Champions League Preview: Tuesday
Tuesday’s DK slate for the Champions League includes seven matches, excluding the early Zenit St. Petersburg/Bayer Leverkusen match. This schedule has a real unknown quantity to it; things could go so many ways, beginning with starting lineups to whom feasts on their opposition and who plays down to inferior competition.
Of course you can use as part of your research the last round of games, which were the same teams against each other but the host side has changed. There are several strong home favorites on Tuesday, so a strong theme from this slate is to choose wisely from those teams. Several matchups could get out of hand on the scoreboard.
Benfica vs. Monaco
These teams drew in Monaco in a rather uneventful scoreless match; this should be a bit different if only to the watch Benfica really needs to win this match outright. They have one point from three matches, and their last home game against Bayer Leverkusen could be useless by that time. There are several injury doubts for the home team, including central defender Jardel and winger Nicolas Gaitan ($5,100). I can’t see much upside in choosing anyone from Benfica’s half of this. Midfielder Eduardo Salvio ($6,000) has been Benfica’s most steady performer DFS wise, but the winger at that cost has little attractiveness aside from a contrarian GPP option.
A potential Monaco stack at keeper and defender is a viable and cost effective option. Danijel Subasic ($3,600) is very underpriced by DK in their algorithm, while outside backs Fabinho ($3,300) and Layvin Kurzawa ($3,400) would give you a potential back three just over $10k. However, a clean sheet would be almost necessary for both to hit double figures in points. Benfica’s lack of offense in Europe is a positive; the negative side of the ledger is that Monaco would have to do it as a road underdog. Monaco’s midfield is kind of a miss DFS wise, but there might be some value up top. If Dimitar Berbatov does miss out (as he was supposed to last matchday), there could be minimum plays with Lucas Ocampos, Nabil Dirar or Anthony Martial while Valere Germain ($4,100) is another possible option.
Arsenal vs. Anderlecht
For Arsenal, it should be the same 11 that finally broken down Burnley over the weekend that starts against the Belgian side that almost beat the Gunners last time around. But this one is at the Emirates, and a win should neatly clinch a spot in the knockout stages for Arsenal. There are no surprises in who I’ll suggest to suit up from Arsenal in this one. Wojciech Szczesny ($4,300) is on the low end of the top tier for keepers on the day, and Arsenal are a huge favorite in this one. Short of a total collapse, Szczesny’s floor would include a win and a one-goal allowed bonus. Outside backs Kieran Gibbs ($4,400) and Calum Chambers ($4,100) would benefit greatly from a clean sheet bonus, but their salaries will limit you loading up in other positions. You’ll have to hit the value players at midfield and forward to have everything come together. I can’t fault an Arsenal stack, though.
Santi Cazorla ($6,300) isn’t a terrible option, but there are better options with a higher ceiling in that neighborhood price wise. At forward, Alexis Sanchez ($9,900) is just utterly thriving in a central role and if it wasn’t for the plethora of options at forward he would be a must play. He’s a strong option in all formats. Danny Welbeck ($9,800) is ice cold; he’s a contrarian play at forward, but at that salary there are many other options I’d rather use. Of course, this could be the day he explodes for two or three.
Anderlecht has some really good young talent, but it’s hard to suggest choosing any player in this one. Gohi Cyriac ($3,000) is a minimum play that should start at forward as a lone striker, while Andy Najar ($6,100) is on the rise and might look at this as a chance to further make his name towards a move to an English club this winter or summer. Dennis Praet ($5,000) might play a more defensive role than normal, but could surprise and is a good choice at that price in a GPP format.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Galatasaray
Let’s get this out of the way; Dortmund have been poor in league play. Coming off a loss to Bayern Munich this past weekend that sees them in a relegation spot in the Bundesliga; they are the opposite of Juventus, who have ruled Serie A, flying high domestically but have been poor in the Champions League. So Dortmund will look again to push aside their woes again as they host Galatasaray, and a number of Dortmund options will be in heavy use on Tuesday.
