was coming off the worst game of his career and very motivated, 3) Wisconsin didn’t have a big game the following week.
Here are the games that are on definite blowout alert and could present situations similar to last week: TCU/SMU,Wyoming/Michigan St. (-31), USF/Wisconsin (-33), UTEP/KSU (-27), La Tech/Auburn (-32.5), and New Mexico St/LSU (-43). To make matters worse, some of these teams have tough games next week and could pull their starters sooner than expected as TCU plays OU, Michigan St. plays Nebraska, Auburn plays LSU, and Kansas State plays Texas Tech. Wisconsin has the easiest game against Northwestern, but it’s a conference game on the road which head coaches never overlook. In the beginning of the season, teams were installing their offense and wanting to get live game reps for their starters so I think players were a little safer in the blowouts. Now with conference games on the horizon, teams in these lopsided games are now more worried about keeping guys healthy and working on a few problem areas they want to cleanup. What those problem areas are is tough to predict as we saw UH work on their run game last week, and Derrick Henry and TJ Yeldon owners will remember Alabama work on their passing offense during their blowout games in Weeks 2 and 3 this year. For that reason I’d be very price sensitive on the guys in these games, as they are in a more unpredictable situation and more GPP plays to me than 50/50 and head to head.
Akron/Pitt(-20) and Memphis/Ole Miss (-19) are borderline but probably not a big enough spread to be worried. However, Ole Miss does have a huge home game against Alabama next week, and Pitt has a tough Virginia defense on deck next week. The biggest decision is probably what to do with James Conner in a borderline blowout. In law school (insert lawyer joke here), we learned the rule and then we learned the exception to the rule. Well James Conner just might be the exception to the rule and all the worries I just discussed above. This line is a little lower than I expected as I’m not sure if Akron can keep this close – they were down 41-3 to Marshall heading to the 4th quarter last week. It may just not matter with Conner though as he leads the nation with 110 carries (no one else is over 100). His head coach is Paul Chryst, who was OC at Wisconsin, when Montee Ball had 307 carries his junior year so he has shown he will just feed a RB throughout the year. In Wisconsin’s non-conference wins that year in weeks 3 and 4, which were both blowouts, Ball carried it 15 times and 20 times. This year, in a week 1 blowout win against Delaware, Conner only had 14 carries but had 4 touchdowns. Based on that information, I think you could be looking at around 15-20 carries as opposed to the 30 we’ve been seeing, assuming Pitt is comfortably ahead.
Early Slate – FD & DK
Arkansas at Texas A&M (-8.5, 69)
I recommended Collins and Williams last week but they disappointed as Arkansas scored a quick defense and specials teams touchdown against NIU and then just cruised, limiting each to 15 carries. This week they face an uptempo dangerous A&M offense and Arkansas will likely look to control the clock and keep the A&M’s offense of off the field. It should be a similar game plan to the one they employed against Texas Tech’s high powered attack. A&M has shown some improvement in their run defense this year as they currently are 42nd in rush defense allowing 3.18 ypc and 124 ypg, but they haven’t faced anyone close to the test Arkansas will present. As an A&M fan it was promising to see the run defense hold up against South Carolina, limiting them to 3 pc. However, Vegas predicts this one to be high scoring which means Arkansas should have some success on the ground. The issue is whether you go Jonathan Williams or Alex Collins as they are similarly priced. I lean Collins due to his volume (65 carries to Williams 48) but Williams has received more red zone looks and has 7 TDs to Collins 5. My one concern with the Arkansas backs is A&M jumping out to an early lead, similar to the South Carolina game and the entire 2012 A&M season, and putting Arkansas in catch up mode quickly (this just may be my A&M optimism here as Vegas expects this one to stay close). Against South Carolina, A&M got a few early stops and got out to a quick 2 score lead which lead to 40 pass attempts for South Carolina and only 22 rush attempts, which probably wasn’t the Gamecocks’ gameplan going in. Arkansas’ QB, Brandon Allen, had some success last week and will hit on a few play action passes but doesn’t get the volume to be on my radar for DFS purposes. The only guy I would consider out of the Arkansas pass game would be TE Hunter Henry. A&M focused a lot on the run last year and lost track of him on play action as he had 4 receptions for 109 yards.
