CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 7
Welcome back to another edition of CFB “Traffic Light” plays. I’m going to break things down by the early-game slate and the late-game slate. We finally have hit conference play and get some great DFS matchups, as well as some great CFB games in general. We also finally have more uniformity in our game sets, so I’ll hit on every DK and FD game.
There are some differences between the sites’ game sets this week. FD has included Buffalo/Eastern Michigan in their early slate, while DK included Middle Tennessee State/Marshall, Rice/Army, and Tulsa/Temple. Also, the Alabama/Arkansas and Cal/Washington are on the DK early slate but are on the FD late slate. Lastly, the FD late slate included Idaho/Georgia Southern. I’ll analyze the games with the highest projected Vegas over/unders and then list some other green-lights plays from the games I didn’t analyze.
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Early Slate – FanDuel & DraftKings
West Virginia at Texas Tech (+6, 73.5)
This is your game to target in the early slate. It won’t be the phenomenon that was Cal/Washington State, but there figures to be a ton of passing yards in this one. Kliff Kingsbury and Dana Holgorsen are close friends, as they worked together at UH under Kevin Sumlin and Holgerson was on staff at Tech for Kingsbury’s senior year. They employ similar offensive schemes and love to throw the ball all over the field. Last year Texas Tech won 37-27, as Davis Webb threw for 462 yards and two TDs. Webb injured his non-throwing shoulder late in the game against Oklahoma State, but was able to play last week against Kansas State. Webb can put up some monster passing yards but the worry with him is turnovers as he had 4 INTs last game and already has 10 on the year.
West Virginia has been solid against the pass, ranking 21st in the country, but Tech will get their passing yards. Jakeem Grant (39/473/4) is my favorite play for Tech in this one and is a great play on PPR sites. He started the year slowly but has come on strong, scoring a TD in each of the last three games. Bradley Marquez (30/382/6) started the year strong with five TDs in his first two games, but has only scored once since, as Grant has emerged as the true number one WR. The Texas Tech RB situation is a cluster, as DeAndre Washington had a good first game but hasn’t received more than 13 carries since the opener. He can be ignored.
I targeted the Tech defense last week and they coughed up big days to Jake Waters and the KSU WRs. Tech is 121st against the run allowing 4.82 YPC and 257 YPG, as they got gashed in their first three games and fired their DC. Their new DC has been more aggressive with run blitzes and loading the box, so their run defense has improved from putrid to just bad over the last two games. However, they’ve left their corners in single coverage and they’ve been torched through the air, allowing 660 passing yards and eight TDs combined against Oklahoma State and Kansas State. The Tech front seven struggles to contain the run and can’t generate a pass rush without blitzing, and now gets a WVU offense that has put up a lot of points on everyone, including Alabama and OU.
Tech is allowing 40 PPG and Vegas has WVU predicted to hit 40 points in this one. It looks like an incredible spot for Clint Trickett (1902 passing yards and 10 TDs) and the leading receiver in the nation, Kevin White (48/765/4). White is easily the top WR play of the day, but don’t overlook his counterpart, Mario Alford (32/387/4). Tech coughed up big days to both KSU WRs, Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton, and Alford is very explosive, as he has already returned two kickoffs for TDs. I don’t expect Tech to be as aggressive loading the box because they’ll get scorched by White and Alford, so that should leave some nice running room for Rushel Shell. Shell is averaging 20 carries per game in the past three games, and has scored a TD in each of the last four games. My guess is he makes it five in a row with a TD.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Clint Trickett (WVU QB), Kevin White & Mario Alford (WV WR), Rushel Shell (WV RB), Davis Webb (TT QB), Jakeem Grant (TT WR)
Yellow Lights: – Bradley Marquez (TT WR)
Red Lights: – TT RB
Oregon at UCLA (+2.5, 69)
Vegas has this one 36 to 33 Oregon, so there should be some points. This game features probably the two best dual-threat QBs in the country in Brett Hundley and Marcus Mariota. Unfortunately, it also features two offensive lines that seem intent on getting their QBs killed.
