CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 8
Welcome back to CFB Week 8’s edition of CFB “Traffic Lights” plays. I’m going to break things down by the early game slate and the late game slate.
There are only minor differences between the sites’ game sets this week. FD has included Western Michigan/Bowling Green in their early slate, which has a high Vegas total of 70. Also, the Marshall/Florida International and Colorado/USC games are on the DK early slate, but are on the FD late slate. Lastly, the FD late slate included Southern Miss/North Texas and Georgia State/South Alabama. I’ll hit on all of the games except for the two additional games on the FD late slate as I haven’t had time to get to those games yet.
I’ll analyze the games with the highest projected Vegas totals and then list some other green lights plays from the games I didn’t analyze.
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Early Slate – FD & DK
Baylor at West Virginia (+8, 80)
The last time Baylor and West Virginia met in Morgantown the DFS world rejoiced as West Virginia won an incredible shootout 70-63. Geno Smith threw for over 600 yards and eight TDs, while Baylor threw for over 500 yards and five TDs. Obviously, you won’t see 133 points go up on the scoreboard, but there will be lots of points, especially, from Baylor, as Vegas has this total as the highest of the day.
Baylor is currently ranked #15 in rush defense and #22 in rush defense. However, I wouldn’t be scared away by those rankings as Baylor had faced really poor offenses up until last week. TCU racked up 485 yards of total offense against Baylor last week so West Virginia should see some success here. Vegas agrees as they have WVU projected to score five TDs. Clint Trickett is priced a little too high for my liking on DK and FD. However, if he is priced down on other sites I think he is a solid play. Following last week’s disappointing game, a lot of people will ignore him so his ownership will be down this week. Kevin White is leading the nation in receiving yards as he has over 100 receiving yards in every game, and double digit receptions in four of his last five games. You’re going to have to work to fit him in as he his super pricey, but he should be worth it as West Virginia should be trailing throughout and forced to throw.
Like Trickett, a lot of people (myself included) were burned by Mario Alford last week so he could also be under owned this week. I like him as a GPP play as he is very explosive, but is a boom or bust play. Last week was a bust, but he had big weeks in Week 4 and 5 with over 100 yards receiving in both and three total TDs. Also, Baylor really struggled with a similar player in TCU’s big play WR, Kolby Listenbee, allowing four receptions for 146 yards and a TD. You also get the added bonus of kick returns with Alford as he already has two return TDs on the year, and should get lots of kick return opportunities this week. West Virginia is known to be a passing team but Rushel Shell has been rock solid in the last few weeks. He has at least 21 carries in three of his last four games and has scored in each of his last five games. Along with Alford, Shell presents the cheaper avenue to get a piece of the WVU offense.
If you want to pay up at QB then Bryce Petty should be your top option along with Brett Hundley for the early slate. He just lit up a tough TCU defense for 510 passing yards and six TDs. He also gives you some dual threat ability with three rushing TDs on the year and double digit carries in his last two games. West Virginia is 42nd in pass defense but gave up 348 passing yards and three TDs to Texas Tech’s Davis Webb last week. Tech is a good offensive team, but they aren’t on Baylor’s level so expect another huge day from Petty. Petty’s top target is Antwan Goodley. Goodley has only played in three games this year but already has three TDs and has been over 100 yards in two of the three games. Corey Coleman also returned from injury three games ago and has scored a TD in every game since returning and gone over 100 yards receiving twice. Goodley’s your top target for the Baylor WR, but Corey Coleman is a close 2nd. With the return of Goodley and Coleman to Baylor’s offense, KD Cannon has seen his