CFL Grind Down: Week 3 (Thursday/Friday)
Welcome to the RotoGrinders CFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the CFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective.
We’ll take a look at 2016 CFL statistics in order to highlight the strongest plays based on the numbers. We’ll also highlight key injuries and developing trends to help you identify the best plays for your CFL lineups. This article is meant to cover the basics. If you like someone for sound reasons don’t be afraid if they aren’t listed.
I’m changing things up just a bit this week. Instead of posting tables with limited stats for each team, I’m sharing my CFL research sheet. I’ve scraped 2016 stats for all players in the DK player pool and matched them to their salary. I’ve also added in matchup statistics for the team they are facing. I recommend right clicking on this link to open a new tab or browser. It is a Google document. You can then click “file” and “make a copy” which will allow you to edit, sort, or filter as necessary. It should be easier to follow along below if you are looking at the same stats I used while writing the article.
If this approach is popular, I’ll continue to do this going forward and possibly add more relevant statistics. Without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s four-game slate.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — THU 7:00 ET
Odds: O/U: 52, Spread: WPG +9, Implied Total: WPG 22 HAM 31
Hamilton
Quarterback – Jeremiah Masoli ($8800) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers this week after taking a 28-3 beating last week at the hands of the BC Lions. After dropping 28.72 DK points in Week1, Masoli fizzled out Week 2 with a pedestrian 26-for-39 248-yard effort (8.02 DK points). Before you get too far down on Masoli, that game was played in some ridiculous winds. There were points where I wondered if it was the wind forcing errant throws, then I remembered this is Jeremiah Masoli. The Vegas Over/Under of 52 implies there will be some points scored in this game. Masoli’s opponent here has allowed 641 yards and 3 TDs through two games. This should be a nice bounce-back spot for Masoli but his $8900 price tag is a little bit prohibitive.
Running Game – The Tiger-Cats played in a wind-game last week with Masoli at QB. I wish I could tell you that meant they leaned heavily on C.J. Gable ($5500). I wish I could tell you that! Instead, Gable ran the ball 7 times for 48 yards. Will that stop me from recommending Gable against the Bombers who have allowed 321 rushing yards and 3 TDs in two games? Of course not! Use some caution here, but you are getting a good RB against a terrible run defense for only $5500.
Pass Catchers – The Tiger-Cats WR corps has been riddled with injury thus far. Terrence Tolliver is out again this week while Tiquan Underwood is slated to return from a concussion. Based on the target data I collected, this is mostly a three-headed attack with Luke Tasker ($8400), Chad Owens ($7400), and Andy Fanutz ($6000) seeing 78% of the targets between them. Of the three, you want Tasker who was has hauled in 15 of his 17 targets. Tasker is obviously Masoli’s favorite target. Opposite Tasker, I’d love to recommend Owens but he has only hauled in 12 of his 21 targets. In his defense, many of his intended targets have sailed way over his head. As far as playability, Tasker is a strong play no matter what, while Owens and Fanutz are more like GPP options if you believe Masoli will bounce back.
Return Game – After a fantastic Week 1 performance, Brandon Banks ($6600) disappeared from the offense last week. As I mentioned before, returners provide a nice floor but you can’t pay $6600 for someone who doesn’t have an offensive role.
Winnipeg
Quarterback – Nothing has gone right so far this season for Drew Willy ($9400) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. They lost 14-22 to Montreal then 22-36 to Calgary. Willy’s game log on DK looks respectable with 22.82 and 29.22 points in those games but they oversell what he has done on the field. At $9400, Willy is the fourth most expensive QB which is probably about right. That’s exactly where I would rank him, middle-of-the-pack. Willy’s opponent, The Tiger-Cats have only allowed 523 passing yards and 3 TDs in two games. They’ve also picked up seven sacks behind All-Star Simoni Lawrence. It will be a challenge to Keep Willy upright, but he should see plenty of passing volume as the Bombers should be playing from behind most of the game.
