CFB Traffic Lights: Bowl Week Breakdown
Welcome back the season’s final Traffic Lights article. I want to thank RotoGrinders for the opportunity to let me write this article and also everyone who read and commented on my rambling thoughts.
There are a ton of huge bowl tournaments, so good luck to everyone. The only worry with bowl season is a late breaking academic casualty or players breaking curfew and getting suspended. Hopefully, this bowl season won’t have any of those issues. With that said, here is my final breakdown of the season, “Grind Down” style.
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Texas A&M/ West Virginia (-1.5, 65)
Rushing Defense: TAMU – 112th (5.07 YPC, 223.5 YPG), WVU – 65th (4.30 YPC, 162.6 YPG)
Passing Defense: TAMU – 63rd (225.5 YPG), WVU – 64th (226 YPG)
One interesting fact about this game is that Dana Holgerson was on Kevin Sumlin’s staff at UH, and A&M OC Jake Spavital was OC at West Virginia prior to coming to A&M. Spavital and Holgerson have already taken to Twitter joking about they know all of each other’s play calls. It probably won’t have any impact but is worth noting as maybe it gives the defenses a slight edge (the A&M defense can use all the help it can get). The A&M defense was terrible once again and they fired their DC, which means the West Virginia offense is a solid target here. Clint Trickett retired from football due to concussion issues so Skyler Howard will draw the start for West Virginia. He’s more athletic and brings some running ability to the table and A&M has really struggled with running QBs and the running game in general. Rushel Shell got injured in the Baylor game but finally looks to have regained control of the WVU backfield as he had 22 carries in the season finale. He’s a quality mid-tier option at RB as A&M gets shredded on the ground. Kevin White tailed off near the end of the season as WVU became more run heavy, but he’s always a threat to throw up a big game. Mario Alford got hot down the stretch scoring in five of his last six games and is pretty cheap on DK.
The West Virginia defense is a solid unit but nothing to fear. The problem is that A&M’s production is very difficult to predict at the skill positions. They are RBBC so the RBs are off limits. Kyle Allen is your safest exposure to this game and could have a nice game. I’m not really interested in him on FD, but on the DK Monday slate I think he is a solid option at 5.9k, as the Monday QB options are very thin. A&M really spreads the ball at WR so there is no real need to handcuff him with a WR. If you feel the need to pair him up, I would lean to Speedy Noil or Josh Reynolds.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Rushel Shell (WVU RB), Kevin White (WVU WR)
Yellow Lights: – Kyle Allen (A&M QB), Josh Reynolds/Speedy Noil (A&M WRs), Skyler Howard (WVU QB), Mario Alford (WVU WR)
Red Lights: – A&M RBs
Oklahoma/Clemson (+3.5, 52.5)
Rushing Defense: OU – 11th (3.2 YPC, 109.6 YPG), Clemson – 7th (2.8 YPC, 97.7 YPG)
Passing Defense: OU – 115th (272.7 YPG), Clemson – 3rd (161.9YPG)
This is a game that I think is a fade for me as Clemson is very good defensively and DeShaun Watson is out for Clemson. Trevor Knight is expected to return for OU and Samaje Perine is probable. Perine had an incredible freshman year and was on his way to another huge game in his last outing before leaving early with an injury. He has 10 TDs over his last three games, but this Clemson defensive line is one of the best in the country and allows less than 3 YPC. I could see using him in a GPP, but I think there are better ways to spend your cap room. Trevor Knight is returning, but he’s been a disappointment this year and this is a tough matchup. His top target, Sterling Shepard, is still listed as questionable.
The Clemson offense is a machine with DeShaun Watson in, but can be avoided with Watson out. This OU secondary is very beatable, but Cole Stoudt has really struggled this year in all of his outings. Wayne Gallman had a very good finish to the season but rushing defense is the strength of the OU defense. This should be an interesting game as Clemson DC Brent Venables was a long time assistant at OU.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – None
Yellow Lights: – Samaje Perine (OU RB)
Red Lights: – Rest of this game
Arkansas/Texas (+6, 44.5)
Rushing Defense: Arkansas – 23rd (3.62 YPC, 124 YPG), Texas – 63rd (3.90 YPC, 162.1 YPG)
Passing Defense: Arkansas – 55th (221.4 YPG), Texas – 13th (186.3 YPG)
This game features the lowest Vegas total on the slate and is one that I think can be completely faded. Both teams are run first teams that have defenses that play very good run defense so the pace of play will be slow. Also, although both teams are run heavy, they are both RBBC so it is difficult to focus in one particular RB. The only play here is Arkansas TE Hunter Henry. AJ Derby is out, so Henry should get all of the work at TE, and he is their primary passing game weapon.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Hunter Henry (Arkansas)
Yellow Lights: – None
Red Lights: – Everyone but Henry
Notre Dame/LSU (-7, 52.5)
Rushing Defense: ND – 61st (3.98 YPC, 161.7 YPG), LSU – 38th (4.21 YPC, 143.5 YPG)
Passing Defense: ND – 85th (239.8 YPG), LSU – 4th (162.3 YPG)
Notre Dame finished the season on a four-game losing streak that culminated in a thrashing by rival USC. Everett Golson had a really good year, but this LSU secondary is legit and I’ll be avoiding Notre Dame in this spot. The only spot I would maybe play Golson is on the DK Monday slate as there aren’t many options at QB.