production plummet. Baylor got him back involved last week with six receptions for 124 yards and a TD though so I think he makes a nice GPP play. The price difference between Cannon and Coleman/Goodley isn’t all that much so I’d rather pay up for Goodley or Coleman in 50/50’s and H2H though. Don’t forget about the Baylor running game as Shock Linwood has 57 carries over his last two games for 326 rushing yards. However, he only has one rushing TD over the past two weeks so his price is still manageable. With that type of volume he should hit a multi-TD game again soon, like he did in both Weeks 2 and 3. If you’re playing Linwood on DK don’t expect any receptions though as he only has three on the year. Baylor doesn’t play the check down to the RB game as they’re looking to hit the defense with vertical routes down the field.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Clint Trickett (WVU QB), Kevin White (WVU WR), Bryce Petty (Baylor QB), Shock Linwood (Baylor RB), Antwan Goodley/Corey Coleman (Baylor WR), Rushel Shell (WV RB)
Yellow Lights: – Mario Alford (WV WR), KD Cannon (Baylor WR)
Red Lights: – None
UCLA at California (+7, 74.5)
If Brett Hundley’s matchup didn’t jump off the page for you then you haven’t been paying enough attention this year. This is one is easy. Brett Hundley is really good and the Cal pass defense is really really bad. He threw for 410 yards and three TDs in this matchup last year, and should have no problem putting up another huge number this year. Cal is dead last in the country in pass defense allowing an insane 402 passing YPG. He’s right there with Petty as the top QB option in this slate. You don’t need to pair him up with a UCLA WR, as he will spread it around, but if you do then look to Jordan Payton (37/552/5) as the top option. Devin Fuller is UCLA’s number two WR with 26 receptions for 227 yards and one TD. At RB, Paul Perkins has been on a roll with over 100 yards in three of his last four games, including 187 rushing yards last week against Oregon. However, Cal is better against the run ranking 26th in the country in YPG and allowing 3.50 YPC.
The Cal offense was rolling along but got shut down last week against Washington. This is a nice bounce back spot for Goff against UCLA’s 94th ranked pass defense which allows 260 YPG. Cal doesn’t target any particular WR to get the ball to, but Bryce Treggs has strung together a string of nice games with 17 receptions in his last two games. He also has scored a TD in four of Cal’s six games this year. Daniel Lasco is an OK option at RB as he has taken over the lead Cal RB job, and UCLA is below average against the run allowing 4.37 YPC. You can expect probably no more than 18 carries but he gets involved in the pass game as he has 11 receptions in his last two games so he makes for a nice PPR play on DK.
Green Lights: – Brett Hundley (UCLA QB), Jordan Payton (UCLA WR), Jared Goff (Cal)
Yellow Lights: – Paul Perkins (UCLA RB), Devin Fuller (UCLA WR), Bryce Treggs (Cal WR), Daniel Lasco (Cal RB)
Red Lights: – None
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
JT Barrett (Ohio State) – I’ve seen a lot of people high on Barrett this week and he makes for a great play against the weak Rutgers secondary. Rutgers is the 96th ranked pass defense allowing 261 YPG and has really only played one good passing team so far (Washington State). After some early season struggles, Barrett has really settled in and has accounted for 15 TDs over his last three games. He gives you dual threat ability with over 70 rushing yards in each of his last two games and, despite his recent tear, his price really hasn’t gone up very much.
Gunner Kiel (Cincinnati) – I think there are four QBs above the rest in the early slate: Petty, Hundley, Barrett and Gunner Kiel. You’ll want to double check his health status as he is banged up, but he did play last week against Miami. As long as his health checks out, he makes for a great play. Cincinnati is only 14 point favorites due to their terrible defense so Kiel should see the field into the 4th quarter. As we saw with Trevon Boykin and Shane Carden, who both put up huge numbers against SMU, if a QB gets three full quarters of action against SMU then a monster fantasy day is likely coming.
