CFL Grind Down: Week 7 (Wednesday-Saturday)
Welcome to the RotoGrinders CFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the CFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective.
We’ll take a look at 2016 CFL statistics in order to highlight the strongest plays based on the numbers. We’ll also highlight key injuries and developing trends to help you identify the best plays for your CFL lineups. This article is meant to cover the basics. If you like someone for sound reasons don’t be afraid if they aren’t listed.
Based on feedback from previous articles, I’ll continue to share my CFL sheet each week. Click on this link which will open a Google spreadsheet. Then click on “File,” “Make A Copy,” and you can sort and filter your version of the sheet as well as make any notes. When looking at WRs, I recommend filtering on Targets, Targets Per Game, and Target % to help find value plays.
Hamilton at Winnipeg — WED 8:30 PM ET
Hamilton
Quarterback – For at least another week, Jeremiah Masoli ($8700) will hold down the fort at QB for the Tiger-Cats. Masoli has been a very up-and-down option this season. He has games of 28, 8, 22, 8, and 32. He draws a matchup this week against Winnipeg who has allowed 2129 passing yards in 6 games (354.83 ypg) to go with 11 TDs and 6 INTs. We’ve already seen Masoli once in this matchup. Week 3 Masoli put up 21.98DK points against this same squad. Masoli isn’t the top option at QB this week but the price is right here at $8700.
Running Game – C.J. Gable ($5200) gets the same endorsement that he gets every week. Gable is a very talented back. If we could count on Gable getting a decent amount of touches he would be one of the top options. Gable draws a matchup this week with a team who has allowed 514 rushing yards in 6 games. I love Gable’s price here but we already saw him in this matchup once. He only scored 5.2 DK points Week 3 on just seven carries (plus one reception). The matchup is fine, but Gable’s track record tells us he’s too inconsistent for anything other than a GPP flyer.
Pass Catchers – As I mentioned in the Masoli section above, this Winnipeg defense can be beat through the air with relative ease. There should be a decent number of yards and touchdowns to go around. At $8500 Luke Tasker is a tough sell though. He’s only seeing 7.8 targets per game and he still hasn’t scored a single TD. Chad Owens ($7400) makes more sense. Owens is averaging 8.4 targets per game and is obviously a favorite target of Masoli. The other option of Hamilton’s Big Three is Andy Fantuz who is seeing 7.2 targets per game. Fantuz actually has the highest DK PPG of any Hamilton WR but that is propped up by four TDs. If you have to pay the same price for Fantuz as Owens you might as well just take Owens. The last options here are Brandon Banks ($6800) —who gets most of his points in the return game— yet costs the same as a mid-range WR, Terrence Toliver ($6400) —who didn’t play last time against WPG—but is a strong option. The other guys are Tiquan Underwood ($4500) who is now bank on the bench and isn’t playable, and Spencer Watt ($3300) who isn’t seeing enough targets to be worth a punt with cheap options elsewhere.
Winnipeg
Quarterback – We probably don’t need to spend a lot of time on Matt Nichols ($7500) this week. Not only does he have a ridiculously difficult matchup against a Hamilton team that has only allowed 1394 passing yards and 7 TDs in 5 games, but the Bombers are also missing their top three WRs. On top of that, Hamilton has picked up 20 sacks this season. The only thing I can recommend here is the Tiger-Cats’ defense in your cash games this week.
Running Game – Last week, we learned that the matchup doesn’t necessarily matter for Andrew Harris ($7400) who scored 21.7 DK points against Edmonton. While Harris provides a great floor with his receiving ability out of the backfield, he ranks in the middle of the RB options for me when I factor in his price. The Bombers should lean heavily on Harris this week but there is no way the Tiger-Cats allow the Bomber’s biggest offensive threat to beat them by himself.
Pass Catchers – Above I linked the Bomber’s depth chart for this week. At WR, they are starting K. Adams, Denmark, Kohlert, Davis and Mayo. Of those five, Denmark and Mayo are not available on DK. That leaves Jace Davis ($5100), Rory Kohlert ($4100), Kris Adams ($3000) and Quincy McDuffie ($4200) (who is the kick returner and backup slot WR). As I mentioned with Nichols, I don’t have high expectations for this offense. That said, there are going to be targets to go around. Jace Davis is a decent mid-range option and Kohlert/Adams can be considered in GPPs with Adams as a fringe punt for cash games.
