Champions League Preview: Tuesday
Just remember: there are only seven games Tuesday (and Wednesday) because of each day’s one early start in the heart of Mother Russia. So no chance to roster Bayern Munich’s big boys, especially in a plum matchup against CSKA Moscow.
Games and lineups freeze on DraftKings at 2:45 PM EST; lineups will start becoming official around 1:30. They can be found at uefa.com, Twitter, and so forth…my tip? Keep your options liquid until lineups are announced, and look for value if some backups are given the chance to start, especially for the big boys like Barcelona, Real Madrid and the like.
Paris St. Germain vs. Barcelona
No Zlatan Ibrahimovic, people. Sorry to disappoint. The Swede is out with a heel/Achilles injury, and fellow PSG frontman Ezequiel Lavezzi (hamstring) is likely out as well. Add into the mix that Thiago Silva is a big question mark for the hosts’ backline, and Barcelona is a big ole’ favorite in this one.
You could go with PSG’s cadre of threatening forwards; Edison Cavani ($8,300) hasn’t had the best of season starts in Ligue 1, but with Zlatan out he will get his chance as a lone forward up top. Or Laurent Blanc could go with Jean-Christophe Baheback, who at a minimum $3,000 could be an excellent value play if he takes his chances against the Catalan giants. It’s a long shot, but keep an eye on the starting lineup for PSG. As for midfield options, there is talent like Marco Verrati ($7,800), Yohan Cabaye ($6,900) and Blaise Matuldi ($6,000) —but they’re likely to be pinned back by their opposition. If you go with anyone, look towards whomever starts behind the starting striker(S): likely either Javier Pastore ($7,000) or Lucas Moura ($5,900). I’m staying far, far away from the PSG backline or keeper.
Barca, you ask? It’s easy for target a stack, but you are likely to have a better choice in goal than Claudio Bravo ($4,900) —there are better options for clean sheet plus win bonuses in other games, and he is unlikely to see a lot of action. If, for some reason, Luis Enrique goes with backup Marc-Andre Ter Stegen ($3,000) that has a lot more shine in a lineup.
Outside backs for Barcelona are not cheap; Dani Alves ($4,900) and Jordi Alba ($4,800) will garner you points, there’s little doubt about that, but you will have to find value in other places in order to fit both of them in. As for the rest of the Barcelona starting 11, you likely know the names—get ready to spend for them. My thought is I’ll likely avoid the midfield three—probably Andres Iniesta ($7,000), Ivan Rakitic ($6,000) and Sergio Busquets ($5,400)—for more upside in other places.
Of course, you have Lionel Messi ($11,200) and Neymar ($10,100) up top. If you choose either, you need to be very sure that they will outperform other options at around the same price, which we will come to later. Lesser priced options like Pedro ($6,400) or Munir El Haddadi ($6,600) could be attractive options for value and Barca stacks.
Apoel FC vs. Ajax Amsterdam
The hosts gave Barcelona a really good struggle in the first group stage match earlier this month, while Ajax drew PSG 1-1 at home—to be honest, if either team has any desire to advance from this Group, three points are perhaps a necessity, even though four games remain—especially Ajax, who have two matches versus Barca remaining.
Ajax have forward Lasse Schone ($5,800) in doubt to start this one; if he does, Schone is an excellent mid-range option as a second forward or Flex option as a contrarian play. APOEL’s Cillian Sheridan ($4,200) is another excellent, lower priced, under the radar choice. Other low-end options Ajax could bring to your table are Lucas Andersen or Anwar El Ghazi at minimum or Kolbeinn Sigthorsson ($5,300). There is value to use for the Dutch giants. I can’t see starting APOEL aside from Sheridan and goalkeeper Urko Pardo ($3,500)-I just don’t have enough information to base lineup choices and money on such an unknown entity.
Sporting Lisbon vs. Chelsea
This one is very interesting, from a DFS standpoint and in general. Jose Mourinho is risking Diego Costa ($10,500) from the start of this one. As with this weekend, value and performance could meet in Chelsea’s midfield, depending on who starts. Willian ($4,900) and Oscar ($6,500) scream play me in all formats if they start—Lisbon is better than Aston Villa, don’t get me wrong. But again those two will try and impress Mourinho in order to remain in Chelsea’s starting lineup. Andre Schurrle ($7,000) is another, but he is right on the cusp of emerging from ValueLand into a higher price bracket.
The tricky decision is to whether include Cesc Fabregas ($9,200) or Eden Hazard ($9,600) —the latter especially, due to the Belgian’s poor play as of late. A Chelsea stack is a valid play, but there are better options in my opinion out there. On the other hand, you have Branislav Ivanovic ($4,000) and Thibaut Courtois ($4,800) as trusted options for the Blues.
Possible plays don’t just end on the blue side of this matchup. Sporting drew at Maribor in their first group match and can’t afford to drop more points with two matches against Schalke, who are their likely rivals to advance with Chelsea out of the group. You have Nani at ($7,000) on DraftKings, who from all reports has his confidence back. Islam Slimani ($6,100), who had an excellent World Cup for Algeria in the summer, is another option. Add into the mix possible minimum play Andre Carillo, who might make a quality cost-saving Flex option if he starts. It’s the same with Joao Mario in midfield—another plea to you to keep an eye on the starting lineups.
