CFL Grind Down: Week 2 (Thursday/Friday)

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2016-07-02 02:47:57

Welcome to the RotoGrinders CFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the CFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective.

We’ll take a look at 2015-2016 CFL statistics and highlight the strongest plays based on the numbers. We’ll also highlight key injuries and developing trends to help you identify the best plays for your CFL lineups. This article is meant to cover the basics. If you like someone for sound reasons don’t be afraid if they aren’t listed.

Week 1 Lessons Learned:

Low RB Production: Before we dive into Week 2, let’s take a quick look back at Week 1. As I tried to highlight in the Week 1 Grind Down, paying up for a RB is a risky proposition. Last season Tyler Sutton lead the CFL in rushing with 1059 yards while Jeremiah Johnson lead in rushing TDs with 9. Because the CFL has 3 downs instead of 4 most teams have something close to a 75-25 Pass/Rush split. As an example, here are RB touches from Week 1 including receptions: Sutton (MTL) 19, Harris (WPG) 19, Van (OTT) 19, White (EDM) 18. Let’s contrast that with WR targets. The most targeted receivers CFL Week 1 were: Bowman (EDM) 12, Carter (MTL) 11, Owens (HAM) 11, Gore (BC) 11, Sinopoli (OTT) 10, Shaw (TOR) 10. If a high floor is what you seek, then you should prioritize WRs with a high target rate over RBs. You also shouldn’t be using a RB in one of your Flex spots (ie: Playing two RBs).

Kick Returner Value: One thing that I neglected to highlight in last week’s Grind Down was that CFL scoring includes 1 point per 20 return yards. With quite a bit of scoring and only three downs on offense, CFL games feature many punts/kickoffs. The #1 kick returner for each team provides a really nice floor. For example, Brandon Banks had 198 total return yards. That’s almost 10 points before accounting for anything he did on offense. Even a player like C. Rainey—who only saw one offensive touch—finished with 21.15 DK points because he picked up 151 return yards and a TD. I will highlight the main returner for each team below. If you can use a returner in your RB slot or as a cheap WR then you probably want to go this route. Also, the Returner/Defense stack should not be overlooked. If Rainey runs in a 60-yard TD you get 3 points for the yards, 6 points for the TD and then you also get 6 points again for the same TD if you pair him with BC’s Defense.

Without further ado, let’s dive into the Week 2 CFL slate on DraftKings.

Ottawa Redblacks at Montreal Alouettes — THU 7:00 ET

Odds: Over/Under 54 (1 of 4), OTT (-1), Implied total OTT 28-MTL 26

Ottawa Quick Grind

Quarterback: With Henry Burris placed on the six-game injury list, Trevor Harris ($9800) and the Redblacks will travel to Montreal to face off against the Alouettes. Last week, the Alouettes allowed 303 yards and 1 TD to Drew Willy. Meanwhile, the duo of Burris/Harris threw for 541 yards in an overtime win against Edmonton. As I mentioned last week, Ottawa had four 1000-yard receivers last season and whoever is quarterbacking this offense is in play every single week even at $9800.

Running Game: Even though this situation looked like a timeshare coming into the season, Travon Van saw 100% of the Redblacks’ rushing attempts last week (12). Until we hear otherwise, we can safely assume Van is the starter and Travis Greene is not in play. Last week, Van tacked on 4 catches for 44 yards to go with his 47 rushing yards. Van’s opponent Montreal allowed 80 yards on 13 carries to Andrew Harris. I wouldn’t get overly excited about Van but the price is right at $6,000.

Pass Catchers: Every single week DFS players are going to agonize over which OTT WR to use. Chris Williams stole the show last week with 8/176/2 but Brad Sinopoli 9/84/1, Ernest Jackson 7/79/0, and Greg Ellingson 5/96/0 worked out just fine. Keep in mind that Ernest Jackson injured his shoulder last week and did not play in overtime. Assuming he’s a full go this week, I like the entire Redblacks WR corps against an Alouettes defense that starts two rookies at DB.