Kenny Hill’s price has fallen in some spots, most notably on DK where is only 7.8k, as he’s had a string of blowout games, which has limited his playing time, culminating with SMU last week where he only saw 1 half of action. This week we should see 4 quarters of Kenny Hill for the first time since he lit up South Carolina for 500 yards. He gets a suspect Arkansas secondary that is 69th in the country against the pass. The price of A&M’s top WR, Malcome Kennedy, has also come down over the past 3 weeks. He makes a great PPR play as he can really rack up the receptions – he is 8th nationally in receptions despite the 3 blowout games. In the 1 competitive game that A&M has played (South Carolina), Kennedy piled up 14 receptions for 137 yards. Against Tech, Arkansas played off in the secondary and kept things in front of them. If they do that that will be good news for Malcome Kennedy owners as A&M will run a lot of bubble screens to him and he’ll rack up those PPR points. The other A&M wide receivers are tougher to predict and Speedy Noil’s status hasn’t been determined, although I’d be surprised if he played. If he’s out again, Seals-Jones and Reynolds are ok GPP plays but I’d much prefer Kennedy in my cash games. The A&M run game is solid but unpredictable as they are RBBC so they are probably best avoided.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Kenny Hill (A&M QB), Malcome Kennedy (A&M WR), Hunter Henry (Ark TE), Alex Collins/Jonathan Williams (Ark RB)
Yellow Lights: – Tra Carson (A&M RB), Ricky Seals Jones/Josh Reynolds (A&M WR)
Red Lights: – Brandon Allen (Ark QB), Arkansas WR
Maryland at Indiana(-4, 69)
This game is the highest over under of the day and presents a couple of top notch plays. Tevin Coleman ran for 200 yards in both of Indiana’s first 2 games and ran for 132 yards on 19 carries against Missouri despite missing the 2nd quarter. He gets a nice matchup against Maryland who is 99th in rush defense allowing 4.17 ypc, and allowed 370 yards rushing to Syracuse last week. Indiana was a pretty balanced team last year but it is pretty clear they are a run first team this year as they have 92 pass attempts to 156 rush attempts. Even with Coleman missing a quarter last week, they ran the ball 50 times and passed 33 times against Missouri. I think Sudfeld and Wynn are ok plays but they don’t have the volume we saw last year and are now just yellow lights for me.
Indiana is once again a defense to target this year as they rank 105th against the pass allowing 287 ypg, and 44th against the run allowing 126 ypg and 3.82 ypc. Maty Mauk didn’t play particularly well last week and still threw for 332 yards against them, and Bowling Green backup QB, James Knapke, threw for 395 yards. CJ Brown looks to be in a really good spot and provides the added dual threat benefit as he is also Maryland’s leading rusher with 49 carries for 244 yards and 4 TDs. His passing can be hit or miss but he’s been better each week so far this season in passing yards (111 in Week 1, 201 in Week 2, 241 in Week 3, and 281 in Week 4). The other carries are split evenly between Ross and Brown so the Maryland RB’s can be ignored. Stefon Diggs (23/286/1) is Brown’s top target and has big play potential. He’s priced pretty cheap around the industry and makes a nice upside play against the porous Indiana defense as well as a good GPP handcuff with CJ Brown.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – CJ Brown (Maryland QB), Tevin Colemean (Indiana RB), Stefon Diggs (Maryland WR),
Yellow Lights: – Nate Sudfeld (Indiana QB), Shane Wynn (Indiana Wr)
Red Lights: – Maryland RB, other Indiana WR
Colorado at Cal (-11, 67)
This game has one of the highest over/unders on the early slate but I’m struggling to find more than a play or two I like. Cal has run the ball 135 times and passed only 98 times which is a big difference from last year. Colorado has been vulnerable on the ground allowing 5.10 ypc and has been ok against the pass ranking 30th nationally (they have only played 1 passing team though). The problem is that Cal is RBBC between Lasco, Muhammed and Rubenzer, who is their backup QB they bring in to run. Lasco is the leading RB on the year with 37/239/2 while Muhammed has 28 carries and Rubenzer 23 carries. Through 3 weeks, no Cal receiver has over 10 receptions and last year’s top WR Harper only has 9/143/2. Bryce Treggs finally showed up last week with 5/119/1 but only has 10 total receptions on the year. Goff’s volume is down but his efficiency is way up as he has 890 passing yards and 10 TDs on only 86 attempts. Rubenzer coming in and stealing snaps hasn’t hurt Goff’s production yet (although it has hurt the WR production) but I worry that it will in the future. Considering the opponent and the high Vegas over under I’ve still got Goff as a green light.
