CFL Grind Down: Week 4 (Wednesday-Saturday)
Welcome to the RotoGrinders CFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the CFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective.
We’ll take a look at 2016 CFL statistics in order to highlight the strongest plays based on the numbers. We’ll also highlight key injuries and developing trends to help you identify the best plays for your CFL lineups. This article is meant to cover the basics. If you like someone for sound reasons don’t be afraid if they aren’t listed.
Based on feedback from last week, I’ll continue to share my CFL sheet each week. Click on this link which will open a Google spreadsheet. Then click on “File,” “Make A Copy,” and you can sort and filter your version of the sheet as well as make any notes. When looking at WRs, I recommend filtering on Targets, Targets Per Game, and Target % to help find value plays.
DraftKings has a $50K Flying Kick for only $4 this week with $5,000 to 1st. Let’s dive into this four-game slate.
Ottawa Redblacks at Toronto Argonauts – WED 7:30 ET
Ottawa
Quarterback – Trevor Harris ($11,100) and the Redblacks kick off this week’s slate at Toronto. Harris is averaging 29.6 DK points per game since taking over for Henry Burris midway through Week 1. Harris gets an excellent matchup against Toronto who has allowed 916 yards and 5 TDs in three games. Harris won’t come cheap, but there is plenty of value if you want to make him fit.
Running Game – Nic Grigsby ($5100) checks in as this week’s first value option. With Travon Van placed on the six-game injury list last week, the Redblacks picked up Nic Grigsby and Mossis Madu to go along with Canadian Kienan Lafrance. Grigsby bounced around the CFL the last two seasons. He didn’t plan to play this season and was actually selling cars in Cape Coral, Florida last week. If you are lucky enough to win the $5,000 first prize this week in the Flying Kick, maybe you can use it to buy a Kia from Nic Grigsby. Last week, Grigsby scored 14.3 DK points playing the role of Travon Van. While Grigsby is no Matt Forte, he still catches plenty of passes (5 last week), and he can even sell you a Kia Forte! He’ a great play this week in any format.
Pass Catchers – I think I mention this every week but I’ll say it one more time for the new people. Ottawa had four different 1000-yard WRs last season. The Ottawa WR corps is a nightmare for both opposing defenses and fantasy players. The one guy you can count on production from is Chris Williams ($11,000). He’s averaging 41.1 DK PPG. He’s caught 25 of 28 targets for 493 yards and six TDs. At 5’8 and 174 pounds, Williams plays a role similar to what Wes Welker is in New England’s offense. After Williams, you can look to Brad Sinopoli ($7600), Greg Ellingson ($7300), Ernest Jackson ($6900), and then in deep GPPs maybe Jake Harty ($3200). I like Sinopili second-best on Ottawa but all of their WRs are capable of a blow-up fantasy performance.
Return Game – With return man Jamill Smith on the six-game injury list, the Redblacks are still looking for a full time returner. Tristan Jackson handled the bulk of the returns last week but he isnt in the DK player pool. Occasionally, Chris Williams returns kicks as well which is a nice bonus for those who can afford him.
Toronto
Quarterback – Ricky Ray ($8600) and the Argonauts should be playing catch-up most of this game. Even though he’s 36 years old, Ray has been a serviceable fantasy option this season. He’s only averaging 250.3 passing yards per game but his DK PPG average is propped up by five TDs. The matchup is decent for Ray with Ottawa allowing 340 pasing yards per game though. The big issue here is that Rakeem Cato (possibly) available as a value option and Reilly/Harris at the top end are much better plays. I see no reason to look to Ray at $8600.
Running Game – After I advised everyone to stay away from Brandon Whitaker ($6100) last week, he went out and picked up 97 yards on 13 carries en route to 22.2 DK points. I’m sure people will chase the points but Whitaker is not a smart pick this week. Toronto will be playing from behind which does add some value to Whitaker as a PPR back but he won’t get you what you need when other backs priced around him all have better matchups.
Pass Catchers – The Toronto WR corps is not where you should be looking for cash games this week but we’ll take a quick glance here anyways. Vidal Hazelton ($7200) is the big name here. He has 12/191/3 on 17 targets through three games. Tori Gurley ($7200) has actually outperformed Hazelton in every category except TDs though. Gurley has 11/188/1 on 20 targets. The other options to look at are: Andre Drurie ($4400), Kenny Shaw ($4300) and Wallace Miles ($3200) but realistically they should all three be avoided.
