CFL DFS Breakdown: Week 2
Welcome to the Week 2 CFL Breakdown.
First of all, thank you to everyone that read last week’s monster article and/or contributed in the CFL forum thread. I ended up winning first place in the $4 Kickoff Special. The lineup I used was Bo Levi Mitchell, John White, Greg Ellingson, Marquay McDaniel, Ernest Jackson, DeVier Posey and Toronto Defense.
My intention here is not to brag, but I do want to quickly mention the thought process behind the lineup and then a couple of oddities from last week.
First off, Bo Levi Mitchell was one of my favorite QBs last week. I had him on several lineups. I teamed him with Marquay McDaniel based on the fact that McDaniel had 111 targets in 16 games last season. Even though I said paying up at RB is not optimal, there was enough value to easily fit in John White. The logic behind the other plays is similar to what I mentioned in the article except for DeVier Posey. He was only 0.6% owned and not originally in my lineup. I used the late swap feature to add him on Saturday afternoon.
Last week was a bit strange in that the games spanned four days. This week, the games only span three days. With last week being the first game of the season, teams did not have to designate their injured reserve players until they released their depth chart 24 hours prior to kickoff. That led us to a weird situation where we knew there would be value at WR for Toronto but we couldn’t be entirely sure who it would be. When Toronto released their depth chart, they put WR Devon Wylie on the six-game IR. That opened a spot for DeVier Posey. On top of that, Hamilton announced that neither Abdul Kanneh nor Emanuel Davis would play. Kanneh is a short term injury while Davis was placed on the six-game IR along with safety Craig Butler. Davis was a CFL All-Star last season and is a huge loss for Hamilton’s defense. When I saw that news, I knew I wanted a small amount of DeVier Posey. He was all but guaranteed to be low-owned as most of the field was using Brandon Zylstra or Brandon Tyms for value at WR. I swapped in Posey on two of my teams in place of Tyms with the idea being that I could bypass all the Tyms owners. The move ended up working perfectly as my two Posey teams finished 1st and 11th. They were actually the exact same team except one had Toronto defense and the other had Hamilton.
Before we dive into this week’s slate, I want to clarify that last week was a strange week in the CFL. I can’t sum things up any better than SwedishFishy did in the forums. He gave four really good examples and compared them to NFL which most of you are more familiar with. Adarius Bowman and Emanuel Arceneaux can best be compared to Odell Backham and Julio Jones in the NFL. You’ll almost never see either player post a score under 10 points. Several top players like Terrence Toliver were injured during their games. Duron Carter also posted an uncharacteristic dud catching just two of nine targets. Meanwhile, the cheapest QB on the board (Ricky Ray) passed for 506 yards. As if that wasn’t enough, Travis Lulay and Cody Fajardo both scored rushing TDs. Both are backups QBs used exclusively in short yardage packages. That isn’t entirely uncommon but that was two TDs that were taken away from players that people actually used. Overall, we need to be aware of the results from Week One but we shouldn’t overvalue for players that we have a large sample telling us something different.
Quarterback
Bo Levi Mitchell vs. Ottawa, $10,400 – We’ll keep the same format again this week. I’ll rank all eight quarterbacks to give you an idea which offenses have the best matchups. Then I’ll suggest top tier, middle tier and value plays at RB and WR. The Stampeders play Calgary again this week. This game has an over/under of 58.5 which is the week’s highest. Mitchell posted a 31/376/2 line against the Stampeders after finishing second in passing yards last season. The RedBlacks didn’t really have an answer for Mitchell and I don’t expect them to this week either. He’s the safest option on the board.
Trevor Harris at Calgary, $10,100 – In the same game as Mitchell, Trevor Harris stands out as a strong play. Harris passed for 33/300/1 last week. He looked very comfortable running the offense and should only get better as he gets acclimated to his new weapons in Diontae Spencer and Kenny Shaw (when he returns from injury). Similar to Mitchell above, I expect another shootout this weekend and Vegas agrees with an over/under of 58.5.