You can avoid the LSU passing game as Anthony Jennings struggles as a passer. However, the LSU running game is in play here. The Notre Dame defense gave up 100+ rushing yards to a RB in three of their final four games, and their defense as a whole really cratered. Leonard Fournette had 20+ carries in three of his final games and has his best game of the year in the season finale with 146 rushing yards and a TD. He’s a nice mid-range target on both DK and FD.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Leonard Fournette (LSU RB)
Yellow Lights: – Everett Golson (ND QB – DK)
Red Lights: – Rest of this game
Georgia/Louisville (+7, 56.5)
Rushing Defense: UGA – 75th (4.22 YPC, 175.6 YPG), L’ville – 2nd (2.9 YPC, 93.7 YPG)
Passing Defense: UGA – 2nd (158.4 YPG), L’ville – 31st (199.6 YPG)
Reggie Bonnafon is probable, but Kyle Bolin could draw the start at QB for Louisville. It’s a situation I would probably avoid due to the uncertainty and a solid Georgia pass defense. Michael Dyer is academically ineligible for the bowl game so Brandon Radcliffe should see 20+ carries in this one. Radcliffe is cheap on both sites and has five TDs over his last three games. Georgia has been a very good defense this year, but their run defense has been their weakest link. Georgia Tech dominated the line of scrimmage in their season finale, and Kentucky and Florida also had big days on the ground against them. Value is tough to come by so he is play as an RB2. UGA sports the second-best passing defense in the nation, but the SEC East is not pass-happy so they haven’t really been challenged. DeVante Parker will be the best receiver they have seen all year, but I worry about the Louisville QB situation so I think he is GPP only.
Georgia is a run-heavy team so Hutson Mason and the UGA receivers are never really on my radar. The only one worth a tiny look is Malcolm Mitchell, who has scored in three straight games. However, he is very touchdown-dependent as he doesn’t get a ton of volume. Louisville is a defense I typically avoid, but Nick Chubb gets a ton of volume and has proven to be somewhat matchup proof. Also, the Louisville run defense wasn’t “lock down” material during the late portion of the season as Dalvin Cook had 9 carries for 110 yards and two TDs, Tarean Folston had 18 carries for 134 yards and a TD, and Stanley Williams had 18 carries for 126 yards and two TDs. I’d probably look for an RB in a better spot for cash games, but he’s in play for GPPs.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Brandon Radcliffe (L’ville RB), DeVante Parker (L’ville WR – GPP), Nick Chubb (UGA RB)
Yellow Lights: – Malcolm Mitchell (UGA WR)
Red Lights: – UGA QB and L’ville QB
Maryland/Stanford (-14, 48)
Rushing Defense: Md – 98th (4.49 YPC, 201.6 YPG), Stanford – 11th (3.22 YPC, 111.8 YPG)
Passing Defense: Md – 78th (236.5 YPG), Stanford – 7th (175.7 YPG)
This is one of three games with a total under 50. With Maryland projected to score only 17 points against a tough Stanford defense, I think they can be avoided entirely. Stanford was RBBC the entire year, but Remound Wright started to emerge from the pack in the final two games with six rushing TDs. He is still splitting some carries with Christian McCaffrey, but Wright is the goal line back and getting more of the timeshare. He is cheap on both sites and gets a nice matchup with a very weak Maryland rush defense. Ty Montgomery is questionable for the bowl game, and if he is out then Devon Cajuste is in play as a cheap WR3.
