CFL Grind Down: Week 8 (Thursday-Saturday)
Welcome to the RotoGrinders CFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the CFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective.
We’ll take a look at 2016 CFL statistics in order to highlight the strongest plays based on the numbers. We’ll also highlight key injuries and developing trends to help you identify the best plays for your CFL lineups. This article is meant to cover the basics. If you like someone for sound reasons don’t be afraid if they aren’t listed.
Based on feedback from previous articles, I’ll continue to share my CFL sheet each week. Click on this link which will open a Google spreadsheet. Then click on “File,” “Make A Copy,” and you can sort and filter your version of the sheet as well as make any notes. When looking at WRs, I recommend filtering on Targets, Targets Per Game, and Target % to help find value plays.
Montreal at Edmonton — THU 9:00 PM ET
Montreal Alouettes
Quarterback: Kevin Glenn ($7200) and the Alouettes will face off with the Edmonton Eskimos to start off this slate. The Eskimos were the CFL’s best defense last year but have allowed 2195 passing yards and 15 TDs through six games. These two teams have not faced each other yet this year but you have to think Montreal has the talent—at least at WR—to rack up some yards against Edmonton. Vegas has the over/under set at 51.5 and Edmonton seven point favorites. That equates to a score of roughly 22-29. Kevin Glenn is never someone you get too excited about but he is the second-cheapest starting QB. Most of the time you can expect 13-20 DK points. With Glenn, you’ll probably get what you pay for here but you don’t have to pay much to get it.
Running Game: Brandon Rutley ($6400) has filled in admirably for the injured Tyrell Sutton. In the right matchups, Rutley has provided a lot of value. Unfortunately, this week is not the right matchup. Edmonton ranks first in the CFL in points allowed to RBs. They’ve only allowed 407 rushing yards and two TDs in six games. It’s tough to pay $6400 for Rutley in this matchup. You would honestly be better off using Stefan Logan at $4100 just for his return yardage. That isn’t something I’m saying you should do, but it is something you can do.
Pass Catchers: The success of the Montreal passing game will rely on their ability to get Duron Carter ($9400) the ball. Carter is averaging 19.9PPG this season on 8.3 targets per game. The Alouettes have shown they will move Carter all over the formation in order to find the right matchup. I recommended avoiding Carter last week and he proved he is close to matchup proof. With that said, all season long there has been more value in chasing high-target mid-tier WRs. Carter is always a top 10 option but he isn’t someone you need to work extra hard to fit in your lineup. Outside of Carter, the other options that interest me are BJ Cunningham ($4600) and Nik Lewis ($5800). Lewis is the better target here as he sees close to 8 targets per game. Lewis would be a very strong play but his ceiling is capped. The routes he runs would almost make him a TE if those existed in the CFL. He’ll get you several short catches but he’s unlikely to have a huge day.
Edmonton Eskimos
Quarterback: Mike Reilly ($11,000) had his streak of consecutive 300-yard games come to an end last week. Reilly had his worst outing of the season with just 245 yards and an INT (11.9DK). As much as I want to predict a bounce-back week for Reilly, I can’t. If you’ve watched Edmonton play, you know the issue is that Reilly is taking a beating and the offensive line can’t seem to get things right. Ottawa sacked Reilly twice but also drew four roughing the passer penalties for hitting Reilly high or late. Besides the O-Line issues, Reilly faces a tough task against a Montreal defense that has allowed just 1702 passing yards and 9 TDs in six games. Reilly should have a respectable game, but an $11,000 price tag doesn’t make sense in this matchup.
Running Game: John White ($7300) draws one of the better matchups this week against Montreal. The Alouettes have allowed 616 rushing yards in six games to go along with only two TDs. Other than two 8-point busts, White has scored better than 15 points in every game. What you get with White is a decent option on the ground that has also seen 34 targets in 6 games (5.6 TPG). I don’t like the price, but I do like the matchup and the floor. White is in consideration for cash games this week though I like Jerome Messam slightly better.
Pass Catchers: The duo of Adarius Bowman ($10,600) and Derel Walker ($10,500) continues to create matchup nightmares for defensive coordinators. Bowman and Walker are each on pace for close to 2000 yards. Defenses have been able to scheme one or the other out of action but no one has shut both down in the same game. In my opinion, Montreal doesn’t have the personnel to shut either down this week. Considering their prices, you can’t fit both so I lean Bowman here as he is safer based on target volume. I’ll say the same thing about Bowman/Walker that I said about Carter. Picking the right high-target options in the $6K-$8K range has been the way to go this year. The cheaper options in this offense are Cory Watson ($4700), Chris Getzlaf ($4200), and Nate Coehoorn ($3600). I never get too excited about any of the three as they are all GPP-only options on a weekly basis.
Winnipeg at Toronto — FRI 7:30 PM ET
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Quarterback: After weeks of backing up the inept Drew Willy, Matt Nichols ($7300) will draw his third straight start. In the previous two, he’s scored 18.84 and 19.56. The price is right here even though the matchup isn’t great. Toronto has allowed 1820 passing yards and 7 TDs this season. Vegas has this as the lowest over/under at 50 with Winnipeg being a four-point underdog. The outlook for Nichols here is about the same as Kevin Glenn who is priced $100 cheaper. Both make sense but I would lean Glenn just slightly.
