CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 9
Welcome back to CFB Week 9’s edition of CFB “Traffic Lights” plays. I’m going to break things down by the early game slate and the late game slate.
There are quite a few differences between the sites’ game sets this week, especially in the early slate. FD has included Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan, Louisiana Tech/Southern Miss, UNLV/Utah State, and Old Dominion/Western Kentucky (Vegas total of 77).
DraftKings on the other hands has included Memphis/SMU and Temple/UCF. The late slates are the same, except that Arizona/Washington State is not in the DK late slate. I’ll analyze the games with the highest projected Vegas totals and then list some other green-light plays from the games I didn’t analyze.
| Traffic Light | What It Means | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups | |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way | |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs | |
Early Slate – FD & DK
Texas Tech at TCU (-22, 70.5)
This past offseason, TCU hired former Texas Tech QB, Sonny Cumbie, as co-offensive coordinator and moved to a spread attack. Their offensive production has shot through the roof and they average 45 PPG. They get a great matchup this week against Texas Tech, and Vegas expects TCU to score 46 points in this game. Texas Tech is 60th in pass defense allowing 229 YPG, and 116th against the run allowing 237 YPG and 4.66 YPC. Trevone Boykin is a dual threat QB who leads TCU in carries, and has thrown for at least 258 yards in every game this year. Last week, he threw for 410 yards and three TDs against Oklahoma State, with the majority going to his top target, Josh Doctson (31/497/5), who had seven receptions for 225 yards and two TDs. Boykin is a little pricey on DK, but is a nice midrange play on FD at 8.4k. BJ Catalon gets the pleasure of facing Tech’s horrible run defense. He has scored a TD in every game this year, including two TDs in each of his last three games. I don’t see any reason why he won’t continue his TD streak this week. The only issue with Catalon is that he doesn’t see a ton of volume, as he only averages 11 carries per game, and has only exceeded 13 carries once all year.
TCU has been a solid defensive unit as they rank 40th in rush defense and 53rd in pass defense. I generally avoid teams playing TCU, but Tech is projected to score around 24 points so there could be some targets. Tech is known as a passing team, but Deandre Washington has averaged 26 carries and almost 150 yards in his past two games. However, I don’t trust Kingsbury to keep on running the ball that much, and Tech is expected to be behind so I’ll pass on Washington this week. Davis Webb gets to throw it around a lot in Kingsbury’s offense, but I like other QB’s better in his price range this week so I’ll pass on him as well. My top targets on Tech would probably be their top two wide receivers, Jakeem Grant (50/629/5) and Bradley Marquez (41/517/7), but both are questionable to play. Grant was either shot or stabbed at a party last weekend, but the injury was said to be minor and he is expected to play. Check back on that though, as the words “shooting” or “stabbing” don’t exactly scream quick comeback. Marquez is listed as day to day with a rib injury.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Trevone Boykin (TCU QB), BJ Catalon (TCU RB), Josh Doctson (TCU WR)
Yellow Lights: – Bradley Marquez/Jakeem Grant (TTU WR- check health), Davis Webb (TTU QB), Kolby Listenbee (TCU WR), Deandre Washington (TTU RB)
Red Lights: – None
UCLA at Colorado (+13, 68.5)
Brett Hundley racked up over 400 yards of total offense and three TDs last week against Cal, and gets another great matchup against Colorado, who allowed SEVEN passing TDs to USC last week. UCLA is expected to score 40 points against Colorado’s porous defense, which is 95th in pass defense allowing 259 YPG, and 82nd in rush defense allowing 176 YPG and 5.20 YPC. Hundley is heavily involved in both the UCLA air attack and ground attack, as he has at least 16 carries in each of his last three games, and will throw it 30+ times. Last year against Colorado, he accounted for 340 total yards and four TDs. You don’t need to pair Hundley up with one of his WR, but if you do then it should be Jordan Payton (42/599/5). Colorado has a weak rush defense and Paul Perkins has been a nice roll. He had over 150 total yards and two TDs last week, and 187 yards rushing the week prior. However, he left last week’s game in the 4th quarter with a wrist injury. He’s expected to be ok, but you should check back later in the week to make sure he is good to go.