Additional note – I forgot to include that Austin Hooper is in play as a punt TE.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Austin Hooper (Stanford TE)
Yellow Lights: – Remound Wright (Stanford RB), Devon Cajuste (Stanford WR – if Ty Montgomery out)
Red Lights: – Maryland
Ole Miss/TCU (-3, 56.5)
Rushing Defense: Ole Miss – 29th (3.40 YPC, 133.6 YPG), TCU – 13th (2.98 YPC, 117.1 YPG)
Passing Defense: Ole Miss – 17th (187.6 YPG), TCU – 86th (242.4 YPG)
Vegas has this one predicted to be a 30-27 TCU win. Ole Miss is very good defensively and 30 points would be tied for TCU’s lowest point total of the year. Based on those two factors and the high price of Trevone Boykin, Aaron Green, and Josh Docston, the TCU players are a fade for me on FD. On DK, Doctson and Green are still somewhat affordable so they are in play on short three-game slate, however.
TCU’s weakness is pass defense, but Bo Wallace is very tough to trust and Ole Miss is missing their top two wideouts in Vince Sanders and Laquon Treadwell. My favorite play from this game is TE Evan Engram, who is now Wallace’s number one target. He’s expensive, but he is one of a few TEs with major upside. He has 100 receiving yards in two of his last three games, and with Sanders and Treadwell out against Mississippi State, he had five receptions for 176 yards. Cody Core should step into the role of number one wide out.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Evan Engram (Ole Miss TE)
Yellow Lights: – Josh Doctson (TCU WR – only on DK), Cody Core (Ole Miss WR)
Red Lights: – Trevone Boykin (TCU QB), Ole offense
Boise State/Arizona (-3, 68)
Rushing Defense: Boise St.- 36th (4.00 YPC, 141.5 YPG), Zona – 71st (4.05 YPC, 170.4 YPG)
Passing Defense: Boise St. – 61st (225 YPG), Zona – 117th (279.1 YPG)
Arizona is projected to win this one 37-31 so it is a nice game to target. The Boise State defense has turned in a few solid outings this year but has really struggled against the better offenses they faced. However, Arizona QB Anu Solomon was really bad down the stretch of the year. Some of that was due to injury as he had a bad ankle, but he also just didn’t play well, and didn’t finish the blowout loss to Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship game. He is reported to be feeling good once again and due to his struggles his price has come down, especially on DK. Boise State has coughed up some really big days to QBs as Garrett Grayson threw for over 400 yards, Cody Fajardo accounted for 370 yards of total offense and five TDs, and Bo Wallace threw for 387 yards and 4 TDs. For that reason, I like Solomon as a GPP option, especially as a QB2 on DK. However, I have some concern that if struggles early that he could get pulled so I’m wary of him in cash games. Boise State also gave up some big games to running backs as Donnell Pumphrey had 24 carries 147 yards and two TDs, Marteze Waller had 18 carries for 164 yards and two TDs, and Teriyon Gibson ran for 200 yards and three TDs, as New Mexico ran for over 500 yards on them. Nick Wilson took over as Arizona’s primary RB down the stretch as Terris Jones-Grigsby couldn’t stay healthy. Jones-Grigsby should be fully healthy for this one, but I think Wilson maintains his role as the lead back. He’s also the bigger back of the two and should get the goal-line work. Prior to the blowout loss to Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship, Wilson had scored multiple TDs in three straight games. The Arizona wide receivers are tough pin down and should be avoided in cash games. Cayleb Jones was affected by Solomon’s struggles and really tanked down the stretch. He had a solid fantasy day against Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship, but his long TD came on a blown coverage after the game was already out of hand, so it was a bit of a fluke. He’s a high-upside WR3 if Solomon gets it together, but has a very low floor if Solomon continues to struggle.
I’m not quite sure what to do with Jay Ajayi. Outside of two games, he has been matchup proof and has shown the ability to have big games against non-Mountain West Conference teams, as he had 180 yards of total offense and a TD against a very tough Ole Miss defense. Arizona has been more susceptible to the pass than the run, and they have the Pac 12 defensive player of the year and Bednarik winner in linebacker Scooby Wright. The Pac 12 is more of a passing conference though and they did allow a big day to Javorious Allen, who had 200 yards rushing. I don’t mind him due to his volume, but find myself trending more towards to the middle tier of RBs, who are in better matchups. Grant Hedrick is a dual-threat QB, who gets 10+ carries a game and has a great matchup with a bad Arizona pass defense. I think he’s a fine play, especially in GPPs, but he’s expensive and in that price range I’d rather have Dak Prescott for cash games. At WR, Thomas Sperbeck and Shane Williams-Rhodes have been solid, but Boise is a run first team and they split the targets so their upside has been limited.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Anu Solomon (Arizona QB – DK GPP), Nick Wilson (Arizona RB), Jay Ajayi (Boise St. RB)
Yellow Lights: – Cayleb Jones (Arizona WR), Grant Hedrick (Boise St. QB),
Red Lights: – None
Miss St./ Georgia Tech (+7, 61.5)
Rushing Defense: Miss. St. – 25th (3.70 YPC, 126.5 YPG), GT – 68th (5.10 YPC, 168.8 YPG)
Passing Defense: Miss St. – 121st (285.2 YPG), GT – 65th (227.6 YPG)
I’m not a huge fan of this spot for Georgia Tech as State’s weakness on defense lies in the secondary and not in rush defense. Mississippi State has held some pretty good run offense like Auburn and Alabama in check so they are built to contain run games. However, Synjyn Days is still really cheap despite having three TDs in his last game. He has been on a nice run so I do think he is in play. Darren Waller has taken over as Georgia Tech’s number one WR with Deandre Smelter injured and has scored in each of the past two games. The Mississippi State secondary is very beatable but Georgia Tech doesn’t throw very often so he’ll need to hit a big play. I could see him as a cheap WR3 for GPPs.
