Champions League Preview: Tuesday
Tuesday gives us only six matches on DK for their Champions League slate, with two early starts that sees Bate Borisov, CSKA Moscow, Porto and Roma not available for inclusion as well. And off we go…
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Athletic Bilbao
All of our favorite Ukrainians (and the Brazilians that are brave/rich enough to play there) hosts Bilbao; Shakhtar will know ahead of time if Porto will have won in order to keep pace or even take the lead in their group. Prices ahead have steadily risen for Donetsk’s starting 11 one again, but all the big names can be fit into your lineup, be it cash or GPP. Bilbao has no chance of advancing, and this could get ugly—it’s just bringing the right names into your lineup that will be key.
A strong home favorite, lots of entrants on Tuesday will start their lineup by inserting Andriy Pyatov ($5,000). Those choices will be made with a lot of confidence, and for good reason. Bilbao has scored just once in four Champions League games, and Pyatov is perhaps the best bet, or at least co-favorite, to get you that win/clean sheet combo pack. Add to the mix the eminently affordable defensive pair of Diego Srna ($4,500) and Vyacheslav Shevchuk ($4,300), and at the very least a rather secure for a cash game lineup spin is ready made.
Also affordable are midfielders Alex Teixeira ($6,800) and Douglas Costa ($6,100); the ceiling is somewhat limited for both, but the floor is there at 7-12 points. Teixeira has scored in each of the last three games, and is the better bet to use than Costa. And lastly, the Brazilian hammer that is Luiz Adriano ($9,200) – who has the higher ownership rate on Tuesday, Adriano or Leo Messi? My money is on the former. I can’t see Bilbao putting up much of a fight in this one. Forward Aduriz ($5,300) is injured and could miss out; even if he starts, he’s a GPP play at the very least.
Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich
Bayern visit Man City in a must, MUST win for the hosts in order to advance to the knockout stages of the Champions League. City will know the result of the Roma/CSKA Moscow match ahead of time, hoping for a draw ahead of a trip to Roma on the final matchday. It will be interesting to see what kind of lineup Pep Guardiola puts out—rest a few players, even with the German winter break on the horizon, or put the sword to City?
Let’s go over your Bayern options first. It’s a tricky proposition using Manuel Neuer ($4,800) against City—I think there’s a really good chance Bayern wins at City, and furthermore, Bayern could shut down City, one of the few teams that could do so at the Etihad. But Neuer is a GPP option—if you’re going to spend up at keeper, you’re going with Pyatov or Barca’s keeper. Neuer’s the best in the world, but chances are City get one at home if only chasing a win or an equalizer late.
There are a couple cheap entry points into Bayern’s defensive core— Juan Bernat ($3,700), if he starts, is an excellent play. So is Rafinha ($3,800), and at times both could see time going forward in a more midfield role in Guardiola’s fluid setup. Want a really cheap Bayern midfielder? With Phillipe Lahm and David Alaba out, Sebastian Rode ($3,000) is your way in. The ceiling is really low as a deep lying midfielder, but it’s Bayern—everybody will have their chances.
All three top shelf Bayern options in midfield are mighty tempting. All three of Arjen Robben ($9,300), Franck Ribery ($8.700) and Mario Gotze ($8.500) may not start but any could put up big numbers in this one. None are cheap, and Robben is a bit boom or bust, but if you have the salary to put one or both in your lineup, do so. Even Xherdan Shaqiri ($7,700) could but a really nice play if he starts behind the lead striker instead of Thomas Muller ($9,900). Muller or Robert Lewandowski ($9,400) should lead the line. Either one plus Adriano is a nice way to go.
City? Their prices, aside from one, are pretty depressed with this matchup instead of a Premier League DFS game slate. For me, even at a lower price, I can’t suggest starting anyone aside from Sergio Aguero ($12,300) and even then, it’s a GPP option. City will attack, and attack in numbers—they will be ripe for counterattacks. Starting Joe Hart would be a Hail Mary attempt to rack up save numbers, and all defenders are hands off. If David Silva ($7,200) appears out of the blue (pun intended) to start, I’m still fading him. Maybe Frank Lampard ($4,100) if a) he starts and b) you’re spending elsewhere. Lampard loves big games, and he’s a scorer from midfield.
APOEL vs. Barcelona
Ok, first of all. APOEL? Nope. Nobody. No one.