Kick Returner: I said I would mention every kick returner so I guess Jamill Smith ($4000) gets a shout out here. Smith returned 6 of 9 kicks for the Redblacks. There’s no issue with Smith’s price but his lack of a role on offense really hurts considering the limited roster spots. This would be different if he were a RB.

Montreal Quick Grind

Quarterback: Father Time continues to be undefeated but 37 year-old Kevin Glenn continues to test him anyways. Last week, Glenn threw for 332 yards and 1 TD against Winnipeg. The stat line oversells Glenn’s performance just a bit but he’s definitely a serviceable QB. This week he’ll face off against an Ottawa defense that allowed 383 yards and a TD to Mike Reilly in an overtime shootout. Glenn is priced in no man’s land at $8900 though. He’s the sixth most expensive QB. In my opinion, most of Glenn’s value rests in the fact that he has excellent WRs in Duron Carter and S.J. Green. In my lineups, I’ll mostly only have Glenn if I’m teaming him with one or both of his WRs.

Update: Vernon Adams Jr. is expected to make his CFL debut as the short-yardage QB tomorrow. Adams isn’t in play but you certainly have to downgrade Glenn a little bit.

Running Game: After seeing 15 carries last week, Tyrell Sutton gets a price increase to $7500. As I mentioned in the intro, paying at RB isn’t a smart move. With that said, Sutton’s line from last week would look much different had he not fumbled the ball on the 1-yard line on his way to a touchdown. I’m still down on Sutton overall but you have to pick one RB and his 13.5 DK points last week should have been 20+. Also, DK strangely made the THU-Only two-game slate prize pools bigger than the four-game slate. If you play that slate, you can’t use Rainey at RB which brings Sutton into play (though I would prefer Van).

Pass Catchers: I still fall where I did last week regarding Montreal WRs. Duron Carter ($8500) is expensive but he’s worth it. He does it all as evidenced by 8/96/0 receiving to go with 3/47/0 rushing. Carter was third in the CFL in receiving in 2014 before chasing his NFL dreams. He appears to have picked right back up where he left off. Opposite Carter, DraftKings still has absolutely no respect for my guy S.J. Green ($6900). He’s the clear number two WR in this offense but he’s just as capable as Carter of putting up a big line and there are plenty of targets to go around. Beyond Carter and Green, you could take a look at Kenny Stafford ($5100) 3/46/0 last week or Nikolas Lewis ($4500) who had 6/51/0. I’m not in love with either but it kind of depends whether we are talking about the two-game or four-game slate. You have to save money somewhere.

Kick Returner: Stefan Logan ($4500) handles the bulk of Montreal’s kick returns. Last week he totaled 81 yards which was good for 4.1 DK points. The only reason I would even have mild interest here is that Logan is a RB. On the THU-Only slate your choices for traditional starting RBs are: Sutton, Whitaker, Van and Steele. If the top RB finishes with 10 and you save a few thousand with Logan and get 4 you can probably live with that. I wouldn’t do this anywhere except GPPs though and only on the THU-Only slate.

Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders — THU 10:00 ET

Odds: Over/Under 51.5, TOR +3.5, Implied Total TOR 24-SSK 27

Toronto Quick Grind

Quarterback: Ricky Ray ($9300) and the Argonauts looked absolutely horrid last week against Hamilton. Toronto’s poor offensive line showed as Simoni Lawrence absolutely decimated them. Ray’s 17.4 DK points look respectable but it was anything but if you watched the game. The big problem here is that Toronto has absolutely no rushing attack so teams absolutely tee off on them. When you factor in that Toronto also uses backup Cody Fajardo in goal line situations, Ray has barely any value. This is a stay-away for me.

Running Game: I hope you guys enjoyed Anthony Coombs week as much as I did. The slot WR (listed at RB) put up an embarrassing week after being highly touted by me. If you are wondering what happened, Coombs lost several WR snaps to Kenny Shaw and Andre Durie but when he was on the field he was asked to stay in and block due to poor offensive line play. Coombs is in play again this week on the THU-Only slate but not on the THU-FRI slate where Rainey makes more sense.

