CFL DFS Breakdown: Week 3
The CFL continues to roll on as we enter week three. If you follow me on Twitter, you probably saw that I managed to win a small GPP this past week. It was the $33 FRI-SAT GPP with a top prize of $700. On that team, I ended up punting QB with Matt Nichols and stacking four of the Blue Bombers together (Nichols, Harris, Dressler and Washington). I had some luck on my side as I managed to avoid John White who was 51%-owned. The reason I stacked Winnipeg though is the part of this story that is interesting.
In the CFL, teams are required to start a minimum of seven Canadian players. This is known as “the ratio.” In week one, we saw Hamilton get absolutely destroyed on defense as they were down a couple of Canadians and had to work some magic to comply with the ratio. Late in the week, I learned that middle linebacker Henoc Mumba was out. Riders GM Chris Jones publicly acknowledge that there would be a lot of “moving parts” to comply with the ratio. I knew this would be an upgrade to Andrew Harris and I also loved the roster I could build with Matt Nichols at just $7,700. Playing Nichols and Washington (who was $3,000) allowed me to fill out my roster with Adarius Bowman and Emmanuel Arceneaux.
This week, DK raised the prices for the lower-end QBs We might have to get a little more creative with value options in order to fit the best options. They did still leave several WRs ridiculously underpriced at around $6,000. Before we get started, let’s take a quick look at the matchups this week.
A couple of things stand out here. The BC Lions have been an elite unit allowing just 22.5 points per game. They’ll take on a Montreal team that has struggled to score with Darian Durant at QB. The Lions are one possible option when selecting your defense. We’ll also want to avoid using Montreal options. The other thing to be aware of is that Hamilton allowed five sacks in their only game. Zach Collaros had absolutely no time on offense. Also, 506 passing yards allowed by the Hamilton defense is worth mentioning. In that game, the Tigers Cats were without both Abdul Kanneh and Emmanuel Davis. It looks like Kanneh will be back this week however Davis is on the six-game injury list. Davis was a CFL all-star last year and an important piece on defense.
Quarterback
Bo Levi Mitchell at Winnipeg, $10,800 – For the third week in a row, Bo Levi Mitchell is my favorite QB. The over/under in this game is 59.5 with Calgary a four-point favorite. Mitchell is tied for the league lead with five TD passes. He’s playing at an elite level right now and is easily the safest option on the board even as the most expensive.
Trevor Harris vs. Toronto, $10,400 – For me, there’s a pretty large gap this week in terms of how much I trust Trevor Harris compared to Bo Levi Mitchell. I debated ranking Harris below Glenn who we’ll get to in a minute. What ultimately keeps Harris here for me is the talent in his WR corp. Harris has crushed it each of the past two weeks but both games were against the same opponent.
Kevin Glenn at Hamilton, $8,300 – This week’s punt special is Kevin Glenn against Hamilton. If you read the introduction above, you know the Tiger Cats will be missing Emmanuel Davis on defense again this week. In the only game they’ve played this season, Hamilton gave up 506 yards to Ricky Ray. I’m a fan of playing Kevin Glenn as part of an SSK stack (with Carter and Roosevelt) as well as imply playing Glenn on his own with one or zero of his pass-catchers.
Jonathon Jennings at Montreal, $10,600 – Of the QBs over $10K, Jonathon Jennings is the most difficult to trust on a week to week basis. Things will get better when Chris Williams eventually returns from injury but the main issue here is that BC has one of the best rushing offenses in the league. Jennings loses some value around the goal line as Jeremiah Johnson usually gets the short rushing TDs.
Matt Nichols vs. Calgary, $8,600 – Playing opposite Bo Levi Mitchell in the game with the highest over/under, Matt Nichols makes a decent amount of sense. He’s the last QB listed here that I would consider in cash games. Nichols was excellent last week passing for 331 yards and four touchdowns against a banged up Riders defense. The matchup is slightly tougher against Calgary but it’s certainly not insurmountable.