Barca is through to the knockout stages, but they need to match PSG’s result on Tuesday in order to make the last group game between the two teams (at Barca’s Nou Camp) meaningful. So it’ll be the same starting 11 that we’ve seen in the Champions League for the most part of the last four—meaning a) you’ll have to pay up for limited upside for a keeper, b) the outside backs are expensive but with high ceilings, and c) the front three all can have big days out.
Marc-Andre Ter Stegen ($5,300) is the anointed starter in Europe for Luis Enrique, and any hope of him reaching his ceiling is highly dependent on a clean sheet. It probably happens, but I’ll be saving $300 by using Pyatov instead. That or you’re paying down and hoping for someone standing on his head like David de Gea did on the weekend. Dani Alves ($5,200) and Jordi Alba ($4,900), short of being surprisingly being rested in this one, are two of the top defender options you have—and you’ll have to pay for that. Their ceilings seem to be around 12-14 points without a goal, and it’s hard to see spending up on one or both when there’s so much talent in midfield and attack to spend on. It’s a strong play, but that’s money you won’t be able to spend elsewhere. If Alba is sat for Adriano ($3,100) at left back, that is much more palatable.
Barca’s midfield is a non-entity when it comes to DFS. They don’t rack up crosses and goals are likely to come from the front three, and not them. I can’t see spending on Ivan Rakitic or Xavi on the small chance they score. The front three’s collective salaries have dropped a decent amount— Messi by $1,000, Neymar $1,900 and Suarez $2,200. All that saving comes in front of a really positive match for the Barcelona front three—the only risk is an early substitution off in a blow-out. If that takes place, you have to hope your guy strikes. It’s really hard stacking two of the three at your forward slot, so choose wisely. Messi’s in better form, but Neymar may be the better bet especially after Messi got his in league play on the weekend.
PSG vs. Ajax
As mentioned earlier, PSG is fighting will Barcelona for top spot in its group, and the prize at the end of the group stage for that is avoiding the other big boys of Europe, the Bayerns and Madrids of the world. It’s important for PSG to hold serve, as it were, with a win at home against Ajax. The visitors don’t have a lot to play for, per se—really, would you want in the Europa League? PSG are big favorites, and should see a lot of ownership on Tuesday.
But there have been some changes for PSG since their last European match day, chief of which is the return of Zlatan Ibrahimović ($11,700). His return has seen Edison Cavani ($10,600) return to the bench for a sub’s role—there really is no high end functioning lineup PSG can put out with both in it. Add into the mix some personal issues between the pair, and Ibra wins out. He’s a solid play, but that price tag gives me a little hesitance. I think there’s a lot more value in who starts on each side of Ibrahimović on Tuesday. Both Javier Pastore ($6,700), classified by DK as a midfielder) and Ezequiel Lavezzi ($6,300) scored for PSG this past weekend with Zlatan as the lead striker. Both are interesting plays, especially Pastore because of his midfield status. The same would stand for Lucas Moura ($6,300) if he starts in place of either.
PSG is without several midfield starts, so Blaise Matuidi ($5,700) may be surrounded by minimum value plays Clement Chantome and Adrien Rabiot. If either start, both can give you salary relief. Rabiot is the more offensively leaning of the pair, for what it’s worth. Any options PSG can give you for the back three are relatively expensive, but useable if you spend low in a spot or two. Salvatore Sirigu ($5,500) is the most expensive keeper on the slate; if I was spending up, I’d go with Ter Stegen, Pyatov, Neuer or whomever starts for Chelsea in net. More tempting are PSG’s outside backs; Gregory van der Wiel ($4,600) is one of the top plays at defense because of his ability and presence going forward for PSG. While van der Wiel is an option in all formats, David Luiz ($5,000) is a GPP play because of a low floor as a central defender. However, because of his scoring ability on dead balls Luiz has a chance to score. But with Zlatan back, chances of taking free kicks went from good odds to very, very low.
Ajax has low priced GPP options, but I can’t suggest any with confidence. Guys like Lucas Andersen ($3,200), Anwar El Ghazi ($4,300) and Lasse Schone ($5,200) are all talented players, but any return of investment for your use of them is tied to a goal scored. It’s tough to use any unless you really feel strong PSG is there for the taking, and you want to be contrarian.
Schalke vs. Chelsea
Both teams have a stake in winning this game; Chelsea clinches advancement and the top spot in the group with a win, while Schalke stays ahead of Sporting Lisbon no matter what happens in the other group match today. Chelsea should have all hands on deck, with their preferred starting lineup with a couple of slight question marks: Andre Schurrle ($7,000) or Willian ($5,400) in attack? Cesar Azpilicueta ($3,700) or Filipe Luis ($3,600) at left back?