BC Lions at Montreal — THU 7:00 PM ET
BC Lions
Quarterback – Jonathan Jennings ($8900) is playing like a man possessed the last two weeks, scoring 40.16 and 37.36 DK points. That has driven his price to the fourth most expensive QB. I hate to be the guy to pour water on Jennings but he’ll face a Montreal defense that has allowed just 1371 passing yards in five games (274.2 YPG). The main issue here is $8900 is too much to pay for Jennings when his ownership will be higher than it should be. Jennings is a middle-of-the pack option this week.
Running Game – At some point, Jeremiah Johnson ($6100) is going to return from his ankle injury and sap all the value out of using Anthony Allen ($6900). Montreal has allowed 528 yards in five games which is a great matchup. The big issue here is whether or not Johnson is active. If Johnson is out, Allen is a decent play (though the price is getting too high), however if Johnson plays, I think you need to avoid both Johnson and Allen. The other guy worth mentioning here is Chris Rainey ($5800) who mostly just returns kicks but he does that very well. With 100 return yards being worth 5 points, I would actually prefer to just play Rainey over many similarly-priced options.
Pass Catchers – Last week, we had our first look at this BC Lions offense without Nick Moore. The main target is still Emmanuel Arceneaux ($7800) who is averaging 14.1DK PPG on 9 targets per game. He is a very strong option at that price. With Moore out, we saw Bryan Burnham ($5700) have a huge game with 9/139/1 for 31.9 DK points, while Geraldo Boldewijn ($3600) went for 2/24/1 for 10.4DK points, and Shawn Gore ($6200) went for 3/54/1 for 14.4DK points. If I’m taking a BC Lion WR, I would rather have Arceneaux’s targets or take the savings with Burnham/Boldewijn.
Montreal
Quarterback – There’s a good chance that Kevin Glenn ($7500) reads this article. After I insulted him last week saying he would probably get you 240 yards, a TD and an INT he went out and dropped 299/2/0 for 20.66 DK points. He was actually pulled in the blowout which prevented him from getting the 300-yard bonus. Well, guess what Kevin, I’m giving you an even worse outlook this week. Glenn will face a BC Lions defense that has allowed just 1479 passing yards in 5 games. That doesn’t sound that bad, but it is inflated by the last two weeks when SSK passed for 429 and CGY passed for 396 in an overtime game. BC has some injuries on defense but I think they return to their earlier season shut down form.
Running Game – It was really tempting to just type “NO” for this section and not even cover Brandon Rutley ($6700). I wouldn’t do that to you though. Instead, I’ll just say some mean things about Rutley. Not only is he way too expensive, he also faces a Lions defense that has allowed just 345 rushing yards and 2 TDs in 5 games. Rutley is priced up because of three excellent games in a row but he seems highly unlikely to duplicate that effort against a very strong BC run defense.
Pass Catchers – Montreal’s WR corps faces a tough challenge this week against a very good BC defense. With that said, this defense is beatable. Almost every week I love Duron Carter ($9300) but I think you have to avoid him this week in a matchup against Ronnie Yell. If Carter does indeed get shut down, it should open some targets for Nik Lewis ($6100), B.J. Cunningham ($4700), and Samuel Giguere ($3200). In cash games, I think you can avoid the entire Montreal offense. In GPPs, the only options to even consider are Lewis and Cunningham in that order.
Saskatchewan at Calgary — THU 10:00 PM ET
Saskatchewan
Quarterback – Darian Durant ($9200) took most of the first team snaps in practice on Monday and it sounds like he will be ready to go on Thursday. That is a welcome relief for those of us who had to watch Mitchell Gale lead this Riders offense to three points last week. Durant will face a Calgary team that has given up 1723 yards and 9 TDs in five games. That isn’t a spectacular matchup but Durant is a good QB and he’s priced basically the same as Jennings and Masoli. If I’m ranking the three I would go Masoli, Durant (close second) and then Jennings.