Running Game – Andrew Harris ($7900) checks in as the most expensive RB again this week. Harris faces off against a defense that has only allowed 128 yards on 36 attempts (3.56 yards per attempt). What has been propping up Harris’ value thus far is 9 and 6 receptions the first two games. I’d expect Harris to see plenty of check-downs again this week but if I’m paying $7900, I’ll play an actual WR and I like several cheaper RBs more than Harris.
Passing Game – Weston Dressler ($7500) returns to action this week after getting knocked out in the first quarter of Week 1. Dressler played about eight minutes and racked up 3 catches on 3 targets for 22 yards. After Dressler went down, Darvin Adams ($7700) gained a huge bump in targets. Adams has 19 targets through two games. The biggest beneficiary though was Jace Davis ($4000) with 13 targets. The other guy in the mix here is Ryan Smith ($7100) who’s had a rather pedestrian 9/106/0 season on 13 targets. I think Dressler comes back into the mix and establishes himself as the PPR receiver you want. That should downgrade Adams and Smith while completely taking Davis out of the mix.
Return Game – Quincy McDuffie ($4400) will continue to return kicks but this is another situation where I have no interest in a player who doesn’t have a key role in the offense.
Toronto Argonauts at BC Lions — THU 10:00 ET
Odds: O/U: 50, Spread: TOR +5, Implied: TOR 23-BC 27
Toronto
Quarterback – Ricky Ray ($8900) and the Argonauts head to BC to take on a surprisingly stingy Lions defense. BC has only allowed 481 passing yards through two games. Keep in mind, the second of those games was against Masoli in the wind. The Lions have also picked up seven sacks through two games. That doesn’t bode well for Toronto’s poor offensive line which was destroyed opening night by Hamilton. Ricky Ray gets my last place ranking and by extension I’d also take a good long look at BC as my defense.
Running Game – Brandon Whitaker ($5600) has 14 rushes on the season for 42 yards. The BC Lions have allowed only 3.81 yards per attempt for a total of 99 yards on 26 tries all season. You are wasting your time reading this paragraph and I’m wasting my time writing it. Neither of us are playing Whitaker.
Pass Catchers – If you read the Ricky Ray section above, you already know where I’m going with this one. Kevin Elliot and Diontae Spencer are out again this week. That leaves Vidal Hazelton ($7600), Tori Gurley ($6900), and Kenny Shaw ($4800) as the main targets here. Hazelton is just too expensive after catching three TDs in two weeks and Gurley and Shaw just don’t deserve your consideration against an opponent that has only allowed 481 passing yards in two games.
Return Game – Maybe if Toronto gets run over by BC there will be plenty of kickoffs and punts for Larry Taylor ($3600). He’s scored 5.4 and 6.6 the last two weeks but again he isn’t playable without a role in the offense.
BC Lions
Quarterback – Some things never change. Here we are again, Jonathan Jennings ($7800) is the cheapest QB. The good news is this week he gets to face a Toronto defense that has allowed 628 yards in two games. Oh yeah, and they also start two rookie DBs. As if that isn’t enough, Jennings has the second-highest implied team total of 27 in a game with a 50 over/under. Playing Jennings at $7800 will net you $2000+ in savings versus the top options. On my teams, I’ll either pay all the way up for the top guys like Reilly/Harris or punt all the way down to Jennings.
Running Game – Here is an interesting spot where gamers can gain an edge this week. DK currently has an “O” next Anthony Allen ($4500) while Jeremiah Johnson ($6600) doesn’t have any injury indicator. That should probably be reversed. Johnson injured his ankle last week and is questionable. If Johnson can’t go, Anthony Allen ($4500) will be activated from the one-game injury list. Toronto has only allowed 140 rushing yards in two games but they are banged up on the D line. Be sure to check the depth charts to see whether Johnson, Allen, or both are active. I’ll update this portion once we know for sure.
7/7 Update: Jeremiah Johnson is out. Anthony Allen will start and is available for only $4500. He’s an excellent value play and should be considered for all formats.