It looks like Thibaut Courtois ($4,500) will start in goal for Chelsea, who are slight road favorites in this one. That price is the lowest you’re likely to see for Courtois for some time, and is very tempting to use. If you want to save, for example, $500, by using Courtois instead of Shakhtar’s Pyatov, especially in a GPP makes a lot of sense. However, I can’t see ownership rates being really low on Courtois. I’d avoid using Chelsea’s defenders on Tuesday; rostering either Azpilicueta or Luis has a low floor attached, especially with no clean sheet. Branislav Ivanovic ($4,400) hasn’t been putting up decent DFS numbers as of late, but he hit double digits on the weekend for the right time in a month. He likely won’t be highly owned, but Ivanovic is useable in all formats because of his reliability. But others have a lot higher of a ceiling on Tuesday for around the same price point: Srna, Shevchuk, van der Wiel, Sporting’s Jefferson among them.
Eden Hazard ($9,500) is the most costly of all midfield options on Tuesday, and for good reason. Aside from Diego Costa, he’s the best bet DFS wise when it comes to Chelsea’s squad. Takes free kicks, penalties, and he carries a very high floor and ceiling. He’s useable in all formats. Oscar ($7,400) and Schurrle both are GPP options, but their ceiling is mostly reliant on picking up a goal to their name. Oscar, by far, is the better bet, especially in cash games, of earning his salary. Lastly, we have Diego Costa ($11,300). Chelsea’s point of attack scored over the weekend, and seems to be fully healthy. Costa is rosterable in all game formats, and is fourth most expensive at the forward slot Tuesday. I’d use him before Aguero, but within a thousand dollars each way you have Ibrahimović and Neymar, and even lower you have both Bayern forwards, Suarez and Luiz Adriano. Costa’s ownership might be a bit low, even with Chelsea’s standing in most DFS players on DK as week in, week out presence.
If you want to go contrarian on Tuesday without being foolish, Schalke could be your way in. Schalke has a better chance than, say, Ajax does on the road. However, any useable option from the hosts should only come from a midfield or forward spot. I’m not touching keeper Ralf Fahrmann or any defender from Schalke, affordable as they may be. Even Dennis Aogo ($3,500), who likely will be used as a midfielder in this one, is out of play. This may belie the output Aogo has gotten in Schalke’s last two games in Europe (18 and 16 points); simply due to the fact the matches they played against Sporting were open, attacking games. Chelsea will not give Schalke that kind of game.
Julian Draxler remains out injured, so you have Kevin Prince-Boateng ($6,500) and Chinedu Obasi ($5,200) in the mix. Both could achieve a really low floor, and that leaves forwards Klass-Jan Huntelaar ($7,600) and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting ($7,000) up top. Huntelaar was held scoreless in Schalke’s last European match and his goalscoring ability is very tied to the service he receives from his teammates. If Schalke doesn’t have possession, or the service isn’t there because Chelsea chokes it off, Huntelaar, meet floor. He’s a solid GPP play at that salary, but that matchup scares me. Better off using….
Sporting Lisbon vs. Maribor
Perhaps the best play, the best combination of salary and opportunity on the day, and I can’t believe I’m going here: Nani ($7,600). Sporting are huge favorites at home, and his move back to Portugal has kickstarted Nani’s career. Sporting have everything to play for in this; with a win, they will likely vault over Schalke in the standings and their trip to Chelsea in the group’s final matches will be against a side that’s already clinched top spot in the group and might rest players.
In fact, using any of Sporting’s front three may be highly successful at the end of Tuesday afternoon. Islam Slimani ($6,200) scored for Sporting against Schalke in their last European match, and is the lead striker in Sporting’s formation. Also, whoever gets the other wing between Andre Carillo ($3,000) or Carlos Mane ($5,400) could give you a lot of value at a flex spot, especially if it’s Carillo. Adrien Silva ($5,200) has provided a couple of nice showings in the midfield lately as well.
The backline is in line, but I’d rather use Pyatov instead of Sporting’s Rui Patricio ($5,200) in net. Both Jefferson ($4,300) and Cedric ($4,000) rosterable in all formats—an easy way to go on Tuesday is to stack either Shakhtar or Sporting in the back or mix and match. If you do the latter, it’s a question of whom to pair Pyatov with between Srna, Shevchuk and Jefferson.