CFL DFS Breakdown: Week 4
Greetings Grinders! Hopefully, you’ve had a chance to enjoy the MLB All-Star Break this week. The one positive for those of us that regularly play CFL is that during the MLB break we get larger prize pools. This week, DraftKings is running a $35 Flying Kick at the $8 price point with $5,000 going to first place. The increased prize pool will no doubt bring in some new life this week. In fact, maybe you are one of those new people yourself.
Before we dive into the picks this week, I’m not going to re-explain how CFL works but I’ll briefly hammer home the same point I’ve been preaching all year. The CFL is a passing league. DraftKings scoring awards one point per reception (aka PPR). The one thing we can generally predict is targets. The idea here is incredibly simple. We’re trying to fit as many high target options as possible in our lineups.
At this link you can find a Google document I made with the entire DK player pool and their associated stats. The document is read only meaning that for it to be the most useful you need to make your own copy that you can edit. To do this, click on File then create a copy. Once you do that, you’ll be able to sort on Targets, Target% (market share by team) or Targets Per Game.
Finally, below is an image showing the matchups for each individual team this week. The highlight colors are from the perspective of the offense. For example, HAM D allowing 443 passing yards per game is good for the B.C. Lions so that number is in green.
I’ll be referencing back to this chart in spots below but it’s certainly a helpful tool to get you a broad slate overview.
Quarterback
Jonathon Jennings at Hamilton, $10,800 – I’ll continue to follow the same format we’ve been using each week. In CFL tournaments, you want to stack your QB with at least one and preferably two of his pass catchers. By ranking all eight Quarterbacks I can give you an idea how the slate breaks down. From there, pick a couple of pass catchers to team with your QB and then fill in with some of the value options I’ll mention. We kick things off with Jonathon Jennings. He’ll take on a Tiger Cats defense that is allowing 34.5 PPG and 443 passing yards per game through two games. The Tiger Cats have started the season off poorly because they are missing both Emanuel Davis and Abdul Kaneah in the secondary. Kaneah returned to practice this week which should help but linebacker Will Hill picked up a one game suspension. While Jennings has yet to live up to his $10K price this season, He has the best matchup on the board this week.
Mike Reilly vs. Ottawa, $10,600 – A matchup against the RedBlacks should be the second-best matchup for any QB on the board this week. In fact, you could make a case for Reilly over Jennings pretty easily. The RedBlacks are allowing 33.3 PPG and 345.7 passing yards per game so far this season. Edmonton has one of the best passing attacks in the league with Bowman, Zylstra, Hazelton and Williams. This contest should be a shootout.
Trevor Harris at Edmonton, $10,100 – Opposite Mike Reilly, Trevor Harris should put the ball in the air plenty this week in what is expected to be a bit of a shootout. Looking at the matchup numbers here, Edmonton is allowing just 215 passing yards per game and 23 PPG. That’s not indicative of how good they are though. They’ve been getting run over on the ground allowing 118 rushing yards per game. That’s the slowed the pace down quite a bit. Ottawa is averaging 365 passing yards per game and 2.3 passing touchdowns.
Bo Levi Mitchell at Montreal, $10,500 – If you’ve been reading this piece weekly, you know this one hurts. I’ve ranked Mitchell as my number one QB each week. I’m a big fan. That said, I have some concerns about the pace of this game. Montreal is allowing just 20.7 PPG and 290.7 passing yards per game. That’s not because they are an elite unit. It’s because their run defense is terrible and they play a slow pace on offense. I have no doubt that Mitchell can easily solve this defense I’m just not sure that the Stampeders need a huge performance to win. Mitchell is best suited for tournaments.
Ricky Ray at Winnipeg, $9,800 – If you would have told me three weeks ago that Ricky Ray would be $9,800 this week I’m not sure I would have believed you. The 37 year old Ray, appears revitalized in Marc Trestman’s offense. He’s topped 300 yards every week so far this season. He’ll take on a Winnipeg defense that is allowing 34.5 PPG and 354.5 passing yards per game. If the price weren’t so high, Ray would have been the top QB this week.
Matt Nichols vs. Toronto, $8,700 – As the cheapest starting QB this week, Matt Nichols is your punt play. He’s the last QB listed here that I would even consider as I’m not using Durant or Collaros. Nichols had a huge game week two against a depleted Saskatchewan team and then turned right back into the Matt Nichols we all know so well last week. Admittedly, Calgary is a tough matchup so we can cut Nichols some slack. The only issue is that Toronto has been pretty good on defense this season. They are allowing just 22.7 PPG and lead the league with 4.7 sacks per game.
Darian Durant vs. Calgary, $9,500 – We don’t need to spend a lot of time here. Montreal has looked completely out of sync with Durant at QB. They are scoring just 17.3 PPG and only passing for 214.7 yards per game. This price is about $2,000 higher than it should be.