Running Game – The Calgary defense has only allowed 354 rushing yards on 85 attempts (4.16 YPC) but whoever starts for Saskatchewan could offer some value. The Riders placed Curtis Steele on the six-game injury list and cut last week’s starter Michael Dyer. Kendial Lawrence ($3800, who is listed at WR on DK) will start at RB. The Riders will also use Matt Walker ($3500) who should see the bulk or the actual carries while Lawrence gets the passing game work. Of the two, Lawrence is much safer as he also returns kicks. That doesn’t help fill your RB spot on DK though.
Pass Catchers – The fact that Naaman Roosevelt ($9000) sees 11.2 targets per game speaks to both his talent and the lack of other options for SSK. Those other options are Ricky Collins ($4900), John Chiles ($4800)- who hasn’t played I two weeks—, Robert Bagg ($4300), Shamawd Chambers ($3700), Nic Demski ($3700), and Ryan Lankford ($3500). Here’s how this goes. Roosevelt is always in play even though $9,000 is a bit pricey, Chiles is unlikely to contribute much (if he plays), Bagg is a decent but not great punt option and Chambers and Lankford are GPP punts.
Update: Demski is starting ahead of Shamawd Chambers. You can consider Demski as a GPP punt but this eliminates Chambers from consider at all.
Calgary
Quarterback – Bo Levi Mitchell ($10,300) draws an enticing matchup this week against an injured Saskatchewan defense. The Riders have allowed 1723 passing yards and 14 TDs in 5 games. Mitchell, for his part, has been a steady option all season with just one of five games less than 25 DK points. You have to pay almost the same price as Reilly or Burris to get Mitchell though. I can’t give my Mitchell my recommendation as the top play but based on this matchup you could certainly make the case that he is.
Running Game – If you’ve watched many of the Calgary games this season, you’ve likely realized that Tory Harrison ($4000) has been stealing carries from Jerome Messam ($7000). Lucky for us, Harrison was placed on the practice roster this week so he will not be active. The Riders have allowed 457 rushing yards and 5 TDs. with Harris out of the picture I like Messam a little more than I would have but unlike the other expensive RBs he doesn’t see a lot of targets in the passing game.
Pass Catchers – Hopefully you followed my recommendation to avoid Marquay McDaniel ($8000) last week against BC. He finished with just 4 DK points. McDaniel is back in play this week though. If you take away the two games against BC (where McDaniel scored 4 points in each) his other games look very respectable (21, 19, 27.6). McDaniel will always be a guy you play when the matchup is right and avoid when it isn’t. This week the matchup is a good one. For most of this season, Joe West has been the second-best WR on Calgary but he is on injured reserve. That should open the door for Bakari Grant ($5900), Kamar Jorden ($5400), Lemar Durant ($4200) or Anthony Parker ($4800). If you watched last week’s game, you already know the answer to that seems to be Parker. He was already carving out a role in this offense before West went down. Parker is the guy you want on this offense after McDaniel. After McDaniel/Parker you could take a flyer on Lemar Durant (who just returned from an ankle injury) but you definitely need to avoid whichever of Grant/Jorden does not start. It looks like Grant will start so Jorden is the one to avoid here but you’ll want to verify that when depth charts come out if you play Grant for some reason.
Edmonton at Ottawa — SAT 7:00 PM ET
Edmonton
Quarterback – Here we are 2,000 words into the Grind Down and we finally get to the game of the week. If you’ve been playing CFL since Week 1, I don’t need to tell you about the last time Edmonton and Ottawa played. Last time these two teams met, we were treated to an overtime game that included 1032 total yards and ended 45-37. Mike Reilly ($11300) now has eight straight games with 300+ passing yards. Reilly was the top play last week and “disappointed” with just 21.2 DK points. He’ll face an Ottawa defense that has allowed 1974 passing yards in 5 games. Since there isn’t really a RB worth spending on this week, it should be easy enough to spend $11,300 on Reilly and lock in his 25-35 DK points.