Hundley has had two great games, two bad games and was injured in the other game. It really comes down to whether his OL can protect him as they allowed TEN sacks last week against Utah. If they can, he’ll put up some big numbers against a porous Oregon secondary that is 119th against the pass allowing 310 YPG. He has a really nice tag on DK (7.4k), so that is where I tend to find myself taking him this week, as he is still pretty pricey at 9.6k on FD. His top target at WR is Jordan Payton (31/491/3). Paul Perkins is the guy at RB for UCLA with 540 rushing yards and three TDs. He’s not my first choice but is a decent play against an Oregon defense that is 56th in rush defense, allowing 3.84 YPC.
Mariota is in the same boat as Hundley with his OL. It’s a tough decision on Mariota this week, as the UCLA defense has been subpar, ranking 64th in rush defense by allowing 3.97 YPC. The Bruins also are 103rd against the pass, allowing 271 YPG. However, the Oregon OL has been decimated by injuries and has allowed 12 sacks in the past two games, including allowing seven sacks to the awful Washington State defense. I was able to watch some of Thursday night’s loss to Arizona and came away questioning whether Mariota was worth his tag going forward due to his OL play. That point really got driven home late Saturday night, as I watched Cal destroy Washington State’s defense and put up 60 points. Oregon only scored 38 against that same defense a week earlier.
This just hasn’t been the same Oregon offensive machine that we are used to seeing where they were routinely putting up 50-point games. Through five games last year, Mariota already had two 100 yard rushing games and eight rushing TDs. This year he hasn’t topped 71 rushing yards and only has three rushing TDs. He had 14 passing TDs through five games last year, and is at 15 passing TDs this year, so the passing game is basically a wash, but his running is way down. Also Scott Frost, Oregon’s OC, suggested that Mariota wasn’t 100% against Arizona, so he could be dealing with an injury, as he only had nine carries for negative one yards in that game. This is a huge game for these two teams with the loser likely out of the playoff race. I can see the thought process of Mariota putting the team on his shoulders because he returned for a chance at a championship. If this was last year, it’s something I could get on board with, but I’m just not sold that his OL is going to allow him to do that.
If I’m spending high dollars on a player this week, I find myself spending up at RB for Gordon or Gurley instead of at QB, but Mariota is a guy who is always in play. This week I think he has moved to more of a GPP play for me until I see some improvement from that OL and the Oregon offense start to look like the machine they were the previous two years. I’ll definitely have him on some GPP teams but will look elsewhere for 50/50. Oregon’s top two WRs are Devon Allen (19/377/6) and Keanon Lowe (17/266/4), who are cheaper alternatives to get a piece of the Oregon offense if you don’t want to pay up for Mariota. At RB, Byron Marshall has been moved to WR and has 24 receptions for 299 yards and two TDs, but only has 24 carries on the year. Royce Freeman is the starter at RB with 67 carries for 346 rushing yards and five TDs. Thomas Tyner also sees some action with 50 carries for 221 yards and one TD. The Oregon OL play has also affected the Oregon RB, so they’re ok plays but not guys I’m actively targeting.
Green Lights: – Brett Hundley (UCLA QB), Marcus Mariota (Oregon QB), Jordan Payton (UCLA WR), Devon Allen (Oregon WR)
Yellow Lights: – Paul Perkins (UCLA RB), Royce Freeman (Oregon RB), Keanon Lowe (Oregon WR), Byron Marshall (Oregon RB)
Red Lights: – N/A
Auburn at Mississippi State (+2.5, 63)
We get an incredible matchup of two top five teams in the country. Vegas likes this one to be relatively high scoring. However, outside of targeting MSU’s pass defense, these are two defenses I have typically avoided. Last year Auburn won 24-20 as Nick Marshall threw for 339 yards and two TDs, while Dak Prescott had 346 yards of total offense and two TDs. Also, Mississippi State held Auburn to 3.3 YPC.
MSU was really impressive last week in a beatdown on my Ags, and Prescott looks to have taken the next step as a QB. All that being said, I’ll most likely be fading Prescott, as I’m choosing to spend my salary at RB this week. I don’t like the matchup against Auburn and Prescott is the highest priced QB on the board. I think Prescott could see another three total TD day, but I don’t see the upside at his elevated price against an Auburn defense that is 13th in rush defense and 32nd in passing defense. Due to Auburn’s strong run defense, I’m off of Josh Robinson this week too despite the fact that he also has looked great this year. The only MSU play I’m really looking at is De’runnya Wilson IF Jameon Lewis is ruled out. If Lewis plays, I’ll probably just avoid the Mississippi State offense and just watch a great game that hopefully doesn’t turn into a shootout. Mississippi State is 11th against the run allowing only 2.91 YPC and controlled the Auburn run game last year. For that reason, I’ll be avoiding Cameron Artis-Payne.
