CFL Grind Down: Week 6 (Thursday-Sunday)
Welcome to the RotoGrinders CFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the CFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective.
We’ll take a look at 2016 CFL statistics in order to highlight the strongest plays based on the numbers. We’ll also highlight key injuries and developing trends to help you identify the best plays for your CFL lineups. This article is meant to cover the basics. If you like someone for sound reasons don’t be afraid if they aren’t listed.
Based on feedback from previous articles, I’ll continue to share my CFL sheet each week. Click on this link which will open a Google spreadsheet. Then click on “File,” “Make A Copy,” and you can sort and filter your version of the sheet as well as make any notes. When looking at WRs, I recommend filtering on Targets, Targets Per Game, and Target % to help find value plays.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Edmonton Eskimos — THU 7:30 PM ET
Winnipeg
Quarterback – After a 1-4 start and several lackluster performances, veteran Drew Willy has finally been yanked for Matt Nichols ($7500). In relief last week, Nichols went 9/15 for 88 yards and a TD. Nichols isn’t some unknown rookie, at 29, he’s actually just one year younger than Willy. He’s played in the CFL four seasons now. The last time we saw him play a significant amount of games was 2015 and he went 277/457 for 3245 yards and 18 TDs over 18 games. Nichols draws a decent matchup against Edmonton who has allowed 1,550 yards in four games. At this price, in a game with a 53+ over/under, I have no issue with Nichols.
Running Game – Andrew Harris ($7,200) has been very consistent this season. He had his worst game last week at 9.5 DK points, but every other week has been 16-18. What you get in Harris is a very safe floor with his role in the passing game. Harris actually sees 18% of the passing-game targets which would be good for a WR. The problem here is that you have to pay a premium for Harris. The matchup on the ground is also very tough as Edmonton has allowed just 208 rushing yards and one TD in four games. If I pay up for a RB, I’ll take John White on the opposite side of this game. Otherwise, I’ll opt for a value option. That relegates Andrew Harris to only GPPs for me.
Pass Catchers – I normally hate trying to handicap Winnipeg’s passing game. It’s much easier when things are whittled down with Ryan Smith out. We have three WRs to consider in Weston Dressler ($7700), Darvin Adams ($7300) and Jace Davis ($5100). Weston Dressler is the clear number one when he’s on the field, but he missed most of two games which inflated the stats of everyone else. We are talking about the highest over/under of the week though so I think you’ll want exposure here. After Dressler’s break-out performance last week, he’s the safest route to go. He had just three targets Week 1 before getting injured. In the three games since, he’s picked up 33 targets. Any time you can get 10+ targets for under $8K, on PPR site, you do it. As far as the other two, Darvin Adams does just fine as a #2 (7.8 Targets per game) and Jace Davis is a great play now that he has picked up additional targets with Smith out.
Edmonton
Quarterback – Say it with me, Mike “The Chalk” Reilly ($11,200). Through four games this season, Reilly has just one game under 30 DK points. Going back to last season, Reilly has passed for over 300 yards in seven straight games. Reilly gets to face an ailing Winnipeg secondary (more on that in a minute) who has allowed 1754 passing yards and 10 TD in five games. Reilly is pretty much a lock for 300 yards this week which means you are starting with 15 DK points (counting the 300+ bonus) before adding any TDs. You can make an argument that it’s possible to get your Reilly exposure through one of his WRs, but as far I am concerned, Reilly is the cash-game quarterback.
Running Game – If you rostered John White ($7500) every single week that he has played this season, you’ve only been disappointed once by his 8.8 against Winnipeg. His other three weeks were 15.6, 20.3, 26.9. It’s easier to find value at WR than RB this week and 15+ from your RB spot would be great. This is also a perfect matchup with Edmonton favored by 8.5 and Winnipeg giving up 494 yards on 92 attempts this season through five games. If we are talking strictly points, White should be the top RB. The problem is he is also the most-expensive RB and hurts your ability to use his offensive teammates.
Pass Catchers – The Bombers’ secondary has been ineffective this season but they’ve also faced some injuries. Their depth chart is already available Bruce Johnson will return from the six-game injury list this week and should be matched up on Adarius Bowman ($11,000). Mayo and Randle will sit for the Bombers this week though which gives way too Frederick and Johnson. Two weeks ago, when these same two teams played, Bowman went for 31.5, Walker went for 31.4, Watson went for 15.8, Getzlaf went for 5.2, and Coehoorn went for 4.9. With the injuries to WPG, you can play the same guys who did well two weeks ago (especially with Coehoorn out). Fire up as many of Bowman, Walker, Watson, (and maybe Getzlef) as you can get. In that order too.