Schalke vs. Maribor
Schalke needs three points from this one. A roster stacking a spine of Schalke options— Ralf Fahrmann ($4,300), Kaan Ayhan ($3,400), Christian Fuchs ($2,600) (substitute any corresponding outside backs for these two), Julian Draxler ($4,900) and Klaus-Jan Huntelaar ($7,500) is worth your GPP play. Those five choices leave you $27,300 for three other choices: one midfielder, one forward, one Flex. Hmmm…
As with APOEL, I can’t suggest any Maribor players in good conscience, especially in cash games. Maybe keeper Jasmin Handanovic ($3,000) as a pure GPP punt in order to capitalize on the amount of action he’ll see.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Porto
Keep in mind this really isn’t a home game for Shakhtar; with the unrest in Ukraine, the game is being played in Lviv. This match could be a bit of a track meet; both clubs have a lot of Brazilian influence in them and have attacking options. Both Fabiano ($4,200) and Andriy Pyatov ($3,000) should see a lot of action; the latter is the better of the two options, but I can’t suggest either as a top option.
The outside backs for both sides are not cheap in this one, but should be a pretty solid set of plays overall. Danilo ($4,500) and Darijo Srna ($3,600) are known commodities, but projected starters Marcio Azevedo ($3,300) and Alex Sandro ($2,800) are more affordable options. In midfield, Porto has two excellent mid-range options in Yacine Brahimi ($7,400) and Hector Herrera ($6,700) —both are very involved going forward. The small sample size so far this season for Porto is skewed by their 6-0 beatdown of BATE Borisov earlier in the month, but even on the road they should score. Brahimi is listed as a midfielder, but mostly is used in a front three by Porto. If using a Porto stack, Oliver Torres ($3,000) if starting is a must-use. Jackson Martinez ($8,400) is Porto’s main man up top; the Colombian is a solid option, but others should be used outside of a stack. Also Adrian and/or Cristian Tello at the minimum are good value picks if started.
Donetsk’s options are also well priced for use if you see fit. Brazilians Luiz Adriano ($5,400), Taison ($5,700), Alex Teixera ($4,600) and Douglas Costa ($4,200) are all in play if in the starting 11. All make excellent second striker or midfielder/flex choices—I can’t see Porto keeping a clean sheet in this one.
BATE Borisov vs. Athletic Bilbao
Based on the hosts getting waxed by Porto last time around, you might think Bilbao is an excellent choice for a contrarian stack. But the Basques drew at home against Shakhtar and have had a really poor start in La Liga. Add into the mix Ernesto Valverde’s comments prior to this game stating he would make some changes to Bilbao’s starting lineup, and trying to read the tea leaves is difficult at best.
The options, if you choose to go Bilbao, are well priced. There’s just better options if you want to go less expensive, and surer bets if you pay up. Iraizoz ($3,500) could get a clean sheet in net, but aforementioned options trump his use. If you want to punt using this game, go with Sergey Chernik at a minimum salary hoping for a BATE win and a low score. A clean sheet would be icing on the cake. Defender Filip Mladenovic ($5,100) is overpriced on this market, with guys like Anri Khagush ($3,100) and Balenziaga ($2,800) better options at their respective price points.
In midfield, there isn’t an option on either side that costs more than $4,200—either you see value, or a lack of any real option to choose from. Susaeta at minimum cost carries the most weight for Bilbao, while no BATE options should be used in my opinion. At forward, every option is in that mid-range where if you stack from the big boys, you really can’t use any of them as a striker or a Flex in most cases. Aduriz ($5,000), Iker Muniain ($6,000), Vitali Rodionov ($6,400) and Mikhail Gordeychuk ($6,700) are all solid players—one or two might score—but you can’t choose any of them with real confidence while using big names from other teams in your lineup.
Manchester City vs. Roma
Yes, I saved the best for last. Clichés and all.
Roma just cleaned the floor with CSKA Moscow 5-1, taking the lead in their group with City and Bayern included—so anything they can take from the Etihad and the blue side of Manchester is icing on the cake. Roma is without influential midfielder Daniele De Rossi and starting central defender Davide Astori, so City is the favorite going into this one.
Add to that Roma’s starting keeper Morgan De Sanctis is questionable with a muscle injury, and I can’t suggest using any Roma player at keeper or defense. Joe Hart ($5,000) should start for City, He’s the most expensive keeper on the slate; I’m just going in other directions, but see no fault in using him. If you want to use defenders from this match, go with City’s—the chance of a clean sheet bonus are much higher for the hosts. Gael Clichy ($2,900) or Aleksandar Kolarov ($4,300) at left back, Pablo Zabaleta ($3,700) at right, pretty damn solid going forward and possible clean sheet bonuses at a ceiling.
Midfield options you’ll have to pay medium to high for; I can’t see sinking cap space into David Silva ($8,100) or Yaya Toure ($7,300), but tonight might be the night one or both start their respective seasons. Against a different team at the same price point, I’d be all over Miralem Pjanic ($5,200) as the center of Roma’s attack going forward, but he’ll see a lot of attention from City’s Fernandinho—things will have to go his way to achieve value.
Want two minimum cost options that could pay off rather nicely? Radja Nainggolan has been pretty damn good so far this season in Serie A. He scores goals, and could get double digits even if he’s not on the scoresheet. Same with Alessandro Florenzi, and while he starts up top for Roma he’s classified as a striker on DraftKings.
And there’s no lack of options at forward for both teams. City’s pair of Sergio Aguero ($9,400) and Edin Dzeko ($9,400) are near the top of anybody’s list to use on Tuesday, especially against Roma’s makeshift backline. For Roma, Gervinho ($8,900) has played extremely well so far this season, but I can’t see using him outside of a stack. The same stands with Francesco Totti ($6,700). Both could score, or both could fall in that four to eight point range and kill your lineup. Juan Iturbe ($6,300), if he starts, is an intriguing option but he may be out with a thigh injury. Mattia Destro at minimum is intriguing if he starts in place of Fiorenzi.