UCLA is 102nd in pass defense allowing 268 YPG and Colorado features one of the nation’s best wide receivers in Nelson Spruce. He’s been contained the past two weeks by Oregon State and USC, but should have an easier go of it this week against UCLA. Prior to those games, he had 10 TDs in Colorado’s first five games. With UCLA’s weak secondary, the Vegas total, and Colorado expected to be trailing throughout, the signs are pointing towards Spruce returning to form this week. Sefo Liufau, the Colorado QB, has been improved this year, but is turnover prone with two INTs in three of his last five games. He had a huge game against Cal (who doesn’t), but otherwise has been pretty average. Ignore the Colorado running game as they are RBBC.
Green Lights: – Brett Hundley (UCLA QB), Jordan Payton (UCLA WR), Paul Perkins (UCLA RB – double check health status), Nelson Spruce (Colorado WR)
Yellow Lights: – Sefo Liufau (Colorado QB)
Red Lights: – Colorado RB
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Paxton Lynch (Memphis- only on DK) – Cal plays on Friday this week so we don’t get our weekly QB plug and play. But we do still have SMU to pick on. SMU is 120th in passing defense allowing 307 YPG, and 118th in rush defense allowing 242 YPG and 5.73 YPC. Lynch is a dual threat QB who can take advantage of both aspects of SMU’s terrible defense. He’s a really big kid at 6’7 230 pounds, and Memphis uses his size in the redzone as he already has six rushing TDs on the year. He’s not a prolific passer, but has thrown for more than 300 yards twice this year. With Memphis expected to score 35 points, I think Lynch should be in for 300 total yards and at least three TDs.
Dak Prescott (Miss. State) – Kentucky has been solid against the pass this year allowing only 181 YPG (16th in the country), but have been vulnerable to the run game allowing 173 YPG and 4.25 YPC (78th in the country). I’m not necessarily buying their passing defense numbers though as they’ve faced UT Martin, Ohio, Florida, Vandy, South Carolina, Louisiana Monroe and ULM.
Prescott is the highest priced QB on the board but gives you a great floor. He’s had 300 yards of total offense and three TDs in every game, and has over 100 rushing yards in four of his last five games. Also, Mississippi State surprisingly is only favored by two TDs so a blowout doesn’t look to be a concern.
Brandon Doughty (Western Kentucky – only on FD) – The Vegas total is 77 and Western Kentucky is favored by 10.5 points so fire up Doughty on FD. Western Kentucky loves to throw the ball around and play up-tempo, as Doughty has attempted at least 40 pass attempts in every game but one. Old Dominion is a really bad defense that is 64th against the pass allowing 231 YPG, and 115th against the run allowing 235 YPG. Doughty is your safest play to get a piece of the Western Kentucky passing game as he really spreads it around so it’s tough to target a WR on WKU.
Mitch Leidner/Matt Johns/Craig Harrison (Minnesota, Virginia and Utah State QB) – These guys all scare me as they’re not very talented, but they’re cheap and playing bad defenses. I’d only use them on GPP teams. We’ve seen cheap QBs pay off this year, and there are some top RB with big upside this week that you might want to pay up for. Minnesota is expected to score 30+ against the terrible Illinois defense. David Cobb should account for a lot of that, but Leidner has been a TD vulture of late with four rushing TDs in his last three games on only 26 carries. He accounted for 240 yards of total offense and three TDs last week against a bad Purdue defense, and could produce similar numbers against Illinois. Johns looks to be the full time starting QB at Virginia as he threw for 325 yards against Duke last week. He was in a time-share with Greyson Lambert but took all the snaps last week. If he gets all of the snaps again this week, he should pay off his 4.8k FD tag and 5.5k DK tag against UNC’s terrible defense as UVA’s team total is around 35 this week. Harrison is only available on FD as he is Utah State’s third string QB. He’s my least favorite of the three as I’m really worried about his talent level. He’s a senior who is only playing due to a slew of injuries and was only 5/12 for 28 yards in relief duty last week. UNLV is really bad on defense though as they are 123rd in run defense and 97th in pass defense. Utah State didn’t become run heavy when he entered the game last week and the Aggies are expected to score 34 against UNLV.