I don’t think Nick Marshall will have the success running that he typically does, but he gets a weak MSU secondary that is 123rd in the country against the pass allowing 328 YPG. I think he should have a nice day throwing the ball, and whatever he gives you on the ground is gravy. His top two targets are D’haquille (Duke) Williams and Sammie Coates.
Duke is AU’s leading WR with 25 receptions for 385 yards and three TDs, and was rated the number one JUCO WR in the country last year. I think he is a sneaky option to have a big day against the MSU secondary, since Auburn might be forced to pass more in this one with MSU’s stout front seven. He’s also had his two biggest games in Auburn’s most competitive games, as he had nine receptions for 154 yards and a TD against Arkansas, and eight receptions for 100 yards and a TD against Kansas State. Sammie Coates was the top WR last year, but has been quiet this year with the emergence of Williams. He did show some signs of life last week against LSU with four receptions for 144 yards and a TD. He’d be a GPP only play for me. Vegas tends to like this game more than me, so feel free to work some of these guys in as Vegas usually knows best.
Green Lights: – Nick Marshall (Auburn QB), D’haquille Williams (Auburn WR)
Yellow Lights: – Dak Prescott (MSU QB), Josh Robinson (MSU RB), Cameron Artis Payne (AU RB), Jameon Lewis/De’runnya Wilson (MSU WR- bump up Wilson if Lewis out), Sammie Coates (AU WR), CJ Uzomah (AU WR)
Red Lights: – N/A
Other Green Lights: – N/A
Quarterbacks
Everett Golson (Notre Dame) – Golson makes a great cash-game play this week because he is Notre Dame’s entire offense, and they are projected to score 35+ points in this one. He’s coming off of a very tough matchup against Stanford, but now gets a reeling UNC defense that is 92nd against the run, 121st against the pass, and 121st in scoring defense allowing 42 PPG. Notre Dame has scored 19 TDs on the season and Golson has accounted for an incredible 17 of them, including four rushing TDs. His floor is probably three TDs and 300 yards of total offense with upside for much more against one of the worst defenses in the country.
Rakeem Cato (Marshall- game only on DK) – Here we go again. Is this finally the week we see a big week from Cato? There is another high Vegas total of 73.5 and Marshall is projected to score almost 50 points. However, Marshall is favored by 22.5 and that has been a problem this year, as they’ve run out to leads and then pounded the run. The Marshall run/pass ratio now sits at 144 passes to 216 runs, and they’ve been very good on defense. It might be time to just accept that this year Cato won’t see the volume that he did in the past due to Marshall’s improved run game and defense. That being said, his price dropped to 8.1k on DK, and he has shown that big game upside. I think he makes a great GPP play but prefer other QBs in his price range like Golson, Winston, and Trickett for 50/50 and H2H.
Jameis Winston (FSU) – Winston could be without his best WR, Rashad Greene, but FSU is also likely to be without their top RB, Karlos Williams, so Winston will probably have to shoulder more of the load against a below average Syracuse defense that is 70th in the country against the pass allowing 240 YPG.
Sam B. Richardson (Iowa State) –He gets a dream matchup against Toledo and opens up a lot of cap room, especially on DK at only 5.3k, to fit a Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley. Toledo is 122nd in passing defense by allowing 325 YPG. They’ve been ripped apart when they’ve ventured outside the MAC, as Gunner Kiel had 418 passing yards and six TDs and Maty Mauk had 325 passing yards and six total TDs. Richardson isn’t Kiel or Mauk, but he can do enough damage against this terrible defense to pay off his meager salary. He has at least 200 passing yards and two TDs in each of his last three games, and also gets 10 carries a game or so. He had over 300 total yards and three TDs against Baylor and I think those number are definitely in reach again this week, with Iowa State projected to score 31 points or so.