The top play I like in this game and it’s one I really like is Nelson Spruce, who is coming off another great game with 172 receiving yards. Colorado feeds him the ball and this week the matchup is especially good against a Cal pass defense that is 118th in the country. Arizona abused the Cal secondary last week passing for over 500 yards and Zona’s top WR had 13 receptions for 186 yards and 3 TDs. Vegas expects Colorado to be trailing but to keep it fairly close which should keep Spruce active the entire 4 quarters. Liufau, the Colorado QB, has been solid this year and has a great matchup but he’s priced higher than I had hoped at 6.6k and 6.8k. Christian Powell is listed atop Colorado’s depth chart but they still spread carries around and he only got 14 last game. Also, Cal held a potent Arizona rushing attack to only 3.3 ypc last week so I think you can do better than Powell as a value play.
Green Lights: – Nelson Spruce (Colorado WR), Jared Goff (Cal QB)
Yellow Lights: – Chris Harper/Bryce Treggs (Cal WR), Sefo Liufau (Col QB), Daniel Lasco (Cal RB)
Red Lights: – Christian Powell (Col RB)
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Trevon Boykin (TCU)- He’s only in play for me on Fanduel where he is 6.5k and the other top QB’s are 9k+. SMU is terrible and TCU has OU on deck so playing just a half is a legit concern, but he should be able to account for 3 TDs in limited action. However, on DK he is 7.3k and I’d much rather pay up a little for 4 quarters of Kenny Hill (7.8k) or CJ Brown (8.1k). so he’d be GPP only there for me.
Tanner McEvoy (Wisconsin) – He’s another QB in a blowout situation but his risk is built into his price as he is cheap on both sites. We went to this well last week and he came through with 150 rushing yards and a rush TD to go with 1 passing TD. I think he is in play again as he is still cheap, although I prefer him as a GPP play rather than a cash play, but he should be able to pay off his tag on his running ability and 1 big play action pass.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Jameis Winston (FSU), Tyler Murphy (Boston College)
Running Backs
Todd Gurley – I’ve got Gurley as my #1 RB on the early slate. He’s priced as the 3rd highest RB on FD and 4th highest on DK, as he only played 1 quarter against Troy last week. Tennessee is 48th in rush defense allowing 3.87 ypc but is young and undersized along their defensive line (the heaviest Tennessee defensive lineman is 288 pounds) and the UGA rush offense will be the best they have faced. Gurley had a huge week 1 against Clemson, who we saw stuff the FSU rush attack, and then had 20/131/1 against South Carolina, but also had a 50 yard rush TD called back on a hold so it was almost another huge day. Some of the top backs in the early slate are in potential blowouts so Gurley should see more carries than Gordon, Langford and possibly even Conner. He also gives you the added benefit of catching the ball out of the backfield.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin- only on DK where he is 8.4k, GPP only play for me on FD at a very high 11.5k in a blowout spot), James Conner (Pitt), Jeremy Langford (Michigan State – only on DK where he is 6.1), Jon Hilliman (Boston College – GPP value play), Malcolm Brown (Texas – value play)
Wide Receiver
DaeSean Hamilton/Geno Lewis (Penn State) – Hamilton(30/402) and Lewis (25/462/1) are Hackenberg’s favorite targets. They’ve been better targets on a PPR site like DK as they’ve combined for only 1 TD, but I expect that to change this week against Northwestern, who has had issues defending the pass this year allowing 257 ypg (93rd nationally).