Ricky Ray at Ottawa, $8,500 – Ricky Ray has been a serviceable option the past two weeks but I have pretty much no interest here. Despite throwing for 833 yards in two games, Ray has thrown just two touchdown passes as the Argonauts struggle to finish off drives.
Zach Collaros vs. Saskatchewan, $9,800 – Until I see the Tiger Cats fix their issues on the offensive line I have no interest in paying this price for Zach Collaros. He was sacked five times in his only game this season. At one point late in the game he came off the field screaming at his offensive line.
Darian Durant vs. B.C. Lions, $9,700 – This is a matchup based fade for me. Montreal is averaging just 18 PPG and 119.5 passing yards. Meanwhile the B.C. Lions allow just 22.5 PPG. In my opinion, B.C. has the best secondary in the league with Ronnie Yell and T.J. Lee locking things down. I won’t be playing Durant in any format.
Running Back
Jeremiah Johnson at Montreal, $7,400 – Picking a RB is rough again this week. There aren’t a lot of great options outside of the top three. There is enough value to spend over $7K for the safety one of the top three gives you though. Jeremiah Johnson has 162 rushing yards on 23 carries this season. Montreal is an attackable unit on the ground. I have no issue paying for someone like Johnson. If the Lions dominate this game like I expect, there should be plenty of volume available.
Andrew Harris vs. Calgary, $7,400 – In his only game this season, Andrew Harris scored 15.5 DK points last week. He only managed 57 yards on 13 carries on the ground but saved his day catching six of seven targets for 38 yards through the air. Those seven targets for Harris actually give him an 18.9% target share which is the best of any RB and would even be decent for a WR.
Jerome Messam at Winnipeg, $7,100 – The other reliable option on a weekly basis is Jerome Messam. He has 27 carries for 116 yards and a TD on the ground this season. He’s also added 44 yards through the air catching seven of 10 targets. In cash games, you really need either Messam, Harris or Johnson this week.
Consider in Tournaments: Brandon Whitaker ($6,700) (if starting), Chris Rainey ($6,500) and Tyrell Sutton ($6,200)
Punt Tier
William Powell vs. Toronto, $4,600 – There isn’t much to love in the punt tier this week. I’m expecting William Powell to start this week ahead of Mossis Madu ($5,400). If the opposite ends up happening, you can slot Madu into this spot as well. Powell 5 carries for 30 yards and added a six yard touchdown through the air in week one before getting injured. Those are acceptable numbers for this price.
Anthony Coombs ($4,000) or James Wilder ($3,200) at Ottawa – Brandon Whitaker was a surprise scratch last week because of an ankle injury. If he’s good to go this week, you can completely cross James Wilder off the list. Wilder had almost no value in the passing game and is essentially a touchdown dependent option. Anthony Coombs would retain value though as he actually starts at SB alongside Whitaker. Coombs has caught eight of 10 targets for 44 yards in two games. This play is almost entirely based on getting PPR points from check-downs.
Consider In Tournaments: Cameron Marshall ($5,400)
Wide Receiver
Top Tier
Marquay McDaniel at Winnipeg, $8,200 – Pricing is a bit strange on DK this week. It appears that whoever does the pricing does not want to overreact to a two-game sample. Players who were expensive to start the year still are even if they’ve done nothing while cheaper options are still cheap even though they occupy increased roles this year. The one guy you can always trust at the top is Marquay McDaniel. He owns a 25.6% target share on the season. The main issue with McDaniel is that he’s not often targeted in the red zone. Especially with DaVaris Daniels likely back this week. I’ll still take the floor McDaniel offers those as a possession receiver between the 20s.
Luke Tasker at Saskatchewan, $8,700 – The other target hog at the top this week is Luke Tasker. He’s only played in one game but did own a 28.2% target share for Hamilton. My only issue with Tasker is whether or not Zach Collaros actually ends up having any time to throw. I personally think the optimal strategy this week is actually to load up the underpriced WRs in the $6,000 range. In fact, let’s go ahead and skip down there now.