Return Game – It is risky to play someone who is strictly a returner by Larry Taylor ($3400) has picked up 5.4, 6.6, and 8.4 DK points just from return yards in three games. I would rather pay up for some of the value options closer to $4K that I’ll mention in a minute, but Taylor could be worth a look in a GPP.
Edmonton Eskimos at Winnipeg Blue Bombers – THU 8:30 ET
Edmonton
Quarterback – Mike Reilly ($10,800) is the second highest-priced QB this week but he actually gets the best matchup. Winnipeg has allowed 1008 passing yards and 5 TDs through three games. Reilly on the other hand, averages 383 passing yards per game. The issue with Reilly (or Harris) is that paying $11K for a QB limits your other options. With that said, you’ll want exposure to both, especially if you are multi-entering GPPs.
Running Game – John White ($7500) is averaging 23.6 DK PPG through two games. There isn’t any reason to think White slows down this week as Toronto has allowed 372 rushing yards and three TDs through three games. White is a safe option as he provides value on the ground (28/139/2) and through the air (9/63/1). While others are looking to cheaper RBs this week, White makes a sneaky-good option in GPPs. I wouldn’t recommend White for cash games though when Andrew Harris is just $100 more while Brandon Rutley and Nic Grigsby are significantly cheaper.
Pass Catchers – Last week, I said you would want some Edmonton exposure unless you wanted to watch your winnings slip away in the final game. That held true as Adarius Bowman ($10,400) went for 6/141/3. You’ll want some Bowman exposure again this week but I wouldn’t forget about Derel Walker ($9700). While Bowman stole the show, it seemed to come at Walker’s expense as he picked up just 5/51/0. This week, things could just as easily be reversed and Walker will be much lower-owned than Bowman. Last week, Nate Coehoorn ($4000) was highly-recommend in this space but finished with 2/29/0. He certainly had his opportunities though. He fell victim to another player who did make the most of his opportunity. That was Cory Watson ($4200) who went for 7/118/0. I’d use caution chasing points here though; on a week-to-week basis, Coehoorn should have a larger role than Watson. The last player worth mentioning here is Chris Getzlaf ($5600) who went for 3/32/1. I wouldn’t personally use Getzlaf but he’s certainly an option in large GPPs.
Return Game – Joe McKnight ($3100) returned the bulk of Edmonton’s kicks last week but he looked terrible doing it. I don’t think it’s a given that McKnight holds on to the job again this week. Even if he does, it makes sense to pay just a little more and use an actual RB instead of McKnight.
Winnipeg
Quarterback – Drew Willy ($9000) and the Bombers draw an interesting matchup this week against Edmonton. The Eskimos had the CFL’s best defense last year. Through two games this year though they have allowed 921 yards and eight TDs. Those games were against Burris/Harris and Darian Durant so we can probably cut the Eskimos a little bit of slack. As far as Willy, he has averaged 313.3 passing yards per game. Similar to Ricky Ray, Willy’s DK PPG has been propped up by four TDs. It’s hard to get excited about Willy at this price but outside of the top two no one else really jumps off page.
Running Game – Andrew Harris ($7600) is the most-expensive RB this week. That’s pretty much the case every week. Harris is arguably the best RB in the CFL. If you are looking for an NFL comp, think Le’Veon Bell. In three games, Harris has 34/156/0 on the ground and 23/165/0 through the air on 20 targets. With production like that, you can pretty much always count on Harris to get you something close to his 17 DK PPG. Once he finally finds the end zone, those numbers will look even better. Harris is a great play anytime you can afford him. He also should be very highly-owned as many players gravitate towards the most expensive option at each position.
Pass Catchers – One of the keys to success in DFS is projecting targets in a situation where the top option sits out or returns. We have two such situations this week. The first is Winnipeg. Darvin Adams ($7100), Weston Dressler ($7400), and Ryan Smith ($7000) all have similar prices. Dressler is still priced high on name value and Adams and Smith benefited from Dressler missing almost two games. Dressler makes an interesting GPP play as the numbers don’t really justify his price tag, yet he did see eight targets last week and he is still the main target in this offense. With Dressler back last week, Adams saw his targets drop to five, Smith saw nine, and Jace Davis saw nine. At ($4000) Jace Davis still makes a decent, but not great, punt option. As for the $7K+ guys Adams, Dressler, and Smith are all tough to recommend when the numbers plus expectations don’t really justify their price.