Trevone Boykin (TCU) – This is a play on FD only as they just refuse to raise Boykin’s price. He’s still sitting at just 7k and gets Oklahoma State’s 101st ranked pass defense this week. There was a wild rumor going around Wednesday morning that he had wrist surgery, but from everything I have seen that rumor was false and he was reported to have practiced with the team.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Davis Webb (Texas Tech)
Running Backs
Jarvion Franklin (Western Michigan) – This is a FD only game so don’t overlook Franklin as he is the top RB option in the early slate there. Bowling Green is 110th in the country in rush defense allowing 218 YPG and is allowing 5.15 YPC. Franklin is only a freshman but leads the nation in rushing TDs with 15, including four games with three rushing TDs. Vegas expects this game to be high scoring so expect another multi-TD game from Franklin.
David Cobb (Minnesota) – Cobb is a great 50/50 play because you know the volume will be there. He has at least 30 carries in each of his last three games, and Purdue is below average against the run allowing 157.9 YPG and 4.30 YPC. Vegas has Minnesota as 12.5 point favorites and actually predicts them to score 30 points, which is a lot for Minnesota. Taking all that into account, this looks like a 100 rushing yard day with at least two TDs for Cobb.
TJ Yeldon (E) – His price is solid on FD, but I love Yeldon on DK at just 4.4k. He gets a great matchup against A&M’s 80th ranked rush defense which should help get Alabama’s run game back on track. Vegas likes Alabama to score around 35 points and be leading throughout so expect them to hammer A&M with Yeldon to keep the A&M offense off of the field. He had a nice game last year in this matchup as he rushed for 149 yards and a TD.
Ezekiel Elliot (E) – Elliot finally grabbed the lead RB role at Ohio State as he is averaging 26 carries and 160 rushing yards over his last two games, and has even chipped in 10 receptions over his last three games. He didn’t reach the end zone last week so his price is still cheap on both DK and FD. Rutgers hasn’t seen a potent offense since Week 1 as they’ve started conference play by facing two struggling offenses in Penn State and Michigan. This Ohio State offense is a different animal and is really starting to gel. I think they will move the ball up and down the field on Rutgers 44th ranked rush defense and 96th ranked pass defense. JT Barrett has been hogging all the TDs in the last three weeks, but I think Elliot gets rewarded with at least one TD this week and also goes over 100 yards for the third straight week.
Tony Pierson (Kansas) – This is a shot in the dark GPP only play. I want to target that Texas Tech defense, but the awful Kansas offense makes it really difficult. I’ve seen Corey Avery mentioned as a GPP play and he’s OK as a GPP, but the more intriguing option to me is Tony Pierson. Tony Pierson was a WR at the start of the season, but KU’s interim head coach recently moved him back to RB to get him more touches due to his big play ability. He split carries last week with Corey Avery and Kansas’ other RB, Mann, as they all got 10 carries each so this is a GPP punt play only. He’s listed as a minimum priced WR on FD so if sees 10+ carries against Tech’s 118th ranked run defense then he makes for an intriguing GPP punt play as the new KU coach seems intent on getting the ball into his hands.
Kevin Parks (Virginia) – Parks plays for a bad Virginia offense so will probably go overlooked. Parks is Virginia’s clear top weapon on offense and he got 29 carries last week. He’s a pretty nice PPR RB play as he has games with six and four receptions and averaged around three receptions per game in 2013. Duke is not a good rush defense allowing 4.56 YPC so Parks is a nice mid-level option.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Jeremy Langford (Michigan State), Devon Johnson (Marshall – DK early), Javorious Allen (USC- DK early)
Wide Receivers
Tony Lippett (Michigan State) – For some reason he is still under 7k on FD. He already has 25 receptions for 525 yards and seven TDs this year with at least one TD in every game. He gets the dream matchup against Indiana’s 106th ranked pass defense and should continue his TD streak.
Darius Joseph (SMU) – He had 13 receptions for 100 yards and two TDs against East Carolina last week. Joseph was a great PPR option last year as he racked up 103 receptions, but has been hurt by QB play this year. Garrett Kritsch, the new SMU QB, was serviceable against ECU and. Cincinnati has been torched through the air allowing 302 YPG (118th in the country). As long as Kritsch is serviceable again then Joseph will easily pay off his cheap tag on both FD and DK.