Saturday Update- It looks like Lambert is going to get the start for UVA so he’s the guy you want if you are rolling the dice on a UVA QB. He’s the same price as Johns on FD and cheaper on DK so he’s an easy swap.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Rakeem Cato (Marshall), Taylor Heinicke (Old Dominion – FD Only- GPP only)
Running Back
David Cobb (Minnesota) – You really can’t go wrong with any of the top backs as Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah and Devon Johnson are all great plays. However, Cobb is the cheapest of the group and has the best matchup. Illinois is 122nd against the run allowing 271 YPG and 5.26 YPC. In the Illini’s last three games, they have allowed 208 rushing yards and three TDs to Ameer Abdullah (458 total rushing yards for Nebraska), 177 rushing yards and one TD to Akeem Hunt (349 total rushing yards for Purdue), and 175 rushing yards and four TDs to Melvin Gordon (401 total rushing yards for Wisconsin). Cobb has had at least 30 carries in his last four games, and has at least 183 rushing yards in three of his last four. With Cobb’s volume and the Illini’s complete inability to stop the run, Cobb looks like he’s in for a 200+ yard day with multiple touchdowns.
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) – since struggling against Western Illinois, Gordon has gone bonkers. Since that game, he has rushed for 253 yards, 181 yards, 259 yards, and 175 yards with 12 rushing TDs. This week he gets the 102nd ranked Maryland rush defense which allows 198 YPC and 4.31 YPC. He’s the highest priced RB on the board, but for good reason as he carries weekly 200 rushing yards and multi-touchdown upside.
Devon Johnson (Marshall) – it looks like Devon is one of those guys with a nose for the end zone. Coming into last week, he had scored three TDs in each of his previous two games. He only had 9 carries due to a blowout and didn’t have a rushing TD last week. However, he still found a way to score twice as he had 79 receiving yards and two TDs. Once again he gets a weak defense and Marshall is expected to roll as 28 point favorites against Florida Atlantic, who is 97th against the run allowing 5.1 YPC and 197 YPG. The only worry is whether FAU can keep it close enough for him to get 20 carries. Even if it is a blowout, Johnson will probably find a way to score at least two TDs.
Kenneth Dixon (La Tech- FD Only) – FD threw in a few additional small school games this week so be sure not to overlook them. I really like Dixon at only 7.3k against a terrible Southern Miss run defense that allows 5.56 YPC and 226 YPG. Dixon has scored a TD in every game except for Week One against OU, and has at least 21 carries in three of his last four games. He went off in this matchup last year with 207 rushing yards and a TD.
Cameron Stingily (NIU – FD Only) – Stingily has been slowed by injuries this year, but it looks like he is finally getting healthy as he finally had over 20 carries for the first time last week (23/133/1). If he gets 20+ carries again, he’s going to blow away his 5.2k tag. Eastern Michigan is a notoriously bad run defense year in year out and rank 110th this year allowing 5.38 YPC.
Leon Allen (Western Kentucky – FD Only) – he carries some risk as he’s coming off of an injury, and didn’t start last week. However, he was really good before his injury and still got the red zone carries last week with 12 carries for 58 yards and two TDs. He’s pretty cheap at only 7k on FD, and Old Dominion is really bad against the run allowing 5.1 YPC. If he can get a bump in carries, there is a lot of upside at his price tag.
Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska) – Everyone knows Rutgers has a bad pass defense, but they’ve also been vulnerable to the run allowing 162 YPG and 4.74 YPC (67th in the country). Abdullah has proven himself as one of the top running backs in the country. He’s rushed for more than 200 yards three times this year, and has 11 rushing TDs over his last four games.
Kevin Parks (Virginia) – I listed him here last week and he disappointed against Duke. I think he’s worth a second chance this week against an even worse North Carolina defense. Parks is Virginia’s clear top weapon on offense and he got 29 carries the week prior. North Carolina is 107th against the run allowing 4.80 YPC and Virginia is expected to score 35+ so don’t be scared off by last week.
James Conner (Pitt) – This is a DK play where Conner is only 6k. At that price, I don’t think you can leave Conner out of your DK 50/50 and H2H lineups. He’s not receiving the insane workload he was earlier in this season, but he still scored two TDs against a tough Virginia Tech rush defense. Last week was the first week he was under 20 carries. I don’t expect to see him under 20 carries this week as Georgia Tech is really vulnerable on the ground allowing 5.26 YPC. Pitt is expected to score 30 points and I think you’ll see a 100 yard day with two rushing TDs for Conner.
Brandon Hayes (Memphis) – He’s a GPP only as it’s unknown how the carries will be divided for Memphis this week. Hayes returned from injury last week but only had seven carries, while Sam Craft had 17. However, Hayes was ahead of Craft prior to his injury. In this week’s press conference, Hayes said that Memphis brought him back slowly last week, but that he is now 100% and ready to take on a full load. If that’s the case, then he is a great play at minimum price on DK against SMU’s 118th ranked run defense.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Josh Robinson (Miss. State), Alex Collins/Jonathan Williams (Arkansas), Ray Lawry (Old Dominion – FD only- named ODU starting RB today due to two straight 100 yd rushing games)
Wide Receiver
Kevin White (West Virginia) – Oklahoma State is 116th in pass defense allowing 288 YPG and just got torched by TCU for 410 passing yards. Against TCU, OSU was down two starters in the secondary with injuries to cornerback Ashton Lampkin and safety, Larry Stephens. Right now it looks they are questionable for Saturday. If they are out again, particularly Lampkin, then White will go wild. Lampkin’s backup is a true freshman and he was repeatedly torched by TCU’s top WR, Josh Doctson, who had a huge day with seven receptions for 225 yards and two TDs. If Lampkin is back, White should still be fine as he has put up numbers against everyone and has over 100 yards receiving in every game this year.
Hunter Sharp (Utah State- FD only) – He’s only available on FD and is cheap at 6.6k. He had four straight games with over 130 receiving yards going into last week. However, Darrell Garretson got hurt and he only had two receptions for 33 yards last week. He has a great matchup against UNLV, but I worry whether Utah State can consistently get him the ball with their 3rd string QB so he’s a GPP only play for me.
Kenny Bell (Nebraska) – Bell was limited during the first six weeks with a nagging groin injury, but was 100% last week following a bye week. He’s Nebraska’s number one WR and gets a great matchup against the porous Rutgers secondary, which is 98th in pass defense allowing 261 YPG. Rutgers is going to have to stack the box to try to limit the Nebraska run game, so Bell should see lots of man coverage this week. He had five receptions for 89 yards last week, and I think a 100 yard day with a TD is in reach this week.
Da’Ron Brown (Northern Illinois – FD only) – He’s a great play at FD at only 5.5k. Eastern Michigan is 118th in pass defense allowing 300 YPG and Brown is big time deep threat. He’s coming off of a 126 yard receiving game with one TD and should keep it going this week.