In net, Roman Weidenfeller ($4,700) is akin to Szczesny. He’s a huge favorite at home against a big underdog, but you can save a few hundred dollars and roster Szczesny or another option to come, Iker Casillas. The player with perhaps the biggest ownership rates next to Cristiano Ronaldo, perhaps even coming close to the Madrid attacker is Lukasz Piszczek ($2,000). Unless you’re completely contrarian, there really is no reason to leave the Polish right back out of your roster. Even if Dortmund gives up a goal in this one, Piszczek gets forward enough to give you points from other categories to justify his minimum salary. At best, you get mid-teens points wise. At worst, he’ll still get five, six, seven points.
Another two relative value plays remain in Dortmund’s midfield, but keep an eye out for lineup changes by Jurgen Klopp. Patrick Aubameyang ($7,800), if he starts, is a must play but some reports from Germany have Ciro Immobile ($6,900) starting at forward. Both are excellent options, but Aubameyang fits a midfield role at DK and will be heavily owned. In addition, you have mid-level cost choices in Kevin Grosskreutz ($6,800) and Shinji Kagawa ($7,500), but Kagawa’s use behind the strikers have him the better option. Want a minimum throw of the dice? Ilkay Gundogan’s ($3,000) defensive role won’t see him go forward all that much, but at that price tag he has upside and could play off nicely.
Lastly, you have Marco Reus ($8.000) as an alternative to Aubameyang. After a long term injury that saw him miss the World Cup, Reus is red hot. You can use both Reus and Aubameyang in any lineup, alongside Sanchez or Ronaldo. Both? It’s doable.
Gala? Look elsewhere.
Malmo vs. Atletico Madrid
The outlier to the rest of this slate is Atletico being huge, huge favorites in Sweden against Malmo. But Atletico’s getting more and more pricey by the matchday, especially in relative terms in the back. Moya ($5,300) in goal is the most expensive keeper on the day, and while a win/clean sheet bonus double is pretty achievable I can’t see paying up for him when others are cheaper. It’s the same with defenders; both Juanfran ($4,700) and Guilherme Siqueira ($4,300) are excellent players and are rock solid. But you can go elsewhere for cheaper to load up in midfield and forward. For Malmo, Robin Olsen ($3,200) may be a useful punt play in goal in GPP formats. He’ll see a lot of action and Malmo might frustrate Atletico at home.
Atletico’s midfield won people a good amount of money last time around; prices have not moved on Arda Turan ($6,000) while Koke ($7,000) rose but the midfielder is still very much affordable. Turan is still my favorite option of the two despite Koke’s output last game at home against Malmo because of hs more advanced role, plus you save that extra grand. Up top, you have Mario Mandzukic ($8,900) and probably Antoine Griezmann ($6,400) as strong plays. However, it’s hard to justify using Mandzukic when Reus or Immobile are cheaper, or you can spend up on the top tier guys like Sanchez or one of the Madrid forwards.
Juventus vs. Olympiacos
Juve has really, really struggled in the Champions League—but despite two straight 1-0 losses (at Atletico and Olympiacos) the Old Lady (real nickname for Juventus) still can go through into the knockout stages—but it has to begin Tuesday night at home in Turin.
Juve are strong favorites, but use on Tuesday will be contrarian by players because of their collective salaries. Like Moya, Gianluigi Buffon ($5,000) is a strong play if you want a win/clean sheet bonus, but there again are cheaper options to save some money. His opposite number Roberto ($3,100) is a cheap play in net along the lines of Olsen before, but I’d rather use him instead of the Olympiacos keeper because Malmo is at home. At defender, there are a pair of strong plays in Stephane Lichtsteiner ($3,700) and Arthur Masuaku ($3,200) — both get forward regularly, but I’d go for the former because of the greater chance of a clean sheet in this one.
Midfield has two decent options in Olympiacos’ Pajtim Kasami ($5,400), who under the radar has 42 points in three Champions League play while Juve wingback Kwadwo Asamoah ($5,500) is a strong play if he can overcome an injury received on the weekend. The rest of the plays in the midfield just don’t have that much of a high ceiling (Pogba, Pirlo, Vidal) and are purely GPP plays going against popular options.