Cincinnati wide receivers – It’s really tough to predict which Cincinnati wide receiver to target on a weekly basis. They are pretty cheap due to their inconsistency, but get a great matchup, so if you can hit the right one in your GPP then you should be in for a nice day. The four to choose from are Chris Moore (17/414/5), Mekele McKay (17/321/5), Max Morrison (18/218/2) and Shaq Washington (24/233/2).
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Amari Cooper (Alabama), Corey Davis/Daniel Braverman (Western Michigan), Roger Lewis (Bowling Green), Nelson Agholor (USC – DK early), Jakeem Grant (Texas Tech), Josh Doctson (TCU- cheap option for your 3rd WR slot)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Deon-tay McManus (Marshall) Maxx Williams (Minnesota), Jonnu Smith (FIU). Cam Serigne (Wake Forest), Josiah Price (Michigan State), OJ Howard (Alabama), Jimmay Mundine (Kansas), Justin Sinz (Purdue)
Late Slate – FD & DK
Georgia Tech at UNC (+2.5, 70)
The Vegas total on this one snuck up on me a little bit. I knew that UNC’s defense was bad and that Georgia Tech’s defense was underwhelming this year, but I didn’t have it pegged for a total of 70.
UNC has given up 50 points or more in three of their last four games and is ranked 122nd in pass defense and 95th against the run. Justin Thomas got pulled in the 4th quarter of their last game and is dealing with an ankle sprain, but Paul Johnson, the Georgia Tech head coach, said Thomas is still the QB going forward and he is expected to play as he practiced Wednesday. You’ll want to double check his health but if he’s good to go then he’s definitely in consideration for your late slate QB. He can be boom or bust, as he has a 45 fantasy point game under his belt this year, but only scored 15 fantasy points last week. However, with the UNC defense up next and the high Vegas total this looks like a boom.
Georgia Tech runs the triple option so they are very run heavy. Thomas has 93 carries on the year and Zach Laskey has 105 carries so those are the two you want to focus on for the Georgia Tech running game. Laskey makes for a nice value play against UNC’s porous defense as he is under 6k on FD and under 5K on DK. With Georgia Tech being a triple option team they don’t throw the ball very much at all, but when they do the target is DeAndre Smelter. He’s a GPP play only due to his offense as he has completely disappeared in three of Georgia Tech’s games, but has over 100 yards receiving in each of the other three games
Larry Fedora, the UNC coach, is a nightmare for DFS players. For those of you who play NBA, he is the Keith Smart/Larry Drew of CFB DFS. Mitch Trubisky, the backup UNC QB, had played in every UNC game prior to the Notre Dame game. Trubisky typically entered for the third series, and played three to four a series game. However, against Notre Dame, Marquise Williams played the entire game and put up a huge game with 300 yards passing and 100 yards on the ground. The problem is it’s unclear if Williams will play the entire game again, as Fedora might have just rolled with him the entire game because the UNC offense was playing so well. If Williams comes out and doesn’t kill it on his first two series then Fedora might just go back to inserting for Trubisky for a few series a game which kills a lot of Williams’ value. Also Georgia Tech can really shorten a game if their rushing game is working so UNC might see less total offensive series this game. Georgia Tech has really struggled against the run this year allowing 188 YPG and 5.39 YPC so, if you trust Fedora to not play Trubisky, then this sets up as a nice game for Williams, who is UNC’s leading rusher. I think he’s a great GPP play, but can’t trust Fedora enough to use him in my 50/50’s. UNC spreads the ball around to all of their running backs and wide receivers so it’s tough to target any UNC RB or WR. The one guy to watch going forward is talented freshman, Elijah Hood. Hood dominated the RB carries last week with 17, but only had three carries the week prior, so I need to see another week of volume before I can jump aboard that train.