Zach Collaros vs. B.C Lions, $9,000 – If you’ve read this column weekly you know I prefer to avoid the B.C. Lions defense. Ronnie Yell and T.J. Lee are close to lock down corners. Hamilton’s offensive line has looked terrible this season as Collaros is getting sacked about three times per game and the Tiger Cats have rushed for a total of 43 yards in two games. They are getting absolutely no push up front.
Running Back
Top Tier
Jerome Messam at Montreal, $7,000 – In the Bo Levi Mitchell section above, I said that I think Calgary dominates this game. For that reason, I downgraded Mitchell but I’m giving Jerome Messam a corresponding upgrade. Messam has 44 carries for 187 yards and a TD in three games this season. He’s also added nine catches for 71 yards on 13 targets. That’s about 4.3 targets per game which is decent for a RB. The price is incredibly fair here for just $7,000.
Jeremiah Johnson at Hamilton, $7,800 – If you read CFL content elsewhere this week I suspect they’ll have this ranking and Messam flipped. Jeremiah Johnson has posted a 35/196/3 line on the ground with 11/118/1 added through the air on 14 targets. The knock on Johnson in the past was that he wasn’t involved in the passing game. Now that he’s getting about 4.7 targets per game he’s incredibly valuable.
Andrew Harris vs. Toronto, $7,500 – The main reason that Andrew Harris is so expensive is his role in the receiving game. In two games this year he’s posted 23/89/0 on the ground but chipped in 14/107/0 through the air on 15 targets. When you’re getting 7.5 targets per game out of the backfield you can afford to pay this price. Harris doesn’t have a massive ceiling but he’s generally pretty safe with passing game volume included.
Tyrell Sutton vs. Calgary, $6,900 – Somewhat out of nowhere, Tyrell Sutton is having a huge year. He’s posted a 34/210/1 line on the ground with 8/43/0 added on 12 targets through the air. Calgary is a pretty neutral matchup on the ground as they allow 80.7 rushing yards per game and have allowed three rushing TDs already. I would rather have Jerome Messam at this price but Sutton is an acceptable pivot for tournaments.
Consider in Tournaments: Travon Van ($6,800) and Mossis Madu ($6,900, only is starting)
Mid Tier
Brandon Whitaker at Winnipeg, $5,900 – Two weeks ago, Brandon Whitaker was a surprise scratch with an ankle injury. He returned last week to pick up 7/26/0 on the ground with 4/28/0 added through the air. He ended up sharing some snaps with James Wilder Jr. though who posted a 3/34/0 line on the ground. There isn’t a lot to love in the Mid-Tier. I personally would rather not pay $5,900 for a RB in a time share.
William Powell at Edmonton, $4,200 – Above I originally put a note next to Mossis Madu that he’s only playable if starting. For right now, it appears that William Powell is starting tomorrow. Coach Campbell said that if he were a betting man he’d bet Powell plays. He’s listed ahead of Madu on the depth chart. Powell hasn’t played since Week One where he scored 10.5 DK points before injuring his ankle. If Powell does in fact get the start here he’s the chalk cheap option. He’ll square off against an Eskimos defense that is allowing 118 yards per game on the ground.
Ross Schuerman vs. B.C. Lions ($4,400) – The other cheap RB that you can consider is Ross Schuerman. He drew the start last week in place of the injured John White. He posted a 5/19/0 line on the ground with 4/29/0 through the air on seven targets. The passing game work is what I’m interested in here. The Lions are a tough matchup on the ground but it wouldn’t take many check downs to return value here.
Consider In Tournaments: Chris Rainey ($6,000)
Punt Tier
James Wilder Jr. at Winnipeg, $3,200 – As I mentioned above, James Wilder Jr. split carries with Brandon Whitaker last week. That still ended up only being three carries. In all honesty, I doubt I’ll have any exposure here at all but I almost always get people asking if there is a $3K RB that they can play.
Consider in Tournaments: Anthony Coombs ($4,000)
Wide Receiver
Top Tier
Emmanuel Arceneaux at Hamilton, $9,000 – As I mentioned in the QB section, I generally build my tournament lineups as stacks. That means my WR selections are typically driven by my QB selection on that team. I still try to rank a couple of strong WRs every week in so you know where I stand. Emmanueal Arceneaux is my favorite option this week. He’s posted a 14/155/0 line on 23 targets through three games. That equates to a 21.3% target share. He’ll take on a Hamilton defense that is struggling in the secondary allowing 443 passing yards per game.
Adarius Bowman vs. Ottawa, $9,700 – Pretty much every week, Adarius Bowman deserves a mention. He’s posted an 11/130/1 line through two games. He struggled in week one as B.C. sold out to stop him but then bounced back in a huge way week two. He owns a 25% target share despite hardly being targeted in that opening game.