With Mississippi State projected to score around 35 points, I like this spot for the Mississippi State run game. The Georgia Tech run defense has been susceptible all year and allows over 5 YPC. They are similar to the Dallas Cowboys in that they have been able to contain the damage due to playing ball control on offense. If Mississippi State is able to contain the Georgia Tech run game then Josh Robinson and Dak Prescott should be in for big days on the ground. FSU RB Dalvin Cook tore this front seven apart in the ACC Championship with 220 total yards and I think Josh Robinson is a great mid-range play. His price has come way down as he struggled down the stretch. However, that was due to a very tough schedule as he faced Ole Miss, Alabama and Arkansas, who are all very good run defense. The other game was against Vanderbilt, which turned into a blowout so his carries were limited. Prescott is also the cheapest we have seen him in a long time as he is under 10k on each site. He’s been putting up solid numbers but has also been held back by the schedule like Robinson. This Georgia Tech defense is a step down from Ole Miss, Bama and Arkansas, and Jameis Winston just had a big day against this defense. I think Prescott could turn in a fantasy performance like we saw at the beginning of the year from him. De’Runnya Wilson came out of nowhere to have a big year and is Prescott’s top red zone target. He is very cheap around the industry and one of the better value plays at WR, especially on FD, where he is minimum price. Jameon Lewis has never been able to get on track this year and would be GPP-only for me.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Dak Prescott (MSU QB), Josh Robinson (MSU RB), De’Runnya Wilson (MSU WR)
Yellow Lights: – Synjyn Days (GT RB), Darren Waller (GT WR), Jameon Lewis (MSU WR)
Red Lights: – None
Auburn/Wisconsin (+6.5, 63.5)
Rushing Defense: AU – 45th (4.09 YPC, 149.5 YPG), Wisconsin – 16th (3.44 YPC, 118.9 YPG)
Passing Defense: AU – 84th (239.2 YPG), Wisconsin – 5th (164.3 YPG)
Wisconsin’s pass defense looks great on paper, but so do the majority of the Big 10 defenses, as they simply don’t face teams that throw the ball (outside of Ohio State and Michigan State). The highest ranked passing offense they have faced this year is Bowling Green, who is 39th in the country, so their passing defense numbers aren’t necessarily scaring me off of the Auburn passing game. I think Nick Marshall is a nice GPP play that will be low owned due to Wisconsin’s defensive numbers, and he is always a threat in the running game. He has a nice tag on DK at only 7.9k. I don’t have a strong feeling for or against Cameron Artis-Payne, but he probably won’t make my rosters as this Wisconsin run defense is solid. I think a speed WR like Sammie Coates could get loose here as the Badgers struggled to contain Ohio State’s speed at WR, and Travin Dural got loose for 151 yards and a TD against them in the opener. I’m not sure what is going on with D’Haquille Williams as he was “running late” and was supposed to arrive late to Bowl practices. It’s a situation to probably avoid unless you feel like gambling in a GPP as it wouldn’t surprise me if he missed some game time. There are some reports that C. J. Uzomah could see some time at his position so he could be in play as a cheap TE, depending on Williams’ status.