Green Lights: – Justin Thomas (GT QB), Zach Laskey (GT RB), Deandre Smelter (GT WR- GPP only), Marquise Williams (UNC QB- GPP only)
Yellow Lights: – none
Red Lights: – UNC WR & RB, Ga Tech WR & RB other than Smelter
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Garrett Grayson (Colorado State) – He’s especially cheap on DK and looks like he is recovered from his shoulder injury as he was back to his regular 35+ pass attempts last week. He gets a nice matchup against Utah State’s 86th ranked pass defense, and also is throwing to one of the top WR in the country in Rashard Higgins.
Cody Fajardo (Nevada) – Fajardo has been great the last two weeks as his pass volume has been way up with 43 attempts and 50 attempts to go along with his normal double digit rush attempts. BYU has really struggled to contain the pass as they are giving up 291.5 passing YPG, which is 114th in the country. If you’re spending on QB in the late slate, he’s my number two option behind Mariota.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Darrell Garretson (Utah State), Marcus Mariota (Oregon)
Running Backs
Javorius Allen (USC) – He is in the early slate on DK, but the late slate on FD. He’s been a beast in Sarkisian’s RB friendly system and his been over 200 yards of total offense in each of the last two games with five total TDs. He gets a great matchup against Colorado who is a bad defense ranking 72nd in rush defense (4.99 YPC) and 79th against the pass. If you’re playing in the DK early slate, Allen is a great PPR as he’s been over 100 yards in five of his six games but also gets a ton of receptions as he has 22 receptions over his last four games.
Royce Freeman (Oregon) – Freeman has taken over as the lead RB at Oregon and is too cheap on DK at 4.6k. Byron Marshall has officially been moved to WR, and Freeman has at least 18 carries in each of his last three games. He took full advantage last week as he rushed for 121 yards and two TDs. Vegas likes Oregon to score 40+ and Freeman is a big back who is a weapon inside the 10. Washington is solid against the run but Freeman’s volume will easily allow him to pay off his cheap salary on DK.
Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska) – Following a bye week and a matchup against the tough Michigan State defense, Ameer’s price has dropped back down to playable levels. Northwestern is 56th against the run allowing 3.69 YPC and was ripped apart by Melvin Gordon for 259 rushing yards. Ameer may not quite be on Gordon’s level but he’s pretty close. He managed two rush TDs against the tough Spartan defense and prior to that had back to back 200 yard rushing games.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Malcolm Brown (Texas), Devon Johnson (Marshall – FD Late), Donnell Pumphrey (San Diego State), Jamaal Williams (BYU- check health), Dee Hart (Colorado State- GPP)
Wide Receivers
Ty Montgomery (Stanford) – We’re still waiting on Montgomery’s huge break out game. Higgins, Sharp and Greene are all superior plays in this slate but Montgomery is a nice mid-tier option. He had two TDs in this matchup last year and Arizona State has struggled against the pass this year ranking 73rd in the country.
Rashard Higgins & Hunter Sharp (L) – They’re 1A and 1B in the night slate and get to face off with each other. In his last four games Sharp has scored 28.8, 31.9, 31.3, and 43.4 DK fantasy points. Meanwhile, Higgins has scored 36.7, 24.8, 50.8, and 44.4 DK fantasy points in his last four games. Expect fireworks from these two again as Utah State is 86th in pass defense and Colorado State is 87th in pass defense.
Rashad Greene (Florida State) – Some people might skip over Greene due to the matchup against Notre Dame. However, is only 67th in the country against the pass and this is the type of game that FSU will really lean on Greene. Rashad has been at his best in FSU’s three closest games: Oklahoma State (11/203/1), Clemson (9/135/1) and NC State (11/125/1) so don’t hesitate to plug him in.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Nelson Agholor (USC – FD Late)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Pharaoh Brown (Oregon), EJ Bibbs (Iowa State), Evan Engram (Ole Miss), Nick O’Leary (Florida State), Jarred Gipson (Nevada), Devin Mahina (BYU)
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general.
If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!