Pass Catchers – This week, we have several intriguing high-priced options. We’ll need to save somewhere and the BC Lions WR corps looks like a great place. As I mentioned above, Toronto has allowed 628 passing yards in two games. Emmanuel Arceneaux ($8000) is the favorite target and is an excellent option stacked with Jennings. He has 19 targets on the season for 10/85/1. The other BC receivers are available on the cheap. Nick Moore ($6500), Bryan Burnham ($5000) and Shawn Gore ($4600) all deserve a look but Gore is the option I like the most with 8 targets per game for only $4600.
Return Game – Chris Rainey ($6100) was the “chalk” last week after his 21.2 DK points in Week 1. He picked up 149 return yards which was good for 7.5 DK points but his price of $6100 puts him out of range unless you are expecting a return TD. You would have to play him at the RB spot but it makes more sense to just use whoever starts for BC, especially if it is Anthony Allen.
Calgary Stampeders at Ottawa Redblacks — FRI 7:00 ET
Odds: O/U: 53, Spread: (Pick), Implied Total: CGY 26-OTT 27
Calgary
Quarterback – Bo Levi Mitchell ($9600) and the Stampeders head to Ottawa for what should be the CFL game-of-the-week. Vegas has the O/U at 53 and a “pick-em” which makes this both the highest O/U and the closest spread. Through two weeks, Ottawa has given up 661 passing yards and 2 TDs. Conversely, Mitchell has thrown for 542 yards and 3 TDs. The price is about right for Mitchell here. I don’t like him as much as Harris or Reilly but he’s safer than the other expensive options.
Running Game – Jerome Messam ($7500) absolutely dominated Winnipeg last week for 137 yards on 16 carries. That was against a porous Bombers defense though. The $7500 price tag has me scared away though. Just two weeks ago we saw Messam carry 5 times for 19 yards against what we now know was a stout BC defense. The fact that Ottawa allows just 3.7 yards per rush has makes me think Messam sees a carry volume closer to his Week 1 effort. I’ll let others pay up for Messam while I take the savings with other RBs in a better spot.
Pass Catchers – The Stamps’ passing attack has mostly been a three-headed monster with Marquay McDaniel ($7800), Kamar Jorden ($5900), and Joe West ($4400). In a game with a 53 O/U, I have no issue with any of these three. I think Joe West makes the most sense though. It’s hard to pass on 17 targets in two games for just $4400.
7-8 Update: Bakari Grant ($5300) is listed as starting ahead of Kamar Jorden. This doesn’t scream “Start Jorden” but it does mean you should reconsider using Jorden. especially if the bulk of the reps go to Grant.
Return Game – Roy Finch ($3800) gets the same endorsement as last week. He’s available as a RB, he’s cheap and he’ll get you about 5 points. That’s not normally something you target but it’s not like other $3800 RBs have a 5-point floor. Obviously, it is GPP-only and not something I would do unless everyone else on the team is in a prime spot.
Ottawa
Quarterback – Trevor Harris ($10,600) checks in as our most-expensive QB again this week. He scored 25.68 in just over a half Week 1 and then 32.3 last week starting for the injured Burris. Last season, this offense supported four different 1000-yard receivers. Even at $10,600, it still makes sense to use Harris if you can fit him. There is some merit in fading for GPPs though, as he should be highly-owned in a game with a 50 O/U.
Running Game – Travon Van was placed on the six-game injury list this week with a leg injury. The Redblacks brought in Nic Grigsby and Mossis Madu to compete for the RB spot. Neither of them are in the player pool this week. Inevitably, some people will play Kienan LaFrance ($4700) but you definitely shouldn’t. Mossis Madu is getting the start. I would actually be recommending Madu in this space if he were available on DK. Keep him in mind for the future.
Pass Catchers – Even as much as I like Madu, I think Ottawa puts this game in Trevor Harris’ hands. The question is how many Redblacks WRs can you afford? Chris Williams ($10,300) has averaged 39.5 DK points over the first two weeks. He’s actually caught 15 of his 16 targets, 3 TDs, and just to make things really unfair, picked up another 73 return yards. If you can afford him, you want him. Ernest Jackson ($7400), Brad Sinopili ($7300), and Greg Ellingson ($7200) have all done quite respectable as well. This is sort of a “pick your poison” offense. You can’t stop them all. My recommendation is to build multiple lineups and mix-and-match which Ottawa WR(s) you use.