Mike Reilly vs. Montreal, $10,200 – Last week against B.C. Mike Reilly disappointed with a 20/315/2 line. Reilly led the league in passing yards last season and also added in nine rushing touchdowns. Because of recent bias, I expect Reilly to be lower-owned than usual this week. I warned last week, that a B.C. Lions defense getting back Jay Lee and Ronnie Yell was a more difficult matchup than many assumed. The other reason Reilly gets ranked third this week is because of the loss of Derel Walker. The Eskimos seem to be replacing Walker with a committee involving Vidal Hazelton and Brandon Zylstra. They struggled to move the ball at times when Bowman was taken away. Montreal held Saskatchewan to just 16 points last week but that oversells how good this unit actually is.
Matt Nichols at Saskatchewan, $7,700 – The cheapest QB on the board this week is Matt Nichols. He posted a 327/3666/18 line last season in 15 games. I pointed out last week that Saskatchewan used the offseason to rebuild their offense while mostly ignoring defense. They were able to Darian Durant to just 233 yards last week but I’m not sold that this is a good defense. Using Nichols at QB opens up all kind of options for the rest of your lineup.
Jonathan Jennings at Toronto, $9,700 – The Argonauts managed to hold Hamilton without an offensive touchdown last week. Zach Collaros passed for just 242 yards as the Argonauts lived in the backfield picking up five sacks. That’s not going to happen this week though as the Lions have the league’s best offensive line. My main concern with paying for Jennings is that BC has a successful rushing attack. They picked up 130 yards and two rushing touchdowns last week. That limits Jennings upside especially if the game gets out of hand.
Darian Durant at Edmonton, $9,800 – Last week, Montreal passed for just 233 yards against Saskatchewan. Durant was able to salvage though by throwing two touchdowns. Durant did not look 100% comfortable yet with Ernest Jackson. He was only able to complete 20 of 31 passes. The concern here though is that Edmonton has an excellent pass rush as they picked up five sacks last week.
Kevin Glenn vs. Winnipeg, $7,900 – These last two rankings could easily be flip flopped. We haven’t seen this Winnipeg team yet this year but they did allow 335 yards per game through the air last season. Glenn posted a 31/298/1 line last week on 44 attempts. It’s a mistake to assume that kind of volume is going to be there for Glenn on a weekly basis.
Ricky Ray vs. B.C. Lions, $8,800 – Ricky Ray was last week’s cheapest QB yet ended up passing for 506 yards. My guess is that some people decide to chase the points here. This B.C. defense just held a much more talented Mike Reilly to 315 yards and two touchdowns. Ricky Ray was able to make it work with newly acquired S.J. Green and the young DeVier Posey but this is probably the least talented receiving core in the league overall.
Running Back
Top Tier
John White vs. Montreal, $7,700 – Last week John White posted a 17/104/1 line on the ground against a talented B.C. Lions defense. This week, he gets one of the best matchups in the league. Montreal allowed 108.3 rushing yards per game which was second worst in the league. Things didn’t change much last week as they allowed 103. White should benefit from a more balanced offense this season as the Eskimos try to replace Derel Walker’s production.
Jerome Messam vs. Ottawa, $7,400 – Last week against Ottawa, Jerome Messam picked up just 65 yards and a touchdown on the ground carrying the ball just 13 times. He was able to post a good score though with five catches for 19 yards. He draws the exact same matchup again this week. The PPR points here make Messam playable.
Andrew Harris at Saskatchewan, $7,400 – I mentioned above that I think the Saskatchewan defense is a bit soft. They allowed 99 rushing yards last week to Tyrell Sutton and company. This week they’ll face a much tougher task against Andrew Harris. He posted a 195/974/4 line last season in 15 games while adding an additional 67/631/1 through the air. Harris is a top play pretty much any week that he has a decent matchup.