Rashad Greene (Florida State) – with Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw no longer in the mix, Rashad Greene has stepped into not only the FSU #1 WR role but one of the best in the country. The only thing that has slowed him down this year has been a blowout against Citadel. He even produced 9 receptions for 135 yards and a TD with FSU’s backup QB against Clemson. Jameis Winston will be back as the starter and will be looking to make up for last week’s embarrassing suspension. Rashad is his security blanket and I expect him to be targeted a ton. NC State has been solid against the pass this year but has only played 1 capable passing team- Old Dominion who threw for over 300 yards. He had 8/137/1 in this matchup last year and I doubt NC State can slow him down this year.
Ty Montgomery (Stanford) – I love the spot Montgomery is in this week. He has had an average season so far with 22/246/2 and his price has fallen to below 7k on FD and DK. However, I think his modest production is due to Stanford’s schedule which has included 2 blowouts against UC Davis and Army, and their 3rd game was against USC, who has a top 20 pass defense. Montgomery is still Stanford’s best playmaker – in addition to being their top WR they also get him at least one carry a game and he has already returned a punt for a TD this year. His drop in price coincides perfectly with his matchup against Washington, who is 107th in the nation against the pass. Vegas expects this to be a close game so Montgomery finally gets that combination of a competive game with a good matchup for the first time this year.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Devin Funchess (Michigan), Tyler Lockett (KSU- only on DK where he is cheap at 5.5k), Tyler Boyd (Pitt), Rashard Higgins (Colorado State), Tony Lippett (Michigan State – GPP only)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Jesse James (Penn State), Sam Arneson (Wisconsin), Nick O’Leary (FSU), Gerald Christian (Louisville), Austin Hooper (Stanford)
Late Slate – FD & DK
Missouri at South Carolina (-6, 63)
Last year South Carolina won a double overtime thriller 27-24 and Vegas expects another close one this year. The South Carolina defense has given up a 50 spot to A&M, 35 to Georgia and allowed 379 total yards to Vandy last week. I wasn’t impressed with Mauk last week but this could be a bounce back spot for him, although I like other QB’s in this slate better. South Carolina is allowing 5.27 ypc but the Mizozu run game is RBBC between Hansbrough and Murphy and very unpredictable. My favorite target for Mizzou is Bud Sasser as he has really started to separate as Mauk’s go to guy and had 12 receptions for 153 yards last week. Mizzou’s 3rd WR Darius White is doubtful for this one and solidifies Sasser and Jimmie Hunt as Mauk’s top 2 targets.
The South Carolina run game looks to be in a good spot against the Missouri run defense. Tevin Coleman had 19/132 last week against Mizzou despite missing an entire quarter, and Kareem Hunt had 148 yards and 3 TDs on only 15 carries. The question is whether Mike Davis is ready to return to last year’s form. Davis was injured to start the year but has had at least 17 carries in the last 3 games so it looks like he is working towards 100%. He underwhelmed again last week vs Vandy so his price dropped even farther on some sites like DK. His backup, Brandon Wilds left last week’s game with an injury, and if he is out then Davis becomes an even safer play. Due to his low price and nice matchup, I think this could be a good buy low spot on Davis (although I said that Week 3 too and it didn’t work out). South Carolina’s QB Dylan Thompson doesn’t get the volume I prefer and isn’t on my radar. The South Carolina pass game as a whole is tough to predict as it varies from a week to week basis and the leading WR could be Pharaoh Cooper, Nick Jones or Shaq Roland.