Return Game Quincy McDuffie ($3900) handles the return duties for the Bombers. He’s scored 12.1, 5.4 and 5.2 DK points so far. At $3900, I’d rather pay for Gore, Chambers or Coehoorn just to name a few.
Update: Quincy McDuffie is out. Moe Leggett will return kicks. He’s a defender so he isn’t in the DK player pool.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes – FRI 7:30 ET
Hamilton
Quarterback – This week the Tiger-Cats activated Zach Collaros from the six-game injury list but he isn’t going to start on Friday. Jeremiah Masoli ($8900) will continue keeping the seat warm. That’s pretty much the best way to describe Masoli. He’s been ok for fantasy purposes but was nearly benched at halftime last week because of three fumbles and two interceptions. The leash is getting shorter for Masoli, but he will probably be able to hold the job until Collaros returns in the next couple weeks. Masoli will face a Montreal team that has allowed 698 yards and four TDs in two games. He’s in consideration but I’m expecting him to finish about right in the middle of the QB pack this week.
Running Game – C.J. Gable ($5200) has 26 carries for 126 yards on the season. He’ll face a Montreal defense that has allowed 261 rushing yards through two games. If Hamilton gives Gable a chance, he could definitely pay off for those brave enough to use him. That’s a big if though, he’s only seen seven carries per game the last two weeks. Obviously, Grigsby and Rutley make more sense in this price range.
Pass Catchers – With the loss of Terrence Tolliver, the Tiger-Cats offense has mostly been a three-man show. Luke Tasker ($8600), Chad Owens ($7700) and Andy Fantuz ($6800) account for 70% of the Tiger-Cats target share. The rest has occasionally gone to Brandon Banks ($6600) (who is mostly a kick returner) and Tiquan Underwood ($4000) who missed Week 1, but has seen 13 targets in the two games since. Tasker’s price is creeping up but he has been a very steady cash-game option thus far. Owens actually has more targets than Tasker but a much worse catch rate. Fantuz on the other hand, has been a hit-or-miss option. I’d rather just pay down to Underwood if I’m looking here though.
Return Game – Brandon Banks ($6600) now has two return TDs in three weeks. They call him “Speedy B” for a reason. He also has a small role in the Tirger-Cats offense. The big problem here is that for $6600 you can get a mid-range WR who has a higher ceiling.
Montreal
Quarterback – Kevin Glenn did not practice this week and will not play. He gives way to Rakeem Cato ($6300) who automatically deserves cash-game consideration based solely what his price allows you to do elsewhere. I don’t expect Cato to go out and light the world on fire but he’s still a solid option. He started 12 games last year going 174/251 for 2167 yards and 9 TDs. Cato will face a Hamilton team that has given up 802 passing yards in three games. Playing Cato at QB is something you may want to do in order to get exposure to more high priced options such as Williams, Bowman or Walker but it isn’t something you have to do by any means.
Running Game – Earlier I mentioned Nic Grigsby filling in for Ottawa at $5200. I didn’t say he’s a must-play though because he’ll have competition from another fill-in RB. Montreal placed Tyrell Sutton on the six-game injury list with a sprained MCL. The Alouettes will look to Brandon Rutley ($5600) to fill the void. He’s certainly capable of doing that. I still like Grigsby slightly better, but Rutley is a close second at value RB. Both should see plenty of carries along with enough check downs to easily make value.
Pass Catchers – Two weeks ago, Duron Carter ($9400) scored a touchdown and then celebrated by knocking down the opposing coach and taking a stroll through their bench. That’s not something you are allowed to do, so the CFL suspended Carter for this week. He claims he doesn’t remember doing it and is appealing. If Carter’s appeal isn’t done by Friday, he can play. (By the way, it is looking like he will play.) As much as I like Duron Carter, $9400 is a lot to pay, especially in this matchup. If Carter sits (and even if he doesn’t) Nik Lewis ($5700) makes an decent value play. He’s averaging nine targets per game and has 15/165/0 on the season. There isn’t necessarily a lot of upside, but the price is right at $5700. With S.J. Green done for the season and Kenny Stafford on the six-game injury list, Montreal signed former Clemson WR Jacoby Ford. I’ll need to see the official depth chart before I’ll know if I have any interest in B.J. Cunningham, Samuel Giguere, or Kyle Graves (Ford isn’t available on DK).
