Champions League Final DFS Preview: Real Madrid vs. Liverpool
The final match of the season before the beginning of the World Cup is the Champions League Final. What could be labeled the biggest game of the season, it features two of the biggest teams in Europe. Real Madrid face off with Liverpool in a matchup that pits the two-time defending champions looking for a three-peat and a Liverpool team that features some of the most exciting attacking we’ve seen all season in any of the top five leagues. But we don’t have to just watch the game passively, DraftKings is making things interesting for this slate with a Showdown contest for this game.
If you haven’t played the showdown’s before, they’re pretty simple. You’re picking six players from one game regardless of position, but there is still a salary cap and the scoring is a little bit different. The biggest and most noticeable differences are that goals and assists count more for defenders, and there is also added points for accurate passes and assisted shots (chance created). There are also points added to the shootout goal, miss and save making the stakes high even for the event of a penalty shootout.
The game should be a good challenge for Jurgen Klopp’s men who go into this match with the hopes of coming out with silverware to cap off what could only be considered a successful season in which they finished in the top 4 in the EPL, and were able to add to their already prolific scoring team the EPL’s top goal scorer in Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian has transformed his career with the season he had for Liverpool. Klopp’s men won’t be intimidated by the limelight of the moment, or by the big names in Real Madrid. Madrid may be the two-time defending champions, but on their way to this match, Liverpool disposed of the likes of Sevilla, Porto, Manchester City, and Roma. In their matchups with these four teams, they scored 22 goals and conceded 12. This team showed two sides throughout the tournament. They had a back and forth affair with Roma where they won their first leg 5-2, then lost the return leg 2-4. On the other hand, they played a tough defensive effort in the second leg against Manchester City where they gave up almost 70% possession and were outshot 20-5 but still came out 2-1 winners. Which Liverpool team shows up in this matchup will depend entirely on how Real Madrid decide to play them.
From their end, Real Madrid enter this matchup with extreme confidence, they boast the best player in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo, and the team features some solid midfield play from Toni Kroos as well as superior wing support in the likes of Marcelo. Zidane could choose to pressure Liverpool’s defense and put them to the test, after all, their defense has been suspect all season with middling performances from their keeper and their central defense. In their match against PSG on the road, they outshot the home team 22-8 and attacked PSG on the left side using Marcelo. Zidane could choose to attack Liverpool the way he handled Tottenham in the group stages. Though Spurs are a better defensive team, they did manage to get a draw in Madrid and a win in England. In England, Madrid pressured Tottenham early as they held 63% possession and doubled Tottenham in shots, but still managed to lose the match 3-1. They repeated a similar performance against Juventus at home where they held 60%+ of the possession but still lost 3-1 to the Italian champs.
This leads me to believe that Real Madrid will likely try to control the ball more in the midfield where they can establish more control over the pitch. They will try to force Liverpool into beating them with midfield buildup. Liverpool’s successes this season have come from short passes that utilize their front 3’s skills and propensity to move fast with and without the ball. Real Madrid will try to take that away by drawing Firmino back to the midfield and away from his comfort zone. Madrid will then rely on the skills of Marcelo on the left side to take advantage of Liverpool’s trend to allow 20% of their opponent’s shots from the left side opposed to just 13% from the right. Coincidentally, those numbers are almost mirrored on the other side by Real Madrid.
Another aspect to consider when evaluating this match is the advanced stats like xG. Both teams have a high xG per shot when they play fast, so both teams will want to pick up the pace. All signs do point to a midfield struggle with the team that controls the midfield able to effectively dictate the flow of the match. The biggest matchup by far is the Marcelo vs Salah, although, Marcelo may not end up keeping tabs on the Egyptian for much of the match, that honor will fall to Sergio Ramos who may end up trying to stick with Salah in case Marcelo is venturing too far up the field.
Overall, I think this match will feature some strong offensive displays. Each team will take between 10-20 shots with at least 3-5 of those on target. At the end of the day, neither team will keep a clean sheet so you’ll be hard-pressed to pick one of the keepers, leaving the majority of your options focused on the forwards and midfielders.
By far the toughest choices you’ll make will center on whether to pay $15.9K for Ronaldo or $13K for Salah. It’s hard for me to see Ronaldo shut out of this match, as he has the superior goal scoring potential than Salah. Salah does edge him out in the ability to create for his teammates and in his overall workload on the season.
But the real difference maker for Liverpool is Firmino, who stands out for me. When he plays well, the whole team plays well. If Firmino can overcome the defensive pressure that is sure to be put on him then he can make life easier for Mane and Salah that could result in goal scoring for the English side. Selecting players for this showdown will be tough and there will be a slight element of luck, but if you go in with expectations established as to who you believe has the best chance at prevailing, then you should find more success than failure on Saturday.
Overall, picking your teams will really depend on who you expect to score the goals. Here’s how I see them
Upper Tier (Salary $9,000 and above)
1. Cristiano Ronaldo $15.9K
2. Roberto Firmino $10.5K
3. Isco $9.2K
4. Mohamed Salah $13K
5. Marcelo $10.1K
6. Sadio Mane $9.6K
Middle Tier (Salary between $6,000 and $9,000)
1. Karim Benzema $8.1K
2. Trent Alexander-Arnold $6.3K
3. James Milner $8.4K
4. Keylor Navas $6.6K
5. Toni Kroos $8.6K
6. Daniel Carvajal $8.3K
Value Tier (Salary below $6,000)
1. Andrew Robertson
2. Loris Karius
3. Raphael Varane
4. Sergio Ramos
Captain (1.5x on FanDuel)
1. Cristiano Ronaldo
2. Mohamed Salah
3. Marcelo
4. Roberto Firmino
5. Sadio Mane