Old Dominion & Western Kentucky WRs (FD Only) – This game has the highest total of the early slate and there should be lots of fantasy goodness, but it’s tough to predict where the production will come from. Old Dominion became more run oriented the past few weeks as there was some talk that Taylor Heinicke, the ODU QB, was banged up. Antonio Vaughan was great during the first five weeks with seven TDS, but only has four receptions for 48 yards in his last two games combined. The other ODU WR, Zach Pascal, also has seen his production plummet in the last two weeks, but like Vaughan, was very good during the first five games. Western Kentucky’s 108th ranked pass defense presents a nice bounce back spot for both, if Old Dominion gets back to throwing the ball more, and they are cheap at 5.4k and 5.2k. For Western Kentucky it’s not a matter of if they are going to throw the ball, it’s a matter of who they are going to throw it too. They have four wide receivers who all get the ball: Taywan Taylor (30/405/30), Antwane Grant (28/361/3), Jared Dangerfield (34/349/4), and Willie McNeal (30/287/4). That doesn’t even take into account TE, Mitchell Henry (20/317/3). They’re all cheap and I’d probably side with Taylor who has scored in each of the past two weeks.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Lucky Whitehead (Florida Atlantic), Devonte Boyd (UNLV- FD only), Tyler Lockett (Kansas State), Tyler Boyd (Pitt), Tony Lippett (Michigan State), Jameon Lewis/De’Runnya Wilson (Miss. State), Mario Alford (WVU- GPP)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Mitchell Henry (WKU- FD only), Maxx Williams (Minnesota), Tyreese Russell (EMU- FD only), Cam Serigne (Wake Forest), Eric Frohnapfel (Marshall)
Late Slate – FD & DK
Arizona at Washington State (71, +2.5)
Unfortunately this game isn’t available on the DK late slate as it has a 5 PM start, but it is available on the DK all day and FD late slate. It has a great total and is expected to be close so it’s a great game to target. Washington State is the top passing team in the country and Arizona is 106th against the pass allowing 278 YPG so this sets up nicely for the Washington State offense. Halliday has thrown for more than 400 yards in five of his seven games, and should do so again this week. Washington State likes to spread it around, but three receivers have separated from the pack as Halliday’s favorite targets: River Cracraft (57/676/7), Vince Mayle (57/781/7), and Isiah Myers (53/627/7). Dom Williams (24/496/6) is the 4th guy and is a big play boom or bust player. Ignore the Washington State RB situation.
Washington State is 109th in pass defense and 69th in rush defense so the Arizona offense should see lots of success. The big question is whether Arizona’s top two RBs, Terris-Jones Grigsby and Nick Wilson, will play. Wilson missed last week’s game and Terris-Jones Grigsby was injured. If they are both out then Jared Baker makes a great cheap play. Arizona hasn’t updated their status for the game yet so it’s something you’re going to have monitor throughout the week. If they don’t play, you can also bump up Anu Solomon as he attempted 72 passes in their absence. Solomon is a freshman who has had his ups and downs, but it looks like a big game is coming from him in this shootout. Also, Rich Rod is getting more comfortable with him as he has gone over 70 pass attempts in two of his last three games. His top target is Cayleb Jones (39/592/6), and Austin Hill (25/343/3) is starting to come on strong with 18 receptions in his last three games. Hill is a guy who 1,300 receiving yards two years ago, but missed all of last year with a torn ACL.
Green Lights: – Connor Halliday (Washington State), Vince Mayle/River Cracraft/Isiah Myers/ (Washington State WR), Anu Solomon (Arizona QB), Cayleb Jones (Arizona WR), Arizona RB (check who is healthy/starting)
Yellow Lights: – Dom Williams (Washington State WR), Austin Hill (Arizona WR)
Red Lights: – Washington State RB
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Nick Marshall (Auburn) – Vegas expects the potent Auburn offense to score 40 points in this game. South Carolina is 75th in pass defense allowing 240 YPG and 90th in rush defense allowing 181 YPG and 5.32 YPC. Marshall has been over 100 yards rushing in three straight games and his dual threat ability should give the weak Gamecock defense fits.
