CFB Weekly Picks: Bowl Extravaganza
Merry Christmas to everyone reading this article and I am hoping all of you have a great new year (second only to myself after, hopefully, winning the King of the Campus tournament). I am hoping this article along with all the other RotoGrinders content has either turned you on to the college football game or made you into an even better player this year. This is a great game, and for those of you deciding weather to play or not, I strongly suggest playing during this bowl season and finding out how fun college football DFS can be.
This article will be geared towards the FanDuel Monday through Friday pricing, featuring the King of the Campus game set. I will be posting another article early next week featuring the DraftKings Cash Bowl game set. This is a great time of the year for fantasy college football, yet I am disappointed that we only have a week of football games left. I am hoping that anybody reading this article is going to pony up the $200 and play in the King of the Campus game. We need these big tournaments to fill if we want the sites to run similar tournaments next year.
There are many different ways to approach building your lineup when you are trying to beat 3000 other entries. I will be approaching it many different ways, but I think for people only putting in one or two entries, the best approach will be as follows: Start with a mid to upper tier QB, add RBs that combine to use 15-18k of your salary and leave yourself around 20-22k for your WR and TE positions. I will base this article around that approach, so when I have players listed at the top of my list, it doesn’t necessarily mean they are my top play at that position. The plays are based around the value of the player versus the salary he commands.
Quarterback
Joshua Dobbs (Tennessee) – Dobbs offers huge upside for a very reasonable price. He is priced as the 20th QB on the board, yet he probably has top-five upside. He has played six games and started five of them, and is averaging over 28 points in those starts. He has only been held under 20 points in one of those games, so there is some consistency as well. He also has a 53-point performance in there, so we can see his upside. His running ability is what makes him so explosive and targeting running QBs is usually the best way to approach big tournaments.
Dak Prescott (Mississippi St) – Prescott was a Heisman candidate just four weeks ago. A couple of losses and a few “down” games and he wasn’t even in consideration anymore. The nice thing about Prescott is his down games are still 25-point performances. Many people are quick to forget that through ten games, he was consistently outplaying everyone’s #1 QB Marcus Mariota. While he isn’t the most accomplished passer out there, he is still the best dual-threat QB on the board. He almost has 3000 yards passing, 1000 rushing yards, 25 passing TDs, and 13 rushing TDs. Those stats are absurd for a player that no one is talking about anymore.
Marcus Mariota (Oregon) – Mariota is the safest play in all college football at any position. If you want to start your roster with a guaranteed 35 points, Mariota is your man. The problem with taking him is he is $1500-$3500 higher than the other guys I like this week. Mariota has a six-game streak of at least 35 points, and I don’t see that changing in a game of this magnitude. I think playing Mariota is a great choice in cash games or if you just looking to cash a team or two in the big tournament. I, however, think the salary is too high if you are looking to win the big one.
Other Options: Nick Marshall (Auburn), Connor Cook (Michigan St), Blake Sims (Alabama)
Running Back
Dalvin Cook (Florida St) – The price is just too cheap on Cook this week to not have him in a lineup or two. The Seminoles lineup looks so much more explosive with him in it. I also think Florida St is going to try pounding the ball on the ground to keep the Oregon offense on the sidelines as much as possible. Cook has shown he can handle the full complement of carries the last couple of weeks since Karlos Williams got injured and has averaged over 30 touches per game. I think Cook is going to need to have a big performance if Florida St has any chance at keeping up with Oregon. He has almost 400 total yards in the last two games. He just needs to find his way into the end zone to put up really big numbers.
Nick Wilson (Arizona) – Wilson has been flying under the radar as a high upside player this year. He has been injured off and on and also split carries for part of the season. If you have looked into the health and RB situation this year, he has been great if you played him when the right situation arose. He has six games with 20 or more carries and he has gone for over 170 total yards in five of those contests. I think Arizona will feed him the ball this week in a high scoring game and he reaches that 170 yard total again with multiple TDs.
Jay Ajayi (Boise St) – This choice was basically between Ajayi and Melvin Gordon. They are both great players and picking either one of them is a fine choice. I personally like the match up for Ajayi a little better and his salary is also a little lower. Ajayi had a rare bad game last time out, but I wouldn’t worry about that one bit. He had a run of four consecutive games over 35 points before that bad game. He also has three or more TDs in four of the last five games. He gets 30+ touches more often than not so the volume is there. I see him ending his college career in style with a huge game.
Other Options: Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin), James Conner (Pitt), Jalen Hurd (Tennessee)
Wide Receiver
Tony Lippett (Michigan St) – Lippett was a plug-and-play to start the year when his salary was way too cheap. His price rose and his production dipped a little and he was a forgotten man over the last month of the season. This week his salary has dropped a little and the match up is great so I am having trouble leaving him off any of my lineups. Lippett is a TD machine and playing him in a game with a O/U around 70 screams of upside. Any WR that has 1100 yards and 12 TDs, against Baylor, with a salary of only $6300 is hard to fade. I only recommend not playing him if you are playing multiple lineups just to diversify your lineups.
De’Runnya Wilson (Mississippi St) – Wilson is far and away my favorite punt WR to target this week. I have been playing Wilson almost every week this year and the production is usually there even though his salary never rises. He scored a TD in the first five games he played this year and he found the end zone again last week. If you are playing Prescott at QB, I cannot see any reason you wouldn’t pair him with Wilson. He also has eight catches in each of his last two games. If you look at his game history, it looks like he took a zero against Vandy a couple of weeks ago, but they didn’t play him for precautionary reasons.
Bud Sasser (Missouri) Sasser (aka Rodney Dangerfield) just doesn’t get any respect in fantasy circles this year. He has similar stats to players with much higher salaries. A player with 70 catches for around 1000 yards and 10 TDs should not be a $5700 player. He is consistent too and has scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 of 13 games this year and has six 20-point performances along the way. I will be playing Sasser in most of my lineups again this week and taking his usual 15-20 points.
Other Options: Rashad Greene (Florida St), DeVante Parker (Louisville), Deontay Greenberry (Houston)
Tight End
Josiah Price (Michigan St) – Price is not my favorite TE to target this week, but I just can’t find enough salary savings to play anything other than a punt TE in most of my lineups. The matchup, however, is great for Price, and I see him having a really good chance at finding the end zone. Price is never going to rack up the points via receptions or yardage, so if you are going to play him, you are banking on the TD.
Nick O’Leary (Florida St) – O’Leary is a great play if you can find the salary savings to fit him into your lineup. He puts up stats similar to most WRs at the TE position. He has four TDs in the last three games and I think Winston will be looking his way again against Oregon in a very high-scoring game. I had great success during the season when I paid up at TE getting those extra points that most people don’t, because punting at TE is such a common way to build your lineups. This week is definitely a week to get low-owned, high-upside players and O’Leary fits that description.
Other Options: Evan Engram (Mississippi), Joshua Perkins (Washington)