Return Game – Getting 73 return yards from Chris Williams was fun last week but that only happened because Jamill Smith was injured. The Redblacks brought in Tristan Jackson this week and he should be returning kicks. He isn’t in the DK player pool though.
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos — FRI 10:00 ET
Odds: O/U:49.5, Spread:SSK +10, Implied Total: SSK 20-EDM 30
Saskatchewan
Quarterback – Darion Durant ($9000) saw his first action last week after missing the final 17 games of the 2015 season. Durant completed 31 of 48 passes for 310 yards and a TD. That was against Toronto though. This week he’ll face Edmonton who did allow 543 yards to Ottawa but was the leagues’ best defense last year. Until we see otherwise, I think we have to believe this Edmonton defense is more like the CFL Champion defense of a year ago and less like the one that Ottawa carved up for 543 yards. Durant is a stay-away for me this week, the only QB I like less is Ricky Ray.
Running Game – Curtis Steele ($6200) rushed for 10/61/0 last week while picking up 5/61/0 through the air. His 16.6 DK points look great but those were achieved against a much worse Toronto defense. I can’t imagine a scenario in which it is worth $6100 for Steele against Edmonton when you can have Allen, Gable, or White at similar prices.
Pass Catchers – Going into last week, we wondered who would emerge as Durant’s favorite target. The answer is now clear, Naaman Roosevelt ($7500) picked up 9/113/0 on 15 targets. After Rooosevelt, Durant targeted veteran John Chiles 7 times for 6/48/1 while Rob Bagg ($5200) went for 5/38/0 on 6 targets. Roosevelt is an absolute steal at $7500 if he sees anywhere near the same target volume.
Return Game – Last week, I loved Kendial Lawrence ($5900) based on an expected role in the offense (which didn’t materialize) plus his floor as a returner. He finished with 182 return yards which was good enough for 10.4 DK points. I like Lawrence better than the other returners mentioned but he doesn’t have an established offensive role either.
Edmonton
Quarterback – Mike Reilly ($10,400) checks in as our second most-expensive QB this week. Reilly and the Eskimos are 10 point favorites in a game with a 49.5 over/under. Even though Vegas thinks this will be a blowout, Edmonton is projected to score the most points of any offense on the slate. If you are building more than one lineup, you’ll want at least some exposure to Reilly unless you want to watch your potential winnings slip away in the final game.
Running Game – John White ($7000) and the Eskimos had the week off last week so many will forget about his 26.9-point performance Week 1. White sat out most of last year with an injury, but he looks like he’s fully healthy again to start this year. If the spread of plus 10 holds up in this game, White should see plenty of carries. Even if it doesn’t though, he’s a threat in the passing game. If I’m paying $7000+ I’d go with White over Messam/Harris.
Wide Receivers – Similar to the Ottawa WR situation, it might be tough to pay for more than one of the Edmonton WRs. Derel Walker ($9900) and Adarius Bowman ($9900) each went for over 20 DK points in the only game they’ve played thus far. Of the two, I like Bowman more as he saw 12 targets to Walker’s 8 but if I can make it work I’ll play both along with Reilly in an Edmonton GPP stack. If you can’t make both Walker and Bowman work, take a look at Nate Coehoorn ($4100). He was only able to haul in 3 of his 7 targets Week 1 but Reilly has shown a tendency to look his way when teams focus on taking Walker and Bowman away.
Return Game – Kenzel Doe ($3000) is the guy here but this isn’t something I’m highly interested in. Doe returned the majority of Edmonton’s kicks in week one but was only able to rack up 65 yards.
7-7 Edit: Kenzel Doe is inactive. Joe McKnight is handling return duties tonight. He’s available as a $3300 RB. He’s worth a look as he can get you exposure to the top receiving options.
That should do it for Week 3. If you have any questions feel free to comment below or come join the conversation on the CFL Week 3 forum thread. Good luck out there everyone!