Champions League Preview: Tuesday
This is a fun Tuesday; there’s a lot of chalk, there’s a lot of value, there’s a lot of ways to go in putting together your Champions League lineup.
With another early start in Russia, CSKA Moscow and Manchester City are off the table—but seven matches are here to choose from, with some really interesting and even matchups in the mix with only one David/Goliath game to cherry pick.
Roma vs. Bayern Munich
This, on paper, is the best matchup of the night. Roma, even after selling defender Mehdi Benatia (to Bayern!) in the summer, are a single point behind Juventus in Serie A and lay second behind Munich in their Champions League group. Bayern are just dominant so far this season, and are coming off a 6-0 win on the weekend where they didn’t even use stud forward Robert Lewandowski ($10,400) in the spanking. He and Thomas Muller ($11,000) will cost you, and the matchup against Roma away is not the best of the lot. Both are strong options, but perhaps not the best for cash lineups. They will need to unlock Roma’s defense, which hasn’t been done a lot in this campaign.
There’s more value if you go with Roman attackers; Juan Iturbe ($6,000) at forward has upside, and in midfield (if he starts) Alessandro Fiorenzi ($3,000) is an excellent minimum punt play if you want to spend in other places. Both Gervinho ($8,400) and Francesco Totti ($7,200) are both mid-level choices I’d have more interest in if they were not playing Bayern. Both Arjen Robben ($9,700) and Mario Gotze ($8,700) should have high ownership numbers—the ceiling is high, but you’ll have to save elsewhere.
Bayern’s defenders are a pretty solid bet, but are not cheap. You have defensive midfielder Philipp Lahm ($5,200) as a defender at DK, while outside backs David Alaba ($4,600) and Jerome Boateng ($4,000) have high upsides going forward. With Manuel Neuer ($4,700) in net, Bayern are a pretty strong favorite even on the road. A defensive back three consisting of Bayern players might be your best bet from this one; otherwise, trying to stack guys from this one is tough, even two Bayern players without hurting your team in other places.
Barcelona vs. Ajax
Don’t be surprised if there is a bit of squad rotation on Barcelona’s part Tuesday against Ajax; El Clasico awaits against Real Madrid in La Liga Saturday. But with Barcelona’s loss at PSG last matchday, any widespread changing of Luis Enrique’s starting 11 should be at a minimum. There are two schools of thought on paying up for Lionel Messi ($13,200) and/or Neymar ($11,700) in this one. Huge favorites at home against an Ajax side that is young and could be overmatched, but if Barca go up a couple either striker might get pulled early. But to be honest, the matchup is too good to overlook them. Both are near the top of the rankings at forward on Tuesday. Whoever between Pedro ($6,400) or Munir El-Haddadi ($6,400) is your value from the Catalans.
For the rest of your Barcelona options: the prices are similar to Bayern’s and they have a much better matchup in their collective favor. Enrique has used Marc-Andre Ter Stegen so far in European play, but I will not be surprised if Claudio Bravo ($5,000) starts in his place. You have Dani Alves ($5,000) and Jordi Alba ($4,900) bombing forward. But there is some risk; Barcelona can be caught on the counterattack, and they are not as good defensively as a whole as Bayern. But it’s a better play on Tuesday.
You weren’t going to use Sergio Busquets anyway, and he might miss out due to injury. Keep an eye who starts for Barcelona in midfield. If someone gets a spot start, there could be a lot of value.
Ajax options from this one: on paper, there is a lot of value because of the Dutch side’s overall price tag. You can go in a GPP with Lasse Schone ($5,900) or Kolbeinn Sigthorsson ($5,600) as your flex. You’re a braver person than I. And fortune does favor the bold, as the saying goes. I won’t be surprised if Ajax scores at the Nou Camp, but a win or draw is a mighty tall order to fill.
Schalke vs. Sporting Lisbon
This is an interesting matchup, where a lot of attacking individuals have some value. A stack might be out of order, but one or two players, the right ones, could have a lot of positive upside to it. I can’t see taking outside of a GPP taking either side’s keeper or defenders in a stack expecting a win plus clean sheet, but Schalke is a pretty strong favorite in this one. Ralf Fahrmann ($4,000) paired with expected starters Dennis Aogo ($3,500) and Atsuto Uchida ($2,000) saves you a lot more for other positions than going with a collection from Bayern or Barcelona.