Trevon Boykin (TCU) – He’s too expensive for my taste on DK, but is still too cheap on FD at only 6.8k. Two weeks ago, Baylor struggled with ISU’s S. B. Richardson, allowing him to rush for 99 yards and throw for 200 yards. Boykin presents that same dual threat ability but with a lot more talent. He is TCU’s leading rusher in both carries and yards with 51 carries for 260 yards and three TDs, and he has really improved his passing this year. He proved himself to me last week against OU, when he accounted for almost 400 yards of total offense against what was supposed to be a tough OU defense.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – PJ Walker (Temple – only available on DK)
Running Back
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) – Wisconsin is a mess, but Melvin Gordon has been incredible his last three games, rushing for 253, 181, and 258 yards with eight TDs. He gets an Illinois defense that is brutal against the run, ranking 119th nationally and allowing 4.77 YPC and 249.5 YPG. Last year he had 17 carries for 142 yards and 3 TDs while sharing time with James White, as Wisconsin rushed for 289 yards as a team. Vegas likes Wisconsin to win this comfortably, but Wisconsin’s QB play has been horrible so if this turns into a blowout it will be because of Gordon. Also, Illinois gave up runs of 54, 62, 53, and 44 last week to Purdue, and Gordon is about explosive as they come. Look for him to break off multiple huge runs and top 200 yards again. The only worry with Gordon is fitting him in on FD, as his price is really high.
Todd Gurley (Georgia) –
Editor’s note: Gurley has been indefinitely suspended for a suspected violation of NCAA rules
I slightly prefer Gordon but really Gordon and Gurley are 1A and 1B for me this week. This is a HUGE game for Georgia’s SEC East title hopes and it’s on the road, so I expect them to lean on Gurley heavily. Missouri is 57th against the run, allowing 3.71 YPC and 144.6 YPG, but those numbers are inflated by the games against South Dakota State and UCF. Mike Davis had 22 carries for 104 yards and TD, Tevin Coleman had 19 carries for 132 yards and a TD despite missing the entire second quarter, and Kareem Hunt had 15 carries for 148 yards and three TDs. In other words, good backs have had lots of success against Missouri this year, and now they get arguably the best RB in the country. Gurley is averaging 8.2 YPC and has only been slowed by blowouts.
Duke Johnson (Miami) – Duke is a great mid-range play, as he has had over 150 total yards in each of his last three games. Cincinnati is getting killed on the ground, allowing 4.71 YPC and 255 YPG (120th in the country). The only thing really holding Duke back has been a lack of touches, as he only got 17 last week. If he gets 25 touches in this one, he’ll put up a huge day.
Anthone Taylor (Buffalo) – Taylor won a lot of people money last week, as he ran for 219 yards and three TDs on 36 carries against Bowling Green. He’s gone for over 200 yards in his last two games and gets a ton of volume, as he has 36 carries in each of his last two games and 28 carries the week prior to those games. He’s only available on FD but is once against too cheap. Eastern Michigan has been horrible against the run for a few years running and this year is no different — they’re ranked 114th in rush defense, allowing 5.6 YPC and 220 YPG.
Jon Hilliman (BC) – Hilliman is a true freshman who didn’t take over as starting RB until Week Three. Those first two weeks are keeping his price down, as he is still only 5k on DK and 5.9 on FD. Since taking over as starter he has scored two TDs in each game and is averaging 22 carries for over 100 YPG. He gets a favorable matchup against NC State, who is 77th against the run allowing 4.29 YPC and 171 YPG. He’s a great option as a cheap RB2.
FSU RBs – Keep an eye on what happens with the FSU RB situation this week as starter, Karlos Williams, is expected to miss the game against Syracuse. It looks like Mario Pender would get the start, but it could RBBC between him, heralded true freshman Dalvin Cook, and Ryan Green. Monitor the situation to see if it looks like one RB will get the bulk of the carries, especially since Pender is cheap.
Terry Swanson/Kareem Hunt (Toledo) – Kareem Hunt missed last week’s game and is listed as questionable for their game against ISU. Hunt is a great back and is still pretty expensive, but his backup, Terry Swanson, is cheap. ISU really struggles against the run, allowing 4.75 YPC and 207 YPG. Last week, Swanson had 19 carries for 172 yards and a TD against Western Michigan in Hunt’s absence.