JT Barrett (Ohio State) – Barrett has been incredible over his last four games averaging over 40 fantasy points per game as he has accounted for 20 TDs over that span. This isn’t an easy matchup as Penn State is solid defensive unit and is actually ranked 1st in rush defense allowing only 2.01 YPC and 60 YPG. However, they haven’t faced a good offense yet (UCF, Akron, Rutgers, UMASS, Northwestern and Michigan), and certainly not one on Ohio State’s level. There aren’t a ton of other options in this slate so feel free to continue to ride Barrett’s hot streak.
Cody Fajardo (Nevada) – Fajardo is a dual threat QB who has accounted for 300 yards of total offense in each of his last games with 11 TDs in that span (5 rushing). Hawaii is below average defensively ranking 71st against the pass and 53rd against the run. With Nevada projected to score around 28 to 30 points, Fajardo should have another 300 yard day with three TDs.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Garrett Grayson (Colorado State)
Running Back
TJ Yeldon (Alabama) – Yeldon was good to us last week so we’ll go back to the well again this week. His price went up after last week, but he’s still at only 5.4k on DK. Tennessee’s front seven is young and they rank 64th against the run allowing 160 YPG so this is another decent spot for Yeldon. Last year, Yeldon had 72 yards and three TDs against Tennessee. Derrick Henry is an option as well, but I like him more for GPPs.
DJ Foster (Arizona State) – He gives you a great floor because of his pass catching ability. He started off the year on a tear with three 40 point DK fantasy games, but has struggled since Taylor Kelly was injured. The good news is that Taylor Kelly is expected back for this game so defenses won’t be able to solely focus on Foster as Kelly is a threat to run as well. Washington is ok against the run, but really struggles defending the pass. Expect Foster to account for well over 100 yards of total offense and a TD or two.
Cameron Artis-Payne (Auburn) – Artis-Payne has only scored one TD in that last four weeks so his price has dropped across the industry. He’s still getting the majority of Auburn’s RB carries, and this looks like a good week for him to find the end zone again. South Carolina has really struggled against the run allowing 5.32 YPC, which is not a good sign with Auburn’s potent rush attack on deck.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Centarius Donald (ULM – check if playing as he missed last game), Shaun Wick (Wyoming), Aaron Jones (UTEP), Javorious Allen(USC), Ezekiel Elliot (Ohio State), Wayne Gallman (Clemson – DK flex punt play at 3k)
Wide Receivers
Rashard Higgins (Colorado State) – He’s the most expensive WR, but he’s been on an incredible tear. He has at least 143 yards receiving in five of his last six games, and his DK point totals read 31.7, 44.4, and 50.8 over his last three games. He gets another great matchup against Wyoming’s 68th ranked pass defense and Vegas expects Colorado State to score at least 35 points.
Rashon Ceaser (Louisiana Monroe) – Ceaser was slowed by an injury in the first half of the season but has picked it up lately. He was held in check last week as ULM went out of conference and faced Kentucky. However, in the two previous weeks, when ULM played Sun Belt opponents, he averaged 11 receptions and 100 yards receiving. Texas State is solid against the pass but at only 4.4k on DK and 4.8k on FD I think Ceaser easily pays off his tag.
D’haquille Williams (Auburn) – “Duke” came through for us two weeks ago against Mississippi State with 100 yards receiving and two TDs. He’s seen a small price bump but is still a nice buy. He’s a guy who has performed better in non-blowouts, and South Carolina is expected to at least be competitive. This is a down year for the Gamecock secondary as they are only 75th in passing defense and they have no answer for Duke’s size.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Amari Cooper (Alabama), Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss – DK punt), Jaelen Strong (Arizona State), Nelson Agholor (USC), Richy Turner (Nevada)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Jarred Gipson (Nevada), Evan Engram (Ole Miss), Bradley Miller (Texas State), Jeff Heuerman/Nick Vannett (Ohio State), Randall Telfer (USC)
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!