As far as Toronto’s traditional RB, Brandon Whitaker picked up 2 yards on 3 carries. He did pick up 3 receptions for 26 yards but that still put his DK line at 5.8 points. I’m going out on a limb here and saying that you don’t want to pay $6100 for a RB that you could count up both his carries and yards on the five fingers of one hand. Let’s move on.

Pass Catchers: Coming into the season the foursome of Tori Gurley ($7500), Vidal Hazelton ($7200), Diontae Spencer ($7200) and Kevin Elliot ($5500) was highly touted. Spencer sat out last week and is likely out several more weeks while Kevin Elliott left with a shoulder injury and has an uncertain status for this week. (*Update: Elliott has been placed on the six-game injury list) Hazelton was the Argonauts’ best WR with a 7/61/2 line. The Spencer and Elliott injuries did open up room for Kenny Shaw ($4500) who went for 7/109/0. He’s certainly worth a look this week. Overall, I’m still way down on this unit. I’d rank them Hazelton, Gurley then Shaw and probably not even consider the rest.

Kick Returner: Anthony Coombs returned two punts last week for 25 yards but the main guy here is Larry Taylor ($3900). I don’t have any interest here as Taylor doesn’t have a defined role in the offense. He’s strictly a return specialist.

Saskatchewan Roughriders Quick Grind

Quarterback: The Roughriders are the only team we didn’t see in action last week. We’ll have to rely on 2015 statistics for this section. The Riders lost Darian Durant ($9000) to an ACL injury in Week 1 last season. He also missed the final nine games of 2014 with a torn tendon in his elbow. That means he has only played 11 games in two years. As if the injury issues weren’t bad enough, Durant lost his three best WRs (Smith, Dressler, and Getzlaf) to free agency. I expect Durant to be a bit rusty but he will be facing a Toronto defense that allowed 318 yards and 3 TDs to Masoli last week. I’m still advising caution here. I’d personally play it safe and avoid Durant until we see how he looks.

Running Game: The Riders rushing attack will be led by journeyman Curtis Steele ($5700). The 29-year old was in camp with Toronto last season before getting injured. He ultimately played only the last six games but he has averaged over 6 yards per carry during his career. The one positive here is that the Riders did lead the CFL in rushing last season while going 3-15. Both RBs who contributed to that are gone but it does prove they aren’t afraid to run the ball.

Pass Catchers: As I mentioned above, this is a tough situation to figure out. Dressler (114) Smith (84) and Getzlaf (49) took their 247 total targets with them as they left in free agency. That leaves Rob Bagg ($5800) who has been moved from slot WR to WR. He has the highest number of targets of anyone remaining on the roster. The Riders also have veterans John Chiles and Naaman Roosevelt who should both contribute heavily. The guy I really want though is Kendial Lawrence ($5900). Not only does Lawrence have a role in the offense as a slot WR, he also had 1634 return yards last season. Even if Durant looks shaky at QB, Lawrence is a strong play based on his price and expected return yards. He’s almost a must in the THU-Only but you can make that case that he isn’t needed in THU-FRI with so many other value options.

BC Lions at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — FRI 7:00 ET

Odds: Over/Under 50.5, BC +6.5, Implied Total BC 22-HAM 28

BC Lions Quick Grind

Quarterback: Jonathan Jennings ($8400) remains the cheapest QB again this week. Last week against Hamilton he threw for 248 yards and 0 TDs to go with 41 yards rushing. Those numbers are roughly in line with his 2004 yards in 7 games last season. Jennings also has a tough matchup this week against Hamilton who held Ricky Ray and Toronto to 282 yards last week. On top of that, I have concerns that Emmanuel Arceneaux isn’t 100% after taking a shot to his shoulder in the third quarter. I need to see Jennings show more upside before I can recommend him.