Devon Johnson – The bruising tight end-turned-RB has scored a TD in every game this year and is averaging almost 120 rushing YPG. While people were eyeing Rakeem Cato last week, myself included, Johnson was the guy to own as he went off for 198 yards and three TDs. Marshall has been a run heavy team this year and they are expected to score 48/49 points against a very bad Middle Tennessee State defense that is 68th against the run, allowing 4.30 YPC. Johnson looks like a lock for a minimum of 100 yards and a TD in this one.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – David Cobb (Minnesota), Desmond Roland (Oklahoma State), Jeremy Langford (Michigan State), Samaje Perine (OU), Mark Weisman (Iowa), TJ Yeldon/Derrick Henry (Alabama – FD Late slate, DK early slate)
Wide Receiver
William Fuller (Notre Dame) – Fuller has been Golson’s top target and gets a great matchup against UNC’s 121st ranked pass defense. He had a rough week against Stanford, but prior to that had a TD in each of ND’s first four games. He’s a nice mid-range WR play, especially on DK. There is an outside chance that Davaris Daniels could be reinstated but I don’t expect to eat into Fuller’s production this week, since Daniels hasn’t been able to practice.
Tony Lippett (Michigan State) – Purdue has the 105th ranked passing defense, allowing 273 YPG, and Lippett has been great this year. For some reason he is still under 7k on FD. He already has 25 receptions for 525 yards and seven TDs this year and has scored at least one TD in every game. Lippett has also scored multiple TDs three times.
Jesus Wilson (FSU) – This play is dependent on Rashad Greene’s availability. Wilson is FSU’s second-leading WR with 17 receptions for 240 yards and three TDs despite being suspended for FSU’s first game. He’s min price on FD, so if Greene is out then he provides some nice salary relief.
Tommy Shuler (Marshall) – He finally had a solid game last week with 9 receptions for 81 yards and a TD despite Marshall blowing out Old Dominion and not passing all that much. He was a great PPR guy the last two years with over 100 receptions in each year. I expect him to build on last week’s game, and now he gets to face Middle Tennessee State who is 113rd against the pass allowing 292 YPG.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Jordan Taylor (Rice – only on DK), Bud Sasser (Missouri), Devante Parker (Louisville- if cheap), Amari Cooper (on FD late slate, but DK early slate), Keevan Lucas (Tulsa – only available on DK), Jamison Crowder (Duke), Jalen Fitzpatrick (Temple – only available on DK)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – EJ Bibbs (Iowa State), Nick O’Leary (FSU), Clive Walford (Miami), Gerald Christian (Louisville), Eric Frohnapfel (Marshall), Ben Koyack (Notre Dame), Dan Vitale (Northwestern)
Early Slate – FanDuel & DraftKings
Washington at California (-3.5, 71.5)
This game is in the late slate on FD but included in the early slate on DK. Vegas likes there to be a lot of points in this one, as both teams have been terrible defending the pass this year.
Washington’s QB, Cyler Miles, isn’t a high volume passer — he averages about 25 pass attempts per game and 150 passing YPG — but he also gets about 10 to 11 carries per game. He’s a guy you only consider in the very best of spots. However, this looks to be a prime spot as Cal has allowed a staggering 520, 449 and 734 passing yards and 18 TDs in their last three games, and ranks dead last in pass defense by allowing 427.8 YPG. Miles also gives the added dual-threat ability, as he has three rushing TDs on the year. Even with the great matchup I don’t think Miles is a must-play. I think he is a much better play on FD, as he is included in the late slate which is thin at QB, as opposed to DK, where he is included in the early slate, which is loaded at QB. Lavon Coleman is the leading rusher with 344 yards and averages about 16 carries per game, but he doesn’t get the goal-line work — he only has one TD on the year.
John Ross is the leading receiver with 240 yards on only nine receptions. He is a big-play guy only that is boom or bust, but, as we saw last week, the Cal secondary is pretty adept at giving up the big play. Jaydon Mickens is probably the safest skill position guy to target on Washington. He has 23 receptions for 232 yards and one TD, and has scored a TD in each of the last two games. He went off last year against Cal with six receptions for 180 yards and two TDs. It’s a game I distinctly remember because I was sitting in first in the DraftStreet (RIP) Big Score with one game left to be played… the Cal/Washington game. Of course DB730 just had to go and recommend Mickens that week. Three people chased me down and I finished in fourth…thanks for that one Dan!