Consider in Tournaments: Jeremiah Johnson ($7,300) and Chris Rainey ($6,600)
Middle Tier
Mossis Madu vs, Calgary, $5,100 – The middle tier is a bit thin this week. I personally will likely spend for a top RB on every team this week. If you insist on bargain shopping the situation to watch is in Ottawa. Last week, Mossis Madu was a surprise scratch leaving the starting job for William Powell. He had just 30 yards on five carries but was able to save his day with a six yard touchdown catch. The reason for the last of carries is that he appeared to injure his ankle. Right now, Powell is listed as the #1 RB while Mossis Madu is #2. Some Ottawa insiders are saying that they expect Powell to get scratched and Madu to draw the start. Madu isn’t extremely exciting but he’s realistically the cheapest starting RB I would play. You’ll have too monitor news all the way up until game time to make sure he is actually starting though. While we’re here, I wouldn’t recommend playing Brandon Gilanders who had 80 yards on 12 carries last week. He’s dropped to third on the depth chart with Mossis Madu back.
Consider in Tournaments: Tyrell Sutton ($6,100)
Punt Tier
Anthony Coombs vs. B.C. Lions, $3,900 – The Toronto Argonauts released their depth chart for Friday’s game and we finally have a couple of punt plays at RB. Brandon Whitaker is out. Per the depth chart, James Wilder Jr. will start in place of Whitaker. He’s a bigger RB at 6’2 232. The main issue is that Toronto does not run the ball often. Last week Whitaker had nine carries and Coombs had one. This team will target their RBs out of the backfield though. Whitaker had 100 targets last season and six in week one. Even Anthony Coombs was targeted four times. He actually starts at SB but is listed at RB on DK. While I suspect that at least some players will flock to James Wilder at $3,200, I prefer Coombs here simply for his PPR value.
Also Consider: James Wilder ($3,200)
Wide Receiver
Top Tier
Emmanueal Arceneeaux at Toronto, $9,300 – Last week, Arceneaux had an uncharacteristically bad game with just 5 fantasy points. The volume was there though as he was targeted eight times for a 25% target share. I’m not afraid to go back to the well here as Arceneaux has always been a high volume option. He had a 26.6% target share last season (8.5 Tgt/Gm).
Adarius Bowman vs. Montreal, $9,600 – The Lions sold out to stop Adarius Bowman last week. He only caught two passes for 13 yards as he was targeted just five times. Mike Reilly is the type of quarterback that will take what the defense gives him which mostly explains Bowman’s poor game. He averaged 9.88 Tgt/Gm last season and should benefit from Derel Walker leaving for the NFL.
Marquay McDaniel at Calgary, $8,400 – It sounds like DaVaris Daniels will be forced to miss this week’s game. Last season, Marquay McDaniel played nine games with Daniels and seven games without. In the nine games with he averaged 4.8/60.9/.01 for 11.9 DK points. In the seven games without, he averaged 5.7/75.1/.4 for 17.1 DK points. McDaniel also had three games over 100 yards without Daniels compared to just one with Daniels. We saw McDaniel targeted 15 times last week as he posted a monster score. He has the exact same matchup this week.
Duron Carter vs. Winnipeg, $7,400 – At some point, it’s going to seem like I’m recommending that you play all of last week’s busts. I sort of am though. Duron Carter managed to catch just two of his nine targets for 12 yards. He still owned a 19.6% target share. Carter is an NFL level talent and has a decent QB in Darian Durant throwing him the ball. This is a great price.
Also Consider: Naaman Roosevelt ($8,200), Weston Dressler ($8,100), Darvin Adams ($7,700) and Greg Ellingson ($6,900)
Middle Tier
Bryan Burnham at Toronto ($6,200) – The middle tier is absolutely loaded this week. The best play in this range though is Bryan Burnham. He only caught four of eight targets last week for 43 yards. The volume was there though. Even at just eight targets, he owned a 25% target share as B.C. mainly focused on running the ball. Burnham is about $600-$800 too cheap here.