Running Game: As expected, Jeremiah Johnson ($7200) picked up the bulk of BC’s carries last week. Jennings did have 10 rushes from the QB position but the only other carry went to Chris Rainey who took it for a TD from 1 yard out on a trick play. The fact that Johnson didn’t get the goal line carry is concerning but it was a trick play. What really scares me is his low touches—only one reception and nine carries—take him out of play. The guy you really want is…

Chris Rainey ($5900), as I mentioned in the intro, RBs don’t provide much value. Playing a return man at RB provides a much safer floor. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Rainey racked up 151 return yards last week (including a punt return TD) to go with his 1-yard touchdown. I don’t think CFL is mainstream enough to have “chalk” plays yet but I expect Rainey to be one of the highest-owned players at least among sharp players.

Pass Catchers: What do we make of the BC passing attack? Last week, Bryan Burnham ($5300) had 5/88/0 and Shawn Gore ($3800) had 7/67/0. Some of that was possibly because Emmanuel Arcenaux ($8100) was playing hurt. He finished with 4/39/0. With Jennings’ questionable quarterbacking and Arcenaux possibly hurting there isn’t much to like here except Gore as a punt play.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats Quick Grind

Quarterback: Jeremiah Masoli ($8700) and the Tiger-Cats blew out Toronto last week 42-20. Masoli finished with 318 yards and 3 TDs. Many people are buying the Masoli hype and I even saw one person call him a poor man’s Marcus Mariota. As someone who watched the game, I’ll tell you the stat line overstates what Masoli actually did. His first TD pass to Fanutz should have been intercepted or at least knocked down. Things could have turned out much different for Masoli. They didn’t though, and we now have his 295-yard performance in the playoffs and last week’s 318-yarder to say maybe he is good. I’m going to begrudgingly give Masoli my recommendation as the cheapest QB you can play. He’s a better option than Jennings for sure and he’s at least on par with the QBs right above him (Glenn, Durant, Ray).

Running Game: CJ Gable ($6100) lost most of 2015 to injury. He played only 5 games but did manage to average 9.4 DK points per game. He carried the ball 11 times for 48 yards last week in a 42-20 blowout. The early Vegas line of Hamilton -7.5 implies we are looking at another blowout here. If that’s the case, game flow could add a few carries for Gable as Masoli is asked to do less. The big problem here is that you can have Rainey for $200 less and you are at least guaranteed return yards there. Playing Gable would be betting on a TD and he didn’t score any of those last year in 5 games. Again, it matters whether you are talking about the two-game or four-game slate.

Pass Catchers: If you decide to run Masoli out you might as well pair him with a WR or two. You certainly have some options here. Luke Tasker ($8300) is the top option. He went for 8/81/0 last week (He had a TD called back on a penalty too). Chad Owens ($7400) picked up 6/67/1 but I have my doubts if he can sustain that pace considering he was run out of Toronto after a dismal 2015 campaign that saw him finish with just 570 yards. Andrew Fanutz ($5800) is a bargain after he finished with 7/99/1 but I’ll caution again the TD was a bit fluky. The guy you really want though is….

Brandon Banks ($6200), how about this guy? His nickname is “Speedy B” for good reason. Banks racked up 198 return yards. As an added bonus, after Terrence Tolliver went down Banks saw the field on offense where he picked up 4 catches for 50 yards and a TD. We’ll need to check depth charts when they are released but even if Tolliver comes back this week I still love Banks just for his return yards. While you are at it, go ahead and pair him with Simoni Lawrence and the Tiger-Cats’ D.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Calgary Stampede — FRI 10:00 ET

Odds: Over/Under 49.5, WPG +10, Implied Total WPG 20-CGY 30

Winnipeg Quick Grind

Quarterback: Drew Willy ($9700) is the second most expensive QB this week at just $100 cheaper than Trevor Harris. Vegas set the Over/Under here at 49.5 but Calgary is listed as a -10 favorite. That means Calgary’s implied total is only about 20. Willy was nothing special last week passing for 303 yards and a TD against a defense starting two rookies at DB. I do have to cut Willy some slack though, he got it done without Weston Dressler most of the game. With that said, I’ll pay the extra $100 for Harris on the majority of my teams.