DaVaris Daniels at Montreal, $7,400 – This is somewhat of a sleeper pick. Marquay McDaniel tens to draw most of the interest on Calgary. It is Daniels that is the red zone threat. Daniels was injured towards the end of week one and then mostly shut down last week. His numbers look a little skewed at 7/129/0 but that’s not factoring in the injury. I’m predicting that Daniels finds his way to the end zone this weekend.
S.J. Green at Winnipeg, $7,600 – If you didn’t have S.J. Green last week you probably didn’t win anything. He’s easily been the best receiving option for Toronto posting a 19/367/1 line on 30 targets. He owns a 23.6% target share and averages 10 targets per game. The price went up $1200 but Green is still worth it based on the volume he’s seeing.
Other Strong Top Tier Plays: Weston Dressler ($8,600), Marquay McDaniel ($7,900) and Greg Ellingson ($8,400)
Mid Tier
Bryan Burnham at Hamilton, $6,000 – I’m starting to wonder if the pricing algorithm is broken on DraftKings. Bryan Burnham seems stuck at $6,000. He’s posted a 17/214/0 line on 28 targets. He owns a 25.9% target share at 9.3 targets per game. You simply can’t find that anywhere else for just $6,000.
Brad Sinopili at Edmonton, $6,900 – Another high volume option priced in the mid-range is Brad Sinopoli. He’s posted a 21/266/1 line on 29 targets. This Edmonton and Ottawa game is the one that I think has the highest shootout potential. Paying $6,900 for Sinopoli at 23.6% target share (9.6 per game) is certainly viable.
Brandon Zylstra vs. Ottawa, $6,700 – Sticking with the theme above of options from Edmonton and Ottawa I like Brandon Zylstra quite a bit. He’s only posted an 11/15/188 line through two games but his poor showing last week had more to do with Adarius Bowman posting a huge game. We saw last season that there is plenty of room for two top WRs to produce in this offense.
Armanti Edwards at Winnipeg, $5,900 – In this tier, I almost always find myself targeting either deep threats or WRs with a high catch rate. Armanti Edwards has posted an 18/233/1 line through three games. He’s only needed 19 targets to do that. He’s a reliable receiving option going against a Winnipeg defense that has allowed five passing TDs in just two games.
Also Consider: Diontae Spencer ($6,900), Luke Tasker ($5,600), Nick Moore ($5,100) Brian Tyms ($5,100) and Nik Lewis (5,600)
Punt Tier
Khalil Paden at Winnipeg, $3,800 – I’ll be the first to admit the punt tier this week looks pretty brutal. Khalil Paden is expected to start in place of the injured DeVier Posey. Through three games Posey posted a 19/280/2 line on 31 targets (10.3 per game). Paden is far less talented than Posey but that volume is going to have to go somewhere, right?
Joshua Stangsby at Edmonton, $4,500 – With Kenny Shaw still injured, Joshua Stangsby continues to start for Ottawa. He doesn’t have a lot of value in the passing game posting just a 9/104/1 line on 18 targets. He gets a slight bump in value though as a kick returner. He had 142 return yards Week One and 16 in Week Three.
Consider In Tournaments: Lemar Durant ($4,300), Dominique Rhymes ($3,000) and Marco Iannuzzi ($3,900)
Defense
B.C. Lions vs Zach Collaros, $5,200 – One of the reasons that I rank all eight QBs each week is because it also gives you an idea where I stand on the opposing defense. I’m not going to list out the case for every defense but they essentially go in reverse order based on the QB rankings above. The B.C. Lions are my top defense this week. They are allowing just 20 PPG and take on an offense that is averaging just 17.5. I think there’s some sneaky potential here to rack up quite a few sacks as well.
Calgary Stampeders vs. Darian Durant, $5,000 – We saw last week what Calgary could do as they posted a huge day against Montreal. The Stampeders were my top ranked defense coming into the season. Their numbers are a little skewed though from playing Ottawa twice. This is a strong unit with potential to generate sacks and interceptions going against an offense that has looked somewhat lost.
Toronto Argonauts vs. Matt Nichols, $4,700 – Last week, one of my best lineups was my Ottawa stack on which I also used Toronto’s defense even though they were playing each other. Even though Toronto allowed 25 points, they picked up five sacks and a defensive touchdown. In the CFL you can absolutely use a defense even if you have offensive players against them on the other side of the game. We’re targeting sacks and interceptions here. Toronto leads the league with 14 sacks (4.7 per game) and takes on a Winnipeg offense that has given up seven sacks in two games. Even if you’re playing S.J. Green or Andrew Harris tonight it doesn’t mean you can’t also play Toronto against them.
Good luck in your contests tonight and all weekend long. If you have any questions or comments feel free to join me in the CFL Week 4 Forum Thread.