Running Game: Andrew Harris ($7400) might be the best RB in the CFL. This week, he is again priced in the top-tier. Harris’ worst game was 9.5DK but he consistently scores 16+. Last week, Hamilton focused on not letting Harris beat them and instead Matt Nichols beat them. The one interesting thing to note is that Harris has 0 and 2 catches in the two games Nichols has started. This is a huge concern, as much of Harris’ early season value was in the passing game. Toronto is middle of the pack with 486 rushing yards through six games but they have allowed five TDs. Overall though, I want to see Nichols look for Harris in the passing game more before I pay $7400 for Harris again.
Pass Catchers: This game is the battle of the injured WRs as both Winnipeg and Toronto are fielding a MASH unit at WR. Weston Dressler, Darvin Adams, and Ryan Smith are all on the six-game injury list. Quincy McDuffie is also questionable but he’s mostly just a kick returner. Those injuries open the door for a host of cheap guys in Clarence Denmark ($5200), Thomas Mayo ($5000), Jace Davis ($4800), and Kris Adams ($3000). The two I’m most interested in are Denmark—who played with Nichols last season—and Jace Davis who has seen a heavy dose of targets all season. I don’t have much interest in Mayo priced the same as Davis and Denmark but you could talk me into Kris Adams as a pure punt.
Toronto Argonauts
Quarterback: With Ricky Ray on the six-game injury list, Logan Kilgore ($6800) will make his second start. From a DFS perspective, Kilgore looked decent against Ottawa with 17.9 points but he needed 42 attempts to do it. He does have an amazing matchup though against the Bombers who have allowed 2464 passing yards in seven games. If Kilgore were a bit more polished, I would love this spot for him. We shouldn’t need a lot though for $6800. I like Kilgore about the same as the other guys in the $7K range.
Running Back: Brandon Whitaker ($6700) injured his ankle before the bye but he appears to be good to go this week. The matchup against Winnipeg is excellent as they have given up 566 rushing yards and 5 TDs. A couple of things give me concern here though. In several games Whitaker has lost snaps to Coombs and Drurie. There is also a chance that Henry Josey comes off the six-game injury list. I’m hesitant to use a guy coming off injury who was already losing snaps. Some of what I just said might be getting too cute. I would rather have Messam, but if I can’t get there, Whitaker is close enough that I wouldn’t re-work my lineup to make Messam fit.
Pass Catchers: Posting the CFL Grind Down early in the week often means we have little clarity on injury situations. If you are reading this early, make sure to check back once depth charts are out. Vidal Hazelton ($6600) injured his ankle two weeks ago. He believes he’ll be back this week. Kenny Shaw shifted out wide to take Hazelton’s spot in the only game they played since. Diontae Spencer ($7400) has been on the six-game injury list but could possibly come off this week. If Hazelton and Spencer both play, Shaw would head back to the bench. Tori Gurley ($6700) has a back injury and has been out for three weeks. He isn’t on the six-game injury list so he could come back at any time. From this far out, I like Spencer as a low-owned GPP play if he starts. If Hazelton is back—and 100%—his price puts him in play for cash games. As for Shaw, I’m worried that he ends up matched up with the Eskimos’ Bruce Johnson which would make him an avoid.
Calgary at Saskatchewan — SAT 7:00 PM ET
Calgary Stampeders
Quarterback: Bo Levi Mitchell ($10,600) and the Stampeders face the Roughriders in the highest over/under of the week at 55. Vegas expects Calgary to win this handily as they are a six-point favorite. The Riders have allowed 1915 passing yards and 15 TDs which bodes well for Mitchell’s outlook. If some of this sounds familiar for Mitchell, it’s because he just played Saskatchewan last week. He scored 19.68 in that game. I liked him then and I like him again even though he is a bit pricey. If the game wouldn’t have turned into a blowout so early Mitchell would have done much better than 19.68. I think it will be much closer this week.
Running Game: Last week Jerome Messam ($7500) scored 28.5 DK points on 17/109/1 rushing and 5/36/0 receiving. Guess what, he plays the exact same team again. I’ll caution that Messam’s TD and 100-yard bonus came in garbage time but you can’t deny he was dominant. As long as Tory Harrison stays out of the picture, Messam is the top RB this week.
Pass Catchers: Let’s do the same thing at WR. Who did we like last week and how did they do? Marquay McDaniel ($8400) went for 8/110/0 for 22 DK. I like him again, and pretty much anytime he has a decent matchup. Bakari Grant ($6400) was not recommended, he went for 3/71/0 for 10.1 DK. That’s better than I expect him to do this week. I would rather have Hazelton (if healthy) at that price. Kamar Jorden ($5300) went for 3/28/0 for 6.4, which is about what you could expect again this week. Anthony Parker ($5100) is a decent mid-range value but he had several drops last week. He went or 2/25/1 for 10.5 last week and scored 14.9 the week before. The last possibly playable guy here is Lemar Durant who went for 3/29/0 but does appears to be working his way back into the offense. In summary, I like McDaniel and Parker here with the rest possibly playable in a GPP.