Saskatchewan Roughrider at Montreal Alouettes — FRI 7:30 PM ET
Saskatchewan
Quarterback: – Darian Durant ($9200) missed last week with an injury. He was able to practice on Monday but as of today (Wednesday) he’s questionable for Friday’s game. If Durant can’t go, Mitchell Gale ($8000) was just fine in relief. Whichever or them starts will face a Montreal defense that has given up just 1160 passing yards in four games. Looking at the list of QBs this week though, it is kind of Reilly or bust. If Durant is healthy and starting, he would be about the second or third best option this week. If it is Gale, he’s probably the fourth or fifth.
Update: Darian Durant is out Friday. Mitchell Gale will start in his place. He is an excellent source of value. Last week against Ottawa he scored 20.9 DK points on 21/36 for 354 and a TD. He faces a Montreal defense that has allowed on 1160 yards in 4 games but has allowed 8 TDs.
Running Game – Curtis Steele ($4700) left last week in the first quarter with a leg injury. If Steele is able to go this week, his price is enticing in a matchup against MTL (who has given up 466 yards on 94 attempts). The bad news is that Steele didn’t practice today (Wednesday). We could possibly see Michael Dyer come off the practice roster (not on DK) or Ryan Lankford ($3000) get his first start. I don’t think Lankford makes a lot of sense other than a Haily Mary GPP play.
Pass Catchers – The one thing you can always count on with the Roughriders is Naaman Roosevelt ($8800) getting 10+ targets. He’s only had one down week, and that was with a tough matchup against BC’s Ronnie Yell. The big issue is that at $8800, you have to pay fair value for Roosevelt. He’s a top-10 WR option, but his price doesn’t scream play me like it did last week. If John Chiles ($5200) is out again (he is doubtful) this week, you can look to Nick Collins ($5200), Rob Bagg ($4900), and Nic Demski ($3900) but definitely make sure Chiles is out before using Demski. All of them are priced near players I like better though.
Montreal
Quarterback – Continuing this week’s theme of “Everyone is Injured” let’s discuss Kevin Glenn ($7700). After taking several hard shots on Monday, Glenn was able to practice today (Wednesday). He should be fine to start on Friday. Let’s be honest, we already know exactly who Kevin Glenn is. He’s started 3 games and picked up 13.56, 15, and 19.28 DK points. Are you looking for about 250 yards, a TD and an INT? If so, Kevin Glenn is your man. If not, pick Mike Reilly like everyone else, or one of the many injury fill-ins.
Running Game – Ever since Brandon Rutley ($6300) became the starter two weeks ago, I’ve been driving the Rutley bandwagon. In two starts, he has 11.9 and 17.3 DK points. Rutley gets a middling matchup against the Roughriders who have allowed 376 yards on 76 carries in four games. What you pay for with Rutley is his floor of 5+ targets in the passing game. If you aren’t paying up for White, and you don’t know Steele’s status for sure, Rutley is your safest cash-game option.
Pass Catchers – It is hard to get excited about the Toronto passing game given everything I mentioned above with Kevin Glenn. The only three guys worth looking at are Duron Carter ($9300), Nik Lewis ($6200), and B.J. Cunningham ($5100). If you are in Carter’s price range, you just take Roosevelt for cheaper, or pay up for Walker/Bowman. In Lewis’ range, you want Burnham, Shaw, and Collins. While Cunningham is just a fringe play anyways. Sorry Montreal, but your passing attack is GPP-only.
BC Lions at Calgary Stampeders — FRI 10:00 PM ET
BC Lions
Quarterback – You know it is a crazy week in the CFL when I’m even thinking about using Jonathan Jennings ($8500). I’ve already said Reilly is the cash-game QB, that is clear. With Jennings, just three weeks ago we saw him get benched mid-game. Two weeks ago—in the game Jennings scored 40.16—He was close to getting pulled before two blown coverage swung the game in favor of BC in a big way. This week, Jennings draws a matchup with CGY who has allowed 1,327 yards in four games. Around the industry, you’ll see Jennings as high as the second-best QB this week. I’m not going that far because I actually watched that SSK/BC game two weeks ago. The 40.16 DK points way oversells it. With the lack of other options this week, I’ll say that Jennings lands right about in the middle.
Running Game – Coming into the season, Jeremiah Johnson ($6100) and Anthony Allen ($6400) looked like a timeshare situation. The first two games, Johnson saw all of the carries before getting injured. The next two games, Allen saw all of the carries and picked up 13.5 and 24.9 DK points. If Johnson or Allen are named the starter, and get 100% of the carries, I like that person. If this is a timeshare, I like neither. Right now, we still don’t know how this will shake out. The safest thing to do is just use Rutley instead.
Update: Jeremiah Johnson is listed 4th on BC’s depth chart. He is likely to be inactive so you can play Anthony Allen with confidence again this week.