Return Game – Stefan Logan ($4800) usually splits return duties with Duron Carter. Based on Logan being a $4800 RB this is a pretty easy situation to avoid.
BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders – SAT 7:00 ET
BC Lions
Quarterback – The general lack of offense Jonathan Jennings ($7700) provides finally got the best of him last week. Jennings was lifted mid-game for veteran Travis Lulay ($8000). At this point, we don’t know whether Lulay or Jennings will start on Saturday. Lulay is veteran who won Most Outstanding Player in 2011. He’s looked effective in relief and he’s certainly playable at this price. If Jennings starts, I would stay away as another quick hook is in play and Jennings hasn’t been great anyways. The Roughriders have also only allowed 564 passing yards through two games.
Running Back – Anthony Allen ($5900) was great last week filling in for the injured Jeremiah Johnson ($6200). Allen dropped 24.9 DK points but we’ll need to confirm Johnson is out again before we can use Allen with confidence. Even if that is the case, I still give both Grigsby and Rutley the edge as a value RB options.
Pass Catchers – Emmanuel Arceneaux ($8100) is the go-to WR in the offense but the quarterbacking is shaky to say the least. If Lulay starts, I’d upgrade Arcenaux slightly, but $8100 is not a good price. Shawn Gore ($5000) has been getting the job done as a value WR but his price is now getting to the point that he isn’t such a value anymore. Again, this matters whether Lulay or Jennings plays QB though. The rest of this bunch in Burnham ($4100), Moore ($5800) and Iannuzzi ($3000) are not really in play. By extension, I don’t mind playing the Roughriders defense this week.
Return Game – If Brandon Banks is the best returner in the CFL, Chris Rainey ($5900) is a close second. The problem here is that Rainey is a $5900 RB. That’s tough to make work with Aleen, Grigsby, and Rutley all cheaper.
Saskatchewan
Quarterback – After missing the final 17 games last season with an ACL injury, Darian Durant ($9400) looks fully recovered. Durant has thrown for over 300 yards in both games he played and racked up four touchdowns in an overtime loss to Edmonton last week. This week though Durant draws the toughest matchup on the board against a BC Lions defense that only allows 233 passing yards per game. I don’t love Durant’s price tag but outside of Harris and Reilly the QB position does not offer much safety this week. Durant is far behind the tops options but he should be safer than the QBs below him.
Running Game – Curtis Steele ($5900) has 18 carries for 108 yards while adding seven catches for 76 yards. Steele and the Roughriders will face a Lions’ defense that is vulnerable (69 yards per game) but at $5900, Steele is clearly behind Grigsby, Rutley, Allen, and Gable whom are all cheaper.
Pass Catchers – Naaman Roosevelt ($7800), looked like Durant’s favorite target in Week two then came back to earth last week with five catches for 50 yards. This Roughrider passing attack is still very hard to figure out after just two games. Shamawd Chambers ($3800) didn’t record a target week two and then hauled in 6/46/1 last week in an 11-target effort. The real surprise though was Ricky Collins ($4100) who has 10/171/1 on the year while averaging 6 targets per game. To make things even more confusing, Rob Bagg ($5300) and John Chiles ($5800) are also in the mix. Considering the difficult matchup against the Lions, it makes sense to fade this entire WR corps in cash until we get more clarity. Even in a GPP, the only option that makes sense is Collins but that kind of feels like chasing points. The price is right though at $4100.
Return Game – Kendial Lawrence ($5400) was brought in during the offseason to return kicks and possibly play some slot WR. So far, he’s mainly just returned kicks. He seems way down the depth chart at WR. There isn’t enough value here in just return yards.
That should do it for this week’s CFL Grind Down. As always, I’ll post depth charts in the CFL Forum Thread and add any additional thoughts. If you have questions, feel free to comment below or in the forums. Let’s get to work and make sure a Grinder takes down this $5000 first prize.