Running Game: Andrew Harris ($8000) is probably the best RB in the league. Maybe that isn’t saying much, but we know each week the Bombers are going to rely on Harris more than other teams rely on their RB. Last week Harris picked up 80 yards on just 13 carries and also added 6 catches for 40 yards. Harris is the only RB worth paying for but that will depend if you can find cheap WRs you trust.

Pass Catchers: Here we have another situation where we have to wait on injury news. Weston Dressler ($7300) sat out the entire preseason to recover last season’s injuries and then promptly got hurt seven minutes into Week 1. Prior to leaving with a concussion, Dressler had 3 catches for 22 yards. He is expected to play but we’ll have to wait until an hour before kickoff to confirm that. (Update: Weston Dressler has been confirmed out for Week 2) With Dressler out last week, Ryan Smith ($7700) went for 4/33/0 while Jace Davis ($3600) went for 5/82/0 and Darvin Adams ($7200) picked up a 64-yard garbage time touchdown to finish with a respectable 5/105/1 line. Now that we know Dressler is out I rank these three in the order they are priced Smith, Adams, then Davis.

Kick Returner: Quincy McDuffie ($4800) doesn’t provide much value as a WR —he had 1 catch for 3 yards— but he is the Bombers’ return man. He picked up 61 punt return yards and 88 kickoff return yards and 27 FG Return yards (yes, that’s a thing). That totals 176 yards which is worth 10.8 DK points. You can certainly do a lot worse than that for $4800.

Calgary Stampede Quick Grind

Quarterback: Bo Levi Mitchell ($9500) and the Stamps face the Bombers who allowed 322 yards last week to Kevin Glenn. Mitchell will certainly see that as good news considering he turned in the worst QB performance last week with 233 yards and a TD. That is a bit surprising since Mitchell passed for 4551 yards last year in 18 games. As I mentioned last week, Mitchell did lose two of his top three WRs in the offseason. If you want to go here, you’ll certainly get low ownership as many will click on Mitchell’s game log and see 12.9. He isn’t that bad, but he also isn’t worth $9500 when Harris is only $9800. At least not in cash games.

Running Game: Jerome Messam ($7100) was my top play at RB and someone I thought could contend for the rushing title this season. He sure made me look silly, rushing for just 16 yards on 7 carries but he did pick up a TD. I like Messam to rebound this week, but he won’t be getting a glowing endorsement from me as the price is getting too high and paying for a RB really cripples my team.

Pass Catchers: Coming into the season, Marquay McDaniel ($7300) was the lone 1000-yard receiver from 2015 left on the roster. The Stamps hoped either Joe West ($4000) or free-agent Bakari Grant ($5700) would step up. Instead, Bakari Grant was inactive before kickoff and West was less than impressive with 3/16/0. The one WR who did step up was Kamar Jorden ($6100) who finished with 3/73/1. Be careful chasing points though, offensive coordinator David Dickenson indicated that Jordan vs. Grant would be a week-to-week thing and Grant was spotted running with the starters again this week in practice.

Kick Returner: I’ve mentioned every other kick returner so why not Roy Finch (4400)? Well for starters, he only returned 6 of the available 9 Kickoffs/Field Goals/Punts. He is a $4400 RB though. His 139 return yards were good for 7 DK points too. If DK posts a Friday-Only slate and you want to fade Rainey and punt RB this is a viable route to go. I’d recommend teaming with Calgary’s Defense if you do and I’d only do it in GPPs.

With Winnipeg/Calgary being the last game on the slate, that does it for this week’s Grind Down. If you have any questions feel free to comment below. Also, make sure to head over to the forums and check out the CFL Strategy Thread. I’ll post depth charts there as they come out and be available to take any additional questions you have.