Kamar Jorden vs. Ottawa ($6,000) – With Davaris Daniels injured, Kamar Jorden becomes the de facto number two WR in Calgary. Jorden saw 11 targets last week. He caught five of those for 72 yards and a touchdown. He also dropped what should have been another TD. We should see Mitchell look Jorden’s way often in the red zone now that Daniels is out.
Brandon Zylstra vs. Montreal ($6,100) – Brandon Zylstra was a chalk value play last week as he’s stepping into a larger role with Derel Walker gone. Zylstra caught seven of nine targets for 152 yards. That worked out to a 32.1% target share. We’ll likely see that drop some this week as Adarius Bowman gets more involved but Zylstra has proven he has the talent to be the number two option in this offense.
Nik Lewis at Edmonton ($5,900) – People are always disrespecting Nik Lewis but he quietly gets the job done week in and week out. He caught all five of his targets for just 60 yards last week. He doesn’t have a massive ceiling but he has an assured role in this offense and is almost always going to get you 10 points.
S.J. Green vs. B.C. Lions, ($6,700) – It pains me to rank S.J. Green this low but the matchup says I have to. We just saw the Lions shut down Adarius Bowman. Truthfully,, Green wouldn’t be ranked at all if it were not for his massive game last week. He had a seven catches for 124 yards on eight targets. He’s definitely Ricky Ray’s favorite option. Green is best sutie4d for tournaments.
Also Consider: Vidal Hazelton ($6,000), DeVier Posey ($6,000) and Nik Moore
Value Tier
Jeff Fuller vs. B.C. Lions, $4,200 – I’m probably recommending too many Argonauts for what is realistically a bad matchup. I can’t ignore Jell Fuller though. He caught three balls for 104 yards on six targets last week. He gets the same matchup that saw Duke Williams produce 110 yards and a touchdown on four targets. It’s hard to find this kind of target volume under $5,000.
L’Damian Washington at Saskatchewan, $3,000 – The fact that Winnipeg hasn’t played yet this season should leave some of their players underowned. Darrin Bauming of TSN Canada pointed out that the 6’4 rookie looked great this week in practice. In the final preseason game where the starters played the majority, Washington had two catches for 69 yards. If you need a $3,000 WR you can’t do any better than L’Damian Washington this week.
Juron Criner at Calgary, $4,800 – The expectation going into last week was that Kenny Shaw and Diontae Spencer would pick up the workload vacated by Chris Williams and Ernest Jackson. Kenny Shaw ended up sitting out after aggravating an injury in warmups. Juron Criner ended up with four catches for 35 yards and a touchdown on five targets. I don’t love the elevated price here but Criner is an option as long as he continues to play the same role.
Also Consider: LeMar Durant ($4,100), Armanti Edwards ($5,400) and Nic Demski ($4,300)
Defense
B.C. Lions at Toronto, $4,700 – As I said last week, I’ll often end playing 3-4 different defenses across my lineups in tournaments. I’ll often duplicate a team and then simply switch the defense. This is the least predictable position as evidenced by Toronto putting up last week’s top score. The way I pick my defense is by trying to find the worst QB and offensive line. This week, that honor goes to Ricky Ray. We saw Ray get sacked three times last week. The Lions have one of the best secondaries in the league and should be able to own this matchup.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers, $4,700 – The other QB I enjoy picking on is Kevin Glenn. The Roughriders upgraded their offense this season but they are still not a great unit as they managed to score just 16 points last week. Winnipeg is not an elite defense by any means but they did average 1.6 interceptions and 1.9 sacks per game last season.
Other Defenses – Be careful with the Edmonton Eskimos this week as they lost JC. Sherritt to injury. The middle linebacker was a key piece in stopping both the run and pass game. The Calgary Stampeders had one of the best defenses in the league last year but draw a tough matchup again as they’ll play Ottawa for the second week in a row. Lastly, I’m not sure why Montreal is the highest-priced defense this week. They have a really difficult matchup against Mike Reilly.
With that, we’ll get out of here for the week. If you have any questions or comments feel free to stop by the CFL Forum Thread where I’ll post depth charts as they come out and also mention any value plays that pop up.