Washington also has a porous pass defense, ranking 102nd in the country by allowing 268.8 YPG. Last year, Jared Goff threw for 336 yards and one TD in this matchup, and he is on fire coming into this game. His backup, Luke Rubenzer, had been stealing some reps as a running QB but Rubenzer has been minimized in conference play. Goff has been great with 527 passing yards and five TDs last week, and 458 yards and seven TDs the week prior. He’s definitely in play against the suspect Washington secondary. Daniel Lasco has emerged as the lead Cal RB. He only had 11 carries last week, but his backup only got two carries, and they got him involved in the passing game with five receptions for 42 yards and a TD. The Cal WR have been tough to read this year, but Bryce Treggs has started to come around by scoring a TD in each of his past three games, including 10 receptions for 120 yards and two TDs last week. Also, Chris Harper finally had a decent game with six receptions for 92 yards.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Cyler Miles (Washington QB), Jaydon Mickens (Washington WR), Jared Goff (Cal QB), Daniel Lasco (Cal RB)
Yellow Lights: – John Ross (Washington WR), Chris Harper/Bryce Treggs (Cal WR)
Red Lights: – N/A
Old Dominion at UTEP (-3, 70.5)
This is a game between two schools that are not well known, but do not overlook it as it has a high Vegas total and is on both DK and FD. Aaron Jones is the guy to target on UTEP. His price is tough to stomach on DK but he is a great bargain on FD. He started off the year on a tear with seven TDs in his first three games and rushed for 237, 144 and 168 yards. He was shut down by a very tough Kansas State defense in Week 4, and Louisiana Tech stacked the box in Week 5 and blew UTEP out 55-3. Even if Old Dominion stacks the box I don’t think they can slow Jones. In the past three weeks, the ODU defense allowed 280 rushing yards to Middle Tennessee State (4.9 YPC), 284 rushing yards and three TDs to Rice (5.3 YPC), and 354 rushing yards and five TDs to Marshall (7.1 YPC). The UTEP pass offense is really struggling, as Jameill Showers has been below 150 passing yards in four of his five games. Also, they have opened up the competition at WR, so I’ll be avoiding the UTEP passing game.
Taylor Heinicke, the ODU QB, was beyond awful against Marshall last week and that has been a microcosm of his season. He flashes big games and then throws out complete duds. Here are his last four games fantasy totals on FD: 6.88, 46.8, 29.08, 4.8. UTEP is 53rd in passing defense allowing 226 YPG, and 115th in rushing defense, allowing 6.46 YPC and 234 YPG. The ODU offense looks to be in a good spot, so this should be a bounce-back spot for Heinicke, who threw for over 4,000 yards last year. However, I like him more as a GPP play because when he is bad he is really really bad and can tank your cash lineups, since he isn’t cheap. Gerard Johnson is the top ODU RB on the year but his carries have been sporadic and he only has one rushing TD on the year. Last week, Johnson and backup Ray Lawry split carries with 16 each. If Heinicke bounces back, then his top two WR, Antonio Vaughan (30/409/7) and Zach Pascal (34/460/4), should have good games.
Green Lights: – Aaron Jones (UTEP RB), Taylor Heinicke (ODU QB- GPP only), Antonio Vaughan/Zach Pascal
Yellow Lights: – Nathan Jeffery (UTEP backup RB), Gerard Johnson (ODU RB)
Red Lights: – Jameill Showers (UTEP QB), UTEP WR
Other Green Lights: N/A
Quarterbacks
Kevin Ellison (Georgia Southern – only available on FD) – Ellison has rushed for at least 96 yards in each game, except for a 83-9 blowout of Savannah State, and has scored a rushing TD in each of his last four games. You’re not going to get much passing yards out of him, as Georgia Southern is a spread option team. He’s been even better in his last two games, rushing for over 150 yards in both. Now he gets to face Idaho, who is 122nd against the run allowing 6.31 YPC and 257.6 YPG. Ellison and Georgia Southern should run wild in this one.
Shane Carden (East Carolina) – The late slate is thin at the QB position, especially on DK where Goff and Miles aren’t in the late slate. Carden is the most expensive but is also the surest thing in this slate. South Florida is 43rd in passing defense by allowing 220 YPG, but that is because they haven’t played any teams with a competent passing attack (they’ve faced Western Carolina, Maryland, NC State, Wisconsin, and UCONN). Jacoby Brissett threw for 266 yards against them and isn’t on the same planet as Carden as a passer. Carden’s already thrown for 1,879 yards and 15 TDs on the season and has rushed for three more TDs in only five games.