Pass Catchers – If you played Nick Moore last week, I’m sure you enjoyed his touchdown. So did he, as he celebrated so hard he injured himself and ended his season. The good news is that opens things up this week for Emmanueal Arceneaux ($7800), Nick Moore ($6000), Bryan Burnham ($5000), Shawn Gore ($5900), Geraldo Boldewjin ($3000). I don’t need to tell you about Arceneaux —who is an excellent option— or Burnham, who will step into Nick Moore’s position. The guy I want to highlight is Boldewjin. If you want to fit all these expensive pieces, you’ll need a $3,000 punt. Boldewjin is the guy you want. Yes, I know, his game log shows all zeros. He’ll be starting though, and the coaching staff has a lot of confidence in him.
Calgary
Quarterback – Earlier when I said everyone is injured, I lied. Bo Levi Mitchell isn’t injured, he’s just sitting here at $10,300. Oh yeah, he also has the toughest matchup this week against the BC Lions —who have only allowed 1,115 passing yards in four games. If you are reading this for one of the shorter slates that doesn’t include all of the games, I still don’t like Mitchell. I’d take Burris over Mitchell if he gets the start. Otherwise, punt with Jensen, Jennings, or Gale if he starts.
Running Game – If you think what I just said about Mitchell was mean, say hi to Jerome Messam ($7100). There are about eight guys I would pick at RB ahead of Messam. This matchup is terrible against a BC defense that has allowed just 242 rushing yards in four games. Messam played this same defense Week 1 and put up 9.4 DK points (7/16/1 on the ground and 1/8/0 through the air). You can’t pay $7100 and pray you get saved by a TD again like he did Week 1.
Pass Catchers – Marquay McDaniel ($8500) is usually a good option but receivers who play the strong-side slot have struggled against BC. McDaniel scored just 4 DK points in this same matchup Week 1. Your opponents will hopefully fall into the trap and chase McDaniel’s 21 points last week. I would fade McDaniel even in GPPs and especially to gain an edge on the short slates. As far as the rest of the WR corps, make sure to avoid whoever is lined up on Ronnie Yell’s side (which might be newcomer Greg Wilson) but the targets have to go somewhere. Bakari Grant ($5800) could be usable and it also looks like Lemar Durant ($4300) will make his first start since injuring his ankle. These aren’t options to use above Shaw/Burnham/Watson but you can consider them in GPP on Fri-Only slates.
Toronto Argonauts at Ottawa Redblacks — SUN 7:30 PM ET
Toronto
Quarterback – After suffering an MCL injury last week, Ricky Ray will be sidelined for several weeks. Toronto will turn to Logan Kilgore ($7000) this week. He’ll make his first start against an Ottawa defense that has allowed 1,648 yards and six TDs in four games. If you are looking for an endorsement here, I’ll give you one. Ottawa’s defense is worth a look in this matchup. They are the top defense for both cash and GPP this week.
Running Game – If you watched last week’s game, you may have noticed a few series where Toronto pulled Brandon Whitaker ($6800) and instead used Anthony Coombs ($4100) and Andre Durie in the backfield. You can make a much stronger case for playing Coombs this week-who has scored a TD in two straight games—over Whitaker. I probably won’t be using anyone in this backfield.
Pass Catchers – Keep an eye on Vidal Hazelton ($7000), who took a vicious helmet-to-helmet shot on Monday. He shook it off and finished the game but was largely ineffective. The guy who looked like Toronto’s #1 WR was Kenny Shaw ($5500). He’s worth a play in all formats. Beyond those two, I don’t see anyone else worth playing when compared to similarly-priced players already mentioned.
Ottawa
Quarterback – How bold are you feeling this week? Henry Burris has been activated from the six-game injury list and will start Sunsay. As I’ve mentioned throughout this article, Mike Reilly is the QB you want in cash games. He should be the highest-owned QB by a wide margin. After that, you’ll see a smattering of other options. The pretty clear second option is Burris but his ownership will pale compared to Reilly. Burris passed for over 4500 yards last season. He’s worth a couple of GPP entries at least.
Running Game – Nic Grigsby ($6300) has not disappointed yet in his three starts. He has games of 11.1, 14.4, and 14.3 in those three games. Running back is very thin this week. Nic Grisby is at least in the top three options. Toronto has allowed 402 rushing yards and 4 TDs in 5 games.
Pass Catchers – After a ridiculous start to the season, Chris Williams ($10,600) came back to earth the last two games with a 13.5 two weeks ago, and 2.85 in a game which Harris went down after just three passes. If I had to bet on it, I would guess whomever starts this week will be sure to look William’s way early and often. With that said, you can’t play Williams over Bowman/Walker in anything but a GPP. During Williams two duds, Brad Sinopoli ($8000) and Greg Ellingson ($7600) alternated scoring 30+ and five. That’s pretty much the nature of this offense, all of the top four WRs are in play, but it’s hard to predict who will get the hot hand. I have them ranked Williams, Ellingson, Sinopoli, then Jackson this week.
That should do it for this week. If you have any further questions make sure to head over to the CFL Week 6 thread. I’ll post updates, depth charts, and answer any questions you have in that thread.