Wisconsin is without their head coach as he oddly took the job at Oregon State. Athletic Director Barry Alvarez has once again named himself as the interim head coach, which might be part of the reason why Wisconsin keeps on losing head coaches. Alvarez was a great head coach before moving to the AD job, and has said he plans to be more aggressive and wants to push the ball down the field if Auburn stacks the box. I guess that means Alex Erickson gets a small bump, and Erickson has been solid in the past two games. However, I can’t trust a Wisconsin receiver this year though in anything but a GPP. Auburn has been more vulnerable to the pass than the run. However, they fired their defensive coordinator and did give up solid days to TJ Yeldon (19/127/2), Nick Chubb (19/144/2) and Josh Robinson (19/97/2), and Melvin Gordon is matchup proof. It just boils down to whether you want to pay his price tag in a less than ideal spot. I don’t hate the idea, but it’s something I’ll probably only do in GPPs.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Nick Marshall (Auburn QB – DK & GPP), Sammie Coates (Auburn WR), Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin RB)
Yellow Lights: – CJ Uzomah (Auburn TE), Alex Erickson (Wisconsin WR), Cameron Artis-Payne (Auburn RB)
Red Lights: – None
Michigan State/Baylor (-2.5, 70)
Rushing Defense: MSU – 6th (3.4 YPC, 97.5 YPG), Baylor – 10th (2.9 YPC, 107.7 YPG)
Passing Defense: MSU – 25th (196 YPG), Baylor – 101st (260 YPG)
I already sort of discussed how the Big 10 and SEC East pass defense rankings are inflated due to their schedule. It looks like Vegas is taking that into account as Baylor is projected to 36 points against a tough Michigan State defense, which is a little higher than what I thought. I typically just avoided the Michigan State defense the past few years, but this game carries the 2nd highest total of the slate, so it shouldn’t be ignored. Oregon (46 points) and Ohio State (49 points) both had their way with this defense. I’d take Oregon and Ohio State’s offense over Baylor’s, but they are definitely right there with those teams in terms of offensive firepower. Marcus Mariota threw for 318 yards and three TDs as Devon Allen picked up 110 yards and two TDs, and Royce Freeman had 13 carries for 89 yards and two TDs. In the Ohio State game, J. T. Barrett threw for 300 yards and three TDs, ran for 86 yards and two more TDs, and Ezekiel Elliot also ran for 154 yards and two TDs. Based on those numbers and the Vegas total, I like the Baylor passing game. I’ll avoid the Baylor running game as I think MSU is more susceptible to the pass, and the Baylor running game can be difficult to predict. Devin Chafin is expected to return from injury and he was the goal line back prior to his injury and cut into Shock Linwood’s production. Bryce Petty struggled during the late portion of the season but had a big season finale throwing for over 400 yards against a solid Kansas State defense. Due to his late season struggles, his price is pretty reasonable, especially on DK. At WR, I’ll take the discount with Antwan Goodley if I’m handcuffing a WR with Petty. I don’t hate Corey Coleman, but I do think his price is still too high due to his monster game against Oklahoma. Goodley has scored in his last two games, and finally had a big game in the season finale against Kansas State. He’s particularly cheap on DK at 5.5k.
Baylor’s pass defense has been poor and I’m not completely buying their rushing defense numbers as the Big 12 is a passing league and their non-conference didn’t feature any quality running attacks either. Jeremy Langford and Tony Lippett are definitely in play for me. Connor Cook’s price on FanDuel is intriguing as he allows you to load up elsewhere and you can pair him with Tony Lippett for very cheap. You’ll have to pay for Langford, but he’s been great as he has at least 100 rushing yards and two TDs in six straight weeks. Tony Lippett just seems underpriced to me on both DK and FD and has a great matchup with Baylor’s 101st ranked passing defense. Baylor’s passing defense really faltered down the stretch and they gave up big days to both Bradley Marquez and Jakeem Grant of Texas Tech, and Kansas State’s Tyler Lockett.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Bryce Petty (Baylor QB), Antwan Goodley (Baylor WR), Jeremy Langford (MSU RB), Tony Lippett (MSU WR)
Yellow Lights: – Connor Cook (MSU QB), Corey Coleman (Baylor WR)
Red Lights: – None
Missouri/Minnesota (+5, 47.5)
Rushing Defense: Minn – 60th (4.49 YPC, 161.2 YPG), Mizzou – 31st (3.55 YPC, 135.8 YPG)
Passing Defense: Minn – 32nd (201.5 YPG), Mizzou – 38th (208.5 YPG)
This is the third-lowest projected scoring game of the day and has a very low total below 50. I’d be in favor of just fading completely, but there are at least a few players worth mentioning. Maty Mauk was horrific during the middle portion of the year but was at least respectable during the later portion of the year. He’s not a guy I’m looking to roster, but is cheap on DK. Missouri is RBBC so it’s tough to target any of their RBs and Minnesota does have a solid run defense. The only real play I’m strongly considering from Mizzou is Bud Sasser. He is Mauk’s favorite target and Missouri’s 2nd leading WR, Jimmie Hunt, is doubtful so Sasser could get a few more targets. Minnesota is in the same boat as the other Big 10 defenses in that I’m not scared of their passing defense numbers.