Cody Fajardo (Nevada) – Fajardo is a dual-threat QB who flashed his upside with 42 fantasy points against Boise State last week. He gets another prime matchup against Colorado State, who is 75th against the pass and 100th against the run.
Bo Wallace (Ole Miss) – The A&M defense is starting to look like last year’s terrible defense, which is great news for Wallace, but awful news for my liver. He was great in their upset win over Alabama, throwing for three TDs and not turning the ball over, and added 32 rushing yards. On paper, this looks like a great spot for him. However, I’m always scared that when I roster Bo Wallace, the bad version “Bro” Wallace will show up instead, as he’s followed up great games with complete duds. He’s been inconsistent his entire career and I worry that this could be a letdown spot on the road, as A&M is actually favored. That is probably the A&M fan in me being hopeful, but he has burned me in some spots before, so I’ll be playing him in my GPP lineups, while looking elsewhere for 50/50s.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Darrell Garretson (Utah State), Garrett Grayson (Colorado State- double check his health as his shoulder is banged up)
Running Backs
Sam Craft (Memphis) – He’s cheap on both DK and FD and is actually listed as a WR on FD. This play depends on whether Brandon Hayes plays or not. Memphis’ other RB Doroland Dorceus is out for the year, and Hayes missed last week’s game. As a result, Craft saw an incredible 38 carries for 170 yards and a TD. If Hayes is out, you can’t overlook Craft’s volume at his cheap tag.
Javorius Allen (USC) – Steve Sarkisian has been known to feed his RB and Javorious Allen has been the beneficiary this year. He gets at least 25 touches a game and has had at least four receptions in each of the last three games, which is a nice boost on DK. Arizona is middle of the pack against the run, allowing 3.55 YPC and 137 YPG. This is a possible letdown spot for Arizona coming off of their huge win against Oregon, and Vegas likes there to be some scoring with a 68 over/under.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – TJ Yeldon/Derrick Henry (Alabama – FD Late slate, DK early slate), Matt Breida/Alfred Ramsby (Georgia Southern), Matt Jones (Florida), Jacobi Owens (Air Force), Dee Hart (Colorado State – GPP)
Wide Receivers
Greg Ward, Jr. (Houston) – He’s the new UH starting QB, but I have him listed at WR because that is where his available on FD for minimum price. He is listed as a QB on DK and I wouldn’t consider him there. I watched UH last week and told myself I wouldn’t roster a UH player for the rest of the yearm as the offense was just brutal. O’Korn was awful, the OL was bad, and receivers were dropping balls. Ward isn’t going to improve the passing attack, as his passing is pretty suspect, but he does bring some athleticism to the table. If you need a minimum salary WR on FD, I think he is your guy, but I don’t think he is a must-play, as the Memphis defense has been solid this year. They only allowed 14 points to Cincinnati last week, and 24 to Ole Miss the week prior. Those offenses are light years ahead of UH this year. Vegas likes UH to score 21 points, so Ward should be in a good spot to pay off his 4.5k tag on FD with a TD or two. However, I can definitely envision UH being shut down again, and Ward passing for 120 yards and no TDs and only getting 30 rushing yards.
Rashard Higgins (Colorado State) – He’s your top option in this slate along with Justin Hardy. He’s gone bonkers over his last four games, scoring 28.3, 36.7, 24.8, and 50.8 fantasy points on DK. Next up is the 117th rated Nevada passing defense that allows 302 YPG.
Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss) – Treadwell has scored in each of his past two games and gets to face an A&M secondary that was really bad last week. He had eight receptions for 77 yards and two TDs last year against A&M, and carries a nice tag at under 7k on both sites.
Nelson Agholor (USC) – Agholor has a nice tag on both sites at 6.3k on DK and 6.8k on FD. The Arizona defense is most vulnerable to the pass, as they rank 116th in pass defense by allowing 297 YPG. Agholor is USC’s best WR, and despite a quiet Week Five, he has had at least nine receptions in three of USC’s last four games.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Hunter Sharp (Utah State), Justin Hardy (East Carolina), Joshua McClain (Idaho), Speedy Noil/Josh Reynolds (A&M- GPP only)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Jonnu Smith (FIU), Jarred Gipson (Nevada), Evan Engram (Ole Miss), Alan Cross (Memphis), Justin Podrabsky (Idaho), OJ Howard (Alabama)
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!