Saskatchewan Roughriders
Quarterback: As mentioned above, we just watched these same teams face off last week. The only thing that has changed is the home team. Darian Durant ($8800) was returning from injury last week and looked rusty. Honestly, the entire Roughriders offense looked rusty. The Riders were blown out 35-15 with Durant scoring just 14.38 DK points. I’m not recommending Durant in cash games, but I’m not ready to give up on him just yet. Calgary is giving up over 300 yards per game and Vegas thinks there will be some scoring in this game. He’s a fringe cash game option and soundly in the top tier. Just know that there is some risk.
Running Game: Last week Kendial Lawrence ($4200) started at RB for the Riders. He’s listed at WR but he makes a decent play mostly because he also returns kicks. He would be close to a must-play in cash if he were listed at RB, but he isn’t so he’s just a decent play. The other name here is Matt Walter ($3200). He’ll see a few carries but I don’t have much interest.
Pass Catchers: I already mentioned you can use Lawrence at WR which makes sense if you want to pay up for a top-tier RB. Naaman Roosevelt ($8600) only caught two passes for 18 yards. It was an uncharacteristic bust for Roosevelt but I would use caution as he’ll face the same matchup again. Out of nowhere, Rob Bagg ($4700) went for 4/135/1 for 25.5 points. I don’t expect another huge performance, but Bagg’s ability to stretch the field with Roosevelt blanketed lead to the Riders only scores. The other playable options are Ricky Collins ($4400) and Nic Demski ($3700). Both are just GPP flyers especially being priced so close to Bagg.
Hamilton at BC Lions — SAT 10:00 PM ET
Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Quarterback: The moment Hamilton fans have been waiting for has finally arrived. Zach Collaros ($9700) returned to taking first-team reps and will start this week instead of Jeremiah Masoli. To say that Collaros is a better QB than Masoli is a huge understatement. The only thing that gives me pause here is that BC has a legitimately good defense. The Lions have only given up 1723 passing yards and 8 TDs. That doesn’t seem to bother Vegas though as they have this at a 54.5 over/under with BC a three-point favorite. Collaros should be under-owned because of his price and that fact that some casuals will not be aware he is starting. In my opinion Collaros is about $1000 cheaper than he should be. He’s on the same level as Reilly ad Mitchell, even in this matchup.
Running Game: Even in a good matchup, I always exercise caution with CJ Gable ($5000). It isn’t a question of his talent, it’s just that we can never count on Gable getting enough carries or receptions. In this same matchup in Week 2 Gable scored on 7.95 DK points. The BC Lions have also given up just 417 rushing yards this entire season. Let’s move on.
Pass Catchers: Several times this season I’ve mentioned that I wouldn’t be using Luke Tasker ($8300) until Collaros returns. The reason for that is that Chad Owens ($7200) was Masoli’s favorite target while Tasker was Collaros’ favorite in the past. With Tasker down to a very-playable $8300, now is the ultimate buy-low opportunity. The other thing I do in this space every week is warn people to avoid whoever gets matched up with BC’s Ronnie Yell. My guess as of right now is that last week’s hero Terrance Tolliver ($6500) gets locked downed by Yell. Andy Fantuz ($7300) is the other guy worth mentioning here but at $7300 I’ll spend just a bit more for Tasker or drop down to Owens for $100 cheaper.
BC Lions
Quarterback: Oh man, Jonathan Jennings ($9200) has been incredibly hot lately. His price keeps rising and he is going to come back to earth with a thud. The stars align perfectly for this to be the week it happens. In this same matchup Week 2, Jennings went for 13.32 DK points. The Tiger-Cats have also allowed just 1640 passing yards and have racked up 22 sacks in six games. If you want to spend $9200 or so, Durant is a better option. I would even prefer the guys in the $7K range over Jennings.
Running Game: With Jeremiah Johnson ($6400) returning to the starting lineup last week, we saw Anthony Allen become inactive. That is likely to be the case again. In order to maintain the ratio of Canadians to Americans, the Lions need to inactivate one of Johnson/Allen. Whichever isn’t listed as the starter can be expected to be inactive. To me, it doesn’t matter which starts though. Hamilton has only allowed 384 rushing yards all season. If you are looking for a RB priced in this range, pay up to the top-tier. If you absolutely can’t do that, take Whitaker over either of these two.
Pass Catchers: I already mentioned in the Jennings section above that I don’t love the outlook for BC’s passing attack this week. The big problem with Emmanuel Arceneaux ($7800), Shawn Gore ($6200) and Bryan Burnham ($6100) is that they are all priced the same as someone else who is a better option in a better matchup. Burnham was not a starter when these teams faced off Week 2 but Arceneaux scored 16.6 while Gore scored 18.6. Those numbers are actually surprising and I don’t expect them to be replicated.
That should do it for this Week’s CFL Grind Down. Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or come join me in the Week 8 CFL Strategy Thread.