Missouri is a pretty solid defensive team and one I typically avoid. However, some of their numbers are due to the poor offenses in the SEC East and they did lose their DC as he left to become the head coach at Missouri State. You can ignore the Minnesota passing game except for Maxx Williams, who is one of the best TEs in the country. Minnesota’s offense centers around David Cobb. You can typically pencil him for at least 25 carries per game so his volume is very safe and predictable. He is more of a cash game option than GPP option for me as he doesn’t have a huge ceiling because Minnesota’s offense is not explosive. It’s not a play I’ll probably make, but Missouri has been susceptible to power rushing games like Minnesota’s.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Bud Sasser (Mizzou WR), Maxx Williams (Minn. TE)
Yellow Lights: – David Cobb (Minn RB)
Red Lights: – None
Florida State/Oregon (-9, 72)
Rushing Defense: FSU – 56th (3.94 YPC, 160.1 YPG), Oregon – 49th (4.12 YPC, 154.2 YPG)
Passing Defense: FSU – 49th (218.2 YPG), Oregon – 100th (259.5 YPG)
If you’re in first place prior to this game I definitely wouldn’t start counting your money. This game has the highest total of the slate and should be incredible both to watch and to target for DFS. Vegas has this one around 40-32 Oregon so target players from both sides. Marcus Mariota took home the Heisman trophy and is the most expensive QB on the board, but he should be well worth the money. The Oregon WRs are next to impossible to peg so Mariota is the surest thing to get a piece of this Oregon offense. He really spreads it around to his WRs as six Oregon WRs have between four and seven TDs. He’s been on an absolute tear the past six games and is the number one target at QB if you’re spending up. This FSU defense has not been the same lock-down defense from last year so Mariota should roll once again. The other Oregon player to target is RB Royce Freeman. He finished the year with three straight 100-yard games and is a solid option in the 7-8k range of RBs.
Oregon CB Ifo Ekpre-Olumo is out, which is a big blow to an already iffy Oregon secondary, as he was their top corner and an NFL draft prospect. Jameis Winston and Rashad Greene were a great combo in the ACC Championship Game and they make another great QB/WR handcuff in this slate. Winston is affordable on both sites and is going to be heavily owned on DK as he is only 6.3k for some reason. Greene is a big game WR and I expect him to show up huge here. At RB, Karlos Williams is expected to return which muddies the FSU RB situation a little bit. There is absolutely zero question in my mind that Dalvin Cook is by far the superior back. Hopefully, FSU has figured that out and gets him the majority of the carries. He’s still pretty cheap so he’s definitely in play as a GPP play because if he gets the majority of the carries then I like him to have another quality day at an affordable tag. Nick O’Leary is a great option at TE if you are spending as he is targeted frequently in the red zone.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Marcus Mariota (Oregon QB), Royce Freeman (Oregon RB), Jameis Winston (FSU QB), Rashad Greene (FSU WR), Nick O’Leary (FSU TE), Dalvin Cook (FSU RB)
Yellow Lights: – None
Red Lights: – None
Ohio State/Alabama (-9, 58.5)
Rushing Defense: Alabama – 4th (2.8 YPC, 88.7 YPG), Ohio State – 34th (3.87 YPC, 139.8 YPG)
Passing Defense: Alabama – 58th (223.7 YPG), Ohio State – 18th (188.2 YPG)
I typically just avoid the Alabama defense and that’s what I’ll be doing here, especially in cash games. I do think there is some merit to the OSU passing game in GPPs though as they will be low owned. The main guy I am looking at is OSU WR Devin Smith, who is coming off of a four reception 137 yards game with three TDs against Wisconsin. The weakness of this Alabama defense is the inability of their secondary to make plays on the ball on deep throws. You saw Sammie Coates and Jimmie Hunt both have huge days as they made plays on deep throws, and Kevin White did the same in the season opener. Smith is not a volume WR, but he has a catch of at least 30 yards or more in every game but one this year. His skill set looks to match up the best with Alabama’s weakness. I usually love the OSU run game, but I just never take running backs against Alabama’s front seven.