Other Expensive Options: Weston Dressler ($8,300), Emmanuel Arceneaux ($9,500), Naaman Roosevelt ($8,200) and Duron Carter ($7,300)
Mid Tier
Greg Ellingson vs. Toronto, $6,700 – When I pulled stats this week and sorted by target share I was a little surprised to see where the leaders are priced. Bryan Burnham has the highest target share on the slate at 29% followed by Greg Ellingson at 28.8%. Somehow, both of these guys are still priced under $7000. Enjoy it while you can. Ellingson has caught 15 of 23 targets for 199 yards in two weeks. That’s insane volume for this price.
Bryan Burnham at Montreal, $6,100 – I already mentioned above that Burnham leads this slate with a 29% target share. He’s actually seen three less targets than Ellingson (20 vs. 23) but Burnham plays on a more run heavy offense thus he has a sees a higher percentage of targets. Until Chris Williams gets back, we aren’t likely to see this change here. Bryan Burnham is way underpriced at $6,100.
Nik Lewis vs. B.C. Lions, $6,000 – Nik Lewis gets his usual recommendation this week. The guy just quietly gets it done week in and week out. He’s caught 10 of his 11 targets on the season for 102 yards. He owns a 20.4% target share in this offense. The only bad news is that he gets a slight downgrade for matchup this week against the B.C. Lions.
S.J. Green at Ottawa, $6,400 – Coming into the season, there was some doubt about S.J. Green being healthy. He’s erased those doubts and is already a favorite target of Ricky Ray. He’s caught nine of 12 targets for 157 yards in two games. If Ottawa comes out firing as expected the Argonauts are going to have to put the ball in the air to keep up.
Kamar Jorden at Winnipeg, $6,200 – I almost listed Kamar Jorden in “consider in tournaments this week but I decided he gets a short mention because I need to highlight something. Jorden does own a very respectable 20.5% target share this season but he’s only caught eight of 16 targets. He’s scores have been carried by catching three touchdowns in two weeks. While Jorden is a popular target for Bo Levi Mitchell in the red zone his targets there were no doubt increased by DaVaris Daniels absence. Given that there are so many good plays in this range I’ll likely lower my exposure to Jorden this week until I see whether the red zone usage continues.
Consider in Tournaments: DeVier Posey ($6,000) and Diontae Spencer ($6,900)
Value Tier
Brian Tyms at Saskatchewan, $4,800 – I’m less excited about the value tier this week as I don’t think it is as necessary as usual. I’m a big fan of Brian Tyms though with Terrence Tolliver out. My assumption here is that Tyms will slide to boundary WR. He should see his target share increase in that position not to mention Tolliver’s usage has to go somewhere.
Nic Demski at Hamilton, $4,300 – If you are looking for a contrarian option to stack with Kevin Glenn, take a look at Nic Demski. The sure handed Demski has caught all 14 of his targets for 169 yards and a TD this season. We saw how poorly Hamilton played on defense in week one without Emanuel Davis. This is a great price for seven targets per game so far this season.
Jeff Fuller at Ottawa, $4,200 Jeff Fuller is out this week. If you played him, replace with either Tyms or Demski from above.
Consider in Tournaments: Junior Collins ($3,600), Dominique Rhymes ($3,000)
Defense
B.C. Lions vs. Montreal, ($4,800) – Selecting a defense is always a high variance proposition. This week, the B.C. Lions are my top defense by quite a bit. After that, you can poke holes in the matchup for any of the other five. The Lions draw a Montreal offense averaging just 18 PPG and 119.5 passing yards.
Calgary Stampeders ($4,900) – The stats won’t show this so far, but Calgary is the defense that I think has the best long term outlook this season. The problem is that they’ve played Edmonton twice. That makes it appear that they allow four passing TDs per game. Not everyone is Mike Reilly though. I think we see Calgary rebound this week even though Matt Nichols is still a somewhat difficult matchup here.
Toronto Argonauts ($4,600) – One thing that I try to mention often is that it’s okay to use players against your defense in CFL DFS. IF you are playing one or two RedBlacks that doesn’t mean you can’t use Toronto’s defense. They are averaging 3.5 sacks per game (help obviously by Edmonton giving up five week one).