Green Lights: – Mike Davis (South Carolina RB), Bud Sasser (Mizzou WR)
Yellow Lights: – Maty Mauk (Mizzou QB), Jimmie Hunt (Mizzou #2 WR), Hansbrough/Murphy (Mizzou Rbs), Dylan Thompson (South Carolina QB),
Red Lights: –
Baylor at Iowa St (+23.5, 68)
Due to Baylor playing games on Thursday and Friday nights as well as a ton of cupcakes, we haven’t been able to unleash the Baylor offense on a Saturday game slate yet. Now we get our chance. Strangely enough Iowa State hasn’t allowed a passing TD yet this year…that is going to change very quickly on Saturday night. Last year this game out of hand in Waco, as Petty threw for 343 yards and 2 TDs , Baylor ran for 291 yards and 5 TDs, and Goodley had 11/182/2, in a 71-7 Baylor win. While Vegas doesn’t expect Baylor to score 70 points this year, they do expect Baylor to put a big number on the board. Iowa State is #107th in rush defense allowing 5.14 ypc and 221 ypg, and hasn’t been tested through the air as KSU and North Dakota St were content to keep it on the ground. Bryce Petty and Shock Linwood are easy green lights. The tricky part of this game is trying to figure out the Baylor wide receiver situation. Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman haven’t played this year, but are expected back for this game. In their absence, true freshman KD Cannon (14/471/5) is leading the nation in receiving yards and Jay Lee (19/294/4) has stepped up to lead the team in receptions. Goodley had 71/1300/13 last year and Coleman chipped in with 35/500/2 so they are impactful pieces for Baylor to get back. The question is does Baylor ease Goodley and Coleman back into game work and limit them some? If they don’t ease them back in, how much will they cut in Cannon’s production as he isn’t cheap anymore. I’m not sure where I land on those questions yet and am waiting until the end of week to try to get any more info on how much Goodley and Coleman will play.
The Iowa St backfield is RBBC and can be ignored. Sam B. Richardson has been average at QB and shouldn’t be on your radar outside of maybe as a punt 2nd QB so that you could load up with running backs. If I was targeting any ISU players it would be EJ Bibbs and Allen Lazard. EJ Bibbs is a talented TE who showed signs of life against Iowa with 3/32/1 and is in play as a punt TE. Allen Lazard was a national recruit last year and gets a shot to step as ISU’s #1 WR as they lost their top WR, Bundradge, for the year in Week 2. In Week 3, Lazard was ok against a good Iowa defense with 5 receptions for 53 yards. If you need a min priced punt at your 3rd WR or flex I think he could be ok as ISU should be down and throwing a lot in the 2nd half.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Bryce Petty (Baylor QB), Shock Linwood (Baylor QB), KD Cannon/Antwan Goodley (Baylor WR),
Yellow Lights: – Sam B. Richardson (Iowa St QB), Allen Lazard (ISU WR), EJ Bibbs (ISU TE), Jay Lee/Corey Coleman (Baylor WR)
Red Lights: – Iowa St Rb
Washington State at Utah (-10, 65)
Halliday has already almost thrown for 2,000 yards and is averaging 59 pass attempts a game. Just based on pure volume, he gives you a great floor with high upside. Isiah Myers and Vince Mayle have been Washington State’s top WR, but they get a lot of WR involved, including Dom Williams, River Cracraft and Rickey Galvin. Utah has been solid against the pass this year allowing 210 ypg, good for 40th nationally. However, I don’t think we know what to expect from their secondary yet as they’ve faced Michigan (98th passing O), Fresno St (56th passing O), and 1-AA Idaho St. Last year Washington St won a shootout 49-37 as Halliday threw for 488 yards and 4 touchdowns and Dom Williams had 154 yards and 2 TDs. Vegas has this one as high scoring and expects Washington State to be trailing so Halliday, Myers and Mayle are all green lights for me.