For Alabama, Amari Cooper has been by far the best WR for DFS purposes and this OSU secondary hasn’t been tested. Lane Kiffin does a great job of moving him around all over the field, and he will even line up the backfield sometimes. He is Blake Sims’ first read on every passing play so the targets are always there. It’s just a matter of whether you can fit him in as he is expensive. Ohio State has coughed up some big days to RBs as well as Jeremy Langford had 137 yards and 3 TDS, Tevin Coleman had 228 yards and three TDs, and David Cobb had 145 yards and three TDs. However, I cited that stat prior to the Big 10 championship game and they promptly went out and shut down Melvin Gordon, holding him to 2.9 YPC. You’ll also have to deal with a split backfield as TJ Yeldon and Derrick Henry both get work. Yeldon has two TDs in two straight games, but Henry had more carries last game. Henry is GPP only for me as his carries have been very unstable, while Yeldon probably makes for the better cash game play, if you decide to go that route.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Amari Cooper (Alabama WR)
Yellow Lights: – Devin Smith (OSU WR), TJ Yeldon/Derrick Henry (Alabama RBs)
Red Lights: – None
Houston/Pitt (-3, 53.5)
Rushing Defense: UH – 32nd (3.54 YPC, 136.3 YPG), Pitt – 50th (4.42 YPC, 156.6 YPG)
Passing Defense: UH – 30th (198.3 YPG), Pitt – 21st (192.7 YPG)
Both of these teams are without their head coaches as UH fired Tony Levine and Pitt lost Paul Chryst to Wisconsin. So there is some uncertainty here as you wonder if both teams will be ready to play, and this Vegas total is pretty low. UH’s rushing numbers look great, but they haven’t seen an RB anywhere near the level of James Conner. The best running attack they have faced was probably BYU, and Jamaal Williams ran for 139 yards and two TDs against them. The only worry I have with Pitt is how the departure of Paul Chryst will affect them. Chryst comes from the Wisconsin tree of run-heavy attacks so with him gone, I do wonder whether Conner gets the same insane volume. I think he’s probably fine, and if anything, he may get 25 carries instead of 30. His volume was down near the end of the year as his workload took a toll on him and he was banged up. However, the three-week layoff should have him ready to go. He’s dropped to sub 9k on FD for the time in since the beginning of the year, and brings that added element of PMR hope by having a big time player going on the last day of this bowl slate. If it’s not James Conner for Pitt, then it will be Tyler Boyd. He has TDs in three straight games and has over 100 yards receiving in five of his last six games.
Greg Ward, Jr. and Kenneth Farrow have been playing great football for the Coogs down the stretch, but that has resulted in their price tags rising. Combine that with a low Vegas total and a step up in competition, and I’ll be avoiding the UH rushing attack. The only play I’m intrigued by here is Deontay Greenberry as a GPP play. He won me a ton of money last year so I’ve been a sucker for him this year and he has been a disappointment the majority of the year. However, in two of his past four games he has flashed last year’s upside. He had nine receptions for 103 yards and barely missed another big gain for a TD in his last game. He was targeted heavily Pitt hasn’t faced many good passing teams at all. The best passing teams they played were probably Miami and Duke and Philip Dorsett had 105 yards and a TD, and Jamison Crowder 165 yards and two TDs against them. He’s still really cheap so I like him as a high upside WR3 in GPPs.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – James Conner (Pitt RB), Tyler Boyd (Pitt WR), Deontay Greenberry (UH WR)
Yellow Lights: – None
Red Lights: – None
Iowa/Tennessee (-3.5, 51.5)
Rushing Defense: Iowa – 55th (4.29 YPC, 158.8 YPG), Tenn – 64th (4.05 YPC, 162.1YPG)
Passing Defense: Iowa – 8th (175.8 YPG), Tenn – 29th (197.8 YPG)
This game is pretty underwhelming. I think both of these defenses are overrated due to their playing poor offensive teams in the SEC East and Big 10. However, I’m not sold that either offense is good enough to take advantage, and this low Vegas total is concerning. Joshua Dobbs is way too expensive for me on DK but is in play on FD. He is getting a ton of work in the running game as he has 17 or more carries in four of the five games he has started. He is still averaging 30 passing attempts per game as well so his volume is great. This Iowa defense is nothing to write home about and was mediocre against Big 10 offenses despite not even facing Michigan State or Ohio State. Jalen Hurd got hit with an underage drinking charge over the break and Tennessee is handling his punishment internally. There’s no way to predict what that will be as he could just miss a series, or he could miss a quarter – or maybe he doesn’t miss any time. He left the season finale with a concussion early so his price dropped and he is practically bare minimum on FD so he’s definitely in play there, if you can stomach the risk of whatever “internal discipline” entails. The Tennessee WRs haven’t been very productive this year, but if you’re looking to play one then it would be Pig Howard.