Running Game – John White ($7600) checks in as this week’s most expensive RB. That is probably based on his Week 1 performance against this Redblacks defense that saw him score two TDs en route to 26.9 DK points. If you played White last week like me, you already know Calvin McCarty stole White’s goal line TD. I don’t necessarily expect that to continue but that doesn’t mean I expect a rushing TD for White this week. At $7600, you would need to depend on White getting some catches out of the backfield. That will definitely happen, but if you are selecting a RB based on that, you would be better off with Andrew Harris.
Pass Catchers – The last time Edmonton and Ottawa met both Derel Walker ($10900) and Adarius Bowman ($10800) went for over 100 yards receiving. It is tough to pick between Walker and Bowman on a weekly basis. They both average just over 10 targets per game and their season-long lines look very similar at 42/643/3 for Walker and 37/586/4 for Bowman. As much as I would like to say play both, that is nearly impossible this week. I give the slight edge to Bowman but it isn’t by much. As far as the rest of this WR corps, Nate Coehoorn ($3900) is back at practice so we don’t need to consider Natey Adjei. The others worth looking at are Cory Watson ($5100) and Chris Getzlaf ($4400). Both are just GPP long shots. As long as Coehoorn is back in the lineup, I would rather play him over both Watson and Getzlaf.
Ottawa
Quarterback – Henry Burris ($10000) returned from a finger injury last week and looked very rusty in a matchup against Toronto. Burris threw for just 218 yards and a TD while adding two interceptions. I’m willing to chalk that game up to rust and believe that Burris will return being the guy we saw win Most Outstanding Player last season. In less than one half, Burris carved this Edmonton defense up for 251 yards and a TD earlier this season. At $1300 less than Mike Reilly, and $300 less than Bo Levi Mitchell, I’ll give Henry Burris the nod as my top QB this week.
Running Game – No matter how hard teams try, they just can’t knock Nic Grigsby ($6300) out of the game. It feels like Grigsby has been injured in every single game he’s played only to sit out a few series and then return. That can likely be attributed to that fact that Grigsby was selling cars in Florida four weeks ago and probably isn’t in football shape. If you enjoy playing Grigsby, I regret to inform you that Travon Van should be back after Ottawa’s bye week next week so Saturday is your last chance to play Grigsby. With that said, I personally won’t be using Grigsby. Edmonton’s run defense has only allowed 345 rushing yards in five games and Grigsby doesn’t offer enough as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
Pass Catchers – We’ve finally arrived at the section of this article where I tell you that Ottawa has four really good WRs and they will drive you crazy for fantasy purposes. Chris Williams ($10,300) destroyed this Edmonton defense in Week 1 for 41.8 DK points but he’s had a down couple of weeks the last few. He should rebound this week though and if you can afford him you want Williams in your lineup. If you can’t afford Williams, you’ll need to choose between Brad Sinopoli ($7800), Greg Ellingson ($7200), and Ernest Jackson ($6600). One possible strategy here is to build multiple teams and mix and match. If multi-entry isn’t your thing though, I think it makes sense to take the savings Jackson offers at $6600. Jackson hasn’t had a huge game like the others but he has only scored less than 10DK points in one game. Ellingson and Sinopoli are also fine options but you have to take a stand somewhere. I’ll have some of both spread across my teams but I’m mostly focused on Williams and Jackson here.
Selecting A Defense
Before we get out of here this week, I need to mention something about selecting a defense. As you are probably aware, DK scoring awards the following to a defense based on points allowed 0 (10), 1-6 (+7), 7-13 (+4), 14-20 (+1), 21-27 (0), 28-34 (-1), 35 (-4). There have been very few games where one team has scored under 14 points. That means you’re either getting a 0, -1, or -4 from your defense in the points allowed category. Obviously, try to avoid picking a defense that allows 35 points and gets you -4. If you think most teams on the slate are scoring between 21-34 points, the difference between all of them in this category will be just one point. With that in mind, you shouldn’t be afraid to select one or two offensive players against your defense. For example, if you pick the Hamilton Tiger-Cats this week you can also play Andrew Harris or one of the cheap Winnipeg WRs. If Harris or your WR scores a TD, it isn’t going to kill your Hamilton defense pick. You had to know someone would score anyways. You should be able to make up for that with interceptions, fumbles, sacks, safeties and rouges.