Washington State is 97th nationally in scoring defense allowing 31 ppg. They’ve been exploited on the ground by Rutgers, and through the air by Oregon, which is reflected in their 82nd ranked run defense and 77th ranked pass defense. So far the Utah offense has been run oriented with a 60/40 run pass ratio. They have been in a 2 blowouts so it remains to be seen if that ratio continues. Unfortunately, the Utah backfield is split between Booker and Poole, and their QB, Travis Wilson, is a dual threat QB who gets 8 to 10 carries so I think the Utah RB are too unpredictable to play. Travis Wilson makes for a nice value play as he should see around 25-30 pass attempts and 10 rushes against the weak Washington State defense. Wilson’s top targets are Dres Anderson and Kenneth Scott. I prefer the big play ability of Dres, especially after watching the Washington St secondary give up big plays to Oregon WR Lowe and Allen last week, but Scott is a solid play. Dres got loose in this matchup last year for 5/129/1, while Wilson did not play due to an injury. Westlee Tonga is in play as a punt TE, and last year Utah’s TE had over 100 yards receiving in this matchup.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Travis Wilson (Utah QB), Dres Anderson (Utah WR), Connor Halliday (Wash. St. QB), Vince Mayle/Isaih Myers (Wash. St. Wr)
Yellow Lights: – Westlee Tonga (Utah TE), Dom Williams/River Cracraft (Wash. St. WR), Kenneth Scott (Utah WR)
Red Lights: – Washington State Rb, Bubba Poole/Devontae Booker (Utah RB),
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Tommy Armstrong, Jr (Nebraska) – Armstrong has flown under the radar but has quietly been very good. He’s a dual threat QB who gets about 10 carries a game and has 354 rushing yards to go with 880 passing yards and 11 total TD’s. Vegas likes Nebraska to score 40+ against a very bad Illinois defense. He should get his 80 rushing yards and hit a few big passing plays on Illinois’ 92nd ranked pass defense.
Deshaun Watson (Clemson) – Watson was ranked as the top dual threat QB in the country last year and was named the starter after an impressive showing on the road against one of the best defenses in the country. He came in for Clemson’s 4th series against FSU and never left the game as he threw for 266 yards, and had 12 carries for 30 yards a TD. Now he gets to go home and face a UNC defense that is fresh off giving up a 70 points to East Carolina, and is ranked 123rd in pass defense (325.3ypg). His salary is sitting around 6.5k on both sites which is a great price for a talented QB in a fast paced QB friendly system like Clemson’s. It doesn’t hurt that Vegas likes Clemson to score 35+ in this one.
Everett Golson (Notre Dame) – Right now, Vegas has Notre Dame projected to win this 30-18. The Vegas line is especially useful for a guy like Golson because he is all of Notre Dame’s offense. Notre Dame has 13 touchdowns on the year and he has accounted for 11 of them (7 passing and 4 rushing). He doesn’t carry the biggest upside as ND’s offense isn’t prolific like Baylor’s but in this matchup he makes for a nice safe cash game play at a reasonable tag. You can probably mark him down for 3 total TDs and 300 total yards pretty safely. Last week against Syracuse, Maryland’s dual threat QB CJ Brown accounted for 300 yards and 2 TDs against the Orange.
Running Backs
Ameer Adbullah (Nebraska) – Abdullah’s been great the entire year but took it another level last week against Miami with 229 rushing yards and 3 total TDs. He gets a bad Illinois defense this week that is 81st in rush defense. The Illinois offense might be good enough to keep this within 2 scores heading to the 4th which should keep Nebraska feeding Abdullah. In this matchup last year, he had 225 yards and 2 TDs and should be in for another huge game this year.
Duke Johnson (Miami) – Duke the RB takes on the Duke the football team. The Blue Devils have struggled to stop the run this year as they currently have the 90th ranked run defense allowing 4 ypc despite facing Troy, Elon, Kansas and Tulane – not exactly top rushing attacks. He’s averaging 90 yards a game rushing, but hasn’t had those huge game we saw from him last year… yet. He’s a good receiver out the backfield and is really cheap on DK at only 5.6k.
Javorious Allen (USC) – Oregon St is 30th in rushing ypg but is allowing 4.25 ypc. Sarkisian usually feeds his RB and Allen had 45 carries through his first 2 games for 280 yards. He only had 15 carries against BC as USC didn’t show up and fell behind, but he did have 9 receptions for 118 yards and a TD salvaging his day. Vegas expects USC to be playing from ahead in this one and Allen looks like a good bet to get his volume like he did in his first 2 games.
Wide Receivers
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Nelson Agholor (USC),Jamison Crowder (Duke), Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss), Kenny Bell (Nebraska)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Clive Walford (Miami), Connor Hamlett (Oregon State), Evan Engram (Ole Miss)
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!