This Iowa offense doesn’t excite me very much. Ruddock is an alright QB, but he has only topped 300 yards passing three times this year so his ceiling is limited. They spread the ball around at WR so they are out, but Jake Duzey is a solid option at TE. Mark Weisman is slow and plodding but he does get a ton of work around the goal line. He has 14 TDS on the year but was held without a TD for the last three games so his price is cheap. If you need a cheap RB2 to possibly get you 60 yards and two TDs, he’s an option but his ceiling is limited.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Jake Duzey (Iowa TE), Joshua Dobbs (Tenn QB)
Yellow Lights: – Jalen Hurd (Tenn RB)
Red Lights: – None
Kansas State/UCLA (-1.5, 59)
Rushing Defense: KSU – 24th (3.72 YPC, 124.4 YPG), UCLA – 52nd (4.00 YPC, 157.7 YPG)
Passing Defense: KSU – 79th (236.5 YPG), UCLA – 88th (244.3 YPG)
Kansas State has been a pretty solid defensive unit on the year, but they are vulnerable to the pass and gave up a big day to Bryce Petty (412 passing yards), while Trevone Boykin ran for 123 yards and three TDs, and passed for another 219 yards and a TD. Hundley is in the Boykin mold so he could give KSU some problems here. The KSU run defense has been pretty solid and has held up against some solid running teams so I’ll be avoiding Paul Perkins. Hundley isn’t a guy that you need to handcuff with a WR as he spreads the ball around and does a lot with his legs. His top target, Jordan Payton, was quiet down the stretch so he is pretty cheap now and you could handcuff them in a GPP, but I wouldn’t do it for cash games.
UCLA has struggled defensively at times this year, especially against the pass, so Jake Waters and Tyler Lockett are in play here. Lockett has been fantastic as he has at least 9 receptions and 119 yards in each of his last four games. The main problem with him is that his price has gone way up because of that and he is priced right there with Amari Cooper. Most will opt for Cooper at that price point so he makes for a fine GPP contrarian play that will probably be low owned. I’d prefer Dak Prescott to Waters on FD as they are similarly priced, but he has a nice price on DK and is a solid option in their big bowl tournament as he gets a ton of work in both the passing and running game for KSU. The KSU RBs are RBBC and Waters steals a lot of the volume as well so they can be ignored.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Brett Hundley (UCLA QB), Jake Waters (KSU QB), Tyler Lockett (KSU WR)
Yellow Lights: – Jordan Payton (UCLA WR)
Red Lights: – None
Oklahoma St/Washington (-6, 56.5)
Rushing Defense: Okla. St – 67th (4.10 YPC, 168 YPG), Wash. – 22nd (3.30 YPC, 121.9 YPG)
Passing Defense: Okla. St. – 111th (269.3YPG), Wash – 120th (283.9 YPG)
Mason Rudolph is a very intriguing cheap QB on the last game of the slate and could swing some money. He was expected to redshirt, but due to injuries, OSU pulled his redshirt late in the season and he started the final two games against Baylor and OU. He played pretty solid as he averaged 277 passing yards per game and two passing TDs. He is only 5k on FD and really allows you to stack up your roster so I think he makes for a great GPP play and could be pretty popular. This Washington secondary has not been good, and they kicked their top corner off the team, so Rudolph should at least be able to duplicate his numbers against Baylor and OU. Tyreek Hill put Oklahoma State into a bowl game with a late kick return for a TD against OU, then ran into legal problems and has been dismissed. Hill was taking a few carries away from Desmond Roland so Roland gets a small boost. He’s more talented than Mark Weisman but is similar in that he’s not particularly explosive but is very good at finding the end zone. He’s cheap and could grab you a TD or two. It’s tough to target any OSU WR, but Brandon Shephard and James Washington have been Rudolph’s favorite targets in his two starts.
This OSU defense is very beatable but Washington is a tough team for DFS purposes. They are a run heavy team but are RBBC so none of their backs typically see over 20 carries. Dwayne Washington finished the year on a nice run with three straight 100 yard rushing games and five TDs in that span. With the split carries, you can expect around 17 to 18 carries from him. The Washington WRs are likewise difficult to predict as they spread it out and their leading WR, Jaydon Mickens, only has 535 receiving yards and three TDs on the year. Cyler Miles doesn’t interest me at QB.
Additional note: I forgot to hit on TE Joshua Perkins. He didn’t play the first five weeks, but has 50 yards receiving and a TD in two of his last three games. He gives you some late PMR for a cheap price at a tough position to fill and OSU struggles to defend the pass.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Mason Rudolph (OSU QB), Joshua Perkins (Washington TE)
Yellow Lights: – Desmond Roland (OSU RB), Brandon Shepard/James Washington (OSU WR), Dwayne Washington (Wash RB), Jaydon Mickens (Wash WR)
Red Lights: – None
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on Twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!