Justin Draxler’s ($6,200) price tag has gone up since last month; the Schalke midfielder is still an excellent choice, a plug and play option near the top of anyone’s list on Tuesday. Kevin Prince-Boateng ($7,000) doesn’t have the ceiling or the high floor Draxler does. Up at forward, Sporting comes into play Nani ($7,000), Islam Slimani ($6,100) and value minimum price play Andre Carillo ($3,000). A lot of people were burned by Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting ($6,900), but he’s still a vital part of Schalke going forward and takes penalties. But the chalk play in this one, affordable and the central piece of Schalke’s attack, is Klaas-Jan Huntelaar ($7,800). He can be used in any type of lineup, partnering a big name like one of the Bayern/Barca forwards or in a mid-level forward stack that sees you spend evenly over your entire lineup.
APOEL vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Because of the matchup, PSG will be a very popular stack both in defense and attack. Let’s just start with this; I cannot see using any APOEL player in this one. Yes, they’re cheap. Cillian Sheridan ($4,200) is your lead striker; best of luck using him.
PSG has some injuries, but that allows some value plays to be used to spend elsewhere. Salvatore Sirigu ($4,600) is not cheap, but he has a much better chance than Bravo or Neuer in coming home with a clean sheet. Gregory van der Wiel ($4,400) and Maxwell ($4,300) should see a lot of chances going forward for the visitors.
Midfield gives you a lot of mid-level price options; beyond Marco Verratti, Yohan Cabaye and Blaise Matuidi, all excellent players, you have possible starters Lucas Moura ($6,000) and Javier Pastore ($7,200) who are listed as midfielders on DK but will be used by Laurent Blanc as attackers on each side of lead forward Edinson Cavani ($8,300). There is a lot of value in that threesome; I could see starting at least two if included from the start.
BATE Borisov vs. Shakhtar Donetsk
This matchup should see the lowest ownership numbers collectively of all seven games. However, prices in this one are relatively inexpensive and useful. Shakhtar is the favorite despite being on the road, and a sneaky stack can come from either Andriy Pyatov ($3,500) or Anton Kanibolotskiy ($3,500) in net and right back Darijo Srna ($3,600). BATE’s Sergey Chernik ($3,500) is a contrarian option who might see a lot of action and could rack up a few points from saves.
There are a lot of underpriced options for Shakhtar in midfield. From lowest to highest, whoever starts from Bernard ($3,000), Douglas Costa ($4,300), Alex Teixeira ($4,600) and Taison ($5,600) have a lot of possible jackpot potential as a second, cheaper option in midfield, especially if paired with a more expensive #1 from Bayern or Chelsea. BATE’s Alek Karnitski ($5,400) and Aleksandr Volodko ($3,200) are low cost midfield/flex choices for contrarian play only. Luis Adriano ($5,800) is Shakhtar’s lone forward; that salary is flexible enough to use in either a stars and scrubs lineup or a more evenly spent team.
Chelsea v. Maribor
Alright; first, you have no reason to start anyone from Maribor. Just don’t. Chelsea is an attractive stack, but keep this in mind: with Manchester United this weekend, it is human nature to overlook this one. Chelsea are huge favorites, and it’s hard not to see a) Maribor playing incredibly defensive and b) Chelsea taking their figurative collective feet off the pedal. Chelsea have several injuries, and Jose Mourinho said Monday he will not rest players.
Diego Costa is out; Loic Remy ($6,400) burned a lot of us over the weekend in EPL action, but he’s still a lot of value wrapped in a candy coating of a lone striker role. You have a lot of midfield chalk with Cesc Fabregas ($9,500), Eden Hazard ($9,900) and Oscar ($7,000). More value is in the form of Willian ($5,400). In the back, it’s the usual and likely very successful suspects in blue. Branislav Ivanovic ($4,500), Filipe Luis ($3,800) and Thibaut Courtois ($5,200) are not cheap, but they have the best odds to bring home a win/clean sheet bonus.
Porto vs. Athletic Bilbao
Lastly, you have a pretty even matchup between Porto and Bilbao. I’m much more interested in the hosts, especially in attack. Using a combination of Yacine Brahimi ($7,600) in midfield, Jackson Martinez ($8,200) and Cristiano Tello ($5,200) in attack is a valid core for any lineup, be it cash or GPP. Bilbao has valid options of its own; Iker Munain ($5,800) and Aritz Aduriz ($6,000) can find the net, especially the latter. In Porto’s midfield, Hector Herrera ($6,200) is pretty solid but doesn’t have the upside like others you can choose from.
Guys on the backline or in net? There is little chance for a clean sheet in this one. You can find better options in other games with better chances to bring home a win and/or clean sheet.