At forward, you have three choices. To be honest, Carlos Tevez ($8,200) has personally cost me in the last two times I’ve used the diminutive Argentinean. But when Juventus rule the roost, the attack goes through and is highlighted by Tevez. The upside is there for 20, 30 points—but like Mandzukic, it’s hard to go with either over Reus. Juventus have to win; Tevez and likely strike partner Fernando Llorente ($5,500) will need to play well. For those basement bargain shopping, DK has kept Olympiacos lone striker Konstantinos Mitroglou ($3,000) and he will be heavily used, especially in GPP lineups.
Basel vs. Ludogorets
Kudos to those of you not skipping this to Madrid/Liverpool. This should be very tight and value is in the goalkeeper spot because of clean sheet bonuses. Basel’s Tomas Vaclik ($3,700) is a pretty good option, and Ludogorets’ Vlad Stoyanov ($3,600) is not a bad play either. I’d go with Vaclik because of the home favorite and the over/under in this one, and over cheaper options like Roberto and Olsen. Either go top shelf or Vaclik, especially since Basel could go second behind Real Madrid in their group if they win and Madrid does as well.
Otherwise, it’s punt and pray in this one. With Marco Streller out, Breel Embolo ($3,000) should start for Basel up top—he’s an interesting alternative to Mitroglou. He and Roman Bezjak ($3,000) are bound for your flex spot or not at all.
Real Madrid vs. Liverpool
Lastly, you have Madrid, on fire and at home, against a clearly struggling Liverpool team that got trounced when the two teams met last month at Anfield. The Bernabeu isn’t going to welcome Liverpool with open arms.
First of all, let’s focus on what small options are viable for Liverpool in this one. Simon Mignolet ($3,300) is tailor made for those who like to put together a GPP lineup that you hope Mignolet stands on his head and gets a bonus for a clean sheet or one allowed paired with numerous saves. If you go that way, good for you—you’re much braver than me with your bankroll. I won’t suggest going with any defender in red, and Raheem Sterling ($8,100) is tough to justify despite his talent and explosive output on the right night. Daniel Sturridge traveled with Liverpool to Spain, and if the forward was to start at $10,000 he really is not useable because of that salary and the opposition. Add into the mix reports that Steven Gerrard may sit out to get rested, and this could get ugly unless Liverpool deliver a superb defensive performance.
Then we turn to Madrid—huge favorites in this one. Iker Casillas ($4,500) is in the same boat at Moya, Buffon, Weidenfeller and Szczesny. He’s cheaper than all but Szczesny, but Casillas has the best opposition of the group—that ceiling gets ruined with one moment of brilliance from Sterling or Mario Balotelli, one mistake from a defender that gives Liverpool and Steven Gerrard a penalty. But he has a better backline than Szczesny, and Madrid has played a lot better than Weidenfeller’s Dortmund. It’s a tough decision to make.
The remainder of your Real options is familiar, high priced names. Marcelo ($5,100) is a bit too expensive for my tastes in comparison to the rest of the defender pool, but no one can question his floor or ceiling. Gareth Bale ($10,900) is expected to play on Tuesday, but keep an eye on the starting lineup. At that price, it’s tough to spend up at forward and wedge Bale in, especially coming off injury. Even James Rodriguez ($9,100), who in Bale’s absence has done really well, is difficult if you want two high-end names at forward. The rest of Madrid’s midfielders are cheaper, but their ceilings are limited—you really need a guy like Isco ($4,800), Toni Kroos ($6,200) or Luka Modric ($6,000) to score in order to achieve value.
In attack, you will have to pay up for one or both of Cristiano Ronaldo ($14,000) or Karim Benzema ($10,500). Madrid pretty much have their group sewn up, and with a win can guarantee and top seed for the knockout round, and there’s a showing off tendency from the Merengues. They want to win. They want to win with style and to run it up a little. Even Chicharito Hernandez ($5,100) is a viable option even if he does not start. Ronaldo’s price tag might scare a few off, but his ownership numbers are going to be high in this one.